The penultimate weekend before the NCAA tournament is always one of the most fun on the college basketball calendar. There’s a mix of regular-season and conference tournament action, high-profile showdowns and automatic bids being handed out.
This particular Saturday featured rematches from the memorable Feb. 3 slate: Kansas at Houston, Kentucky at Tennessee, North Carolina at Duke. How would the Cougars enact revenge for their last loss, the 13-point drubbing at the hands of the Jayhawks? Was Kentucky’s February resurgence a harbinger of things to come or did Dalton Knecht have one more statement performance left in him before the postseason? And the best rivalry in the sport with regular-season championship stakes on the line for both Carolina and Duke? We’ll take it.
The schedule also had bubble dwellers fighting for their lives, tournament teams jockeying for seeding and the first NCAA tournament bid handed out in the Ohio Valley Conference. Who punched their ticket?
ESPN’s Myron Medcalf, Jeff Borzello and Joe Lunardi break down the big storylines from the final Saturday of the 2023-24 regular season.
0:43
Houston pads its lead on back-to-back buckets
Ja’Vier Francis slams it home over Hunter Dickinson, then seals the rock which the hands of Jamal Shead for a Cougars and-1.
Myron Medcalf: A few weeks ago, Bill Self was asked to compare his team’s challenges with injuries — Kevin McCullar Jr., had missed four of five games at that point with a bone bruise in his knee — to the situation he had when Joel Embiid suffered a back injury at the end of the 2013-14 season. Self said the two teams were in different situations. Not because of talent, but because of the depth — and the lack thereof with this year’s group. Sure, the Jayhawks continue to wrestle with offensive lapses in key games against top teams, but when healthy, they’ve been able to keep up with teams like UConn, Tennessee, Kentucky and, yes, Houston.
But Saturday’s group, which had to play without Hunter Dickinson (shoulder) and McCullar Jr., (knee) for much of the game, does not have a Plan B. Its rotation is limited. That seems to be the greatest threat to KU’s second-weekend aspirations in the NCAA tournament, especially if it has to move forward without two of its top players.
Jeff Borzello: For most of the past couple of months, the consensus across the sport has been that UConn is the most dominant team in the country, and enters the postseason as the favorite to cut down the nets. Not so fast. Houston’s performance on Saturday was as good a 40-minute showing as we’ve seen from anyone this season. The Cougars’ defense can simply overwhelm teams and run them off the floor. Kansas shot 33% from the field, while Houston had 30 points off turnovers and 17 second-chance points. That’s how Kelvin Sampson wants his teams to win, and when the Cougars can make shots on top of all that, they’re a force.
Joe Lunardi’s bracket impact: The big story here is Kansas. We have no choice but to drop the Jayhawks another seed line, this time as a No. 4. Pending player availability after the Big 12 tournament, Kansas could slide even further before the NCAA tournament begins. As for Houston, the Cougars stay in the running for the top overall seed with this big win. If Purdue loses at any point until Selection Sunday, and Houston backs up its regular season crown in the Big 12 tourney, it’s hard to imagine the Cougars being denied.
1:58
Dalton Knecht’s 40-point outburst not enough as Kentucky tops Tennessee
Dalton Knecht goes off for 40 points in No. 4 Tennessee’s loss to No. 15 Kentucky.
Medcalf: A loss to one of the hottest teams in America right now does not diminish Tennessee’s Final Four potential. The Vols won the conference championship in one of the toughest leagues in America. And their best player, Dalton Knecht, couldn’t do much more than he did on Saturday to help his team. It has become a common theme in Tennessee’s toughest moments this season. The Northern Colorado transfer has averaged 26.7 PPG in his team’s seven losses this season. Despite Knecht’s registering a career-high 40 points, Tennessee couldn’t match Kentucky’s offensive output. If the Vols end up in a back-and-forth game that demands the same kind of effort in the NCAA tournament, how much of the burden will Knecht have to carry? And, will it be enough?
Borzello: There’s no room left on the Kentucky-to-the-Final-Four bandwagon. The Wildcats have already proved themselves as one of the most explosive offensive teams in the country, and they’re only getting better as Reed Sheppard and Rob Dillingham get more time on the floor. But the defense continues to show flashes of being good enough to win games in the postseason. On the surface, allowing 81 points to Tennessee isn’t eye-opening, but the Vols’ 1.10 points per possession is one of their least efficient efforts in the last two months. If Ugonna Onyenso can stay on the floor and protect the rim, it adds a different dimension to Kentucky’s team.
Lunardi’s bracket impact: Tennessee is back in a virtual tie with Arizona and surging North Carolina for the fourth and final No. 1 seed. The Vols were in the driver’s seat before Saturday, but will now carry a little extra burden at the SEC tournament. Kentucky, meanwhile, continues to climb the seed list. The Wildcats are suddenly a 3-seed and no doubt a popular pick in both the SEC and NCAA tournaments.
0:40
Cormac Ryan’s 3rd three forces an early Duke timeout
Cormac Ryan splashes a 3-pointer to put North Carolina up 11 and force a Duke timeout.
Medcalf: Hubert Davis entered last February on a hot streak. He’d won four in a row as his team prepared to host Jeff Capel and Pitt. North Carolina lost that night, however, and started a 5-7 finish to conclude a disappointing season just a year after a run to the national title game. The Tar Heels faced a 2-3 stretch that bled into mid-February this year, prompting questions once again about this team’s ceiling. Instead of folding, however, UNC won six in a row — including beating its chief rival to outright win the ACC regular-season title. Hubert Davis’ team now enters the postseason as a legit national title contender.
Borzello: When Davis went out and signed Cormac Ryan from the portal last spring, the Tar Heels were hoping for two things from the Notre Dame transfer: Experience and 3-point shooting. Both came through loud and clear on Saturday. Ryan had 31 points, including six 3-pointers. He came up huge on the offensive end with RJ Davis struggling to make shots and Armando Bacot not finishing consistently on the interior. Ryan hit three early 3s to set the tone and give UNC an early lead, then hit back-to-back 3s and four free throws in the final minutes to ice the game. That’s a great sign for the Tar Heels entering the postseason.
Lunardi’s bracket impact: A Duke win would have given the ACC a pair of projected No. 2 seeds entering the ACC tournament. Instead, the Blue Devils fall back to a 3-seed while the Tar Heels creep back into the conversation for a 1-seed. UNC will need an ACC tourney title — and probably a little help — to land on the NCAA’s top line, but an effort like the one at Cameron Indoor makes all things possible.
Quick hits
Finally, some mid-major chalk
College basketball fans will get the Missouri Valley championship matchup they wanted, with Indiana State and Drake both winning their semifinal matchups. It’s now the must-watch game on Sunday’s slate, featuring the top two seeds in the conference tournament, the two best players in the league in Robbie Avila and Tucker DeVries and two coaches (Josh Schertz, Darian DeVries) who will be regulars on the coaching carousel until they take bigger jobs. Indiana State and Drake split their two regular-season meetings, and neither will be guaranteed an NCAA tournament bid if it loses in the championship game. –Borzello
Bluejays are getting hot
During its 7-1 run over the last eight games of the regular season, Creighton — which defeated Villanova, 69-67, in an early-Saturday afternoon thriller — registered 120 points per 100 possessions four times. Greg McDermott’s squad has momentum entering the postseason and Baylor Scheierman (21.3 PPG, 52% from beyond the arc over the last three games) has been a catalyst for that surge. –Medcalf
Nova’s bubble is bursting
What a brutal day for the Villanova Wildcats. In a near must-win situation, the Wildcats fell behind Creighton early, 27-5, and seemed dead in the water in Philadelphia. Instead, they climbed their way back into the game and finally tied it on three free throws from big man Eric Dixon inside 30 seconds to go in the second half. But Bluejays guard Trey Alexander had other ideas at the buzzer, and Villanova will enter the Big East tournament on the wrong side of the bubble for the second year in a row. — Lunardi
Why Champ Week matters
TCU and Mississippi State have been comfortably in the NCAA tournament field for weeks, quietly in the middle of the bracket. But after Saturday, both teams would be smart to avoid a loss in the first game of their respective conference tournaments. TCU had a surprising home loss to UCF, meaning the Horned Frogs have now lost three of their last four games and six of their last 10. MSU fell at home to South Carolina in overtime, to have lost four straight. One more win would be enough to secure a bid, but another loss? –Borzello