Why Rutger McGroarty-Brayden Yager swap is a win-win

Could a one-for-one end up being a win-win? That’s what the Pittsburgh Penguins and Winnipeg Jets are banking on with the Pens getting forward prospect Rutger McGroarty and fellow forward prospect Brayden Yager heading the other way.

McGroarty, who was the Jets’ top prospect, is entering his junior season at the University of Michigan, while Yager, who signed his entry-level contract with the Pens, scored 95 points last season for the WHL’s Moose Jaw Warriors.

How did each general manager fare in a swap of top prospects? Here are our grades:

Penguins grade: A-

Any potential deal involving Yager leaving the organization meant Penguins GM Kyle Dubas had to get a forward prospect of similar value. Getting McGroarty meets that need.

The Penguins have a future to think about when it comes time for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, and Kris Letang to retire. That’s what made drafting Yager so crucial, and having McGroarty as their new top prospect allows them to retain that continuity.

The Penguins’ pipeline has faced a variety of challenges over the past several years. Their chase for another Stanley Cup came with the cost of moving on from draft picks, which is why they didn’t own their first-round pick from 2015 through 2018. While they did own their 2019 first-round pick (Sam Poulin), they did not have a first-round pick in 2020 and in 2021.

Then there’s this: Since 2016, they’ve had only two draft picks play more than 100 NHL games — with a caveat. Neither of those players — Calen Addison and Filip Gustavsson — ever played a single game for the Penguins, which further underlines the need for them to strengthen a system that will be expected to carry the franchise in the future.

McGroarty’s game has grown during his two seasons in Ann Arbor. He scored 18 goals and 32 points as a freshman for a team that won the Big 10 title. Plus, he was part of the United States’ team at the IIHF World Junior Championships, where he scored a goal and seven points in seven games to help the team to a bronze medal finish.

He enhanced his profile as a sophomore. Scoring 16 goals and 52 points, he was named to the conference’s all-tournament team, was a conference first-team All-Star selection and garnered support for the Hobey Baker Memorial Award as the nation’s top men’s collegiate player. He captained the U.S. squad at the WJC, where his five goals and nine points in seven games helped the U.S. win the gold.

It appears that McGroarty will spend one more season at Michigan, and he enters this season as one of the strong favorites to challenge for the Hobey Baker. From there, it’s likely that he signs his entry-level contract at the end of the college season, potentially joining the Penguins in their bid to return to the playoffs following a two-year hiatus.

Jets grade: A-

There had been rumblings for some time that McGroarty didn’t want to be in the Jets organization, and that a trade was forthcoming. The challenge for Jets GM Kevin Cheveldayoff was finding another top prospect who could be like McGroarty — in other words, ready to reach the NHL within the next 12 months.

Enter Yager, a center who has consistently produced during his time with the Warriors. He finished last season with 35 goals and 95 points in 57 games after scoring 28 goals and 78 points in 67 games in the 2022-23 campaign. Plus, he’s also developed as a player who can be trusted on a penalty kill.

A detail that makes Yager different from McGroarty is that the Jets now possess a sense of certainty they previously didn’t have. Yager signed his entry-level contract in late July, giving the Penguins (and now the Jets) their top prospect under contract. And if McGroarty had no intention of wanting to remain in the Jets system, it made the desire to add a player who was already under contract even stronger.

What does it mean for the Jets in the short and long term? Yager joins a farm system that already had promising prospect forward options such as Colby Barlow, Brad Lambert, and Chaz Lucius. Still, the Jets might have to wait before fully incorporating Yager into their setup.

With the Jets seeking a third consecutive playoff berth, they’re a team with what appears to be few openings in their lineup. While Yager would join them at training camp, it appears he or any Jets prospect forward could find it challenging to make the opening night roster.

In that event, it appears Yager would likely return to Moose Jaw for what would be a fourth full season. Because of the NHL-CHL agreement requiring that a prospect must be 20 years old by Dec. 31 of that season, it appears that Yager, who does not turn 20 until Jan. 3, would need to go back. That would provide him with one more year of development before he’d be eligible to join the Jets’ AHL affiliate.