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Adam Rittenberg
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Adam Rittenberg
ESPN Senior Writer
- College football reporter.
- Joined ESPN.com in 2008.
- Graduate of Northwestern University.
The point of underachiever tiers isn’t to shovel shame upon unsuspecting college football teams or their fans, but instead to focus on the why.
Why do certain programs, despite baked-in advantages, consistently fall short of their potential? For some, the shortcomings occur at the very top of the sport. Georgia, after all, was the inspiration for the first edition of underachiever tiers, as the Bulldogs went 41 years between national championships before breaking through in 2021. We’re taking a different approach to the tiers this season. Teams are grouped in seven different categories, with the understanding that not all are capable of competing nationally, or even consistently for conference championships. The reasons for underachievement also vary.
For the first time, we’re incorporating an expected SP+ rating based on recent recruiting rankings, long-term history, stadium capacity and, where available, coach and coaching staff salaries. Comparing this number to each team’s actual five-year SP+ average gives us a unique look at who is performing at a level sufficient to expectations. We focused on team data from the past five seasons, but also took long-term snapshots to examine trends and identify why they’ve fallen short.
No teams are exempt, although those that have won recent national titles do not appear below.
Let’s get started.
Jump to a tier:
CFP no-shows | Under the projections
Hoops or else | Never won big
Money problems | Could’ve done more | Who’s next
CFP no-shows tier
Teams that have never made the College Football Playoff.
Last conference or national title: 2016 conference, 1986 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: Fifth in expected five-year average, sixth in actual five-year average. The Nittany Lions have performed close to expectations on paper, but three straight losses to Michigan and seven straight to Ohio State have held them back in terms of both perceptions and the standings.
Assets: Massive stadium; highest-profile program in football-crazed state; top blue-blood program in Northeast region with direct recruiting access to the New Jersey and New York City markets
Why and where they’re underachieving: Arguably no program should benefit more from the CFP expansion from four to 12 teams more than Penn State. The Nittany Lions have finished in the top 12 of the final CFP standings six times since 2016, when they won their last Big Ten title. But coach James Franklin’s mostly successful tenure (88-39 overall) has been hurt by struggles against Ohio State and Michigan, and a 3-17 record against AP top 10 opponents. Zooming out, Penn State’s big-game struggles since joining the Big Ten are notable and contribute to why the team has only four league titles since joining in 1993.
Quarterback play also jumps out. Since Kerry Collins, the No. 5 pick in the 1995 NFL draft, Penn State has had only four quarterbacks drafted and only one (Christian Hackenberg) higher than the fifth round. Franklin made it clear last month at Big Ten media days that the CFP is the standard — “We are one of the few programs in the country [where] you can win 10 or 11 games, and people are unhappy, so we embrace that,” he said — and that athletic director Pat Kraft has provided the support and resources that perhaps were lacking earlier in his tenure. Clearly the time has come to deliver even stronger results.
Last conference or national title: 2008 conference and national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 13th in expected five-year average, 16th in actual five-year average. Solid 2019-20 performances are propping the Gators’ averages up. Over the past three seasons they rank just 27th. Performances have not yet rebounded under Billy Napier.
Assets: Large stadium and fan base; flagship school in elite recruiting state; history of strong quarterback play and exciting offense
Why and where they’re underachieving: Florida has had two dominant stretches under iconic coaches. Steve Spurrier went 122-27-1 at his alma mater with six SEC titles, a national championship in 1996, and no AP poll finish lower than 13th. Urban Meyer led the Gators to national titles in 2006 and 2008, and also never finished worse than 13th. Although replicating Spurrier and Meyer is extremely difficult, Florida’s inability to capture consistent performance and coaching continuity has been concerning. The Gators are on their fourth coach since Meyer stepped away after the 2010 season, and Billy Napier faces significant job pressure this fall as he navigates what looks like the nation’s toughest schedule.
Rival Georgia has passed Florida in performance and recruiting, and Tennessee has a clearer schematic identity under offensive guru Josh Heupel. Dan Mullen posted top-10 finishes in his first three seasons as Gators coach, but things went downhill quickly. SEC coaches regard Florida as one of the league’s top jobs, but note that the school has struggled to capture the recruiting-scheme combination that both Spurrier and Meyer had in Gainesville. Florida also had lagged in facilities until opening the $85 million Heavener Training Center in 2022.
Last conference or national title: 2017 conference (Pac-12), 2004 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 16th in expected five-year average, 28th in actual five-year average. The Trojans have finished between 22nd and 32nd four times in five seasons but haven’t actually met that expected ranking of 16th since finishing ninth in 2016, seven seasons ago.
Assets: Location in recruiting and media/entertainment hotbed; decorated history both for teams and individual stars; deep-pocketed boosters
Why and where they’re underachieving: USC has been here before, suffering through middling stretches in the 1980s and 1990s before Pete Carroll’s incredible run of seven straight top-4 finishes from 2002 to 2008. The Trojans might not become the sport’s dominant program again, but they certainly can be the best in the West, boasting far more tradition — 11 claimed national titles, 37 conference titles, eight Heisman Trophy winners — than any other program in the region. Insular thinking has too often harmed USC, both with its athletic director hires (Mike Garrett, Pat Haden, Lynn Swann) and its coaching moves. Lane Kiffin and Steve Sarkisian are much better coaches now than when they led USC following the Carroll era, and Clay Helton couldn’t shoulder the magnitude of the job.
The school finally made a splashy coaching hire with Lincoln Riley in late 2021. But Riley didn’t inherit a program set up to compete nationally, from the roster to the NIL enterprise.
“I knew there was a reason why they’d underachieved, and we’re gonna have to figure out what those reasons are and to fix them,” Riley said in July. “But I was very much a believer and still even more so now that the firepower in this program has not gone anywhere. It’s still here. The things that are good in this program are so good and are things that really can’t be duplicated. So when you get all the other parts right, which is what we know how to do, then those will shine, like they did back in the 2000s.”
Last conference or national title: 2003 conference (Big East), 2001 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 20th in expected five-year average, 38th in actual five-year average. The Hurricanes’ 10-year recruiting average ranks 17th. The last time they actually ranked at least 17th in SP+? 2016.
Assets: History of national championships; location in top recruiting city; aggressive NIL program
Why and where they’re underachieving: Miami had one of the sport’s most dominant eras from 1981 to 2003, capturing five national championships and 15 AP top 10 finishes, including seven straight seasons in the top-5 from 1986 to 1992, and four more from 2000 to 2003. But the program has fallen hard since, failing to win the ACC even once and never finishing higher than No. 11. Miami also fell behind financially with facilities and other areas. The school cycled through coaches, some with direct ties to the program and/or city — Randy Shannon, Mark Richt, Manny Diaz — and an outsider in Al Golden who didn’t fit. ACC coaches and others note that the team’s struggles aren’t really mirrored in recruiting, which continues to thrive with current coach Mario Cristobal and an aggressive NIL program. Although Miami hasn’t had an NFL draft output come close to what happened in 2004, when it produced six of the top 21 players selected, the team has still held its own in the draft and in recruiting rankings.
The fan base is smaller than those of most national powers, and at times was known more for flying banners above Hard Rock Stadium that called for coaches to be fired than filling the stands. Although playing off campus at an NFL stadium isn’t ideal, Miami’s greatest teams also played away from campus (albeit closer at the old Orange Bowl).
University alignment has been another challenge at times. Miami’s push to bring back Cristobal alongside a respected athletic director (Dan Radakovich) and a strong NIL setup should, in theory, produce CFP contending teams. But the Canes are just 12-13 under Cristobal.
Last conference or national title: 1998 conference (Big 12), 1939 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 12th in expected five-year average, 10th in actual five-year average. Like Penn State, the Aggies have actually performed to where the numbers suggest they should. But they’ve only rarely been able to meet the demands of rough SEC West schedules, and in the last two years they went 2-9 in one-score finishes, 1-8 against teams that finished with winning records.
Assets: Massive financial backing for facilities, NIL and other areas; huge stadium and fan/donor base; prime recruiting location near Houston
Why and where they’re underachieving: Texas A&M might not be the first program listed, but it has become the most glaring example of underachievement in the sport. What other school without a league title this millennium — and only one 10-win season since 1998 — would pay more than $75 million to fire its coach, like Texas A&M did with Jimbo Fisher last fall? Or have a top-ranked recruiting class, as A&M did in 2022, and only produce 11 wins since then.
Texas A&M can spend like few others — on facilities, coaching salaries, NIL deals — but hasn’t found the ingredients for sustained success. As a former Texas A&M administrator told me, the school’s power structure — chancellor for the university system, board of regents, president for the College Station campus and the 12th Man Foundation – creates layers that can hinder alignment and production, even if everyone is well-intentioned.
The school has lacked continuity since coach R.C. Slocum, who guided the Aggies to 10 AP Top 25 finishes in his first 11 seasons, between 1989-99 before losing momentum. Since 2000, Texas A&M has had five coaches and six athletic directors. The leadership flux has seemed especially damaging for a program that has so many powerful and influential forces but not always in lockstep. Texas A&M also has struggled to find its footing in the SEC, posting only three winning seasons in conference play since joining in 2012.
Biggest underachievers (per SP+) tier
Last conference or national title: 1999 conference (Big 12), 1997 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 19th in expected five-year average, 60th in actual five-year average. College football has changed dramatically since Nebraska was lording over the sport in the 1990s, but it hasn’t changed so much that one can justify seven straight losing seasons. The Huskers haven’t finished in the SP+ top 50 since 2016 and haven’t seen the top 20 since 2014. Inexcusable.
Assets: Massive and loyal fan base; national championship tradition; top-notch facilities
Why and where they’re underachieving: What Nebraska accomplished from 1963 to 2001, despite being in the 37th-most populous state — five national titles, 22 conference titles and 470 wins, 14 more than any other program — remains one of the more incredible feats in American sporting history. Nebraska might never approach the same level of prolonged national success, but it certainly can do better than what we’ve seen during a dreadful last decade. The Huskers haven’t made a bowl game since 2016 and last posted an AP Top 25 finish in 2012. Their time in the Big Ten has been marred by coaching and administrative change, which continued in March when athletic director Trev Alberts, an All-American linebacker for the Huskers, left his alma mater for the same job at Texas A&M.
Since 2012, Nebraska has had four athletic directors and four coaches, including Scott Frost, whose ballyhooed return to his home state ended with disastrous results (16-31). A program celebrated for its surgical dominance has become known more for one-score losses. Nebraska also has struggled to reshape its identity and expectations in the Big Ten.
“Iowa’s more of a model at Nebraska than Ohio State is, with where you’re located and where you’re recruiting,” a former Nebraska official said. “You’ve got to be realistic. At some point, you’ve got to not be delusional.”
Last conference or national title: 1989 conference (Southwest), 1964 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 21st in expected five-year average, 53rd in actual five-year average. After a dire period from 2017-20, it appeared the Razorbacks were back on track, going 16-10 in 2021-22 with a pair of SP+ top-25 rankings. But the Hogs fell back out of the top-50 in 2023.
Assets: Large and loyal fan base; only power conference program in state; top-15 history; access to Texas and other recruiting hotspots
Why and where they’re underachieving: Arkansas is the biggest show in its state and boasts strong attendance and support, which includes mega boosters like the Waltons (of Walmart) and the Tysons (Tyson Chicken). The school has put up money for coaches, famously taking away Bret Bielema from a stable and successful Wisconsin program, and funded facility upgrades. Arkansas also has a history of success, including 19 AP top-20 finishes between 1954 and 1989, and eight top 10 finishes between 1959 and 1969. Even more recently, the Hogs had three top-15 finishes between 2006 and 2011. But the past decade has been rough. Bielema recorded a winning record in SEC play just once in five years. Chad Morris oversaw the worst two-year stretch (four total wins) in team history. Arkansas then made an unorthodox hire in Sam Pittman, a career offensive line coach, who engineered some initial success but enters the fall firmly on the hot seat.
Since 2012, Arkansas is 60-87, ranked 100th nationally in win percentage. The team has lacked a schematic edge it enjoyed under coach Bobby Petrino, who is amazingly back as offensive coordinator this fall.
After producing five NFL first-round draft picks between 2004 and 2008, Arkansas has just two since, and only one player selected in the second round. Life in the SEC certainly wasn’t easy, but Arkansas has struggled to harness its resources and make the right choices with both coaches and players.
Basketball or bust tier
This tier features schools primarily known for their basketball programs, but should expect more than what they’re getting on the football side.
Last conference or national title: 1998 conference (Pac-10)
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 26th in expected five-year average, 37th in actual five-year average. After five straight losing seasons, the Bruins finally showed promise under Chip Kelly from 2021-23, but they hit their head on a pretty firm ceiling, losing at least four games and finishing between 25th and 33rd in SP+ each year.
Assets: Prime location in Los Angeles recruiting market; recent facility upgrade
Why and where they’re underachieving: UCLA has one of the nation’s most beautiful campuses and direct access to recruits throughout Southern California. The Bruins have had star players, including six NFL first-round draft picks between 2013 and 2018. But the team hasn’t won its conference in 26 years, back when the Pac-12 was still the Pac-10, and has only four AP Top 25 finishes in the same span. UCLA has made notable coaching hires, but Rick Neuheisel never won more than seven games at his alma mater, and Jim Mora couldn’t sustain a 29-11 start.
The school’s lukewarm financial commitment was a problem for years, but things shifted in 2017, when UCLA opened the Wasserman Football Center on campus, and then hired Chip Kelly — ahead of Florida — as its new coach. UCLA’s financial issues remain concerning, though, and won’t immediately be fixed by its Big Ten arrival.
Kelly’s hiring felt like an inflection point, but UCLA didn’t get the version of him who revolutionized college football and went 46-7 at Oregon. The results were decent at the end – 25-13 in the past three seasons – but Kelly didn’t put much into recruiting and the NIL game, and pursued several NFL coordinator openings before ultimately taking the offensive coordinator job at Ohio State. The immediate recruiting buzz around new coach DeShaun Foster suggests missed opportunities.
“UCLA is beautiful, but if you don’t know that it’s beautiful, then you just don’t know,” Foster recently told ESPN. “So I just wanted to open it up and let people come by and just see exactly what UCLA has to offer. Being a Bruin, I was all in, making sure they’re seeing UCLA for UCLA.”
Last conference or national title: 1980 conference
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 29th in expected five-year average, 32th in actual five-year average. Mack Brown turned top-20 recruiting into a top-20 performance in 2020, but since then the Tar Heels have ranked between 40th and 60th in SP+ each season, thanks primarily to a defense that hasn’t ranked in the top 40 since 2016.
Assets: Flagship school in solid recruiting state; Jordan Brand affiliation; consistent producer of high-level NFL talent
Why and where they’re underachieving: Basketball always will be front and center at UNC, where the atmosphere inside Kenan Stadium will never be confused for the Dean Dome. But the Tar Heels have enough advantages, including brand power, to expect a conference title every now and then. To go more than four decades without winning the ACC is deflating. North Carolina has produced talent, including eight NFL first round draft picks between 2008 and 2017. Two of the Tar Heels’ last three quarterbacks, Drake Maye and Mitchell Trubusky, were top-3 overall draft picks, while the third, Sam Howell, started most of last season for Washington. But since three straight AP top-3 finishes in the late 1940s, only Dick Crum and Mack Brown, now in his second stint as coach, have generated any consistency.
North Carolina has made gradual facilities upgrades in several areas over the past decade – in 2017, the team had to practice inside Kenan Stadium because of construction — and Brown’s return and initial success has galvanized donors. Brown has hired former FBS coaches as coordinators, and made some initial recruiting waves with 20 ESPN 300 players in the 2021 and 2022 classes. UNC, however, once again has yet to translate the talent to team success. The Heels have only two AP Top 25 finishes since Brown’s first go-round as coach.
Last conference or national title: 2001 conference (ACC), 1953 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 36th in expected five-year average, 52nd in actual five-year average. Trends are solid here: The Terrapins have finished in the SP+ top 30 for two straight seasons, and their No. 21 ranking in 2023 was their best in 20 years. That their five-year average still ranks outside the top 50 tells you about the depths that came before the rebound.
Assets: Prime location near Washington D.C. and northern Virginia; only power conference school in state; flagship program for Under Armour
Why and where they’re underachieving: Success has come to Maryland, but only in bursts. The Terrapins won the national title in 1953 and finished No. 3 in 1951 and 1955, before going unranked until 1973, when they had a solid stretch under Jerry Claiborne and Bobby Ross. The program struggled from 1986 until 2001, when Ralph Friedgen led Maryland to three straight 10-win seasons and AP top-20 finishes. Maryland has had only one AP Top 25 finish since, unable to capitalize on the DMV recruiting scene and produce consistent contenders.
Since 2003, Maryland has had only two winning records in league play, and none in the Big Ten. As a member of the Big Ten’s East Division, Maryland has faced Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State annually but recorded only three total victories, two in 2014, its first season in the league.
Maryland also has endured difficult moments, from Friedgen’s firing to the death of Jordan McNair and the cultural issues within the program under coach DJ Durkin. Mike Locksley has brought stability and a strong connection to the area. Maryland opened a $149 million facility in 2022, a testament to its commitment to football, but needs similar gains in NIL.
“We can’t be afraid to dream big,” Locksley said recently. “It’s a lot of work and a lot of people have made sacrifices to get us to where we can, and we’re not going to apologize for it.”
Last conference or national title: 1993 conference (Pac-10)
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 53rd in expected five-year average, 86th in actual five-year average. One year does not a trend make, but obviously 2023’s surge to 10 wins and 18th in SP+ was encouraging. But from 2019-22, the Wildcats went just 10-31 with an average ranking of 98.8. We’ll find out soon if last year was a course correction or a flash in the pan.
Assets: Recent momentum entering Big 12; revived donor/alumni base; access to Phoenix area and California recruiting
Why and where they’re underachieving: Arizona isn’t underachieving at the moment, as it comes off of its first 10-win season since 2014 and highest AP postseason ranking (11) since 1998, when the Wildcats finished at No. 4. But the times in between have been very rough, and Arizona has struggled to keep pace financially in certain areas. Former coach Jedd Fisch, whose connections throughout college and NFL circles are immense, tapped into an Arizona alumni base and donors who jumped at the chance to be more involved. There have still been stretches of apathy around the program, perhaps none worse than at the end of coach Kevin Sumlin’s tenure.
The Wildcats were a consistent bowl team under Dick Tomey, Mike Stoops and Rich Rodriguez, who led the team to their only Pac-12 championship game appearance in 2014. UA also went a decade without a postseason appearance until 2008, and ended a five-year run of no bowls last year before Fisch left to take the Washington job. The university discovered a $177 million budget shortfall in November, which will continue to impact athletics during its Big 12 transition. Arizona made a notable athletic director hire in February with Desireé Reed-Francois, who left an SEC job (Missouri) to come to Tucson.
“Jedd Fisch did a great job of making it a better job, him and that staff, Wildcats coach Brent Brennan told ESPN. “The administration also did a good job of getting some great stuff in place. The facility’s fantastic, so there’s been some support that way. The efforts from the collective to make NIL relevant there is important, because that’s just a huge part of football on this level now.”
Last conference or national title: 1967 conference
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 58th in expected five-year average, 65th in actual five-year average. Maryland in reverse: After a couple of particularly bright seasons in 2019-20 (14-7 record, SP+ rankings of 24th and 18th), the Hoosiers fell apart under Tom Allen, winning just nine games in three seasons with an average ranking of 91.7.
Assets: Big Ten affiliation; proximity to Indianapolis/Louisville/Cincinnati/St. Louis recruiting markets; recent program investment
Why and where they’re underachieving: Indiana’s program outlook improved about a decade ago, as coach Kevin Wilson started to make bowl games and Tom Allen continued the success, culminating with a No. 12 AP finish in 2020, the program’s highest since its last Big Ten title team in 1967. But the steep decline since 2021 — Indiana went 9-27 and 3-25 in Big Ten play, leading to Allen’s firing — underscored the program’s struggles to sustain any level of success. Indiana has never had a 10-win season and only reached nine wins twice. The Hoosiers, meanwhile, have won three games or fewer 63 times, including 11 times since 1995.
Apathy has plagued Indiana at times. The school isn’t located in a state packed with top recruits. Allen also spotlighted Indiana’s struggles in NIL, which surfaced right around the time the team’s performance nosedived. Indiana’s ability to recruit and retain top players has suffered in recent years. The school did step up for new coach Curt Cignetti, a splashy hire who has delivered memorable sound bytes as he tries to inject confidence into the program.
“We have the state name on this, we’re Indiana,” Cignetti said. “Anybody with the proper commitment from the top can be successful with the right people, the right University commitment, the right leader, the right players.”
Never or rarely won tier
Last conference or national title: 1979 conference
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 34th in expected five-year average, 41st in actual five-year average. The Wolfpack have been consistently solid under Dave Doeren and haven’t underachieved against their expected ranking that much, but they’ve still only hit that No. 34 expectation once in the last five seasons, typically slipping slightly below.
Assets: Good location in recruit-rich state; engaged fan base, solid tradition of quarterbacks and NFL players
Why and where they’re underachieving: Certain ACC programs are correctly labeled basketball schools. NC State really isn’t one. Although the Wolfpack have a strong tradition in hoops, they care about football, too. Carter-Finley is one of the league’s best big-game atmospheres. NC State has made facilities investments and, unlike many programs on this list, has had coaching continuity with current boss Dave Doeren (11 seasons) and predecessors Tom O’Brien (six seasons), Chuck Amato (seven seasons) and Mike O’Cain (seven seasons). The team has made 12 bowl appearances since 2008 and hasn’t gone more than three years without making the postseason since 1995. NC State also has had its moments at the NFL draft, including three first-round selections in 2006 (including No. 1 overall Mario Williams), seven players picked in 2018 and 26 draft picks between 2012 and 2019.
The Wolfpack have won, averaging 7.8 wins over the past 10 years under Doeren, and have won eight or nine games 11 times since 2000. But NC State’s inability to reach the 10-win plateau (last accomplished in 2002) or end its interminable ACC title drought is maddening. The Wolfpack lost 14 of 15 games to Clemson before winning two of the teams’ last three meetings. Other big-game opportunities have gone against NC State, which hasn’t had an AP top-15 finish since 1974.
“There’s still a chip on our shoulder to be a champion, and to show that we can win 10 or more games,” Doeren recently told ESPN’s Andrea Adelson. “So there’s a lot to prove for us.”
Last conference or national title: 2007 conference (Pac-12)
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 35th in expected five-year average, 59th in actual five-year average. ASU has been a program in motion: After slipping to 72nd in SP+ in 2016, the Sun Devils improved for four straight years, and after peaking at 24th in the brief 2020 season, they regressed for three straight, collapsing to 107th in 2023.
Assets: Location near state’s biggest city; nation’s largest university; excitement around Big 12 move
Why and where they’re underachieving: Coaches and others around the sport have looked at Arizona State as a sleeping giant in the desert, wondering why the school hasn’t won more. ASU hasn’t finished in the final AP rankings since 2014, and has done so only six times since 1987. In 1996, the Sun Devils started 11-0 and reached the Rose Bowl, but are just 174-154 since that season. Arizona State has grown significantly as a university, and coaches have pointed to the school’s size and flexible academic options with online classes as a help in pursuing recruits and transfers. The Sun Devils produced five NFL first-round draft picks between 2000 and 2004 but have had their share of recruiting misses, including several quarterbacks from within the state who had success elsewhere.
The school has hired coaches who arrived with notable credentials — even Herm Edwards made four playoff appearances in the NFL — but none with direct connections to Arizona State or the area until Kenny Dillingham in late 2022. Dillingham has made “Activate the Valley” into a rallying cry and is trying to capitalize on the inherent advantages of the school and its location, in a growing area. He said Arizona State had only about $60,000 in NIL resources when he arrived, but the pot has grown.
“It’s gotten the fans in the region excited, selling more tickets and creating a home-field advantage,” Dillingham told ESPN. “It’s been an arms race for facilities for 35 years. For the last three years, it’s been an arms race for NIL, and that has to come from the fan base in the valley.”
Financially challenged tier
Teams appear here that have not reached their potential primarily because of the same reason: Money.
Last conference or national title: 2001 conference (Big 12), 1990 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 43rd in expected five-year average, 98th in actual five-year average. Like Nebraska, it’s easy to explain why Colorado has slipped over the last 20 years, but it’s inexplicable that the Buffaloes have ranked outside the SP+ top 70 for 14 of the last 16 seasons. Improving to 81st last year under Deion Sanders was major growth. That’s damning.
Assets: Solid long-term history that includes a national title; energized fan base following Deion Sanders hire; picturesque stadium near major market
Why and where they’re underachieving: Sanders’ arrival brought the national spotlight to Colorado in ways the program hasn’t seen since 1990. But the team’s result last fall — 4-8 overall, 1-8 in Pac-12 play — was all too familiar. Take out the 2016 season, when Colorado went 10-4 and reached the Pac-12 title game, and the program is 55-121 since 2008. The Buffs have won two league games or fewer 12 times during that span. The past 16 years don’t resemble the previous generations for Colorado, which had 15 AP top-20 finishes between 1969 and 2002.
A sexual assault scandal toward the end of Gary Barnett’s tenure was followed by years of financial turbulence, as Colorado fell behind in resources. Coaching turbulence didn’t help, as Jon Embree lasted only two seasons at CU, Mel Tucker left after one and the school fired Karl Dorrell following Year 3.
Colorado has made investments in Sanders, its NIL operations and at Folsom Field, which will have a new video board for the 2024 season. The team has been very active in the transfer portal in each of the past two offseasons.
“This truly exceeds all expectations,” Sanders told ESPN in early 2023. “From the school point of view, from the facilities point of view, from resources point of view, it exceeds everything.” The key is whether Colorado maintains its commitment, especially if and when Sanders departs.
Last conference or national title: 2009 conference, 1990 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 41st in expected five-year average, 100th in actual five-year average. The Yellow Jackets showed signs of life in 2023, winning seven games and jumping back into the SP+ top 70 for the first time in five years. But the four years before that were dire, with three three-win seasons and three finishes outside the top 100. Even when you’ve got financial issues, that shouldn’t happen.
Assets: Location in Atlanta recruiting market; long-term history of national success
Why and where they’re underachieving: Georgia might be the best job in college football, but it’s not the only major conference school in the state. Georgia Tech’s campus is located just north of downtown Atlanta and within driving distance to scores of top recruits. The program also has a history of success with four claimed national titles and 16 conference titles. Georgia Tech had five AP top-6 finishes in six years between 1951 and 1956, and made 18 consecutive bowl appearances under George O’Leary, Chan Gailey and Paul Johnson, who won the Orange Bowl in 2014. But the past decade has been difficult, as Georgia Tech has had four three-win seasons and topped seven victories only once.
Financial problems have hamstrung Georgia Tech in certain ways. In 2015, The Washington Post reported that the athletic department had racked up $229 million in debt, mainly because of facilities projects. Like many schools, Georgia Tech had to slash its budget because of losses during COVID-19. Things are shifting, though, as Georgia Tech last week announced a record fundraising total of about $78.2 million. Athletic director J Batt is a skilled fundraiser, and football coach Brent Key has been solid so far in taking over a challenging situation.
Last conference or national title: 2006 conference (Pac-10)
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 48th in expected five-year average, 68th in actual five-year average. The Bears haven’t underachieved at Colorado or Georgia Tech levels, but while they recruit at a top-50 level and pay top-50 salaries, they haven’t actually finished in the SP+ top 50 since 2015.
Assets: Elite public school in recruit-rich state; decent NFL pipeline; distant history of national success
Why and where they’re underachieving: Cal is the nation’s best public school, located in the heart of the Bay Area and in a top state for recruiting. The athletic program is often one of the leaders in producing Olympic athletes, but football has generally been a struggle, not only recently but for more than 70 years. Other than coach Jeff Tedford’s stretch of seven consecutive bowl appearances and three straight AP Top 25 finishes, Cal hasn’t sustained success. The team hasn’t won more than eight games since 2008 and recorded a winning conference record since 2009. Tedford showed that Cal can recruit and develop NFL players – Marshawn Lynch, DeSean Jackson, Cameron Jordan and Keenan Allen all played for him – but high-level team success has been much more fleeting.
The primary challenges around Cal, coaches there have told me over the years, are finances and motivation to win. The campus is located in an extremely expensive area, and the renovation to Memorial Stadium and construction of a student-athlete performance center in 2010-2012 racked up $445 million in debt, 54% of which the university agreed to absorb in 2018. But there’s lingering debt and Cal’s move to the ACC, especially at a reduced revenue share initially, won’t solve the issues any time soon. Cal’s athletic department will receive a $10 million annual subsidy from UCLA following UCLA’s move to the Big Ten, but hurdles remain for the Bears football program.
Should have done more tier
Teams here are capable of consistently competing for national titles but have endured extended droughts.
Last conference or national title: 2020 conference, 2014 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: second in expected five-year average, second in actual five-year average. Ranking second nationally is never going to equate with underachievement. But when the bar’s that high, you lose control of your conference to your main rival (Michigan has won three straight Big Tens) and you haven’t won a national title in almost 10 years despite many opportunities, it’s going to feel like its own type of underachievement.
Assets: Massive stadium with national and regional fan base; top operations facilities, well-funded NIL and deep booster base; flagship school in Midwest’s top recruiting state; championship history
Why and where they’re underachieving: Ohio State isn’t just one of the top teams in college football, but one of the most consistently elite in all of American sports during the past 90 years. Since 1933, the Buckeyes have the nation’s best win percentage (.766), ahead of Oklahoma (.755) and Alabama (.741). More recently, Ohio State has lost more than three games in a season just twice in the past 22 seasons. Since coach Urban Meyer arrived in 2012, the Buckeyes rank second nationally in winning percentage (.891), trailing only Alabama (.899) and ahead of both Clemson (.855) and Georgia (.822). But Alabama has won four national titles in that span and Clemson and Georgia both have two. Ohio State, meanwhile, captured only one championship during the stretch and owns only two since 1970. The team has won more games (514) since 1971 than any other program.
The Buckeyes’ inability to win it all is mystifying, given their sustained dominance. Since claiming the first CFP national championship, Ohio State has only one CFP win (2020 semifinal against Clemson). The Buckeyes largely outplayed Georgia in the 2022 semifinal — with a chance to face TCU in the title game — but fell short after a series of late miscues. Ohio State has always recruited and developed top players, and showed off its NIL prowess this past offseason. Current coach Ryan Day has dramatically upgraded the quarterback position. But postseason success has been fleeting for Day, who also must end a losing streak to Michigan.
Last conference or national title: 2023 conference, 2013 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 15th in expected five-year average, 50th in actual five-year average. Like others on this list, FSU has obviously begun to charge in the right direction. But five-year averages are a reminder of just how far the Seminoles fell before the rebound. From 2018-21, they suffered four straight losing seasons with an average SP+ ranking of 77.3. How does that happen?
Assets: Prime location in a top recruiting state and bordering another (Georgia); history of national dominance and producing NFL talent; recent financial upgrades for facilities and NIL
Why and where they’re underachieving: FSU’s level of underachievement isn’t nearly as glaring as other programs on this list, and the Seminoles are clearly poised to be an annual CFP contender under coach Mike Norvell. But few programs can dream bigger than Florida State when its coaching, recruiting and resources are properly aligned. Although the program had its warts under Jimbo Fisher, FSU had five straight AP top-15 finishes, including the 2013 national championship, while also signing ESPN top-10 recruiting classes from 2012 to 2017 (top-5 classes in all but one year). The Seminoles also will be judged, perhaps unfairly, by their historic surge from 1987 to 2000, when they won two national titles and nine straight ACC titles, while never finishing worse than No. 5 in the final AP poll.
The past two decades have been a bit bumpier, especially toward the end of the Bobby Bowden and Fisher eras. FSU went 26-33 from 2017 to 2021 before turning a corner under Norvell. Finances/resources became an issue late in Fisher’s tenure and prompted his move to Texas A&M, but athletic director Michael Alford’s assertive leadership has put Florida State on stronger footing, as the school pushes for a possible ACC departure. After the CFP snub in 2023, regular appearances in the expanded playoff field will become the standard expectation for Norvell and the Noles.
On-notice tier
Teams in this tier haven’t quite reached full-fledged underachiever status, but they need to deliver better results soon, especially with the expanded playoff.
Last conference or national title: 1998 conference and national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: seventh in expected five-year average, 22nd in actual five-year average. The Vols have righted the ship of late, winning 27 games with an average SP+ ranking of 12.7 over the last three years. But they were outside of the top 70 for three of the four seasons before that, and even averaging a No. 13ish ranking is low considering recruiting and spending levels.
Assets: Massive stadium and fan base; top NIL setup; history of regional and national success; flagship program in solid recruiting state
Why and where they’re underachieving: Tennessee’s trajectory has improved recently under Josh Heupel, but the Vols are still trying to recapture the national status they held in the late 1980s and throughout the 1990s. They recorded nine AP top 10 finishes between 1985 and 2001, including the 1998 national title and a 73-14 record from 1995 to 2001 under coach Phillip Fulmer. Tennessee has since had only one top 10 finish, in 2022, and went 15 years without a 10-win season. After having only two coaches (Fulmer and Johnny Majors) from 1977 to 2008, Tennessee had four during the ensuing 12 years. The school also cycled through athletic directors and presidents and had cringeworthy moments at the start and end of Jeremy Pruitt’s disastrous tenure as coach.
Although rivals Georgia and Florida both have gone through with their own performance dips, Tennessee hasn’t fully capitalized, not winning an SEC East Division title since 2007. The program has leadership stability with athletic director Danny White and Heupel, a hire greeted with some skepticism that has clicked so far. Tennessee is harnessing its large group of fans and donors into an impressive NIL operation, landing quarterback Nico Iamaleava and others. The next step is to make the CFP for the first time in the next few seasons.
Last conference or national title: 2013 conference, 2010 national
SP+ expectations vs. SP+ results: 14th in expected five-year average, 23rd in actual five-year average. It’s always tricky judging Auburn’s performance when the Tigers play and model themselves after Georgia and Alabama every year. But it’s safe to say that a 23-26 record, with an average SP+ ranking of 35.8 over the last four years isn’t in any way good enough.
Assets: Large stadium and fan/donor base; excellent NIL setup; sneaky good recruiting location near Atlanta and not far from northern Florida
Why and where they’re underachieving: Auburn isn’t the most decorated program in its own state and has gone through periods of poor performance and internal dysfunction. But the capability is there on the Plains. The Tigers won the national title in 2010 and went to the championship game three years later. They have 19 AP top 10 finishes, 13 since 1983, and were one of the nation’s most consistently strong programs from the early 1980s through the mid 1990s.
Other than Georgia, Auburn is the closest SEC campus to Atlanta, one of the nation’s top recruiting hubs, and the Tigers can easily access south Georgia and north Florida. Auburn fans are known for their passion, and the school has been ahead of the curve with its NIL setup, which coach Hugh Freeze is starting to capitalize on.
The next step is finding consistency after a turbulent last decade that featured only one 10-win season, one top 10 finish and one season of fewer than three SEC losses — all in 2017. The SEC is only getting tougher with Texas and Oklahoma joining, but Auburn should position itself for CFP contention under Freeze in the next few seasons.