It has been a season of unexpected team performances.
Consider that the last time we checked in in this space, on the morning of May 4, it was the Pittsburgh Pirates, then 20-11, the fourth-best record in baseball and 1½ games better than any team in the National League Central, who had taken everyone by surprise.
Since then, said Pirates are 14-21, the fifth-worst record, their odds slipping backward from +10000 to +12500, with the minimal slippage perhaps primarily due to their remaining in first place in the division.
Today, five of the six division leaders entered 2023 with odds that placed outside the top 10 in the game: The NL East-leading Atlanta Braves were tied for the fourth-best odds (+850), but outside of them, the American League East-leading Tampa Bay Rays (+2500) were 11th, AL Central-leading Minnesota Twins (+4000) were tied for 13th, AL West-leading Texas Rangers (+5000) were 18th, NL West-leading Arizona Diamondbacks (+12500) were 24th and Pirates (+20000) were tied for 25th.
The Rays and Rangers have made the most significant surges, both since the preseason and since May 4, in large part because of how consistently well they have played over the 11 weeks of baseball that are already in the books.
The Rays are now the fourth-biggest favorite to capture their first championship (+650), while the Rangers are sixth (+1600), with both teams notably leapfrogging the New York Mets, Toronto Blue Jays, San Diego Padres and Philadelphia Phillies. One can only wonder, too, how much better the Rangers’ odds might be had Jacob deGrom not succumbed to Tommy John surgery within the past week.
This month’s hottest team has been the Diamondbacks, a major league-best 25-12 since that May 4 morning to expand their divisional lead over the Los Angeles Dodgers to three games, the team led by a budding superstar in Corbin Carroll on offense and a pair of mound aces in Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly.
The Diamondbacks have narrowed their championship odds to +3000, 11th best in the game, though it’s notable that the rival Dodgers are still considered substantially better bets to win the World Series (+550, tied for second-best).
In large part because Aaron Judge has had a tougher time staying off the injured list this year than last, Shohei Ohtani (-300) is now running away with the AL MVP odds, with Judge at +1200 and no other player sporting better than +2500. Ohtani finds himself on pace for career bests in batting average (.296) and home runs (47) as a hitter and strikeouts (239) as a pitcher.
Ronald Acuna Jr., on pace to join Barry Bonds (1990) as the only players in history to bat .300-plus with at least 30 home runs and 50 stolen bases in a season, hasn’t quite been able to run away with the NL MVP odds to the degree that Ohtani has. Dodgers teammates Freddie Freeman (+500) and Mookie Betts (+1000) remain in striking distance, and Carroll (+1600) has put himself into position as well.
Carroll (-300) and Gallen (+210) have also moved themselves into “favorites” position in both the NL Rookie of the Year and Cy Young races, respectively, but it’s the former competition that has brought in an intriguing new candidate: Cincinnati Reds rookie Elly De La Cruz, just eight games into his big-league career, already has +700 odds!
Where do our analysts now see the betting values for the season’s remaining 3.5 months? Derek Carty, Tristan H. Cockcroft, Eric Karabell and David Schoenfield chime in with their updated picks.
By Tristan H. Cockcroft
To win the World Series odds
Note: All odds are from Caesars Sportsbook as of June 15.
Expert picks
Baltimore Orioles (+3500): It sure seems as if the experts don’t believe in the Orioles this season, despite their terrific start. I’m not so sure I believe, but the Orioles do seem playoff-bound, at the least, and with a young, exciting offense and excellent bullpen, anything can happen in October. At these odds, it’s an opportunity. — Karabell
Houston Astros (+550): The lineup, especially with Yordan Alvarez on the IL at the moment, doesn’t look like championship quality with Jose Abreu a nonfactor and Alex Bregman below his best numbers, but they’ve proved they know how to step up when it matters. More importantly, the rotation is still solid and the bullpen has the firepower and depth to dominate like it did last October. — Schoenfield
Texas Rangers to not make the Playoffs (+200): I’m going a little off-menu here, but it’s warranted given this value. The Rangers currently have the sixth-best odds to win the World Series, but THE BAT X says they’re an underdog to even make the playoffs. No team in baseball is overperforming more than the Rangers in pretty much any capacity you can measure. They lead the league in BABIP despite being middle of the pack in sprint speed. They’ve been absurdly good with men on base and only average with bases empty, essentially leading the league in runs solely because they’ve lucked into well-timed hits. Almost every hitter on the team is overperforming their projected talent level. And they’ve had the fewest starting pitcher injuries of any team in baseball, getting by with just six starters up until a couple days ago. Oh, and their best pitcher, Jacob deGrom, is officially out for the year. THE BAT X projects them as a .475 win percentage team over the rest of the season. With Houston and the Angels only three wins behind them and both projecting much better ROS, give me Texas to not make the playoffs at +200. — Carty
Cincinnati Reds to win the NL Central outright (+850): I’m with Derek that I don’t think the play — at least right now — is to take the title odds, but rather some of the other team-odds picks. The Reds are, granted, very buzzworthy right now, with the recent arrival of De La Cruz highlighting what has been a youth movement more than a year in the making. But the harsh reality of the NL Central is that it’s really a coin-flip division in my estimation — the Cardinals have probably tallied too many losses already to mount a 2021-esque comeback — and I think it might take 85 wins to take the title. They’ll need to make a deadline move to get some pitching, but for a division that might have first and last ultimately separated by 8-10 games in the end, I like these Reds odds. — Cockcroft
Longshots to watch
Seattle Mariners (+5000): Are the Mariners a good bet to even make the playoffs? Not really, as FanGraphs puts their playoff odds at 21%. But remember, they were in a similar situation last year when they ran off a 14-game winning streak in July. If they do find a way to get in, the rotation with Luis Castillo, George Kirby, Logan Gilbert and Bryce Miller is good enough to get on an October hot streak. — Schoenfield
Philadelphia Phillies (+3000): Over the final four months of last season, the Phillies played .589 baseball, and is their roster really any worse off than it was last year? Trea Turner and Bryce Harper are bound to improve and this staff still has its one-two punch of aces to create matchups headaches in any playoff series. — Cockcroft
National League Most Valuable Player
Expert picks
Luis Arraez, 2B, Miami Marlins (+3000): Miami’s second baseman might not make it to even five home runs this season and he might not get to play in the postseason, but if he becomes the first player to bat .400 since Ted Williams in 1941, none of that may matter to voters. Arraez is a gifted contact hitter having an incredible season. — Karabell
Corbin Carroll, CF, Arizona Diamondbacks (+1600): Don’t look now, but he has been on a bender the past week and now leads the NL in fWAR and OPS and is second to J.D. Martinez in slugging. Oh, he’s making diving catches in the outfield is 19-for-21 stealing bases. He might be the best player in the league as a rookie. — Schoenfield
American League Most Valuable Player
Expert picks
Marcus Semien, 2B, Texas Rangers (+2500): Perhaps it is folly to bet against Angels star Shohei Ohtani, but the Rangers’ second baseman is delivering his own fantastic season, with huge totals in runs and RBI, and his team sure appears better positioned for many more regular-season wins and a better shot at postseason success. — Karabell
Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays (+3000): Yes, consider this the non-Ohtani bet as he’s the overwhelming favorite. Wander Franco has the higher WAR than Bichette, but Bichette has the superior offensive numbers and those will help him in the MVP vote. Of course, the Blue Jays will likely need to make the playoffs, but Bichette has a chance to win a batting title and lead the league in hits for the third year in a row, plus his defense has been better. — Schoenfield
Longshots to watch
Corey Seager, SS, Texas Rangers (+7500): His counting stats are low because he missed 31 games, but his triple-slash line is an awesome .357/.415/.629 with 35 RBIs in 35 games. Given that Aaron Judge and Alvarez are both injured now and no other position player has stepped up, maybe Seager can win if he gets into 125 games and still drives in 100 runs. — Schoenfield
Seager: Seconded, as Seager is the Rangers’ best offensive player and, frankly, one of the most underrated players in the game, though that’s understandable simply because of his injury history. If this team is going to stick in the AL West lead, it’ll need to be because of his efforts. — Cockcroft
National League Cy Young
Expert picks
Zack Wheeler, Philadelphia Phillies (+1600): I would compare Wheeler to Spencer Strider. Both have ERAs around 3.70, but great peripheral numbers that suggest that ERA will regress in a positive. Yet Strider’s odds are at +250. Both will need a string of low-run outings to lower that ERA, but unlike Strider, we know Wheeler has done it over an entire season where he can get to 200 innings. — Schoenfield
American League Cy Young
Expert picks
Nathan Eovaldi, SP, Texas Rangers (+900): The Rangers needed an ace, a healthy one, and Eovaldi has proved to be one of the best free agent signings of the offseason, as he leads the Texas rotation. This is by far the best start of Eovaldi’s career and durability has been a problem here, too, but he has been outstanding, and his odds are still a bargain. — Karabell
Eovaldi: I’m going to agree with Eric. Shane McClanahan is the frontrunner, but remember that he faded in the second half last year. Eovaldi hasn’t always been able to string together 32 starts either, but he has been a model of consistency this season, has a good defense behind him and the offense to help him get close to 20 wins (and wins can be the deciding factor in what otherwise looks like will be a crowded field). — Schoenfield
Luis Castillo, SP, Seattle Mariners (+1000): Dave is probably right in that wins might ultimately decide this, but if we’re talking consistency and reliability, I’m going with Castillo (if not Framber Valdez +600). Castillo is every bit as talented as any of the other top contenders, he has been generally more durable and he calls a pitching-friendly environment his home. — Cockcroft
Longshots to watch
Cristian Javier, Houston Astros (+8000): I love this bet at those odds. He’s 7-1 with a 3.13 ERA, so it’s not like he has been pitching poorly. But Javier has the stuff to get on a roll. Over his final 11 outings last season, he had a 1.49 ERA and held batters to a .145 average. I have a feeling we haven’t seen his best yet in 2023. — Schoenfield
Javier: He was my sleeper Cy Young during the preseason, and just to illustrate how tasty these odds, Javier was a +1200 entering the year and is an astonishing +8000 today, despite his having a top-20-in-baseball ERA+, WHIP and batting average allowed. — Cockcroft
National League Rookie of the Year
Expert picks
Bobby Miller, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (+2500): All due respect to the young, exciting hitters in the Reds lineup, but Miller permitted only two runs over his first three big-league outings, and he looks like an immediate ace, the latest in a string of them for the Dodgers. If he keeps pitching like this, he can steal this award. — Karabell
Corbin Carroll, OF, Arizona Diamondbacks (-300): Nice try, Eric, but Carroll is having one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time. Of course, if Miller finishes 16-0 or something with a 0.78 ERA, then it will be a great debate! — Schoenfield
Elly De La Cruz, 3B/SS, Cincinnati Reds (+700): I’m going to throw this out there, not as a big-ol’ meanie, but just as a reminder that weird, wacky and sometimes unfortunate, things do happen in baseball. Carroll looks like he has this trophy wrapped up, sure, but what if there’s an injury? I hate to raise that question, but De La Cruz isn’t really any less the raw talent Carroll, and +425 odds to -300 looks pretty tantalizing. – Cockcroft
American League Rookie of the Year
Expert picks
Gunnar Henderson, 3B, Baltimore Orioles (+425): He’s been scorching hot over the past week, so those odds are rapidly dropping. One advantage is that if it turns into a close race between him and Masataka Yoshida, I think voters will default to Henderson since Yoshida isn’t really a rookie in the traditional sense. — Schoenfield
Henderson: Something has definitely changed with his stance — he’s much more balanced, and much better at connecting on both breaking pitches as well as those on the inner third of the plate — and I’m in agreement that the Henderson we’ve seen over the past week (and arguably the past month) is the true model. I actually like his odds more than anyone else’s on the Rookie slate in either league right now. — Cockcroft