Bowl game betting guide: Tips and trends to follow

The 2024 college football bowl season is finally here and bettors are gearing up for an exciting and potentially profitable stretch of games. With over 36 bowl games spread across several weeks, this unique period offers a wealth of opportunities.

Unlike the regular season, bowl games present distinct challenges and advantages, from increased public betting action to geographical factors that can significantly impact outcomes. Understanding these nuances is crucial for those looking to make informed wagers during this high-stakes finale to the college football year.

Bowl games vary significantly in importance, from crucial College Football Playoff games to less meaningful, let’s call them, exhibition matches. It’s essential to assess each team’s motivation level and player availability. Key factors to consider include:

The significance of the bowl game for each team

For some schools, reaching a bowl game for the first time in program history is a monumental achievement. This can create immense excitement and motivation for players and fans alike. Teams that haven’t made a bowl game in many years may view their appearance as a sign of program resurgence.

Teams that lost in their previous bowl game may be extra motivated to secure a win and redeem themselves. For programs on an upward trajectory, a bowl win can solidify their progress and build momentum for the future. Teams that have had exceptional regular seasons may view their bowl game as a chance to cap off a historic year. Bowl games can serve as a final hurrah for outgoing coaches or a first impression for incoming ones.

In 2023, Virginia Tech played their first bowl game against Tulane in the Military Bowl, marking their first bowl win since 2016 with a decisive 41-20 victory; this was also the first winning season under coach Brent Pry for the Hokies.

Player opt-outs

This phenomenon has grown in recent years, with several high-profile players choosing to skip their team’s bowl games to focus on their future careers.

For NFL draft prospects, the decision to opt out is often driven by the desire to avoid potential injuries that could negatively impact their draft stock. A prime example is Jameson Williams, who suffered a knee injury in the 2022 CFP National Championship, causing him to slip in the draft and miss most of his rookie season. Christian McCaffrey, Leonard Fournette, Micah Parsons, and Ja’Marr Chase are all examples of players who opted out to focus on their NFL future.

Players entering the transfer portal may also choose to opt out of bowl games to preserve their eligibility and avoid injury risks before joining a new team. The transfer portal has added another layer of complexity to bowl season, with some teams losing key contributors just before their final game.

The impact of opt-outs can be substantial. For instance, in the 2023 Orange Bowl, Florida State played without more than a dozen starters, significantly affecting the game’s outcome, losing 63-3 to Georgia.

Using social media

X (formerly Twitter) has become an invaluable tool for bettors to track last-minute injury news and opt-outs during warm-ups before college football bowl games. Following beat writers and team-specific accounts can provide real-time updates that may significantly impact betting decisions.

For instance, in 2017, Ohio State cornerback Denzel Ward’s unexpected opt-out from the Cotton Bowl was only revealed shortly before kickoff. Ward had participated in all practices leading up to the game, but raised eyebrows when he wasn’t on the field for pregame warmups. His last-minute decision was announced via a statement just before the game started.

Similarly, in 2022, North Carolina wide receiver Josh Downs opted out of the Holiday Bowl against Oregon, a decision that likely affected the game’s outcome, with UNC losing narrowly 28-27.

These examples highlight the importance of staying connected to reliable sources on X up until the moment a game begins, as player availability can change rapidly and have a substantial impact on both team performance and betting lines.

Coaching changes or interim coaches

Although you can’t quantify the impact of coaching changes, it is always worth considering. Some examples from the 2023 season include Mike Elko leaving Duke to become the head coach at Texas A&M. Associate head coach Trooper Taylor was appointed as the interim coach for Duke’s bowl game. After Jimbo Fisher was fired, defensive coordinator Elijah Robinson was named interim coach for the Aggies’ bowl game.

Oklahoma offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby departed to become the head coach at Mississippi State, leaving the Sooners to adjust their offensive play calling for their bowl game. When James Madison head coach Curt Cignetti left to become the head coach at Indiana, the team was expected to play their bowl game without a permanent head coach.

Evaluate travel impact

The location of the bowl game can significantly affect team performance. Consider the distance each team must travel, the time zone changes and even climate differences (e.g., a cold-weather team playing in a warm location).

Teams traveling long distances or adjusting to significant climate changes may be at a disadvantage.

A game in Boise, Idaho likely has different implications than a matchup in Honolulu, Hawaii, while other bowl games are set in closed stadiums.

Research team and conference performance

Analyze how teams and their conferences have performed in recent bowl games. Some conferences may consistently outperform others in bowl settings.

For example: I love backing MAC teams during bowl season, often undervalued. In 2023, the MAC finished 4-2 ATS and the conference has gone 7-4 ATS in bowl games since 2022.

Here are the ATS records in bowl games for each conference since the 2021 season.

Armed with these insights and strategies, you’re now better equipped to navigate the unpredictable waters of bowl season betting and potentially turn the holiday cheer into a profitable end to the year.