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Sam Bruce, Deputy Editor, espn.com.au
The Wallabies will next week embark on a Grand Slam tour of the Home Nations, after coach Joe Schmidt named a 34-man squad on Tuesday.
Not even the most one-eyed Australia fan could possibly think that matching the feats of the 1984 team that conquered the U.K. and Ireland is achievable – imagine the odds on offer – but adding to the four wins the team has so far in 2024 is a must.
One is non-negotiable, two satisfactory – and anything beyond that would be a marvellous result.
The question remains, however: does Schmidt have the troops to do it? And what does this squad – and the Australia XV group behind it – say about his thinking for next year’s British & Irish Lions Series?
JOSEPH-AUKUSO SUAALII IS ON THE FAST-TRACK
That shouldn’t really come as a surprise, though Schmidt admitted he and his coaching unit, which included Australia XV coach Rod Seib in this process, had considered sending the 21-year-old code-hopper away with the secondary group to start with.
But, knowing that every minute of exposure to the Wallabies environment is invaluable, Schmidt named Suaalii in his touring group and hinted that a debut could come as early as the tour’s second Test against Wales.
“What we’ve tended to do is not play them in the first Test, to have a week with them first, and then build them in, like we did with Marika [Koroibete] and Brandon Paenga-Amosa, those sort of guys who have come in later,” Schmidt told reporters on Tuesday.
“I guess we get a bit of time here, we get three trainings here and then a couple over there [in London], and we’ve got a few guys still recovering from the Rugby Championship, so it will depend on that mix.”
Where Suaalii has an advantage on recent rugby league recruits is that he has familiarity with the 15-player game. Where Israel Folau had virtually no rugby experience, and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck had been more than 10 years removed from the sport, Suaalii laced them up alongside Angus Bell, Billy Pollard and Josh Flook in an Australia Under 18s team that defeated New Zealand in 2019.
Sure, that is still five years ago, but his four years of rugby in The King’s School First XV will have embedded some deep-seeded muscle memory – and Schmidt will be hoping that once the cobwebs are cleared, those same skills come flooding back.
“I think it does, you don’t suddenly lose that,” Schmidt said when asked if Suaalii’s rugby roots meant he could be fast-tracked. “One of the things that gave us confidence in the hub was how rugby reactional he was around the collision area; very, very good, very quickly, in what we were looking for, even though we weren’t doing full contact.
“In his application he is very intentional about how he learns and what he delivers, so those things gave us a bit of confidence in where we’ve ended up now with him being selected in the squad.”
HAS MARIKA KOROIBETE PLAYED HIS LAST TEST?
While the veteran winger’s omission stands out, it does not come as a surprise for a player who this time last year was thought to be retiring from Test rugby. While Pone Fa’aumasili might have gone rogue in that announcement following Australia’s inglorious World Cup exit, the question as to whether the Fijian will – and should – continue at Test level is now an entirely valid one.
Koroibete was well below his best during the Rugby Championship this year and had a forgettable afternoon against the All Blacks in Sydney, in particular, when he shelled three passes he previously would have swallowed.
And then there was the break against the Pumas in La Plata when, after running off an inside ball from Tate McDermott from a scrum, he was mowed down by Argentine fly-half Tomas Albornoz. Koroibete looked a couple of kilos heavier and a couple of yards slower this season and with Suaalii joined in the squad by bolter Harry Potter, and Dylan Pietsch, Andrew Kellaway, Tom Wright and Max Jorgensen all establishing themselves in the outside back group, it’s hard to see how Koroibete might feature against the Lions next year.
And that would likely be it, as the run to the 2027 World Cup would need to start thereafter.
“They’re discussions that will probably take place March/April next year, to see how he is going,” Schmidt said when asked if Koroibete could face the Lions next year. “I watch his Panasonic games, I know Robbie Deans well enough to have a chat to see how he [Koroibete] is going.
“At the same time, we’ve got some young wingers starting to come through and put some pressure on, and we’d love them to put enough pressure on where Marika feels that pressure and it becomes a really tough decision for us.”
Potter is the uncapped player among the Wallabies’ outside touring backs, though Schmidt revealed he had been impressed by the Force utility’s play in Super Rugby Pacific before he suffered a syndesmosis injury.
A Premiership winner with Leicester, Potter is one of an increasing number of players who have had to go overseas first to get their opportunity at professional rugby – but then returned with an improved skill set and genuine big-game exposure that comes with playing in the northern hemisphere.
KEREVI’S PRESENCE MAY BUY LOLESIO MORE TIME, DESPITE EDMED’S INCLUSION
Samu Kerevi was one of many disappointing Wallabies at last year’s World Cup. He did not look fit after only recently returning from a long period out with a knee injury, and the level of his play reflected that.
Given he then moved to Japan League 2 outfit Urayasu D-Rocks, Kerevi’s Test career was another that looked like it might be on borrowed time under Schmidt.
But in the hunt for a bigger midfield body, Kerevi has roughly a month to make an impression on Schmidt, with the veteran midfielder only available for the first three Tests of the tour alongside Will Skelton.
Three years ago under Dave Rennie, Kerevi would have been counted among the world’s elite inside centres, his ability to get the Wallabies going forward one of the key reasons why they won four back-to-back Tests during the 2021 Rugby Championship.
Playing sometimes as a first-receiver, or even further out, Kerevi formed a dynamic and complimentary midfield partnership with Len Ikitau that freed up Quade Cooper and gave Australia three different fulcrums from which to launch their backline attack.
If Kerevi can get back to his best – his Japanese coach Greig Laidlaw told Schmidt he’d never seen the Wallaby centre fitter — then that may lift some of the pressure off Noah Lolesio, who is yet to truly convince he is the commanding playmaker Australia needs at No. 10.
Just when, and how, the uncapped Tane Edmed, gets an opportunity to show his wares on tour remains to be seen, but his inclusion, like Kerevi’s at No. 12, is confirmation that Schmidt is not yet convinced about Lolesio and Hunter Paisami as his 10-12 axis.
“We feel Noah’s making progress and his confidence is growing… Tane’s had a good NPC, Dan Halangahu, who’s a top man and a very smart coach, has been keeping an eye on and giving me some feedback, and I’ve watching some things around Tane. So it’s a good for us to get a contact point with him, and we’ve got Ben Donaldson there as well.”
HOW DOES SKELTON’S INCLUSION IMPACT THE CAPTAINCY SITUATION?
It wouldn’t be a Wallabies squad announcement without speculation as to who might lead the team in the shorter term, despite the fact Harry Wilson’s four straight Tests in with the figurative armband is the longest run since James Slipper took over from Michael Hooper at the start of the 2022 Rugby Championship.
Wilson has done a fine job, too, his play holding up at No. 8 despite the added responsibility and the fact that he had no recent leadership experience.
But here’s where it gets tricky; can Schmidt afford to carry both Wilson and Rob Valetini in the same back-row with Skelton packing down at tighthead lock? The popular answer is ‘no’, given how such a combination would affect the lineout.
While Skelton has jumped at the lineout – he did it on the two-ball at the front last year – his inclusion does affect the number of options the Wallabies have to work with.
It may be that his inclusion forces Schmidt to consider a more athletic jumping option than Wilson in the back-row, such as Jeremy Williams or Lukhan Salakaia-Loto, both who have played in the No. 6 jersey, with Skelton left to pack down alongside Nick Frost.
Given Valetini’s status as Australia’s most damaging ball-carrier, it’s reasonable to suggest that Wilson might be the man who drops back to the bench, should Skelton be given the chance to start.
And that may open up the opportunity for Fraser McReight to captain Australia, just as he did at under 20s level.
McReight missed the first four games of the Rugby Championship through injury but was among Australia’s best in back-to-back defeats by the All Blacks.
If Wilson is shifted to the bench, Schmidt may have nowhere else to turn.
WHO CAN MAKE AN IMPACT FROM THE AUSTRALIA XV TOUR?
The 30-player Australia XV group also named on Tuesday saw players fall into three distinct categories; those involved with the Wallabies this year, those on the comeback trail from injury, and those for whom this will be their first exposure to a senior national program.
For the likes of Tom Hooper, Josh Flook, Zane Nonggorr, Josh Canham, Darby Lancaster and Corey Toole, the return to action will be a welcome commodity after they spent much of the Rugby Championship playing defence on the training paddock.
Massimo de Lutiis is meanwhile a player the Wallabies staff hold in high regard as a young front-row talent, while Reds teammate Jock Cambell remains one of the more underrated players in Australian rugby.
But the players whom Schmidt will be keeping the closest eye on will be hooker Lachie Lonergan and fly-half Tom Lynagh, the latter who was plagued by a hamstring niggle throughout the Rugby Championship.
Lonergan has been out for most of the year, but he has previous Test experience and offers a point-of-difference to Matt Faessler and Brandon Paenga-Amosa with his busy all-round game.
Lynagh, meanwhile, remains right in Australia’s No. 10 mix – he just needs to string some games together.