On Saturday, two first-time Wimbledon finalists will compete for the title, as Jasmine Paolini takes on Barbora Krejcikova.
Paolini has had a breakout year, and just played in her first-ever major final at the French Open. Krejcikova won the 2021 French Open title, and wants to match that feat again. Who will win? We asked our experts:
What can Paolini do to defeat Krejcikova?
D’Arcy Maine: These two have only played against each other only once — in the first round of qualifying at the 2018 Australian Open. Both are so far removed from that match that Paolini didn’t even remember it when speaking to the media on Thursday, instead saying they had never played each other. (Krejcikova won that match, for the record.)
After playing in the French Open final just over a month ago, Paolini now knows what it’s like to play for a major championship, and all the nerves and emotions that come with it. She’ll need to utilize that experience in order to play her game from the start, and not let the moment intimidate her. She’ll also need to keep the same positive energy we’ve seen (and fans have fallen in love with) throughout the tournament.
She told reporters before she knew who she would be facing that she would need to improve her serve and control the point more on Saturday regardless of opponent, and that could be particularly crucial against Krejcikova, who is more than capable of doing the same. Ultimately, Paolini will need to remain as confident and tenacious as she’s been throughout the fortnight and battle until the very last point.
Bill Connelly: She has to keep Krejcikova off-balance, because if Krejcikova has her timing down, she’s just about the cleanest ball striker in tennis. Paolini does such a nice job of adapting and showing willingness to experiment with her tactics, and that’s going to be immensely important. Move Krejcikova around, vary speeds, trust her own fitness (which was a difference-maker against Donna Vekic in the semis). And never give Krejcikova the same look twice. Krejcikova just kept hitting the ball bigger and more accurately as the match progressed against Rybakina, but Paolini is certainly willing to shift to Plans B, C, D, et cetera, to find answers.
Sam Borden: I agree with Bill in that the key to Paolini’s success is her ability to meet whatever the moment asks for: Sometimes that’s a tactical switch, and often it’s mental resilience, like when she missed on a couple of match point opportunities against Vekic but didn’t let everything slip away. She knows the weaknesses that come with being perpetually undersized, but is very creative about finding ways to overcome that in whatever situation she faces.
What can Krejcikova do to defeat Paolini?
Maine: One thing stood out to me most about Krejcikova as she lost the first four games against Rybakina on Thursday: She didn’t panic and remained composed. And even with the first set feeling out of reach, she fought as hard as she could and made Rybakina work to close it out. In doing so, she seemed to will herself into the match and into the fight. She later said she was “in the zone” after winning her first game and she certainly appeared to be increasingly more aggressive, and energized, with every game she won.
Krejcikova has proven she’s capable of beating just about everyone during this fortnight — she held off No. 11 seed Danielle Collins and No. 13 seed Jelena Ostapenko in the Round of 16 and quarterfinals, respectively — and has a varied game that can frustrate the sport’s best. If she is able to utilize her variety, find that “zone” early and stop whatever momentum Paolini is able to find, she just might be hoisting her second major trophy on Saturday.
Connelly: Swing big. It was one of the keys to beating Rybakina — after a meek start in which she lost the first four games, every stroke just got bigger and bigger, and she won 15 of the last 23 games. It’s the primary advantage she’s got over the speedy Paolini. You can’t really pull anything from their lone professional matchup, a 6-2, 6-1 win for Krejcikova in 2018 Australian Open qualification, but it’s noteworthy that in that match she served aces 13% of the time (she’s typically around 5%) and won 74% of Paolini’s second-serve points. When she got a chance to dictate the tempo, she went for it, and that will likely be a key part of this match too.
Borden: I think the biggest obstacle she’ll face is the crowd — everyone has fallen in love with Paolini and her incredible attitude, so Krejcikova will likely have much of the sentiment against her. She’s shown in the past that she’s more than capable of handling high-stress situations — 2021 French Open title plus 10(!) other major doubles trophies — but the atmosphere of Centre Court at Wimbledon, with fans cheering for your opponent, is a different carton of strawberries. If she can navigate the emotional element, she’ll have every chance to win.
Who will win?
Maine: Rybakina said it might come down to whoever can best physically recover from their semifinal match and she might be right. After watching both of these exceptional semifinals, the only thing I feel certain about is that we’re going to have a competitive and spirited final on Saturday. However, if I have to pick a winner, and I will likely change my mind on this several times, I’ll go with Krejcikova in three entertaining sets.
Connelly: Looking back at her French Open and Wimbledon runs, I’ve picked against Paolini at least seven times. She’s won all but one of those matches. Am I learning my lesson? Nope! Krejcikova is a top-five caliber player when healthy and in a rhythm, and for the first time in a while, she is both of those things. It would be a shock if this didn’t go to three sets considering how many tight sets both have played (and how well they’ve both played in them), but Krejcikova is just cracking the ball right now. She wins in three.
Borden: Paolini. The loss to Iga Swiatek at the French gave her some needed experience on the biggest stages, and it’s hard to bet against a player who is on a heater like this one. Paolini’s will and fight are unparalleled, and while Krejcikova is in tremendous form, too, I think Paolini gets it done in a tight three-setter. Andiamo!