Betting: Army-Navy offenses could buck historical ‘under’ trend

Among the many storied traditions in college football, perhaps none transcends the sport more than the annual Army–Navy game. Not just a contest between heated rivals, the game is a celebration of the United States’ history and traditions that entices fans across the country to choose between the nation’s land and sea military forces.

Another emerging American pastime has latched itself onto the historic rivalry. As the final game of the college football regular season and the only major game on that Saturday’s slate, Army-Navy provides a perfect window for sports bettors to get in on the action, making for one of the most popular betting games of the college football season.

In particular, betting the under on the contest has become a tradition in itself among the wagering public — and for good reason. Army, Navy and fellow service academy Air Force are famous for running option offenses, which rely on time-consuming running plays. Unlike in games against other opponents, when these programs face each other, it creates a situation where they know how to play against the option, often leading to defense winning the day.

This phenomenon led to the Army-Navy game hitting the under a remarkable 16 consecutive times from 2006 through 2021. The over then hit by five points in 2022, before the under returned with a vengeance in 2023 when the total closed at an astounding 28.5 points — the lowest total in the history of the rivalry and one of the lowest on record in any college football game. Army’s goal-line stand with a 17-9 lead and only seconds remaining preserved the under, even with an intentional safety that made it a 17-11 final.

But the 2024 edition of this game carries more intrigue than just another faceoff for the Commander-in-Chief’s Trophy. This 125th Army-Navy game could attract significantly more betting handle and test bettors’ skills because, simply put, the Black Knights and the Midshipmen were really good this season.

“This should be maybe an even more heavily bet game than it’s been in the past because of the success both teams have had this season,” DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello told ESPN. “Army joins the AAC, they win it, they beat Tulane in the conference championship… Navy finished third in the conference. It could have been Army-Navy playing in the final, then this game, then another bowl game. I mean, it would’ve been nutty.”

No. 22 Army missed out on the College Football Playoff despite an 11-1 record and a conference title, but its impressive offense, combined with a resurgence from Navy’s, caused sportsbooks to open the total for this year’s game at 41.5, which would’ve been the highest since 2017 (45).

“If you want to play tradition, yeah, go ahead and bet the under. But if you want to play based on what we’ve seen this year, maybe the under is not so much the play.”

DraftKings sportsbook director Johnny Avello

It made sense, to some degree. The Knights are averaging 32.92 points per game, their highest since 1985, while the Midshipmen’s 32.27 is good for their best since 2019. Army games were 7-5 to the over this season, but Navy took it to the next level by hitting the over at an 8-3 clip. It’s also worth noting that Navy’s rivalry game against Air Force went over the 37.5 total (a 34-7 Navy win), with Army’s game against the Falcons going under 38.5 (a 20-3 Army win).

“Our internal modeling and evaluations of both teams throughout this season determined where we opened the total, which off the bat was almost two touchdowns higher than last year’s total,” ESPN BET director of North American sports trading Adrian Horton told ESPN. “From there, team news and betting activity will play a role in movement. If the public is behind the under because of the history of Army-Navy, we’ll keep adjusting to that action.”

Caesars Sportsbook’s head of football Joey Feazel expounds that the Army-Navy game represents the consistently lone exception to the public largely betting overs, saying that “the tradition of an Army-Navy under is still going to be on the betting public’s mind,” despite the newly explosive offenses. Early action would seem to back up that notion.

ESPN BET’s total came down to 38.5 before taking a step back up to 39.5, which would still be the game’s highest since 2019 (41). Handle splits have benefited the under, with the lower side of the total attracting 29.8% of bets and 49.1% of the money at the sportsbook, with other books reporting similar action and movement.

“From our perspective, it would be Army-Navy betting the under every year and it will go as low as it will until those sharps tell you, ‘Oh, that’s too low,’ and then they bet the over,” said Feazel. “So that’s really how we’re going to treat it every year. We’re trying to get to the most coinflip game on the side, on the total, and then the result is the result. We’ve, certainly in years past, always had action on the under, and the customers did well leading up until 2022.”

Sharp action dictated movement on the spread as well. Army opened as a 2.5-point favorite and jumped to -4.5 following its victory in the AAC Championship Game, per ESPN BET. Heavy action on the Black Knights pushed them all the way to -7, at which point Caesars and ESPN BET both reported “pushback,” leading to the consensus -6.5 line.

ESPN BET noted a remarkable 95.4% of bets and 97.5% of handle on Army in the very early goings, which would explain the rapid and expansive line movement; the action has since come down to 88.9% of wagers and 90.9% of money on Army.

The Black Knights’ heavy support makes sense in the context of their remarkable season and is consistent with backing they’ve had all season. Between the beginning of September and the beginning of November, when Army was still undefeated, it commanded 9% of all wagers at ESPN BET, the most of any team team during that period. Toward the end of November, BetMGM said Army was its third-largest liability to make the playoff behind Colorado and Indiana, with the Hoosiers ultimately getting in.

Based on this season’s results, it’s a potentially favorable spot for the Knights, as they are 6-3 against the spread as favorites, though all three missed covers came within their last four games as favorites. The Midshipmen are 1-2 ATS with one outright win as underdogs in 2024.

It all makes for a more compelling Army-Navy betting menu than in year’s past, one that will challenge casual and hardcore bettors alike to consider not just which of the two service academy teams to back, but also the possibility that they may make it a high-scoring game.

“I think that the bettors will view this game differently than Army-Navy games in the past,” Avello said. “If you want to play tradition, yeah, go ahead and bet the under. But if you want to play based on what we’ve seen this year, maybe the under is not so much the play. It’s just not ‘bet an under with your eyes closed.’ I don’t think that’s the way this game’s going to be bet this year.”