The 2025 NBA draft is viewed by scouts as significantly stronger and deeper — especially at the top — than last year’s group of prospects.
The 2024 draft had an air of unpredictability over the No. 1 pick because of an unusually weak crop of candidates — mostly viewed as likely role players — and an array of opinions about who might emerge as the best player in the long term.
This year is different from a talent standpoint. The early favorite for the No.1 pick is Duke freshman Cooper Flagg, who has all the makings of a franchise player. Several strong contenders behind him also have massive platforms at their disposal to show they are worthy of consideration.
Still, this isn’t a Victor Wembanyama-type class like in 2023 with an automatic consensus at No. 1, as some NBA scouts tell ESPN that the door is open for them to consider other players depending on how the next nine months play out.
“I’m going into this year with an open mind about who the No. 1 pick might be,” one NBA executive recently told ESPN. “This is how mistakes are made: getting anchored to an opinion and then closing yourself off to new, much more important information that we’ll be receiving in the coming months seeing how the season plays out.
“I need to see if Cooper Flagg is indeed a No. 1-type offensive option who can be expected to carry a team at some point in his career, or if he’s more of a superstar role player who is better suited as your second- or third-best player. Every year there are surprises, new players pop up and others take an unexpected leap.”
We still have much to learn about this group, but here’s my breakdown of the five serious contenders for the No. 1 pick prior to the men’s college basketball season tipping off Nov. 4.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 51%
Why he could be the top pick: Flagg has been the front-runner since the moment he reclassified to the 2024 recruiting class, skipping his senior year of high school and becoming NBA draft-eligible in 2025 by just 11 days, with a birthday Dec. 21 (a player must turn 19 in the calendar year of the draft to be eligible for selection).
Nothing he has done since has discouraged sentiment of Flagg at No. 1, as he has produced in every setting where he has participated, including USA Basketball’s Select Team before the Paris Olympics this summer, drawing rave reviews for the way he handled himself against some of the NBA’s best players.
An explosive athlete, Flagg does everything on both ends of the floor. Offensively, he is a much-improved 3-point shooter and an outstanding passer. He is impactful on defense, playing with intensity while covering ground, making plays at the rim and guarding on the perimeter. He plays a winning brand of basketball, helping Montverde Academy (Florida) to a 31-0 record and national championship last season, and looks like the type of player who will be better with more-talented teammates, as he doesn’t need to score to positively impact the game.
The main things working against him are his youth, developing ballhandling and shot-creation ability, along with the outsized expectations. Flagg will be 17 for the first six weeks of Duke’s season. Scouts would like to get a better view of how much of a go-to scorer he can become long term, like you’d hope to get with a No. 1 pick.
Flagg has a clear runway to being the first player hearing his name called in June’s draft, but he must produce appropriately against a challenging nonconference and ACC slate to hold contenders at bay.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 25%
Why he could be the top pick: Bailey isn’t anywhere near as accomplished as Flagg in terms of his résumé or the accolades he has garnered, being tucked away on smaller high school and grassroots teams and coming on later as a top-shelf prospect, while similarly being young for his class (he turned 18 on Aug. 13).
His background has provided him more experience in a go-to role with developmental reps at point guard. He has expanded his game, becoming a two-way force and the type of big playmaker modern NBA teams covet. However, that has made him inefficient at times with some fairly wild, spacey moments on both ends of the court.
Listed by Rutgers at 6-foot-10, Bailey brings explosiveness, defensive versatility, shotmaking prowess and an intense, serious-minded approach. He can create his own shot, pass off a live dribble and operate at different speeds. He can generate rebounds, steals and blocks in bunches thanks to his frenetic energy and outstanding competitiveness. His highlights are likely to blow up the internet all season and make scouts wonder how high his long-term upside is considering he’ll continue to grow physically and from an experience standpoint.
Improving his polish as a decision-maker and overall consistency over the course of the season, in a featured role against elite competition in the Big Ten, will be keys for challenging Flagg and maintaining Bailey’s spot at the top end of this draft. His shot creation gives him star potential and the fact that he’s on such a steep development trajectory, even if he is still raw in many ways and will be seriously tested this season, will tell us quite a bit more about how he projects down the road.
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The highlights Dylan Harper is bringing to Rutgers
Check out some highlight plays from Rutgers commit Dylan Harper, the No. 2 player in ESPN’s 2024 rankings.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 10%
Why he could be the top pick: Harper dominated the high school all-star circuit in April, putting up outstanding performances in practices and scrimmages at the McDonald’s All-American game, Nike Hoop Summit and Jordan Brand Classic. That has some scouts penciling him at No. 1 on their individual boards.
Listed by Rutgers at 6-foot-6, the point guard has a strong frame and 6-10 wingspan, showing impressive ballhandling ability, strength and craft using and rejecting ball screens. He finishes with physicality inside the paint, guards with competitiveness and smarts all over the floor and can pass off a live dribble. He also brings dynamic shotmaking prowess and terrific instincts on both ends of the floor.
Harper was a streaky shooter from beyond the arc at different points in his high school career, and he isn’t as vertically explosive as other top prospects, as he relies on superior strength and aggressiveness for production against high school players. We’ll have to see how his shot creation and efficiency translates to the Big Ten to get a better view for his offensive potential.
Alongside Bailey, he’ll have a huge platform at Rutgers to show why he’s worthy of being the top pick.
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 10%
Why he could be the top pick: Edgecombe was the best player for the Bahamas national team this summer as part of its FIBA Olympic qualifying tournament campaign, playing alongside and against accomplished NBA players — which is not typical for a then-18-year-old.
Edgecombe might be the most explosive athlete in this class, with incredible burst turning the corner and exceptional quickness attacking the rim and getting off his feet for highlight-reel finishes.
Always lauded for his defensive intensity, Edgecombe’s ability to get almost anywhere he wants on the floor, combined with the strong perimeter shooting prowess he shows, gives him a great framework to build on.
He seems to be transitioning from the wing to more of a combo guard-type role, which would put him in a different category of prospects. He has a decent frame (6-foot-5, 188 pounds) and length (6-6 wingspan), which wouldn’t hinder him if he projects to play on the ball.
Edgecombe was inconsistent for stretches of his high school career with his decision-making and consistency, so it will be interesting to see his role at Baylor and how he fares against elite-level competition. The early returns this summer were very promising, and if he can replicate them in the Big 12, he will improve his standing come June.
Nolan Traore, PG, Saint-Quentin (France)
Predicted chance of going No. 1: 4%
Why he could be the top pick: Traore burst onto NBA radars as a top-pick candidate at the Nike Hoop Summit, where he posted 18 points and four assists. He also showed his talent playing alongside Edgecombe (and potential 2026 No. 1 pick A.J. Dybantsa) with the World Team against a Team USA squad that included Flagg, Bailey and Harper.
Traore’s ability to take the paint with his explosive first step and ability to change speeds fluidly, as well as his skillful finishing, tremendous court vision and increasingly diverse shotmaking prowess, is extremely attractive from a point guard standing 6-foot-5 in shoes.
If he confirms himself as the best ballhandler and passer in this class, as he has demonstrated in several settings, every team at the top of the draft looking for a point guard will need to take his candidacy seriously.
Traore will have a big platform to showcase his playmaking talent against European competition as a starter in the French Pro A and Basketball Champions League, which is uncommon at 18 years old. He has a long season ahead of him to continue to improve his defensive intensity and willingness to absorb contact inside the lane. He’ll also need to cut down on turnovers and show better communication and leadership qualities to position himself in this group.