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Jay Bilas, College Basketball Analyst
Welcome to The Bilas Index, Volume I for the 2024-25 college basketball season. It has been an offseason of pleasant distractions, such as the Dodgers winning another World Series title, various and sundry Taylor Swift concerts and the weekend airings of that ground acquisition game known as “football,” despite the painfully low occurrences of actually using the foot to impact the ball, and the sport in which the hours of game time are populated by such small time periods when the ball is actually in play.
Those banal distractions were helpful while we patiently waited for the arrival of the most beautiful game ever played to return to the floor. That moment is finally upon us, and what a welcome joy it is to see a game of balletic movement by world-class athletes with no stoppages after every play. A game in which players are required to compete on both offense and defense without committee meetings between plays. Basketball is, without reasonable debate, the most team-oriented, breathtakingly beautiful, strategically complicated game in world history, one that captures the imagination of those with fully evolved brains.
It can be daunting to determine the best of the 300+ teams in Division I that will contend for the national championship of this aesthetically pleasing game, both for inclusion into the postseason competition for the trophy and for the teams that can and the one that will take that trophy home. That is where The Bilastrator comes in. Through the hyperintelligent use of analytics combined with the unimaginable power of The Bilastrator’s brain and basketball IQ.
Researchers have been studying for decades the unusual volume of gray matter inside The Bilastrator’s bald dome, including the subtle characteristics of the speed at which his nerve impulses travel from the hardwood to his brain, and the number of neuronal connections in the diffuse network of brain regions that process the mountain of information produced in the college basketball ecosystem. The well-intentioned, unwashed masses feebly attempt to process data with the naked eye while understandably unqualified to do so, and are expected to fill out brackets at the end of the season with relatively no chance of processing the volume of basketball data successfully.
Thankfully, you don’t have to, because you have The Bilas Index, the most reliable, trustworthy and valuable tool to understand this beautiful game ever produced in the known universe. For that, The Bilastrator says, “you’re welcome.”
1. The 2025 national championship trophy belongs to no team. But, if you are making a projection or pick, how could any reasonable person choose a preseason favorite other than UConn? Think about it, albeit with a lesser functioning brain than The Bilastrator’s. UConn has won the past two national championships with 12 straight double-digit wins, both after being unranked and ranked outside the top five in the preseason polls. There are no titles without great players but, it seems clear, there may just be something in the sauce. Dan Hurley has distinguished himself as an offensive savant, a modern-day Lombardi, and the Saban of superstition. The talent at his disposal is excellent, but will be better and more cohesive as we reach January. Alex Karaban, Solo Ball and Hassan Diarra return, but they also added Saint Mary’s transfer Aidan Mahaney and freshman Liam McNeeley, a great shooter who will benefit from Hurley’s fabulous schemes. The Huskies are a special program, but this is the bridge year toward undeniable dynasty territory. Only Wooden and UCLA know what that feels like.
Nate Oats is the real deal. The Tide are arguably the most entertaining team in America to watch because they let it fly with disciplined judgment, and they play so hard. Without the two title trophies in the backseat for UConn, Alabama would be the choice for No. 1 because of the talent on this roster. Oats led Alabama to the Final Four last season, only to lose to the Huskies, and Tide fans may wish to book early for a return trip. Last year’s Tide was one of the most prolific and efficient offensive teams of the past 30 seasons, and this year’s team promises more. Returning are Mark Sears, Grant Nelson and Latrell Wrightsell Jr., which is more than significant. And, for those who believe the transfer portal is wrong for college sports, remember that Sears was at Ohio and Nelson was at North Dakota State. Should they be required to play in relative anonymity when their talent was worthy of Final Fours? No. In that same vein, transfers Chris Youngblood from USF, Cliff Omoruyi from Rutgers and Aden Holloway from Auburn, along with freshman Derrion Reid, will elevate Alabama into UConn’s top threat.
The Jayhawks have been preseason No. 1 before, and will be again as long as Bill Self remains in Lawrence. Last year’s Kansas team had everything it needed, except for depth and health as the season dragged on. Healthy, Kansas was a Final Four team. Without two star players, it was over early. That is a less likely outcome this year, as Kansas will be deep and talented. All-America Hunter Dickinson, defensive wizard Dajuan Harris Jr., and human pogo stick KJ Adams Jr. are the core of the team, but transfers Zeke Mayo from South Dakota State, Rylan Griffen from Alabama and AJ Storr of Wisconsin will make Kansas just as powerful a threat as Alabama or UConn. Staying healthy will be paramount.
UConn is the program I associate with offensive superiority. Houston is the program I associate with defense and toughness. Year after year, Houston leads the nation in playing hard. Kelvin Sampson had a Final Four team last year, but an injury to Jamal Shead in the Sweet Sixteen derailed that train. L.J. Cryer, Emanuel Sharp and bookend forwards J’Wan Roberts and Ja’Vier Francis are back, with Oklahoma transfer Milos Uzan providing passing and playmaking. Houston has depth and very good individual talent, but the collective talent of defending, rebounding and playing harder than almost anyone else is the force multiplier.
The Blue Devils have won 27 games in each of the past two seasons, reaching the Elite Eight last year before falling to NC State. This year, Duke has the most talented team in the country and arguably the deepest in pure talent. The headliner is freshman phenom Cooper Flagg, but the presumptive No. 1 pick in the 2025 NBA draft is not alone. Freshmen Kon Kneuppel, Khaman Maluach and Isaiah Evans are all eye-popping talents, while transfers Sion James of Tulane and Mason Gillis of Purdue bring maturity and specific skills to make Duke a very real title contender. Oh yeah, Duke also has Tyrese Proctor and Caleb Foster returning, and the heights Duke will reach are largely dependent upon the play and leadership of those two guards. Expectations are high for Duke, but this crew can meet them.
The Cyclones are prepared to take the next step. This is a fabulous defensive team that has learned how to win and has battle scars to prove it. Tamin Lipsey, Keshon Gilbert, Curtis Jones and Milan Momcilovic form the backbone of a Final Four-caliber team, and transfers Dishon Jackson (Charlotte), Brandton Chatfield (Seattle) and Nate Heise (Northern Iowa) will provide additional firepower at both ends of the floor. The Cyclones are a lot like Houston in how hard they play and how hard they are to play against. Don’t be surprised when Iowa State makes a “run” in the NCAA tournament. The Cyclones are ready.
7. Baylor Bears
Scott Drew runs a model program, and the Bears are a model of consistency. Baylor has done expert work in the portal and blended in experience with new talent to form winning teams over and over again. Duke transfer Jeremy Roach and Miami rebounding machine Norchad Omier are both proven Final Four veterans, and freshman star VJ Edgecombe is a lottery pick who will be a difference-maker. Baylor has size, experience and quality personnel. When those elements are in place, Baylor delivers. For the past decade, Baylor has been one of the most efficient offensive teams in the nation. What would indicate that trend not continuing? Nothing.
The Bilastrator used to say that Villanova under Jay Wright had the best culture in basketball, and that was true. While it may have been a close call because there are many admirable cultures in the game, Gonzaga makes a credible claim for taking that title from Villanova. The naysayers seem to take great glee in arguing that Gonzaga plays in a small conference, so it is relatively easy to pile up regular-season wins. While that is debatable, what is not debatable is Gonzaga’s consistent performance in postseason, where the Zags have accomplished things that literally no other current program can match. Gonzaga has appeared in every NCAA tournament since 1999. Gonzaga has appeared in nine straight Sweet Sixteens, which no other program this century can match. In the modern game, only Duke and North Carolina can boast nine straight second-weekend appearances, and both Tobacco Road streaks ended before 2007. From 2015 to the present, Gonzaga has reached 5 Elite Eights, 2 Final Fours and 2 national championship games. And, Gonzaga has precious few players leave the program for the transfer portal. Transfers come through the door, but rarely does anyone leave the Hotel Few. This year, Mark Few has high-level experience back with Ryan Nembhard, Nolan Hickman and Dusty Stromer in the backcourt, with lefty Graham Ike, Braden Huff and Ben Gregg up front. Transfers Khalif Battle (Arkansas) and Emmanuel Innocenti (Tarleton State) add depth, while freshman big man Ismaila Diagne provides a rim-running, rim-protecting big who can develop among Few’s frontcourt experience. Gonzaga isn’t going anywhere…except the Sweet Sixteen and beyond.
Tommy Lloyd has done a fabulous job at the helm of the Arizona program. The only thing missing from his high-level résumé as a head coach is a Final Four appearance, which seems inevitable for him. While there have been legit chances, there is another one this season. The Wildcats lost a ton of talent when Keshad Johnson, Kylan Boswell, Oumar Ballo and Pelle Larsson left the program, but there is quality talent remaining. Pac-12 Player of the Year Caleb Love returns as the primary scoring threat, while Jaden Bradley, KJ Lewis and big man Motiejus Krivas are also back. Oakland transfer Trey Townsend will provide an experienced bucket getter with versatility and hunger. Campbell transfer Anthony Dell’Orso can really shoot it, and Tennessee transfer Tobe Awaka provides toughness and board coverage that will be Keshad Johnson-like. How quickly this group blends will be fun to watch, but it will be formidable by the end of the season.
The Tar Heels will look a bit different from what we have seen in the past. North Carolina has always been a big team up front, with anchors down low and on the glass. This team will be faster and more versatile, but the results will be similar. Hubert Davis has the ACC Player of the Year back in RJ Davis, teaming in the backcourt with speedster and facilitator Elliot Cadeau. Davis is among the most productive guards in Carolina history, and he has a light shot to catch Tyler Hansbrough and become North Carolina’s all-time leading scorer. Seth Trimble is a powerful athlete, and transfer Cade Tyson (Belmont) can really shoot the ball. Tyson is the brother of former Clemson star Hunter Tyson, and will provide versatility on the wing. Freshmen Ian Jackson and Drake Powell, and Vanderbilt transfer Ven-Allen Lubin are all super athletic wings who will improve this team’s speed, athleticism and length. Carolina also has Jalen Washington and Jae’Lyn Withers back to provide interior productivity. Different isn’t a bad thing. This team is how Hubert Davis envisions playing, and the Heels will present matchup problems and will really run. Buckle up.
John Calipari can get players, NIL era or any era. He has players at Arkansas. It will be different to see Cal in red, but we will get used to it quickly. Kentucky transfers D.J. Wagner, Adou Thiero and Zvonimir Ivisic traveled to Fayetteville with their coach, and transfers Jonas Aidoo (Tennessee) and Johnell Davis (FAU) will play major roles. A healthy Trevon Brazile adds athleticism, while freshman Boogie Fland can play both guard spots. The McDonald’s All-American will be one of the best freshmen in the country. Fland is a born scorer who will have significant weapons around him. Arkansas has been excellent over the past few years, and that will continue under Cal.
12. Auburn Tigers
Since Bruce Pearl arrived at Auburn, the Tigers program has become a legit destination for players, and The Jungle is one of the most electric environments in the game. Auburn won its second SEC tournament title under Pearl last season but got bounced from the NCAA tournament by Yale in a disappointing finish. Still, the cupboard is far from light. The only question will be at point guard. Who will run this team? Aden Holloway is now at Alabama, Tre Donaldson at Michigan and K.D. Johnson at George Mason. Outside of the point, Auburn has few question marks. Johni Broome returns as perhaps the best big man in the SEC. Equally impactful on both ends, Broome is a monster on the glass and in the paint. Denver Jones, Chad Baker-Mazara and transfers Miles Kelly (Georgia Tech) and JP Pegues (Furman) add versatility on both ends, as well. Auburn will be very good, the only question is how good. The point guard position will determine that.
What a remarkable program Greg McDermott has in Omaha. This program was in the Missouri Valley Conference and was always very good. But, in the Big East, Creighton has proven to be a Top 20 staple. Of course, there have been losses with Trey Alexander and Baylor Scheierman going to the NBA and Francisco Farabello graduating. But, assets abound, with Big East Defensive Player of the Year Ryan Kalkbrenner, one of the most efficient and productive big men in the nation, Steven Ashworth, one of the best shooters in the nation, and Pop Isaacs, the Texas Tech transfer who can be very dynamic off McDermott’s offensive schemes. Mason Miller can really shoot it, as can newcomer Fedor Zugic and freshman Jackson McAndrew. McDermott’s offense is beautiful to watch, and with a skilled roster, it should be again this year.
14. Texas A&M Aggies
The Aggies were highly regarded last season, but had some ups and downs early with some rough shooting nights. What kept Texas A&M going was a dedication to the offensive glass and Wade Taylor IV. Taylor is a fabulous scorer who can go on his own and get you 40, as he did against Arkansas with 41. He had seven games of 30 or more points and could leave College Station as the Aggies’ all-time scorer. Andersson Garcia was one of the most productive offensive rebounders in the country and distinguished himself as a lockdown defender. He gets extra possessions and occupies so much attention on the glass that it becomes that much more difficult to run on Texas A&M. When they write the book on this team, Buzz Williams will have nowhere to put it in his library…no coach reads more books than Williams. His library is Final Four worthy.
There is renewed energy in Lexington due to the arrival of former Wildcat Mark Pope to replace John Calipari at the helm. Pope played at Kentucky for Rick Pitino and won a title in 1996 on one of the all-time great teams in college basketball. Pope is an offensive genius, and there will be 3s raining down in Rupp all season. Pope is a positive influence and thinker, but he does not have a superstar or surefire NBA draft pick on this completely new roster. What he has is loads of very good, very skilled players who can shoot the ball, and that will be nothing but fun. Kentucky will not be star-studded, but the Wildcats will be fun and joyful. Transfers Jaxson Robinson (BYU) and Koby Brea (Dayton) can both fill it up, and Lamont Butler (San Diego State) provides Final Four experience, leadership and defense. Kerr Kriisa (Arizona and West Virginia) is a daring passer who will have freedom to create, and Otega Oweh (Oklahoma) is a physical defender who will put his body on the line for Big Blue Nation. And, Rupp Arena has the best ice cream in the country, which should be a recruiting advantage.
16. Indiana Hoosiers
This is a different Hoosier team and one that can win the Big Ten. Mike Woodson’s team won 19 games last year and missed the NCAA tournament. The Hoosiers had difficulty from deep and couldn’t support a very good group of big guys. But, the transfer portal has provided some real assets, including Myles Rice (Washington State), Oumar Ballo (Arizona) and Luke Goode (Illinois). Ballo will challenge the Indiana dunks record while Rice will get others shots and Goode will make shots others get him. Returning big Malik Reneau provides another powerful big body to complement Ballo inside. Trey Galloway is back as a senior and provides shooting and secondary ballhandling and passing. This season will look much different from last season for Indiana.
No team has won more in the SEC over the past seven years than Tennessee, and Rick Barnes has been knocking at the Final Four door, hard. He has had some fabulous teams that have just fallen short. Last year had to hurt more than most, because Tennessee went up against Purdue twice and finally had the offensive weapon it needed in Dalton Knecht. But, Zach Edey was just too much in the Elite Eight. Tennessee lost a busload of players from last year’s roster, but returned the team’s heart and soul in Zakai Zeigler, the best defender and hardest worker in the conference. Jahmai Mashack is another outstanding defender and tough playmaker, but the difference-makers will be the transfers. Chaz Lanier (North Florida) will have to take on the Knecht role of coming out of nowhere to lead the Vols in scoring, and he is fully capable of that. Lanier can create for himself, get to the rim and make challenged shots. He was the only player in the country to shoot 43% from deep while making at least 3.3 treys per game. But, those numbers were at North Florida … will they translate? Those questions were similarly asked of Knecht and Johni Broome, and both answered the questions in the affirmative. Lanier can play. Igor Milicic Jr. (Charlotte) and Felix Okpara (Ohio State) provide size and rim protection, with Milicic the more skilled passer and shooter of the two and Okpara the better rebounder and shot blocker. Tennessee had so much experience together over the past two seasons with Knecht added into that mix. This blend will have to learn each other and learn Rick Barnes. But the ingredients of another winner are there.
Shaka Smart is one of the best coaches in the game, on any level, and is among the best role models for young players I have ever come across. Smart has built a wonderful culture at Marquette, which seems to fit him and his values so well. Marquette is tough and together, but lost two NBA talents in Tyler Kolek and Oso Ighodaro. Still, the Golden Eagles (damn, I miss the Warriors … bring it back!) will again be very good. Kam Jones will take over more ballhandling responsibility, but perhaps call his own number a bit more than Kolek did. Stevie Mitchell and Chase Ross are two of the better defensive guards in the country, David Joplin can make shots, and big man Ben Gold can stretch the floor with his shooting. How the young players have developed will determine a lot, but this program has character and heart. It is hard to imagine that Marquette will not contend in the Big East.
19. Ole Miss Rebels
The Rebels have Matthew Murrell back, one of the most complete players in the SEC, and one of three top scorers returning this season for Chris Beard. Murrell is an All-SEC player and an All-SEC Defensive Team threat this season. Former Duke recruit Jamen Brakefield is a lefty shooter, and former Saint Peter’s guard Jaylen Murray had dynamic moments last season. Virginia Tech transfer Sean Pedulla is an All-ACC performer who can run point or play off the ball, and is an outstanding cutter, shooter and passer. The key for Ole Miss will be on the defensive end. If the Rebels are better protecting the paint and getting on the glass, this will be a very difficult team to beat.
Wes Miller has been building toward this season, and the former North Carolina guard has a team that will be very difficult to deal with in the Big 12. Plus, Cincinnati has some great names on the roster, including Jizzle James and Day Day Thomas, both good guards for the Bearcats. Texas transfer Dillon Mitchell is an elite athlete who can defend and play above the rim, and 7-footer Aziz Bandaogo is a defensive presence in the paint and on the glass. Bradley transfer Connor Hickman can shoot the ball, hitting over 40% from deep last season. Cincinnati has won 45 games in the past two seasons, but this will be the first year in the past six that the Bearcats will reach the NCAA tournament.
Last season’s Player of the Year, Zach Edey, is playing with the Memphis Grizzlies, but Matt Painter’s Boilermakers won’t be going anywhere. Guard Braden Smith averaged 12 points and 7.5 assists per game last year and got the 2024-25 campaign off to a flying start with 15 assists in a 91-73 win over Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Fellow junior guard Fletcher Loyer also returns after averaging 10.3 points per game last season. He had a game-high 21 in the season opener. Expect a balanced attack from Purdue this season, which saw five players hit double digits in game one.
22. Texas Longhorns
The season got off to a tough start for the Longhorns with an 80-72 loss to Ohio State in Las Vegas. But given the offseason turnover, a learning curve could be expected. Coach Rodney Terry went aggressive in the transfer portal, adding Jordan Pope from Oregon State, Tramon Mark from Arkansas, Arthur Kaluma from Kansas State and the Indiana State duo of Jayson Kent and Julian Larry. Mix in top-five recruit and elite scorer Tre Johnson and the Longhorns have plenty of pieces. Now Terry just needs to make them all fit.
23. Florida Gators
The Gators will need to bounce back from a heartbreaking NCAA tournament loss last season — a 102-100 defeat to Colorado. Third-year coach Todd Golden will be tasked with keeping up an explosive offense that scored more than 100 points twice in March against Alabama. It all starts with Walter Clayton Jr., who could be one of the best players in the country. Will Richard looked the part of a top-flight scoring option in the season opener, going for 25 points in a 98-83 win over South Florida. With Clayton Jr. scoring 29, those two can be one of the more dangerous duos in the nation. Alex Condon also returns up front and Alijah Martin, a transfer from FAU, can provide more scoring punch.
24. UCLA Bruins
Last year was tough for the Bruins, as they lost six of their final eight regular-season games. But don’t expect to see a repeat this time around. Mick Cronin revamped his roster in the offseason, adding six transfers and a blue-chip true freshman while returning three top starters. Oregon State transfer Tyler Bilodeau led all scorers with 18 points in a season-opening win over Rider, while USC transfer Kobe Johnson added 12 and returning starter Dylan Andrews chipped in with 14. With a November slate that includes Boston University, Lehigh and Idaho State, UCLA should be able to get off to a fast start before a brutal December stretch that includes games against Arizona, North Carolina and Gonzaga in a two-week period.
For the Scarlet Knights and coach Steve Pikiell, there is unprecedented excitement surrounding this season. The addition of five-star recruits Ace Bailey and Dylan Harper — who could both be NBA lottery picks — has raised expectations and interest in Rutgers this year. I had Bailey on my preseason All-America fourth team. He’s a 6-foot-10 guard/forward who can really do it all on the court and will present the biggest threat to Cooper Flagg for Freshman of the Year honors. And Harper is a 6-foot-5 guard who was No. 4 in ESPN’s recruiting rankings last year.
26. Oregon Ducks
The Ducks’ season ended in a heartbreaker last season, a double-overtime loss to Creighton in the second round of the NCAA tournament. To get further this year, Dana Altman’s squad will rely on former McDonald’s All-American Kwame Evans Jr., who averaged just 7.3 points per game last year but exploded for 23 in a season-opening win over UC Riverside. Evans Jr. will be aided by fellow sophomore Jackson Shelstad, who started 30 games and was a Pac-12 All-Freshman first-team selection. Senior 7-footer Nate Bittle went for 16 points and 11 rebounds in the opener.
Last year, the Illini finished 10th overall in KenPom’s rankings, buoyed by an offense that was third in the nation in adjusted offensive efficiency (points per 100 possessions, adjusted for opponent). They made it all the way to the Elite Eight before running into the UConn buzz saw. This year, the Illini are led by a deep, versatile group of guards. So deep and versatile that Ty Rodgers, who started every game last season is redshirting this year now. Brad Underwood’s team is led by the quartet of freshmen Kasparas Jakucionis and Will Riley and transfers Kylan Boswell (Arizona) and Tre White (Louisville).
28. BYU Cougars
It’s a new era in Provo after coach Mark Pope left to take the Kentucky job. In steps Kevin Young, who spent the past four years as an assistant for the Phoenix Suns. Last year, the Cougars were 18th in KenPom’s overall rankings but were upset in the first round of the tournament as a No. 6 seed by No. 11 Duquesne. Egor Demin is the one to watch this season. The 6-foot-9 guard/forward is ESPN’s No. 11 NBA draft prospect and previously played in Spain for Real Madrid. He had 18 points, 11 assists and 4 steals in an 88-50 season-opening win over Central Arkansas.
Jerome Tang’s team will be led by a pair of transfers this year. Dug McDaniel comes over from Michigan (team-high 16.3 points per game last year) and Achor Achor arrives from Samford, where he averaged 16.1 points and 6.1 rebounds per game to lead the Bulldogs to an NCAA tournament berth. After making the Elite Eight in 2023, the Wildcats didn’t make the tournament last year and will be looking to rebound.
Welcome to the big time, Derik Queen. The fantastic freshman entered the season with plenty of hype — he’s No. 25 in the ESPN draft rankings. And he didn’t waste any time showing that it was warranted, putting up 22 points and 20 rebounds in a 79-49 debut win over Manhattan. According to ESPN Research, he’s the first Terp to reach that mark since Joe Smith (a future No. 1 pick) in 1995. And it’s the first time anyone has done that in their first game since Michael Beasley in 2007.
The Red Raiders were the first victim of NC State’s Final Four run last season, falling 80-67 in the opening round. Coach Grant McCasland should have a balanced scoring attack. In a season-opening rout of Bethune-Cookman, senior guard Kerwin Walton led the way with 21 points, sophomore forward JT Toppin (ESPN’s No. 63 draft prospect) had 19 and eight rebounds and junior forward Darrion Williams (ESPN’s No. 91 draft prospect) contributed 17 points.
Tom Izzo is a legend. He starts his 30th year leading the Spartans and has made an incredible 26 consecutive NCAA tournaments, losing in the second round to No. 1 seed North Carolina last season. Senior Jaden Akins (23 points in the season opener) leads the way along with junior Tre Holloman in the backcourt, while Xavier Booker and Carson Cooper return up front. Frankie Fidler was All-Summit League last year while averaging 20.1 points at Omaha.
The Buckeyes have scored one of the most impressive wins of the season’s opening week, taking down Texas in a wire-to-wire victory Monday. Bruce Thornton, last year’s leading scorer at 15.7 points per game, is back in a big way, with 20 points, five rebounds and five assists against the Longhorns. Sharpshooter John Mobley Jr. made an immediate impression in his first college start, going 4-for-4 from downtown with 14 points in 13 minutes off the bench. After missing the NCAA tournament last year, the Buckeyes look ready to return to March.
Welcome to Saint Louis, Robbie Avila. Last year’s bespectacled breakout star has followed his former coach Josh Schertz to the Billikens. After narrowly missing the NCAA tournament with the Sycamores last season (and advancing to the NIT title game), Avila is determined to take the final step and play in March Madness. Things did not get off to a great start, with an 85-78 loss to Santa Clara. Avila was one of three players with 16 points, while Isaiah Swope led the way with 25. Depth could be an issue: All 78 points came from the team’s starting five.
The Friars narrowly escaped an opening night loss to Central Connecticut State. Senior guard Bensley Joseph, a transfer from Miami, saved the day with 21 points, including 5-of-10 shooting from 3-point range. The rest of the team was 3-for-22 from beyond the arc. But the Providence team you see now will be different from the one that appears later in the season. Star Bryce Hopkins is still not back from last season’s knee injury.
The Red Storm just missed the NCAA tournament last year, despite a 20-13 record and a No. 21 spot in KenPom’s rankings. Rick Pitino’s crew has a new look in 2024-25, led by Seton Hall transfer Kadary Richmond. The Brooklyn native can challenge for Big East Player of the Year. He was preseason All-Big East first team. The school’s other big transfer, Deivon Smith from Utah, made the second team. And with attention on Richmond and Smith, watch out for Simeon Wilcher to break out as a sophomore.
37. Miami Hurricanes
Jim Larrañaga is still around — which is most of the continuity you’ll get with the team that tried (and failed) to stop UConn’s title-winning run in 2023. The Canes then went 15-17, missed the 2024 tournament entirely and lost veteran stars Wooga Poplar (Villanova) and Norchad Omier (Baylor). That’s the bad. The good: Nijel Pack is back, with the space to make shots. He’ll have 2025’s No. 10 recruit Jalil Bethea and transfer Jalen Blackmon (21.3 PPG at Stetson last season), among other transfers, for company.
It has been an up-and-down couple of years in the second Sean Miller era at Xavier: a 3-seed and Sweet 16 appearance in his first season but then posting the program’s first losing record in nearly three decades in 2023-24. But Zach Freemantle and Jerome Hunter are back, and the Musketeers were picked to finish third in the Big East. Not bad when you consider who they’re behind (UConn, Creighton) and ahead of (Marquette).
39. Georgia Bulldogs
Just three players return for the Bulldogs who made a run to the NIT semifinals after missing out on the NCAAs. But expectations are higher in Athens this season. No. 12 recruit Asa Newell has already showed out in the opener against Tennessee Tech (26 points on 13-of-22 shooting from the field, 11 rebounds and 3 blocks), and Mount St. Mary’s transfer Dakota Leffew seems to be settling in well (18 points, including four 3s).
40. USC Trojans
Eric Musselman led Arkansas to back-to-back Elite Eights and a Sweet 16 appearance before posting his first losing record in five years in Fayetteville. The West Coast native is (sort of) back home with an entire roster of transfers — understandable in the chaotic coaching cycle — who put up some strong numbers at their previous stops. Can that translate to the Big Ten? There’s a whole season to see if the “Portal House” will bear fruit.
Can Boise State win an NCAA tournament game before it becomes a Pac-12 school in 2026? The Broncos have lost in the First Four three times now and are 0-10 in the tournament overall. That’s the most on-court NCAA tournament losses without a win by any team. But there’s hope for the perennial Mountain West favorites. Tyson Degenhart has returned and has San José State transfer Alvaro Cardenas to help. Leon Rice always seems to find a way to be in the tournament-spoiling conversation. There’s a chance it could finally happen this year.
With the splashy names in the ACC, it’s easy to overlook Pitt sometimes. The Panthers finished fourth in the league last season, briefly challenged North Carolina in the ACC semifinals and then declined an invite to the NIT when they didn’t get an NCAA tournament bid. They were picked to finish seventh in the league this season, but don’t count out Jaland Lowe. If the sophomore point guard continues his production from last season, Pitt could be a frequent flier in bubble team conversations.
The undefeated days of Saint Joe’s are well in the past, but a bright spot for the Hawks besides Billy Lange, who had his first winning season in 2023-24, is Erik Reynolds II. The senior had seven games with 25 points or more last season — including 28 in an overtime loss at Kentucky. Joe Lunardi’s alma mater is primed to chase its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2016.
44. Mississippi State Bulldogs
MSU returns last year’s leaders in scoring (Josh Hubbard) and assists and steals (Cameron Matthews, who was also named to the SEC All-Defensive team). Hubbard has already opened this new season determined to remain the Bulldogs’ top scorer, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that Mississippi State gets back to the dance in March.
While most of the attention in the WCC goes to Gonzaga, here’s a case for Saint Mary’s. First, the Gaels beat the Zags to win the league tournament and nab that auto bid last season. Augustas Marciulionis is the reigning league player of the year. He and his 39% 3-point shooting are back. Second, the Gaels know how to defend. They were second in Division I last season in scoring defense, allowing 58.7 points per game as one of three teams (Houston and Virginia) to allow fewer than 60 points. Per ESPN Analytics, they ranked 10th in adjusted defensive efficiency.
46. VCU Rams
The Rams are the Atlantic 10 preseason favorites, as three returning players (Max Shulga, Zeb Jackson, Joe Bamisile) made the all-league first or second teams and 65% of VCU’s overall scoring is back. In their season opener, four players (Shulga, Bamisile, Phillip Russell, Jack Clark) scored in double figures. The road to the tournament for VCU could be either the A-10 auto bid, or an at-large consideration.
Utah State understandably didn’t have an answer for Zach Edey in the round of 32 in March, but at least it snapped a 20-year losing streak in the NCAA tournament when it beat TCU in the first round. Danny Sprinkle’s hot season will remain in the books, but new coach Jerrod Calhoun is looking to bring the same energy from Youngstown State this season. He’s got Ian Martinez, USU’s second-leading scorer (13.3 points per game, 38.1% from 3) on hand to shake up the Mountain West before the program becomes a Pac-12 member in 2026.
48. Clemson Tigers
Brad Brownell led the Tigers on a historic March run last year, guiding Clemson to its first Elite Eight in 44 years. Last year, the team finished in the top five of the ACC in scoring (77.4 points per game, fourth), field goal percentage (47%, third) and 3-point field goals per game (8.2, fifth). That may be tough to replicate with the losses of PJ Hall and Joe Girard III. But Chase Hunter and Ian Schieffelin return, and Illinois State transfer Myles Foster is already proving to be a bucket getter (17 points, 6 of 8 from the field in the season opener against Charleston Southern).
49. TCU Horned Frogs
This is the sixth-best team from Texas on this list, but that’s nothing to sneeze at either. TCU returns Ernest Udeh Jr., but also has some scorers in its transfer class. Vasean Allette‘s 20 points led six double-figure scorers in the Frogs’ season-opening win against Florida A&M. It remains to be seen if everyone can gel enough to be competitive in the expanded Big 12, but one way to get there is to keep up with the fast-break points (TCU led Division I the past two seasons with 17.9 and 16.8 points per game, respectively).
The post-Juwan Howard era in Ann Arbor is here, and how. Michigan shot 68% (39 of 57) from the field and hit 10 of 18 (59%) from 3-point range in Dusty May’s first game as head coach. Can he translate his success at Florida Atlantic to the Big Ten? Of all the new coaches this season, he’s the one who could very well do it. If nothing else, he’ll pack Crisler Center again with his unique big man duo in FAU transfer Vladislav Goldin and Yale transfer Danny Wolf.
Another program with a new coach and new roster (in case you missed the theme of this season). Mark Byington is coming off a historic season at James Madison, including beating No. 4 Michigan State in the season opener and upsetting 5-seed Wisconsin in the opening round of the 2024 NCAA tournament. It marked the Dukes’ first NCAA tournament win since 1983. Byington brought only one player from his former team but has stacked the Commodores with high-major and mid-major talent.
The Huskies want to win, and they want to win soon. Danny Sprinkle might just help with that. The son of a former Huskies football player, Sprinkle is used to getting to the NCAA tournament, having taken Montana State (2022, 2023) and Utah State (2024) to the Dance. The ace up his sleeve remains Great Osobor, who has followed Sprinkle from Montana State and Utah State. In the Huskies’ season-opening win, Osobor recorded 15 points, 17 rebounds and 6 steals, becoming the only Big Ten player in the past 20 years to have at least 15, 15 and 5 in a game, according to ESPN Research. There’s some energy in Seattle again.
Last season was a roller coaster for the Badgers: They ranked as high as sixth in the AP poll, made the Big Ten championship game, but lost to 12-seeded JMU in the first round of the tournament. The Badgers lose three starters from last season — guard AJ Storr (now at Kansas) and guard Chucky Hepburn (Louisville) transferred, and Tyler Wahl graduated. That trio combined for more than 30 PPG. They still should be a bubble team for the NCAA tournament, but they’ll have a lot to prove in the new-look Big 10.
54. Dayton Flyers
Daron Holmes II, a second-team AP All-American last year, is a huge loss for the Flyers. (He was the No. 22 pick in this summer’s NBA draft.) But with Nate Santos (preseason all-conference first team), Javon Bennett and Enoch Cheeks returning — and key transfers in Zed Key and Posh Alexander — coach Anthony Grant should be set up for another strong showing in the A-10 — and maybe beyond? Last year, the squad made its first NCAA tournament appearance since 2017, beating Nevada in the first round.
55. New Mexico Lobos
Richard Pitino’s squad starts the season weaker than last year with the losses of Jamal Mashburn Jr. (Temple) and JT Toppin (Texas Tech), but Pitino’s cupboard is far from bare. Donovan Dent has a chance to be a real star in the Mountain West. Last year Dent averaged 14.1 points, 2.5 rebounds and 5.4 assists per game, and he has a great shot at upping all of those totals. The Lobos won the Mountain West tournament title last year, and they’ve got a shot at making the Big Dance again this season.
Nine straight wins? It’s still hard to believe how the Wolfpack pulled off that improbable Final Four run last year, especially going into the ACC tournament as a 10-seed. Many of the architects of that run — particularly DJ Horne (16.9 PPG, 3.5 RPG) and DJ Burns (12.9 PPG, 4.0 RPG) — are gone, so it will be a tough act to follow. Kevin Keatts will rely on senior guard Jayden Taylor, who also averaged in double digits in points last year, along with transfer Brandon Huntley-Hatfield, who transferred from Louisville. It’s hard to predict another Cinderella win, but NC State should compete.
A 26-8 record and NCAA tournament appearance in 2024 (the Wolf Pack lost to Dayton) marked by far Steve Alford’s best year at Nevada, though his squad has been on an upward tilt since his arrival in 2019. The roster is down two all-Mountain West players in Jarod Lucas and Kenan Blackshear, but there are plenty of contributors returning: Tre Coleman, Nick Davidson and KJ Hymes, in particular, are great players whose roles will only increase this year.
The Cornhuskers will look to build off their NCAA tournament appearance last year, their first since 1998. Their top scorer last season, Keisei Tominaga, was recently signed to a G League deal; another top performer, Rienk Mast, is out for the season. Fred Hoiberg will hope that returning seniors Brice Williams and Juwan Gary can pick up the slack, alongside a slew of transfers who will attempt to repeat Nebraska’s success.
Isaiah Stevens was a real playmaker for this squad for multiple years (to wit: MWC Freshman of the Year in 2019, second team MWC in 2021 and 2022, first team MWC n 2023 and 2024), and the Rams will feel his loss this year. He averaged 16.2 PPG and 6.8 APG — lofty numbers to which Northern Iowa transfer Bowen Born will aspire. Born didn’t hit those marks in his previous role or in his first game with Colorado State this week, but if he can even partially fill the void Stevens leaves, the rest of CSU’s supporting staff could push them for a bubble spot.
Jaedon LeDee is about as tough a loss as you can get for a squad like San Diego State — he averaged 21.4 PPG and 8.4 RPG and became the Karl Malone award winner as the nation’s best power forward. Lamont Butler, Micah Parrish and Darrion Trammell also left the Aztecs this spring. If Reese Waters (9.6 PPG last year) and Miles Byrd (4.0 PPG) can take steps up from their play last year, SDSU has a good shot in Mountain West, considering Brian Dutcher’s track record and the transfers they have coming in.
A squad that won an impressive 5-12 matchup against Saint Mary’s last year in the NCAA tournament, GCU returns a legit All-America candidate in Tyon Grant Foster, who averaged 20.1 PPG last season. (He went off for 22 against Saint Mary’s and 29 against Alabama in the tourney.) Much of Grant-Foster’s supporting staff is back, too, including Ray Harrison and Collin Moore, and TCU transfer JaKobe Coles joins the party this year and should fit right in. Another WAC title feels inevitable, and GCU will be looking for more.
62. Syracuse Orange
In Adrian Autry’s debut season in charge of Syracuse, he notched an impressive 20 wins — a total that feels doable again, even in the crowded new-look ACC. Will that be enough for the NCAA tournament? Junior guard JJ Starling (13.3 PPG last year) will try to get them there, with the help of transfers Jyare Davis (from Delaware) and Eddie Lampkin (Colorado).
63. Oklahoma Sooners
Senior forward Jalon Moore will be the key to the Sooners’ hopes this season — he averaged 11.2 PPG and 6.7 RPG last year. They just missed out on the tournament last year (coach Porter Moser still hasn’t earned a berth in his four years in charge), but Moore, Sam Godwin and newcomers Brycen Goodine and Jadon Jones will look to end that streak. The Big 12 did them no favors, but will the SEC be any better?
64. Princeton Tigers
Last year was a disappointing one for Princeton: Despite a 24-3 record, Princeton lost in the Ivy League tournament semifinals and then in the first round of the NIT to UNLV. The good news? Ivy Player of the Year forward Caden Pierce (16.6 PPG, 9.2 RPG, 3.2 APG) and Xaivian Lee (17.1 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 3.7 APG) return, angling for Princeton’s fourth straight Ivy League title — and maybe some tournament success this time.
65. UCF Knights
After a thrilling upset of AP-ranked No. 13 Texas A&M in their season opener, UCF fans have plenty to celebrate. And it wasn’t their first big upset of the Johnny Dawkins era: Last season, in a 17-TK season, UCF beat No. 3 Kansas as well as Oklahoma and Texas Tech, both top-25 squads at the time. Darius Johnson, who scored 24 points in the win over A&M, returns for the Golden Knights after averaging 15.2 PPG last year. UCF were picked to finish 11th in the Big 12 this year, but a few more wins could change that quickly.
66. Memphis Tigers
Much of Memphis’ offseason was clouded by chaos — another NCAA investigation, Penny Hardaway’s future uncertain, his firing of the rest of his coaching staff, conference realignment controversies. Hardaway has just one key player returning, senior forward Nicholas Jourdain, who averaged 6.5 points and 4.0 rebounds last year. But still, his squad has talent: Tyrese Hunter, a transfer from Texas, and PJ Haggerty, who averaged 21.2 PPG last year at Tulsa, should pair well together.
In a 13-20 season last year, the Fighting Irish finished strong, winning six of the last 10 games. And that fight hasn’t gone anywhere: Notre Dame has some of the best roster stability of any squad. Six players who started at least 12 games return, plus three senior transfers and four promising freshmen. Markus Burton will be the standout on this roster again — he averaged 17.5 points and 4.8 assists as a freshman last year and will only get better this season.
Hunter Sallis decided to stay at Wake Forest this year rather than enter the NBA Draft, and that decision could end up with him as an All-American. Sallis averaged 18.0 PPG, 4.1 RPG and 2.5 APG last year, and he’ll only continue to improve under coach Steve Forbes. If he clicks with the other returning seniors and some of Forbes’ four new transfers, the Demon Deacons could be an NCAA tournament squad.