The group stage at Euro 2024 is starting to take shape after the first round of matches.
So who could book their progress in the second set of matches? And who has work to do? We run through all six groups and set out the permutations.
The top two teams in each group go through to the round of 16, along with the four best runners-up. The third-placed scenarios can be found at the bottom of the article.
This article will be updated after each group stage fixture.
NB: As there has been only one draw in the group stage, there is a highly unlikely scenario where five groups could have three teams on six points. It means that at least at the start of matchday 2, getting to six points doesn’t necessarily secure qualification straight away — though it may well come through the results in other groups as the matchday develops. Indeed, a draw between Croatia and Albania in the first game on Wednesday would change all the permutations and guarantee that six points takes a team through.
TIEBREAKERS:
If teams are equal on points, they will be separated by the following criteria.
1. Head-to-head points
2. Head-to-head goal difference
3. Head-to-head goals scored
If three teams are level on points, a mini-league is created only involving the results of the matches between the teams in question.
4. If after applying stages 1-3 some teams are still level, it is reapplied just to those teams. For instance, England, Slovenia and Serbia are level on points; after applying 1-3 England are first but Slovenia and Serbia cannot be separated in the three-team mini-league. The direct head-to-head between Slovenia and Serbia would determine second place.
If teams still cannot be separated, the following are applied:
5. Group goal difference
6. Group goals scored
7. Penalty shootout, if the two teams are playing each other on the final matchday
8. If they don’t play each other, lower disciplinary points (1pt yellow, 3pts red via two yellows, 3pts direct red, 4pts yellow followed by direct red)
9. European Qualifiers overall ranking, unless Germany are involved. If Germany are involved, then it would be a random drawing of lots.
GROUP A
Remaining fixtures:
June 19
Germany vs. Hungary
Scotland vs. Switzerland
June 23
Switzerland vs. Germany
Scotland vs. Hungary
Germany: If Germany beat Hungary then qualification will be assured if Switzerland avoid defeat in the later game.
Switzerland: The Swiss effectively have the same equation as Germany. It means that if Germany beat Hungary, Switzerland go through with a win.
Hungary: Won’t be able to finish in the top two if they lose to Germany and then Switzerland win/draw against Scotland. Would remain in the hunt for a best-third place position.
Scotland: Can’t take an automatic place if Germany win/draw against Hungary and Scotland then lose to the Swiss. But there would be a last-day showdown with Hungary for third.
GROUP B
Remaining fixtures:
June 24
Albania vs. Spain
Croatia vs. Italy
Spain: If Croatia win/draw in the first game of matchday two against Albania, Spain will qualify with a victory over Italy.
Italy: If Albania win/draw on Wednesday, Italy will be through with a victory over Spain.
Albania: Cannot finish in the top two if they lose to Croatia and Spain win/draw.
Croatia: Will not be able to finish in the top two if they are beaten by Albania and Italy win/draw.
GROUP C
Remaining fixtures:
June 20
Slovenia vs. Serbia
Denmark vs. England
June 25
England vs. Slovenia
Denmark vs. Serbia
England: Will qualify with a victory over Denmark, which will be as group winners if Serbia win/draw in the earlier match.
Denmark: Cannot qualify or be ruled out of the top two on matchday two.
Slovenia: As with Denmark, nothing can be decided from their match vs. Serbia.
Serbia: Will be unable to finish in the top two if they lose to Slovenia, and eliminated completely if Denmark then beat England.
GROUP D
Remaining fixtures:
June 21
Poland vs. Austria
Netherlands vs. France
June 25
France vs. Poland
Netherlands vs. Austria
Netherlands: If Poland win/draw in the earlier match on Friday, Netherlands will qualify with a victory over France.
France: If Austria win/draw in the first fixture, France will be through with a victory over Spain.
Poland: Cannot finish in the top two if they lose to Austria and France then win/draw.
Austria: Will not be able to finish in the top two if they are beaten by Poland and Netherlands win/draw.
GROUP E
Remaining fixtures:
June 26
Ukraine vs. Belgium
Slovakia vs. Romania
Romania: If Slovakia beat Ukraine, Romania can seal qualification with a win over Belgium.
Slovakia: If they can get a victory against Ukraine their place in the round of 16 will be booked if Romania beat Belgium.
Belgium: Won’t be able to finish in the top two if Slovakia win/draw against Ukraine and then Belgium lose to Romania. Would remain in the hunt to go through in third.
Ukraine: Can’t take an automatic place if they lose to Slovakia and Romania then win/draw against Belgium. But there would be a final-match showdown with Belgium for third.
GROUP F
Remaining fixtures:
June 22
Georgia vs. Czechia
Turkey vs. Portugal
June 26
Czechia vs. Turkey
Georgia vs. Portugal
Turkey: If Georgia win/draw in the first game, Turkey will be through with a victory over Portugal.
Portugal: If Czechia win/draw against Georgia, Portugal will qualify with a victory over Turkey.
Czechia: Will not be able to finish in the top two if they are beaten by Georgia and Turkey win/draw.
Georgia: Cannot finish in the top two if they lose to Czechia and Portugal win/draw.
RANKING OF BEST THIRD-PLACED TEAMS
The four best runners-up will go through to the round of 16.
This format has been in place for two previous editions, and both times four points secured progress. At Euro 2020, Ukraine sneaked through on three points. At Euro 2016, both Northern Ireland and eventual-winners Portugal made it on three points.
It’s still very early days to determine how many points will be required.
The third-place ranking is determined first by:
1. Points
2. Goal difference
3. Goals scored
4. Wins
5. Lower disciplinary points
6. European Qualifiers overall ranking, unless Germany involved. If Germany are involved, random draw.
While this is the current top six, the ranking can flip around very quickly by another team leaping into third place in a group, or dropping down into it.