Memphis, Tulane, USF, UTSA commit to AAC

Some of the highest profile targets of the Pac-12’s expansion have rebuffed their interest, as Memphis, Tulane, USF and UTSA all publicly committed to stay in the American Athletic Conference on Monday afternoon.

The schools announced their intentions on social media, which solidifies the AAC in the short term and leaves the six-team Pac-12 in flux as it searches for at least two more members to complete it’s rebuild.

The Pac-12 added Boise State, Fresno State, Colorado State and San Diego State in recent weeks, with the goal to create clear-cut fifth best football conference. The school is in discussions with Gonzaga as a basketball addition, which sources told ESPN would come with a full revenue share. ESPN’s Kyle Bonagura is also reporting preliminary discussions with Saint Mary’s for the Pac-12.

But some of the Pac-12’s momentum to become the top football conference outside the power four leagues has stalled, as Memphis loomed as the linchpin of any potential additions.

The schools issued statements filled with typical jargon about student athletes and academics. But the reality is that a significant financial risk loomed if any of them decided to join the Pac-12. AAC Commissioner Tim Pernetti has been aggressive in attempting to leverage private equity money to help boost cash flow in the league.

The four schools released a joint statement that said: “While we acknowledge receiving interest in our institutions from other conferences, we firmly believe that it is in our individual and collective best interests to uphold our commitment to each other.”

The exit fees from the AAC loomed as big factors, as SMU paid $25 million to exit under the 27-month window. If you factor in revenue loss, that means projected $27.5 for the schools to exit, as the Pac-12 is slated to start play in 2026.

The biggest factor working against the Pac-12 for the high-profile AAC programs was that they couldn’t guarantee them a set monetary amount. The Pac-12 is working with its consulting partner, Navigate, to helped re-construct the league. Travel costs and the toll of travel also played a role in the decision making. Sources said that Navigate has been at the forefront of the outreach calls for the Pac-12.

While the league has offered projections of more than $12 million, there’s no guarantee they would land there considering they don’t know who the final league members are. That’s prevented them from getting a feel from television partners on what the deal would be worth, and the ambiguity presented risk for the AAC school. Memphis, Tulane and USF make close to $9 million in revenue from the league all in with media, bowl deals and NCAA units.

As the Pac-12 whiffed on some of its top targets on Monday, the Mountain West has been scurrying to solidify its league. ESPN reported that the Mountain West is offering outsized deals to Air Force and UNLV as incentives to stay in the league. The Mountain West is offering all of its eight members extra money, and it’s also guaranteeing that they won’t move backwards in their media contract.

ESPN has confirmed that Air Force has pledged its commitment to stay in the Mountain West. That is in the form of a memorandum of understanding that will allow the league to work toward a television deal and grant of rights.