Knecht’s fall, Edey’s rise: College coaches react to the NBA draft

The narrative ahead of the 2024 NBA draft was that the talent pool was down relative to previous years. Adding to that, the first round was projected to be older — and bigger, height-wise — than it was in past seasons.

Did Wednesday and Thursday play out that way?

ESPN spoke to a dozen college coaches about some of the important storylines that emerged over the course of the two-day event.

According to several sources, the increased age and size of the first-round draft pool are correlated, and they are directly related to several developments at the college level: name, image and likeness (NIL); the additional year given to student-athletes because of the COVID-impacted 2020-21 season; and the increased prevalence of the transfer portal.

Zach Edey, 22, spent four years at Purdue; Providence‘s Devin Carter is 22; Tennessee‘s Dalton Knecht is 23; and back-end first-rounders Dillon Jones (22), Baylor Scheierman (23) and Terrence Shannon Jr. (23) are all older than the average early draft pick.

“All of college basketball is a little bit older right now,” one college coach said. “I do think that while college basketball is pretty soon going to start getting younger again, the NBA — especially in the back half of the first round — seems to be more willing to draft established guys that can make major impacts than taking bets on better long-term projects.”

Another coach said, “It’s just the way college basketball is right now. “The age range is anywhere between 18-24 years old. … The NBA draft is at the mercy of what’s going on in the college landscape.”

As ESPN’s Jeremy Woo wrote before the draft, as many as eight centers were projected as potential first-round picks in this year’s NBA draft, compared to just one in 2023 and three in 2022.

“It speaks to the copycat nature of the league,” a college coach said. “Edey was talked about as a first-rounder out of nowhere after being in the 40s for 18 months, and then he goes into workouts and dominates. It just takes one or two decision-makers or influential people to turn opinion. It’s cyclical to a degree, and right now there’s a conversation about guys that can win in the [NBA] playoffs.”

One NBA scout added, “Bigs have historically been pushed back to college basketball and now they’re getting paid more than what they would make on a two-way [contract]. Do they roll the dice and end up taking a two-way? Or do they take the money from college?”

Most college coaches also agreed the talent level at the top was down, but the draft still had impressive depth through the rest of the first round and into the early part of the second round.

“There’s not a lot of players in those first couple tiers that are no-brainers,” one college coach said. “Someone is inevitably going to rise up … but in terms of pure talent, no-brainer All-NBA guys, you’d be hard-pressed to find that in this draft. But picks five through, say, 28, is it really that big a drop-off from a talent perspective? Guys from this draft in the mid-40s, mid-50s, undrafted, they’ll make All-Star teams.”

“I’m interested to see what this draft looks like in a few years,” another coach said. “There’s a question mark on pretty much all these guys. I think there are fewer surefire Hall of Fame potential candidates. There’s fewer certainties on guys that will make, like, nine All-Star games. But there’s strong depth of talent toward the middle and late first round.”

With the G League Ignite program — which produced lottery picks Ron Holland II and Matas Buzelis this year — being shut down, college coaches don’t believe the lack of elite college talent is a trend with staying power.

“It was a unique situation,” one said. “Four of the top 12 guys were international players, it was a stronger-than-usual international crop, a weaker-than-usual college crop, two guys coming from the G League. With the G League not a factor anymore, I don’t get the sense that Overtime Elite is going to be a huge threat to college basketball.”

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Kentucky and UConn (and France) dominate the top 10

Of the first eight picks, three — including No. 1 Zaccharie Risacher and No. 2 Alex Sarr — were from France, two were from Kentucky and two from UConn.

“France has done a great job identifying really good young talents, giving them opportunities to play,” one coach with experience overseas said. “There’s no bigger evidence than how many guys went in the first round last night. There’s a transition to the American game; it’s more physical, it’s definitely more athletic. For some guys, that happens quicker than others.”

Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard wasn’t in preseason mock drafts after being one of the less heralded members of the Wildcats’ 2023 recruiting class, but he quickly moved up boards after finishing with 13 points, 3 3-pointers and 4 steals in just 16 minutes in an early-season game against Kansas. Sheppard ended the season averaging 12.5 points, 4.1 rebounds, 4.5 assists and 2.5 steals while shooting a ridiculous 52.1% from 3-point range. He was picked third overall, the first college player chosen, by the Houston Rockets.

“Everybody in the country would have loved him,” one SEC coach said. “He’s as smart as they come. He’s about as skillful as they come. He’s tough as s—. He gets on every loose ball. He rallies the team. He’s got a real winning mindset and approach. His intangibles are off the charts. There’s a lot to love.”

“His shooting splits were insane,” another opposing coach said. “Some of those shooting splits, they’re up there with a Steph Curry.”

On the negative side, he measured shorter than 6-foot-2 without shoes at the Combine, and his wingspan was just over 6-3.

“It never crossed my mind that he could be a top-three player,” one coach said. “The only question is, are the physical tools in the same box as the rarefied air he was drafted?”

“He really knows how to play. Excellent shooter, good feel as a passer, tests out as a really good athlete,” another said. “But he’s 6-1 barefoot, kind of a 2-guard, some of the struggle he might have defensively against the quickest players in the NBA — that would be a little bit of a concern for me.”

Teammate Rob Dillingham — who went eighth overall to the Minnesota Timberwolves after a trade with the San Antonio Spurs — raised similar physical profile concerns.

“He’s a little bit slight of build,” one coach said. “You put a big, strong, really athletic guy on him. You can be physical with him. He’s kind of dependent on creating separation with his quickness, with his dribbling ability. The question for him at the next level is at the other end of the floor. Will he consistently find someone he can guard? He’s going to be giving up size.”

“The number of 6-1, 165-pound guards that have become great players, it’s a short list,” another added.

But Dillingham also might be the most dynamic perimeter scorer in the draft. Despite starting just one game, he averaged 15.2 points and shot 44.4% from 3-point range in 23.3 minutes. He had 35 against Tennessee, 27 against Texas A&M and 23 on three other occasions.

“He’s uniquely talented with the ball, he’s got great handles, he’s more explosive than I think people realize,” one coach said. “And he shot the ball at a really good rate. I loved [him] for Minnesota.”

UConn freshman Stephon Castle and sophomore Donovan Clingan went to the Spurs and Portland Trail Blazers, respectively, after helping the Huskies to a second straight national championship.

Castle entered college as a five-star prospect but not necessarily a projected top-five draft pick. After missing six games early in the season because of a knee injury, though, the 6-6 wing took off over the second half of the season and played arguably his best basketball in the NCAA tournament. He averaged 11.1 points in 34 games but had 21 points against Alabama in the Final Four and 15 points in the title game against Purdue, establishing himself as one of the truly elite perimeter defenders in the country against the likes of Terrence Shannon Jr. and Boo Buie.

“He took on whatever assignment was necessary to win,” one Big East coach said. “He became one of the best perimeter defenders in the country, did a lot of important winning things. Got on the glass, was a great cutter, was a guy who could collapse a defense and spray the ball out to the perimeter. He turned his defense up to another level at UConn.”

“Steph Castle is probably the one high-end prospect that is most likely to pan out,” another opposing coach said. “That he wasn’t picked in the top three, let alone the first college player, was surprising.”

Clingan, meanwhile, was one of the biggest breakout stars in college basketball last season. After spending his freshman year behind Adama Sanogo — averaging 6.9 points, 5.6 rebounds and 1.8 blocks in just 13 minutes per game — he became perhaps the most impactful defensive player in the country as a sophomore. Some of what he did is eye-popping: Illinois went 0-for-19 on field goal attempts contested by Clingan in their Elite Eight game, and Xavier scored 12 points in 35 possessions with him on the floor in a January game.

“The biggest thing in terms of his growth … was opportunity,” a Big East coach said. “He played behind Sanogo, was able to come in and play against a guy who was worn down or was maybe a second-string center. Then he was hurt in the offseason, which bled into the start of the season, then hurt again against Seton Hall. Once he got into shape, he had an ability to negate pick-and-rolls, eliminate the rim, and he became good as a transporter of the ball with dribble handoffs, ball screens, was dangerous in the lob game.”

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Two-time Wooden Award winner Zach Edey lands in the top 10

The 7-4 Purdue star has been the biggest storyline — figuratively and literally — in college basketball over the past two years, sparking constant debate on whether he can succeed in the NBA. He withdrew from the draft last year after being projected as a second-round pick, but after winning back-to-back Wooden Awards and leading the Boilermakers to the national championship game, he went earlier than expected Wednesday night.

The Memphis Grizzlies took him at No. 9, looking to pair him with Jaren Jackson Jr. in the frontcourt and provide some interior balance to Ja Morant on the perimeter. The Grizzlies had been strongly connected to Clingan, but after he was taken, Edey was clearly the next best option on the board.

Some NBA scouts might have disagreed earlier in Edey’s career, but many college coaches believe Edey will be a productive NBA player.

“He’s an uncomfortable archetype for people to reason with, but [the critiques] are not based on anything you see out there on the floor,” one coach said. “Sure, he doesn’t fly up and down the court, he’s not the most mobile pick-and-roll defender, he’s very traditional in the way he plays the position. That would be the knock against him, for sure. But I don’t know how anybody who played against him in college would say, I don’t see it with him. He’s dominated every game, pretty much, for the last two years. And when he got on the workout circuit, it became clear … he’s potentially dominant in a per-36 or per-32 role, or whatever it is.”

Concerns remain, however, about what happens when he’s not the focal point of the offense.

“The Grizzlies aren’t going to throw the ball down in the post to him every single time,” one coach said. “He’s a better mover defensively than he gets credit for in drop coverage, but he’s not a great mover defensively. What made him so good in college is not really translatable to the NBA level.”

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Tennessee’s Dalton Knecht is the biggest faller — and the biggest steal

As Wednesday night went on, the continued drop of Knecht emerged as perhaps the night’s biggest story. Projected as high as No. 6, Knecht fell all the way to the Los Angeles Lakers at No. 17.

Needless to say, opposing coaches felt Knecht was the steal of the draft.

“[The Lakers] needed shooting,” one said. “He can really shoot and score. I was surprised he wasn’t picked in the top 10. There’s concerns about his defense, concerns about being 23 years old, but he can really play.”

Arguably the best player in college basketball last season not named Zach Edey, the 6-6 former junior college and Northern Colorado transfer established himself as the best pure scorer in the draft class after averaging 21.7 points on 39.7% 3-point shooting at Tennessee.. He went for 40 against Kentucky, 39 against Auburn, 37 against North Carolina and 37 against Purdue.

“Playing against him was really hard,” an SEC coach said. “If you put a smaller guy on him, he got better [at] driving that guy, putting a shoulder in his chest, drawing contact and drawing fouls. If you put a bigger guy on him, someone he couldn’t overwhelm at the rim, he would run around screens and bang a bunch of 3s. For the high-major level, he was a big matchup problem.

“I loved who he got drafted by. A guy with that size, that shoots it that well, they’re just not that common,” he said. “Not just the height, but he’s kind of thick. He’s not a string bean. Him … playing in an offense with a non-shooting big or two, he adds something … they don’t always have enough of. I like the fact he’s playing for JJ Redick.”

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Devin Carter skyrockets into the lottery

It’s hard to find a prospect who rose up draft boards during the spring more than Carter. The 6-3 junior guard began his career at South Carolina before transferring to Providence, but he really took off last season, especially after star forward Bryce Hopkins‘ injury.

He won Big East Player of the Year honors after averaging 19.7 points, 8.7 rebounds and 3.6 assists, shooting nearly 38% from 3 and solidifying himself as one of the best defensive players in college basketball. After Hopkins’ injury in early January, Carter averaged 21.9 points, 9.1 rebounds and 3.9 assists the rest of the way.

He continued to rise in the rankings during the pre-draft process and ultimately found himself heading to the Sacramento Kings with the 13th pick.

“I was really impressed with the ownership he took of that group when Hopkins went down,” one Big East coach said. “Last year, there started to be an appreciation for him within the league. Like, ‘Man, Devin Carter is pretty good.’ He was a solid player at South Carolina, but his ability to impact the game offensively, especially down the stretch of his first year at Providence, caught people by surprise. I don’t think there was a player in the country that his team needed more than him. His intensity, how hard he plays, the commitment level that he has, to really maximize his effort on the floor, is cool to witness. He has the potential to be a really, really good defender.

“To some degree, his production was aided by him being the guy. He took whatever shot he wanted to take, pulled some deep, deep 3s in all kinds of situations. He was really, really aggressive, so it will be interesting to see as he transitions [to the NBA]. As he takes on a different role, does his efficiency take a hit?”

Another coach who scouted him felt a role where he isn’t required to do a little bit of everything will benefit him.

“A lot of times, he got stuck with the ball in late-clock situations and chaos situations where it was like, ‘Hey, figure this out for us,'” he said. “He’s got the athleticism, he’s got the defense, he’s got the ability to shot-create. He’s one more step in the development of his jumper from being one hell of a player.”

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Weber State star goes in the first round

With several big-name prospects still on the board, the Washington Wizards surprised everyone by selecting Dillon Jones at No. 26 (and then sending him to the Oklahoma City Thunder in a trade). He’s shorter than 6-5 without shoes, but he was incredibly productive at the college level, winning Big Sky Player of the Year honors last season and earning all-conference recognition in each of the past three seasons.

He averaged 21.0 points, 9.5 rebounds and 5.3 assists last season, maintaining his production against stiffer competition: 29 points and 10 rebounds against Saint Mary’s; 13 points and 12 boards against Nevada; and 17 points, 11 rebounds and 7 assists against Wyoming. He also averaged 15.5 points and 11.0 rebounds against NCAA tournament teams Yale and Colgate.

“Dillon is an elite playmaking guard who can play multiple positions on the floor,” a Big Sky coach said. “He has the size to play 1 through 4 in the NBA. He has a unique frame and uses his size to put smaller defenders on his strong hips and get in the lane, or blow by bigger defenders. He is a much-improved shooter and draws fouls.”

Despite his impressive production, going in the first round still caught opposing coaches by surprise.

“He struggled defensively in our league, and I wonder how that side of the ball translates. He had no desire or ambition to do so,” one said. “I never saw him as a first-rounder, but if you see him as a Draymond Green-type 5, he can be put in a different bucket.”

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One-time projected top pick goes at the bottom of the first round

One month into the college season, Isaiah Collier emerged as the projected No. 1 pick in ESPN’s mock draft. The 6-4 USC guard was the No. 1 recruit in the 2023 high school class, then put up 18 points and six assists in his debut against Kansas State. One week later, Collier had 23 points and 24 points against UC Irvine and Brown, respectively.

A combination of a mid-January hand injury and USC’s struggles as a team caused Collier to be mostly inconsistent the rest of the season, although he did average 20.6 points, 4.1 assists and just 2.1 turnovers in his first seven games after returning from injury.

Entering Wednesday, Collier’s draft range was vast. He lasted all the way until No. 29, when the Utah Jazz picked him.

“He’s not too far removed from being considered the first pick in the draft,” one coach said. “If you had told somebody two months ago, you could get Collier with the 29th pick, you’d take it and run. And see if you can get him back to what made him such an attractive pick.”

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Kansas Jayhawks forward Furphy was ranked No. 18 in ESPN’s mock draft, while Duke‘s Filipowski — who entered the season as a surefire lottery pick — was No. 21. Both ended up going almost immediately in the second round, however: Filipowski to the Jazz at No. 32, and Furphy to the Indiana Pacers at No. 35.

Filipowski was one of the best big men in college basketball the past two seasons, averaging 15.1 points and 8.9 rebounds as a freshman and earning first-team All-ACC and second-team All-America honors as a sophomore after putting up 16.4 points and 8.3 boards. The 6-11 power forward also shot nearly 35% from 3 last season.

“There are things that you can pick apart about his game, whatever the criticism is, but I don’t think there’s many guys in the draft that are as accomplished as he is as a college player and as a high school player,” one coach said. “I think he deserved to be a first-round pick.”

“He had the hip surgery and he was never overly mobile in the first place,” another coach countered. “He doesn’t move great, he doesn’t keep guys in front of him. He played in a Duke offense where he got a touch every time down the floor and things ran through him. NBA teams aren’t going to do that.”

Furphy, the 19-year-old, 6-8 wing from Australia, was a role player for the first half of Kansas’ season but really emerged as a key player during Big 12 play. He averaged 9.0 points on the season but 13.6 points and 7.3 rebounds on 39.6% 3-point shooting during a 12-game stretch in January and February.

“I was surprised to see him go into the second round, only because I had heard a couple teams in the 20s liked him,” one opposing coach said. “He’s a guy who’s very young, but a pretty good athlete with shooting potential. But it’s one of those things, where you get thrown into an environment where you’re working out against older players, more physical players, it’s a work in progress.”

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Bronny James goes in the second round

The USC freshman heard his name called at No. 55, joining his father with the Lakers — the expected landing spot, especially once it was reported that James had only worked out for the Lakers and Phoenix Suns.

The McDonald’s All American guard had suffered a cardiac arrest during a workout in July and missed the first eight games of the college basketball season. He was on a minutes restriction for a few weeks and was understandably inconsistent upon return.

He finished the season averaging 4.8 points — but coaches who scouted him in high school and college are optimistic about his NBA career.

“He’ll probably be with the team early in the year, then spend the majority of the year with South Bay,” one coach said, referring to the Lakers’ G League team. “I think he’ll be a better professional player than college player. He’ll be out there on the floor a lot in the G League. He can really guard the ball, he has good feel and instincts as a passer. He’s got to get better in terms of creating his own individual offense, but he’s improved as a shooter and is capable of at least being a league-average catch-and-shoot guy from 3. I think he can probably get better at shooting the 3 off the dribble, which you need to do a lot.

“It’s maybe not something in Year 1 or Year 2, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he was in an NBA rotation down the road.”

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Other quick notes

– While there have been questions over Kel’el Ware‘s motor since he was a five-star high school prospect, multiple coaches were on board with the Miami Heat selecting him at No. 15 , even if it’s a surprising fit.

“He’s very different from the usual Miami profile,” one said. “But they have confidence in what their building is able to bring out of people. He’s talented. If he takes to the Heat Way, they could have something.”

“Kel’el Ware is one of the most talented players I’ve ever gone up against,” another added. “There are question marks about how passionate he is or how coachable he is. But as far as physical tools, he’s about as good as they come.”

– Former Illinois star Terrence Shannon Jr. dropping to the Minnesota Timberwolves at No. 27 was viewed as a steal.

“I get the age factor and the off-floor situation that has now been cleared,” a coach said. “But if the situation didn’t happen, we would be talking about a back-end lottery guy. They got tremendous value.”

– Four more second-rounders who drew mentions from coaches were Marquette‘s Tyler Kolek, Colorado‘s KJ Simpson, Minnesota‘s Cam Christie and Kentucky’s Antonio Reeves.

On Kolek: “He’s super competitive. Won a lot of games in college. Could be a spark plug off the bench for a team that needs someone to come in and play hard and get a basket.”

On Simpson: “He was the best player on Colorado this year, and they had two guys drafted in the top 20.”

On Christie: “He’s someone you’re going to take a flier on in the 40s. With his size, with his NBA pedigree. He’s still really raw. But I get taking him in the 40s.”

On Reeves: “I like him as a shot-maker. He’s gotten significantly better defensively during his time at Kentucky. He’s somebody that can come in as a 10th to 13th man and crack an NBA rotation.”