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Jamison Hensley, ESPN Staff Writer
A BEAMING JOSH ALLEN stepped onto the stage of the 2018 NFL draft and slipped on a gray baseball cap with one word on it: Billieve.
“I’m going to make them look like they’re the smartest people out there,” said Allen, after the Buffalo Bills moved up five spots to select him No. 7 overall in a swap of picks with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
About 2½ hours later, the Baltimore Ravens pulled off one of the biggest surprises of the draft — even shocking some in their draft room. After drafting tight end Hayden Hurst at No. 25, the Ravens moved back into the first round by sending three picks to the Philadelphia Eagles to take quarterback Lamar Jackson.
A stone-faced Jackson, who was the final selection of the draft’s first night, looked directly at the camera and said: “They’re going to get a Super Bowl out of me. Believe that.”
Both Allen and Jackson had their doubters leading up to the draft. NFL evaluators saw them as having the highest ceilings. But there were concerns about Allen’s accuracy and questions about Jackson becoming effective at throwing in the pocket.
“The skill set was there for both,” ESPN senior draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. said. “They were unique and I get that. That’s why people were misevaluating what they could be in the NFL, because they weren’t what the NFL was used to seeing.”
Allen and Jackson have not only established themselves as two of the game’s best players, but they’ve changed the course of two teams in the process.
In the five seasons before landing their franchise quarterbacks, the Bills and Ravens hovered around .500 with one playoff bid apiece. In the seven seasons since, Allen and Jackson have dodged pass rushers, run through defenses and delivered jaw-dropping touchdown passes to lead their teams to a combined 146 wins and nine division titles while tallying 58 losses.
And in Sunday’s AFC divisional round (6:30 p.m. ET, CBS), one will advance to within a game of a Super Bowl and the other will be left waiting at least another year to chase that elusive championship. Leading up to this showdown, Jackson acknowledged he will be forever linked with Allen because of that fateful night in the 2018 draft.
“When we’re older, we’ll probably laugh about it,” Jackson said. “But right now, it’s serious. For real.”
BEFORE THE 2018 draft started, the Bills thought they had a deal in place to move up and get Allen — until they didn’t.
Buffalo had previously agreed to jump from the No. 12 pick to the Denver Broncos‘ No. 5 slot. But then-Broncos GM John Elway said he would only make the move if the player he wanted was off the board. When the Broncos were on the clock, pass rusher Bradley Chubb was available, and they nixed the trade.
Bills general manager Brandon Beane quickly pivoted and completed a trade with the Buccaneers to move to No. 7. According to draft trade charts, the Bills overspent to get Allen when they sent their first-round pick (No. 12) in addition to two second-round selections to Tampa Bay for its No. 7 pick and a seventh-rounder.
“We got criticized a little bit for how much we gave up for Josh,” Beane said at last year’s NFL combine. “And I’m like, ‘If he doesn’t work out, I’m not going to be here anyway. And if he does work out, nobody is going to give a s—.'”
Allen’s biggest drawback entering the draft was his 56% completion rate at Wyoming.
Beane watched every throw Allen made in his final two years in college, tracking the catchable balls and the number of times he eluded sacks. In pre-draft meetings with Allen, Beane came away believing Allen had what it took to be a franchise quarterback. The key was cleaning up Allen’s mechanics.
The Bills paired Allen with offensive coordinators who have helped him blossom, from Brian Daboll to Ken Dorsey to Joe Brady. Buffalo wanted Allen to be comfortable and have cohesion with its playcallers, which partly played into promoting the team’s quarterbacks coaches (Dorsey and Brady) into the coordinator spot.
The most significant investment around Allen came from acquiring wide receiver Stefon Diggs in 2020 — now with the Houston Texans — in exchange for draft picks. The Bills have also used their first- and second-round picks on tight end Dalton Kincaid, right guard O’Cyrus Torrence and wide receiver Keon Coleman in the past two drafts, as well as signing both starting tackles to extensions this year.
To help develop his throwing motion over the years, Allen has worked with Chris Hess, owner of Biometrik, a movement analysis company. Hess has digitally mapped all of Allen’s throws since 2020.
Allen has gone from completing 52.8% of his passes in his rookie season to connecting on 65.2% of his throws over the past five years. In 2024, he completed 63.6% of his passes.
“You name it, he’s in command of our offense,” Bills coach Sean McDermott said. “And so when you look up the word quarterback in the dictionary or what have you, that’s how he’s playing. He’s very comfortable in the pocket it seems, and he’s seeing the game extremely well right now.”
FOR THE RAVENS, it seemed as if the first day of the 2018 draft was over. Baltimore had selected Hurst, and the team celebrated getting a young target in the passing game for quarterback Joe Flacco.
Some team officials had started leaving the draft room, at which point longtime Ravens public relations chief Kevin Byrne asked top personnel executives Eric DeCosta and Ozzie Newsome if they were ready to head downstairs to speak to reporters about their first-round pick.
“No, I think we’re going to wait,” DeCosta said.
Ten days earlier, Baltimore had brought in Jackson for a secret pre-draft meeting. DeCosta also reached out to the Eagles GM Howie Roseman a few days before the draft. Philadelphia was short on picks with six but held the 32nd selection in the first round, and DeCosta knew the Eagles would be willing to trade the pick to acquire more.
Back in the Ravens’ draft room, no one — not even coach John Harbaugh or owner Steve Biscotti sitting across the table — knew what was transpiring when DeCosta looked at Newsome, who suggested, “Why don’t you call Howie?”
Baltimore agreed to send two picks in that year’s draft (second- and fourth-round selections) and a second-rounder in 2019 to Philadelphia in exchange for the Eagles’ first- and fourth-round selections in 2018. When it was Baltimore’s turn to make the final pick of the first round, DeCosta announced the Ravens were back on the clock.
“And nobody could believe it,” DeCosta said.
In a pre-draft meeting, Harbaugh assured his staff they could build an offense in which Jackson would succeed. The offensive coordinator at the time was Marty Mornhinweg, who had been the playcaller for dual-threat quarterbacks Michael Vick, Donovan McNabb and Steve Young. The assistant head coach was Greg Roman, the former San Francisco 49ers offensive coordinator who coached Colin Kaepernick.
Baltimore constructed an offense heavy on run-pass option plays, highlighting Jackson’s speed and elusiveness. But the plan was Jackson would run less and throw more as the seasons progressed.
To upgrade Jackson’s supporting cast over the next seven years, the Ravens used two first-round picks on wide receivers Zay Flowers and Rashod Bateman, a first-rounder on Pro Bowl center Tyler Linderbaum and a second-rounder on right tackle Roger Rosengarten. This offseason, Baltimore landed the ultimate pairing for Jackson when it signed running back Derrick Henry.
All of this led to what the Ravens had thought all along. This season, Jackson relied more on his arm than his legs. The two-time NFL MVP recorded his first 4,000-yard passing season and produced another historic benchmark: He became the first player to throw for more than 40 touchdown passes and fewer than five interceptions in a single season.
At the start of this season’s training camp, Harbaugh said, “The vision that we have together is that Lamar Jackson is going to become and be known and be recognized as the greatest quarterback ever to play in the history of the National Football League.”
JACKSON AND ALLEN are the favorites to win the NFL MVP award this season.
Quarterbacking two of the highest-scoring offenses in the league — the Bills rank second in offensive points scored per game (29.5) and the Ravens third (29.3) — they have established themselves as two of the top players from the 2018 draft.
But for Jackson, that’s where the connection ends.
“I don’t really chill with people [in] the offseason, especially not other quarterbacks,” Jackson said. “Don’t get me wrong, there’s no problem or nothing like that, but we’re competing with each other. I’m trying to beat you; I’m not trying to be your friend.”
The debate on the NFL’s top quarterback this season is a heated one. But there’s mutual respect between the two. This week, Jackson complimented Allen for his strong arm and his “uniqueness” to make plays when they break down.
Before their Week 4 matchup, Allen described Jackson as “an inspiration to a lot of people.” He pointed out Jackson’s resilience and work ethic to win two NFL MVP awards.
“Guys around the league, they see that,” Allen said. “He’s really changed the way that I think guys play the game.”
Allen and Jackson are 2-2 against each other — including the playoffs — and both have experienced low points in those meetings.
In a 2020 divisional game in Buffalo, Jackson threw a pick-six and was knocked out of a 17-3 loss because of a concussion. Earlier this season in Baltimore, Allen was held to 180 yards passing in a 35-10 loss, his worst margin of defeat in three years.
Allen and Jackson also share postseason disappointment. In the playoffs, Allen has a 6-5 record and Jackson a 3-4 mark.
Each has played in one AFC Championship Game with only frustration to show for it. In 2020, Allen lost to the Kansas City Chiefs in a 38-24 shootout, ending any chance of a comeback by throwing an interception with two minutes left. Last season, Jackson and the Ravens fell to the Chiefs 17-10 after getting picked off in the end zone in the fourth quarter.
On Sunday, they will fight for another shot at a conference championship game.
“Beane and Sean McDermott believed in Josh Allen. Ozzie Newsome and Eric DeCosta and John Harbaugh believed in Lamar Jackson,” Kiper said. “They’re both big-time winners.”
Kiper added, “What else do [Allen and Jackson] have in common? Neither one has been to a Super Bowl.”
NFL Nation reporter Alaina Getzenberg contributed to this report.