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Myron Medcalf, ESPN Staff Writer
Well, well, well.
Remember all of that stuff we said ahead of Feast Week? We’d like to issue a retraction. Because everything that seemed real a few weeks ago is questionable now.
The Maui Invitational boasted one of its strongest fields in recent memory. Yet the lasting image of that event will be of Dan Hurley, the two-time national champion, throwing a tantrum on the sidelines in multiple games.
While his emotions were the main attraction as UConn collapsed in three losses, other projected contenders — paging Duke, North Carolina and Indiana — also emerged from the Thanksgiving weekend with real concerns that could hinder them this season.
But we also have been introduced to new stars. Oregon could be a factor in the Big Ten. Yes, in college basketball, not just football. And Louisville is back? Maybe? We’ll see.
All of the action has only encouraged the brand of dialogue that sometimes leads to exaggerated overreactions. That’s why we’re here to help you sort through the post-holiday chaos.
Connecticut’s hopes of a 3-peat are finished
Between a series of outbursts and a rare three-game losing streak, it’s safe to assume Hurley won’t return to the Maui Invitational. He probably won’t even return to Hawai’i for vacation. That disastrous run halted any chatter about a potential three-peat for Connecticut, which has claimed back-to-back national titles. UConn was still good offensively, finishing 14th in adjusted offensive efficiency nationally and shooting 38% from 3 over those three days, per barttorvik.com.
But its defense was atrocious (185th nationally) in those losses to Memphis, Colorado and Dayton, who combined made 53% of their 3-point attempts. It was a concerning display for a program that’s seeking to become the first team to three-peat since UCLA‘s run from 1964 to 1973 under John Wooden. This isn’t the NBA, so the Huskies can’t make a midseason trade to fix this.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
A weird thing happened at the end of UConn’s loss to Colorado in the Maui Invitational. With seconds remaining in a one-point game, UConn’s Hassan Diarra sprinted to the right side of the floor, with the help of a few screens, as Colorado’s Julian Hammond III chased him. Colorado didn’t switch at all on those screens, as if it didn’t think Diarra posed a serious threat, and more importantly, it didn’t seem to think a potential mismatch with another UConn player would cost the Buffaloes, either.
That defensive gamble would not have been possible over the past two years, when UConn had some combination of Tristen Newton, Stephon Castle, Donovan Clingan, Cam Spencer, Adama Sanogo and Jordan Hawkins. But this isn’t that team.
One staff, per a coach who faced UConn at the Maui Invitational, even told its team that this UConn team lacked the same talent of those past groups.
“We told our team that if you take UConn off their chest, that’s not the same talent level,” said the coach. “They don’t have any pros, outside of Alex Karaban. Other than that, we looked at their roster and said: ‘We can play with them.'”
Hurley is clearly one of America’s top coaches. And he has weathered adversity in the past. But those teams had more talent. It’s difficult to see how UConn will overcome its personnel deficiencies to win a third national title. It’s possible, but it’s not misguided to believe those dreams are now dashed after what happened last week.
Auburn should be the early favorite to win the national title
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Johni Broome gets an early 3 to go for Auburn
Johni Broome gets an early 3 to go for Auburn
On the first possession of his team’s win over Memphis in the Maui Invitational title game, Johni Broome, who has made a strong case to be the front-runner for the Wooden Award after the first month of the season, hit a 3-pointer. A few possessions later, he scored on a left hook in the lane. Minutes after that move, he finished with a putback on the left side of the rim. Thus far, Broome has been an unpredictable force (in a good way) for the Tigers.
He has made 68% of his shots inside the arc this season and is 7-for-15 from beyond the arc over his past four games. His development has helped Auburn, which enters the week first in KenPom’s rankings, become the most balanced team in the country (first in adjusted offensive efficiency, seventh in adjusted defensive efficiency).
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
Broome, a 6-foot-10 power forward, is surrounded by versatile talent in a starting rotation that does not include a player shorter than 6-4. That length has made Auburn a team that’s defensively flexible, and with Broome, one of America’s best, the Tigers are also scoring 86.7 PPG.
The Tigers also boast the nation’s best résumé with wins over Memphis, North Carolina, Houston and Iowa State. Although it’s early, they have made a compelling argument that they could be the team to beat in March. The early metrics respect them. The pollsters, too. And Bruce Pearl has eight players who’ve averaged at least 15 minutes per game. Pearl seems to have everything a coach would want in a potential contender.
Indiana will get left behind in the Big Ten race
Prior to this season, coach Mike Woodson told ESPN he believed he had the best roster of his tenure at Indiana. That seemed valid. Oumar Ballo arrived from Arizona. Myles Rice transferred from Washington State. Plus, Mackenzie Mgbako is an NBA prospect and one of three key veterans who returned from last season’s team.
But some of the same early challenges that plagued last season’s crew remain. The Hoosiers surrendered 124 points per 100 possessions to Louisville and 120 points per 100 possessions to Gonzaga, atrocious numbers for a squad that’s 71st in adjusted defensive efficiency right now. Last season, Indiana suffered seven losses by 14 points or more. The team’s lopsided losses to Louisville and Gonzaga in the Battle 4 Atlantis was concerning because Indiana’s collapses last season were equally dramatic. Plus, the Hoosiers have struggled to make shots inside the arc.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
“It’s a whole team effort. My guys supported me,” said Oregon guard Keeshawn Barthelemy, after he led his team with 22 points in its 83-81 victory over No. 9 Alabama on Saturday in the Players Era Festival Championship. “And I’m just happy to win. We’re winners.”
Oregon not only left that event with a trophy and an extra $1 million toward its NIL budget, but the Ducks also likely secured a Top 25 ranking on that trip, which included wins over Texas A&M, San Diego State and Alabama.
But that’s only one of the surprises in the Big Ten. Purdue hasn’t lost its contender status because of the rise of Trey Kaufman-Renn (19.1 PPG, 7.1 RPG). And John Tonje (22.9 PPG) has changed Wisconsin‘s fortunes, too. Illinois and Kasparas Jakucionis, a projected lottery pick in next summer’s NBA draft, just beat Arkansas. Michigan State scored a win over North Carolina at the Maui Invitational. And Rutgers hasn’t hit its stride yet, but the team has a pair of potential top-three picks in next summer’s NBA draft.
Overall, 11 Big Ten teams entered the week ranked in the top 50 on KenPom, but Indiana was not among them after the Hoosiers’ trip to the Bahamas.
Questions about their status in the Big Ten hierarchy are valid after the Hoosiers entered the season as a serious threat to the Boilermakers in the league title race.
Duke’s schedule will impact the confidence, development of young talent
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Cooper Flagg’s 24-point night leads Duke to victory
Duke’s star freshman Cooper Flagg scores 24 points with six rebounds to lead the No. 12 Blue Devils past No. 17 Arizona.
Jon Scheyer understood the stakes entering the season. He’d scheduled difficult games for Cooper Flagg, the projected No. 1 pick in next summer’s NBA draft, and his young team in tough locations. “[Flagg] wouldn’t have it any other way,” he told ESPN, prior to his team’s matchup at Arizona two weeks ago.
The Blue Devils have lost to Kentucky in the Champions Classic in Atlanta, defeated Arizona in Tucson and lost to Kansas in Las Vegas. In the losses to Kentucky and Kansas, Flagg’s late turnovers were costly, but Duke was in position to win both games. It’s clear that Scheyer is still trying to find the right way to help Flagg & Co. in those late-game situations. But few freshmen enter their first season of college basketball with the gauntlet Duke has endured thus far.
Verdict: OVERREACTION
First (and it’s worth repeating all season), Flagg isn’t even 18 years old yet. The late-game challenges for Flagg and his teammates against Kentucky and Kansas have been scrutinized. But there is another way to look at this: a teenager and his young teammates played a pair of squads with Final Four aspirations down to the final possession. That’s impressive. And that’s exactly what Scheyer hoped this squad would experience, sans the losses, with a schedule that will also include an ACC/SEC Challenge matchup next week against Auburn before conference play begins with a game at Louisville days later.
No, Scheyer didn’t send his team into these competitive matchups to test them. He knew, however, those games would help this young team mature. And they will. The 2018-19 Duke squad led by Zion Williamson lost a close game to Gonzaga in the Maui Invitational before it rattled off nine consecutive wins. During the 2011-12 nonconference season, Kentucky battled North Carolina in a thriller and lost at Indiana in its next game. The Wildcats won the national title that season.
The highs and lows Duke has endured thus far will only help the program when it faces adversity come March.
Louisville found the right leader in Pat Kelsey
Louisville benefitted from its trips to the Bahamas in the Battle 4 Atlantis, which included wins over Indiana and West Virginia and a spirited rally that fell short against Oklahoma in the tournament’s title game. But the Cardinals played some of the best basketball we’ve seen from that program in years.
And that’s important. Pat Kelsey was charged with rebooting a brand that has endured scandals and massive struggles over the past decade. The name, image and likeness era does not offer any guarantees, which is why the school turned to an energized leader to guide it through this new era.
Verdict: NOT AN OVERREACTION
On his Twitter feed, there is a video of Kelsey walking through Louisville’s campus and asking fans to come to the team’s game against Tennessee. To some, the approach might seem corny or odd. But it’s also exactly what Louisville needed following the struggles under Kenny Payne.
More than anything, Payne did not exude the energy that seems necessary to rebuild a brand in this current climate. Kelsey’s vigor is obvious, but last week’s success mattered because it showed he’s not just a gimmick. He can coach. And that’s a good combination for a program that “for the first time in a long time” has been recognized for something other than off-court drama and on-court woes. Kelsey seems to possess the traits Louisville has wanted in a head coach.