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Andre Snellings, ESPN
Just one game on the NBA playoff schedule tonight: Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks, Game 2.
Game 1 was a slugfest, and the Pacers were in control for the majority of it. The fast pace, the high score and, most importantly, the bench play all favored Indiana. And the controversial ending has to have the Pacers eager to get out there and try to win Game 2.
Let’s dig into this matchup and find some angles of interest for players and/or teams to outproduce expectation tonight.
Tyrese Haliburton over 16.5 points (-115): Haliburton had a poor performance in Game 1, scoring only six points on 2-of-6 shooting from the field with three crucial turnovers in crunch time. Beyond the numbers, though, he visibly wasn’t aggressive, passing on several shot opportunities and looking indecisive. Health is the elephant in the room, with Haliburton dealing with lingering back spasms, but he reportedly stated several times on Tuesday his intent to play much better in Game 2. In the first round, Haliburton bounced back from a slow scoring start (10.5 PPG through Games 1 and 2) to average 18.8 PPG in Games 3 to 6. I look for that Haliburton to show up and put a nice number on the board tonight.
T.J. McConnell over 10.5 points (-115): While Haliburton needs to bounce back, McConnell just needs to keep doing what he’s been doing. In his last two games, he has come off the bench and played huge for the Pacers. He dropped 20 points and nine assists in 23 minutes in the closeout game against the Bucks, then followed that up with 18 points in 22 minutes in Game 1 against the Knicks. McConnell has brought energy in leading the second unit that changed the momentum of both of those games. And he has brought defensive intensity, generating seven steals over those two games and held Jalen Brunson to only 2-of-9 shooting when defending him 1-on-1. McConnell should have a big role again tonight and seems likely to outperform this line.
Josh Hart over 12.5 rebounds (-125): Hart had an excellent all-around effort in Game 1, scoring 24 points with 8 assists, 3 boards and a blocked shot. But that is icing on the cake of his most consistent contribution: crashing the glass. Hart grabbed 13 rebounds in Game 1, the fifth time he has notched at least 13 boards in seven playoff games. With the official news that center Mitchell Robinson is out for the foreseeable future, I expect Hart to continue his onslaught on the glass.
Knicks money line (-175): The Knicks won Game 1 by four points in a game they were losing until a furious late comeback. It was a high-scoring game, played at the Pacers’ rhythm. The Pacers’ second unit controlled the action, and against a Knicks team with only a seven-man rotation, it could happen again, which is why I’m not fully comfortable giving the 4.5 points in the spread. That said, I believe the Knicks are comfortably the better team and the Pacers don’t have an answer for Brunson. The Knicks are playing at home, and they’ve just shown a knack for winning close games down the stretch, with Brunson acting as the closer. According to the BPI, the Knicks have a 60.8% chance to win the game with a projected margin of 3.3 points.
Projections and Injury Reports
Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics. Injury aggregation by Rotowire.com. Odds by ESPN BET
Indiana Pacers at New York Knicks
East Semifinals – Game 2
8 p.m. Madison Square Garden, New York
Records (Against the Spread)
Pacers: 47-35 (44-36-2)
Knicks: 50-32 (44-37-1)
Line: Knicks (-4.5) Total: 218.5
Money Line: Pacers (+165), Knicks (-195)
BPI Projection: Knicks by 3.3, straight up 61%, 218.0 total points.
Injury Report:
Pacers: Tyrese Haliburton, (GTD – Back); Bennedict Mathurin, (OUT – Shoulder)
Knicks: Bojan Bogdanovic, (OUT – Foot); Duane Washington Jr., (OUT – Knee); Julius Randle, (OUT – Shoulder); Mitchell Robinson, (OUT – Ankle)