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Matt Walsh
MELBOURNE, Australia — American Madison Keys will meet two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka in the Australian Open final on Saturday, after Keys shocked world No. 2 Iga Swiatek to win their semifinal Thursday night in three engrossing sets 5-7, 6-1, 7-6 (8).
Coming into their clash, Swiatek had not dropped a set, had “bageled” three opponents and had been on court for just 5 hours and 59 minutes. The No. 2 seed had lost just 14 games for the tournament. In contrast, Keys had played 8 hours and 43 minutes, and had lost 59 games.
To illustrate Swiatek’s dominance in Melbourne, those 14 games lost were tied for the fourth fewest by any woman en route to the semifinals since the Australian Open transitioned to hard court in 1988.
So just how did America’s No. 19 seed get past the might of Swiatek, who looked unbeatable to this point of the tournament, and the most likely to dethrone dual reigning champion Sabalenka in the final?
Keys pressured Swiatek’s service games
Swiatek has been used to things going her way on serve this tournament. Coming into the semifinal, Swiatek had been broken only twice in five matches and had been utterly dominant on her serve.
In fact, Swiatek had held 31 consecutive service games dating back to her first-round match against Katerina Siniakova, meaning she was never on the back foot on her serve, cruising through the early rounds without much pressure to hold.
But in their semifinal, Keys put the onus on Swiatek to earn her service games from the outset. The American broke the five-time Slam winner in the first game of the match, and then twice more in the opener, forcing Swiatek to play a set beyond the 5-5 scoreline for the first time in the tournament. While the world No. 2 edged Keys 7-5 in the opening set, it had Swiatek on notice.
And in the second set, Keys’ pressure paid off. She raced to a 5-0 lead, eventually taking the set 6-1 on the back of powerful groundstrokes on the return game. The American clobbered nine winners to Swiatek’s three. Swiatek’s point win rate on her first serves in the second set was a paltry 38%. On her second serve? 0%. Keys went on the attack and it worked superbly, winning 14 of the 22 points played on Swiatek’s serve in that set.
Keys stayed calm in the big, clutch moments
In a seesawing third set, both players were holding serve with relative ease. That is until the eighth and ninth games of the set, with Swiatek serving down 3-4. Keys had a 15-40 advantage and two break points up her sleeve, but Swiatek, the five-time Slam winner, reeled her in. Clutch.
But whatever Swiatek did, Keys was able to match — and more. In the very next game, Swiatek raced to a 0-40 lead, a break meaning she would serve for the match. But Keys rattled off point after point, saving a total of four break point chances to hold and keep the match on serve.
And in Keys’ next service game, déjà vu. A 0-40 hole; one from which she wouldn’t recover, giving the crucial break to Swiatek thanks to a blunder at the net with a poor approach.
While Keys’ poorly thought-out approach of the net was a major error, Swiatek squandered a match point opportunity in her very next service game at 6-5, later double-faulting to send the deciding set to a 10-point tie-break.
Even that had ebbs and flows, but Keys again came up clutch at the end while Swiatek couldn’t match. The American served an ace to level the breaker at 8-8 and sent down another thundering serve Swiatek couldn’t handle for 9-8. It brought up Keys’ first match point, and her first lead in the tiebreak, and Swiatek couldn’t pull out a save on her serve, sending a forehand long and Keys into her second major final.
“[I’m] really proud of myself for being able to stay in that. Obviously being up in the third and feeling like I was so close to the finish line, losing my serve, and then being able to just kind of stay as close as I could in that tiebreaker until the end, just really proud of myself for that match,” Keys said after the match.
Keys knows she can hang on if it’s uncomfortable
Speaking in her news conference after the win, Keys mentioned her 2017 US Open final loss to Sloane Stephens.
She said it was a match she has replayed in her head constantly, but was also the catalyst for a shift in her mentality toward nerves and big moments.
“I think the big thing for me has just been knowing that there are going to be a lot of moments where I’m uncomfortable in the match. It’s going to be stressful. You have thousands of people watching you. You might not be playing your best tennis,” she said. “But instead of trying to shy away from that and search for settling or comfort or anything, just being okay that that’s the situation, and you can also play tennis through that, I think is something that I’ve been working really hard on.
“I think that’s probably one of the biggest lessons that I can take from that US Open final and just be OK with knowing that I’m probably going to be uncomfortable 99% of the time that I’m on the court, and that’s okay, and I can still also play tennis through that.”
Keys will face Sabalenka in the women’s final Saturday.