Big 12 preview: Top transfers, freshman and key games to know ahead of the fall

The Big 12 looks a little different this season with the addition of four new schools and Texas and Oklahoma gone to the SEC. Arizona, Arizona State, Colorado and Utah are eager to make a big statement in their first year in the Big 12 despite big questions surrounding these programs. Big 12 mainstay Oklahoma State, which fell short in the conference title game last season, aims to reach the championship again with a better outcome, while Kansas State is shoring up its offense with a big transfer.

Can Utah pull off a Big 12 title in its first year after its starting quarterback has been away from the game for a season? Will Colorado prove it is the real deal as Shedeur Sanders looks to be in Heisman Trophy conversations? After a big game in the Pop-Tarts Bowl last year, can Kansas State QB Avery Johnson continue to perform as the projected starter this fall? Can Arizona make a run at the conference title under a new head coach?

ESPN reporters Dave Wilson and Kyle Bonagura look at the league’s top newcomers, biggest early-season games, coaches on the hot seat and MVP and championship game picks.

Jump to a section:
CFP outlook | Top transfers | Impact freshmen
Our favorite players | Must-see games
Numbers to know | On the hot seat
Teams on the rise | Power rankings

CFB Outlook

Should be in

Stability breeds confidence, and only Iowa coach Kirk Ferentz has been in place longer than Utah’s Kyle Whittingham and Oklahoma State’s Mike Gundy, both of whom are starting their 20th seasons as head coach. Both teams enter the season with proven quarterbacks, star skill players and talented defenses.

In the running

Both have plenty of talent and favorable schedules, but a little bit of a question mark due to coaching changes. In the case of Arizona, Jedd Fisch’s departure was a loss, but the arrival of former San José State coach Brent Brennan was able to hold much of the roster together, including quarterback Noah Fifita and all-everything receiver Tetairoa McMillan. Kansas State has won 37 games and a Big 12 title over the past three years, but will be breaking in Avery Johnson at QB and replacing offensive coordinator Collin Klein, who departed for Texas A&M, with co-coordinators Conor Riley and former Texas Tech coach Matt Wells.

Long shot

Kansas had a bit of a breakthrough last year, winning its first bowl game in 15 years and beating Oklahoma for the first time since 1997. The Jayhawks held on to coach Lance Leipold, and a healthy Jalon Daniels will make them a threat in any game. The other three are tough outs with gamers at quarterback — TCU’s Josh Hoover, Iowa State’s Rocco Becht and West Virginia’s Garrett Greene — who all earn admiration from rival coaches. Similar to TCU two years ago, if they can walk the tightrope, they can make a run.

Top transfers

UCF QB KJ Jefferson: At 6-3, 247 pounds, Jefferson has already been labeled as the closest prototype to Cam Newton by Gus Malzahn himself. No pressure there. Jefferson started 39 games at Arkansas, where he holds school records for career passing yards (7,923), passing TDs (67) and completion percentage (65.1). He has also rushed for more than 1,876 yards, and will be a staple in Malzahn’s power run game.

Texas Tech WR Josh Kelly: After showing promise during four years at Fresno State, Kelly had a breakout season for Washington State, catching 61 passes for 923 yards and eight touchdowns. Kelly instantly becomes one of the most dangerous deep threats in the Big 12 — a much-needed dynamic for the Red Raiders offense.

Kansas State Wildcats RB Dylan Edwards: Edwards burst onto the scene in Colorado’s opening win against TCU last year when he caught five passes for 135 yards and three touchdowns to go along with 24 yards rushing and another score. After that, however, Edwards faded into the background as Colorado’s offensive line made running the ball all but impossible. Back home in Kansas, Edwards should be a key player in the Wildcats’ Big 12 title pursuit.

Impact freshmen

Colorado OT Jordan Seaton: Yes, this one is fairly obvious, but despite Seaton being a freshman, he is an upgrade in talent over what Colorado was playing with last year and he has already been on campus as a midyear enrollee. We feel Seaton will likely have a similar season to Kadyn Proctor at Alabama in 2023 — highs, lows, flashes of greatness, but also a fair amount of struggles. Offensive tackle is one of the most difficult positions to transition in from high school to college.

UCF DB Chasen Johnson: Gus Malzahn was able to flip the former three-star from Pitt during the recruiting process and Johnson answered the call in the spring, rotating with the first team displaying toughness, competitiveness and the speed to adapt quickly to the college level. Whether it’s at corner or safety, Johnson could see significant time for the Knights as they head into year two in the Big 12.

Houston WR Jayshon Ridgle: Ridgle may have flown under the radar on the national recruiting scene, but all new Houston coach Willie Fritz does is win and know how to find players. Houston loses its top two targets from last year, and Ridgle comes in having posted a 10.83 100 meter time in 2023. He can play multiple positions including special teams. You can’t coach speed.

Kansas DE Deshawn Warner & DE Dakyus Brinkley: Here’s a twofer for you. Both Warner and Brinkley are two of the highest-rated prospects Kansas has ever signed and most importantly at a premium position. Kansas is light on the edge in terms of depth and experience, which gives both prospects the opportunity to play early and prove their worth over the course of the season. Brinkley was initially an OLB and both prospects will need to gain significant weight, but could be used as situational pass rushers. — Tom Luginbill

Our favorite players

Utah QB Cam Rising: From 2021 to 2022, Rising was one of the best quarterbacks in the country, leading the Utes to back-to-back Pac-12 titles. After missing all of last season, he ushers the Utes into their new conference with a rare opportunity to both guide a team to three conference titles and accomplish that in different conferences.

Arizona WR Tetairoa McMillan: Expectations were sky-high in Tucson when McMillian arrived as the highest-ranked recruit in school history and, somehow, the former five-star recruit has exceeded them. He’s the best receiver in the Big 12 by a healthy margin and should be a first-round pick in the 2025 NFL draft.

Colorado WR/CB Travis Hunter: Look, who doesn’t love watching a guy go both ways? Players like Hunter are rare these days, so it’s easy to appreciate what he does playing cornerback and receiver for the Buffs.

ASU RB Cam Skattebo: Running back, quarterback, receiver, tight end, return man, Skattebo was forced to do it all for Arizona State last season. It wasn’t ideal for ASU because it was only necessary because of injuries, but it showcased incredible versatility and selflessness from the 2022 Big Sky Offensive Player of the Year (at Sacramento State).

TCU QB Josh Hoover: Hoover became the starter midway through his redshirt freshman season last year, starting the final six games. He averaged 339.5 yards per game over that stretch, including two 400-yard performances, and threw eight touchdowns to two interceptions over the final three games against Texas, Baylor and Oklahoma.

Oklahoma State RB Ollie Gordon II: OSU’s season turned around when it stopped overthinking the offense and gave the ball to Gordon. After just 19 carries in the first three games, Gordon reeled off eight 100-yard games in his past nine, including 837 total yards and seven TDs in a three-week period against Kansas, West Virginia and Cincinnati.

UCF RB RJ Harvey: Harvey can fly, and UCF likes to get him in space, where he can’t be caught. Harvey closed the season with seven 100-yard games in his final eight, including 206 yards and three touchdowns in a 45-3 blowout against Oklahoma State, who made it to the Big 12 championship game.

Kansas QB Jalon Daniels: One of the most tantalizing talents, his back has betrayed him over his career. At the end of 2022, he threw for 544 yards and five TDs in a 55-53 Liberty Bowl loss to Arkansas, and was named the preseason Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year last season. But by the end of September, after just three games and a 3-0 start (705 yards, 5 TDs, 1 INT) he was on the injury list. He stayed at KU instead of looking for a fresh start, setting the table for a final season if we’re lucky enough to get to watch him.

Must-see games

Utah at Oklahoma State, Sept. 21: An early preview of the Big 12 title game? It just might be. The winner of this game will likely emerge as the Big 12 favorite, while the loser will be on the brink of exiting the title discussion with a difficult game the following week.

Oklahoma State at Kansas State, Sept. 28: OSU has won four of the past five matchups, but the one loss was a 48-0 rout in Manhattan in 2022, the Cowboys’ first shutout loss since 2009. At K-State, the Wildcats are 3-2 over the past decade against OSU, with two losses by a total of eight points and three wins by 34, 19 and 48.

Arizona at Utah, Sept. 28: Arizona and Utah weren’t exactly rivals in the Pac-12, but there’s a shared history now as they make the move to the Big 12 together. Both schools enter the season with internal playoff expectations and this game could play a deciding role.

Colorado at Nebraska, Sept. 7: Colorado’s win against Nebraska last year fueled the Coach Prime hype machine, but after both teams wilted under their respective first-year coaches, they’re now looking to bounce back.

BYU at Utah, Nov. 9: The Holy War rarely fails to entertain, and this is a special version considering it is a conference game again, and, for the first time, in a major conference.

Kansas at Kansas State, Oct. 26: Kansas lost an 11-point third quarter Sunflower Showdown lead last season in a 31-27 K-State win in Lawrence, but the Jayhawks were down to third-string freshman quarterback Cole Ballard. This could be a battle of two of the best QBs in the Big 12 if both KU’s Jalon Daniels and K-State’s Avery Johnson are healthy.

Numbers to know

7

Number of different schools to play in the past four Big 12 championship games

56

Years since Kansas won a conference title (Jayhawks were co-champs of the Big Eight in 1968)

18

Oklahoma State’s streak of seasons with a winning record, third best in FBS (Boise State and Wisconsin)

7.72

Yards per carry by West Virginia‘s Jahiem White last season, best among FBS running backs (minimum 100 carries) — ESPN Stats & Information

On the hot seat

Wilson: Dave Aranda, Baylor

After going 12-2 in 2021 with a Sugar Bowl win over Ole Miss, Baylor has struggled to find an identity. Aranda hasn’t been afraid to make changes, but after last year’s 3-9 season, he replaced OC Jeff Grimes and his NFL-style approach with Jake Spavital’s Air Raid, hoping to mask offensive line struggles. Aranda is also taking over control of the defensive playcalling, his specialty. He knows this is his last shot at proving 2021 was the norm, not the outlier.

Wilson: Scott Satterfield, Cincinnati

Satterfield has only been at Cincinnati for one season, but was 17-19 in his last three seasons at Louisville, which then went 10-4 under his replacement, Jeff Brohm. Last year, the Bearcats went 1-8 in the Big 12 in its first season in the league and finished with just two FBS wins, over Pitt and Houston teams that won only three and four games. Cincinnati has punched above its weight for years, and a coaching change amid a step up in conferences was a tough combination. But Satterfield needs to generate some enthusiasm in a new era in the Queen City.

Teams on the rise

Bonagura: Arizona

Had Jedd Fisch remained at Arizona, there would be a lot more hype about the Wildcats right now. They went from 1-11 to 5-7 to 10-3 under Fisch and have most of their key players returning, including quarterback Noah Fifita, who deserves to be in the Heisman Trophy discussion. What’s still unknown is how new coach Brent Brennan’s arrival will impact life in the desert.

Wilson: Iowa State

Yes, Matt Campbell’s tenure in Ames has often seen the Cyclones listed among the most improved teams. But Iowa State could be due for a breakthrough, a year after a gambling scandal threw the season into turmoil before freshman QB Rocco Becht took over, settled in and became the Big 12 Offensive Player of the Year, setting ISU freshman records for passing yards (3,120) and TDs (23). Jon Heacock’s defenses are among the nation’s best year in and year out, and this year, expectations are sky high. That’s a combination that provides hope in Ames.

Power rankings

1. Utah: If Utah stays healthy, it is the best team in the conference.

2. Oklahoma St.: Mike Gundy generally figures it out, and Ollie Gordon’s return gives it one of the nation’s top backs to build around.

3. Arizona: With all its returning talent, Arizona has a case to be the favorite.

4. Kansas St.: Avery Johnson is one of the most talented players the Wildcats have ever landed. Can he lead them among the elite?

5. Iowa St.: If Rocco Becht builds on his impressive freshman debut, watch out.

6. WVU: Neal Brown got the contract and stability he needed to keep building after nine wins and a bowl victory.

7. Kansas: As Jalon Daniels grows, so will the Jayhawks.

8. TCU: Sonny Dykes is betting on new DC Andy Avalos to help balance out a talented offense after a 5-7 disappointment that ended by giving up 69 points to Oklahoma.

9. Texas Tech: Joey McGuire’s roster makeover is full of his players. The offensive line is the key, finding space for Tahj Brooks, who ran for 1,541 yards last year.

10. UCF: Gus Malzahn has his QB in Jefferson; the Knights finished 6-7 last year, but three losses were by a total of four points, including a 2-point loss in Norman to OU after a regrettable 2-point conversion attempt to tie.

11. Baylor: Dave Aranda is moving to the Air Raid on offense, and taking over the defense again. DeQuan Finn arrives from Toledo in hopes of stability at QB.

12. BYU: After a disappointing first year in the Big 12, the Cougars have a lot to prove.

13. Houston: New coach Willie Fritz has been a winner everywhere he has been. At 64, he finally gets the job he wants in a power conference in a city he has recruited for years.

14. Colorado: After a last-place finish in the Pac-12 last year, the Deion Sanders marketing machine needs to show it can take care of business on the field.

15. Cincinnati: It’s hard to believe the Bearcats’ trip to the College Football Playoff was in 2021.

16. Arizona St: The Sun Devils believe they’ve addressed their roster needs, but will it be enough to be competitive after a three-win 2023?