On New Year’s Eve, Penn State became the first team to lock up a spot in a College Football Playoff semifinal when it beat Boise State 31-14 in the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl. Texas needed double overtime to escape a gritty Arizona State team 39-31 on New Year’s Day and advance to the Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, where it will face Ohio State on Jan. 10 at 7:30 p.m. ET.
Penn State, which has yet to trail in a CFP game, will face the winner of Notre Dame–Georgia in the Capital One Orange Bowl on Jan. 9 at 7:30 p.m. ET. The College Football Playoff Quarterfinal at the Allstate Sugar Bowl was postponed until 4 p.m. ET on Thursday after a deadly truck attack in New Orleans that killed at least 15 and injured dozens more.
While Penn State awaits its opponent, here’s an early look at the semifinal matchup between Texas and Ohio State. — Heather Dinich
When: Jan. 10, 7:30 p.m. ET. TV: ESPN
What we learned in the quarterfinals: Texas has gone through quite an identity crisis over the past six weeks on offense. The Longhorns went from rushing domination in their final two regular-season games, to not being able to run in the SEC championship, back to rushing domination in the first round against Clemson, back to struggling on the ground against Arizona State. So which Texas rushing attack will show up against Ohio State? There is no doubt that Texas will need a bigger rushing effort to beat the Buckeyes. Perhaps offensive tackle Cameron Williams will be healthy enough to play and will help make a difference. Either way, we learned that Texas still has work to do to put together a complete offensive performance.
X factor: TE Gunnar Helm. Texas likes to utilize its tight ends in the offense Steve Sarkisian runs, and Helm came up huge in the win over Arizona State, with three catches for 56 yards — and the game-winning touchdown in overtime. Helm was big in the opening-round win over Clemson, too, with six catches for 77 yards and a score. Sarkisian praised him leading into the Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl, saying, “The multiplicity of the things that the tight end has to do in our systems make him extremely valuable. When you have a good one, I think that that makes our lives a lot easier from a playcaller perspective.”
How Texas wins: Texas has been ranked the No. 1 defense in the country for the bulk of the season for a reason, and we saw that for large swaths of its win over Arizona State. The Longhorns will have to continue to set the tone up front and get after Will Howard to make him uncomfortable. Michigan provided the blueprint for winning in November, when it dominated the Buckeyes on both lines of scrimmage. Texas certainly has the potential to do that with its defensive and offensive fronts. But the Longhorns will have to absolutely be better on their offensive line to have any shot to win. They were overwhelmed at times by a smaller Arizona State defensive front. — Andrea Adelson
What we learned in the quarterfinals: No one can stop Jeremiah Smith, and by extension, the Ohio State offense. Against an Oregon team that defeated them in October, the Buckeyes came out of the gates at the Rose Bowl Presented by Prudential ready to prove the Ducks didn’t have their number. Thanks to Smith, who caught five balls for 161 yards and had two touchdown receptions of 40-plus yards in the first half alone (he finished with 187 yards), Ohio State looked to be playing at a different speed, as Oregon seemed helpless on both sides of the ball. The freshman wide receiver was a blur, speeding past the Ducks’ secondary with ease while making his case for being not just the best freshman in the country — or the best wide receiver — but one of the best players in the sport. It helped that nearly every Ohio State skill player who touched the ball found gold — running back TreVeyon Henderson averaged double-digit yards per carry while adding two touchdowns, and wide receiver Emeka Egbuka added his own tremendous play in a 42-yard touchdown grab in the first half. It was all a reminder that the best version of this Buckeyes team might just be unstoppable.
X factor: RB TreVeyon Henderson. Texas’ defense might have no choice but to sell out to stop Smith, and though Smith might still get his, it will certainly open things up for other wideouts on the Buckeyes’ offense in addition to Henderson. The senior has not been particularly splashy this season, but he has been consistent. In Pasadena, however, he looked as good as ever, recording his first 100-yard game of the season. There’s no question that Ohio State’s air game is its strength, but if it can pair it with more consistent running from Henderson, the Longhorns will have a tough time on defense.
How Ohio State wins: Short of doing exactly what they did to dominate Oregon in Pasadena, the Buckeyes have a clear recipe for success now. The confidence they inherited from avenging their loss to the Ducks should be enough proof that they have the talent and execution to beat any team remaining, especially Texas. A healthy dose of Smith will be essential, and the stout defense that has had more sacks than any other playoff team so far will need to pressure Quinn Ewers, but a lot will certainly fall on Will Howard‘s shoulders. In the Rose Bowl, Howard looked as comfortable as he has looked all season long. He had no crucial mistakes, threw three touchdown passes and found Smith over and over again to much success. He’ll have to do more of the same in the Cotton Bowl. — Paolo Uggetti