McShay’s early 2024 NFL mock draft: Where could top prospects, three QBs land in Round 1?

Yes, we’re already looking at the 2024 NFL draft class. The top prospects of the 2023 class haven’t even stepped on an NFL field yet, but let’s go ahead and do a way, way-too-early projection of every first-round pick for next year.

We watched three quarterbacks get picked in the top four spots in Kansas City, Missouri, last week, and we could see QBs high on the board again next April in Detroit. The class is currently headlined by Caleb Williams, the Heisman Trophy winner out of USC, and a handful of other signal-callers have a chance to be Day 1 selections. I also see some really good pass-catcher, edge rusher, cornerback and offensive tackle prospects.

Now, this is an extremely early prediction. I’ve only watched limited tape on next year’s prospects, and most of this is based on early talk around the league and what I’ve seen from the 2024-eligble players while digging in on 2023 tape. There’s a reason I call it the “way-too-early” mock. My 2023 edition had 14 players in it who ended up being first-rounders, including three correctly pegged to the top five — but I also had Eli Ricks and Emil Ekiyor Jr., who went undrafted, and three guys who returned to school in there. Take it for what it is; we still have an entire college season and a long pre-draft process ahead. A lot will change.

There is also the matter of the draft order. Let’s get this out of the way: I didn’t make it. We opted to project the order using the inverse of Super Bowl odds from Caesars Sportsbook, though we broke some ties and tweaked the end of it to ensure seven teams from each conference make the playoffs. It ultimately put Arizona at the top of the board with pick Nos. 1 and 2. But would the Cardinals hang onto both selections?

Note: Underclassmen are noted with an asterisk. Traded picks (Houston, Carolina, Cleveland and conditionally the N.Y. Jets) are shown below as well.

Projected trade: Cardinals trade down

If things play out like this, Arizona could control the draft with the top two selections, including the first one via the trade for the Will Anderson Jr. pick last Thursday. If the Cardinals are picking this high, a lot of things didn’t go right in 2023, and it’s not out of the question that the new regime would consider a change at quarterback. I considered going that route, but Kyler Murray‘s contract makes him extremely difficult to move on from after this coming season. His cap hits for 2024-26 are all north of $50 million, with at least $20 million in dead cap each year, and he’s coming off a torn ACL. So I’m instead proposing that another QB-needy team comes up the board, allowing the Cards to pick up more draft capital and continue the rebuild.

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Caleb Williams, QB, USC*

The Bucs are going into the 2023 season with Baker Mayfield and Kyle Trask under center, but I don’t think either is the long-term plan — especially since Mayfield is on a cheap, one-year deal. Mayfield was last in Total QBR in 2022 (24.6), and Trask, a second-rounder in 2021, has thrown nine passes in the NFL. Williams is coming off a Heisman season, throwing for 4,537 yards last season. He has a good arm and excels at creating when things break down. He’s an exceptional QB prospect and would be worth the move up from No. 5 to get him.

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Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State*

If Arizona is sticking with Murray, then the next step is to get him a talented receiver, whether or not DeAndre Hopkins sticks with the team. Harrison is going to be among the elite grades at the position, perhaps even the highest since A.J. Green (97) in 2011. He has great size at 6-foot-4, 205-pounds and fantastic hands, catching 77 passes for 1,263 yards and 14 touchdowns last season. With Hopkins only under contract through 2024 and Marquise Brown coming off the books after this coming season, the receiver room could use a difference-maker.

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Projected trade: Washington goes in on a QB?

Maybe Indy stays put if Harrison — the son of a Colts legend — is still on the board at No. 3. But there’s still a high-end quarterback out there, and that’s not a need for Indianapolis after it took Anthony Richardson at No. 4 in April. I don’t see many teams that definitely need a signal-caller right now, but Washington does jump out a little bit. I could see a slight move up for the Commanders, who sit at No. 6 in this mock order.

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Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina*

Maye is 6-foot-4, 220 pounds and has a massive arm. Not only did he throw 38 touchdown passes last season, but he also ran for seven scores and almost 700 yards. Washington might be comfortable with Sam Howell and Jacoby Brissett at the moment, but the former is a fifth-round pick with one career start, and the latter is a 30-year-old veteran backup on a one-year deal. I understand the Commanders passing on quarterback down the board at No. 16 in 2023, but if they have a chance to get someone like Maye next April, it could change things for the franchise. Washington was outside the top 20 in nearly every passing metric last season.

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Dallas Turner, OLB, Alabama*

Turner is going to take over this Crimson Tide defense next season after Anderson graduated to the NFL. He’s undersized at 240 pounds, but he’s quick and bendy off the edge. Turner has 12.5 sacks and 17 tackles for loss over two seasons despite only starting 12 of the 28 games he appeared in. And he has at least 25 pressures in each of those years. Tennessee brought in Arden Key, but Harold Landry III is coming off an ACL tear and Denico Autry is playing on the final year of his contract.

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Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB, Alabama*

After the trade back, the Cardinals can add a really fluid cover corner at No. 5. That’d be big since a good portion of the defensive back room could be out the door in the next two seasons. And it’s a weakness — the Cards only had 11 picks (tied for 21st) and allowed a league-high 69.8% completion percentage in 2022. Opponents pass at will against Arizona. McKinstry is 6-foot-1 and quick, and while he only intercepted two passes over two seasons, he broke up 14 throws last year.

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Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia*

The Colts have used picks on the tight end position in three straight drafts, but Kylen Granson, Jelani Woods and Will Mallory don’t match Bowers’ talent. The only knock on him is his 6-foot-4, 230-pound frame is a little undersized for the position. But he’s a reliable pass-catcher who has 119 catches, 1,824 yards and 20 touchdowns over the past two years. Bowers is tough to stop after the catch, too. He averaged more than eight yards after the catch per reception last season. Indy can plug him right in and let him produce with Richardson throwing him the ball.

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Jared Verse, DE, Florida State*

I had Verse in my midseason top 32 rankings for the 2023 class before he decided to go back to school. And he’ll be high on the board again for 2024 after compiling nine sacks and 16.5 tackles for loss last season. The snap in his hips and hands jumps out on tape, and he’s at his best overwhelming offensive tackles with speed-to-power. Verse also mixes in an effective inside move and can beat interior linemen clean when he kicks inside. The Falcons were 31st in sacks last year (21) and might be replacing Calais Campbell and Bud Dupree next offseason. (As an aside, Atlanta could be in the quarterback market, too. Desmond Ridder hasn’t secured the long-term gig just yet.)

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J.T. Tuimoloau, DE, Ohio State*

The Bears have two picks in the top 11 here, and after essentially ignoring the edge rush in the 2023 draft, they will likely be going that direction early in ’24. The Bears’ 20 sacks ranked at the bottom of the league last year, and they traded Robert Quinn at midseason. Tuimoloau is coming off a breakout year with the Buckeyes (only 3.5 sacks but 27 pressures and 12 tackles for loss) and will only keep getting better. He looks the part, too, at 6-foot-4 and 270 pounds.

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Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State*

I actually think Fashanu could go even higher, and he only fell to No. 9 here because teams with earlier picks have different projected needs. That isn’t the case with the Patriots, who are relying on Trent Brown and Riley Reiff — both are 30 or older — to keep Mac Jones clean in the pocket. Fashanu has the length and quickness to develop into an elite pass blocker, with the ability to erase speed rushers, take away inside moves and anchor at the top of his set. At 6-foot-6 and 321 pounds, he’s also strong enough to move defenders off the ball in the run game. Fashanu played 520 snaps at left tackle last season and didn’t allow a single sack.

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Bralen Trice, DE, Washington*

Trice has an NFL frame at 6-foot-4 and 256 pounds, and he can get to the QB. Trice piled up 48 pressures (sixth in the nation) and nine sacks last season, plus 13 tackles for loss. Alex Highsmith is a free agent after 2023, and Trice could slot in as a potential replacement opposite T.J. Watt.

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Rome Odunze, WR, Washington*

The Bears are back on the clock, and I think they could look closely at this receiver class. The only pass-catchers under contract beyond 2023 are DJ Moore and Velus Jones Jr. Odunze needs to keep developing, but with Michael Penix Jr. back under center next season in Washington, the wideout has a good chance to take the next step. Odunze is a big receiver at 6-foot-3 and finished 10th in receiving last season with 1,145 yards. Chicago must continue to build the supporting cast around Justin Fields.

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Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame*

The Rams? In Round 1? They haven’t been here since they took Jared Goff in 2016! It’s a team with a lot of needs, and I’m sure we will be talking about the quarterbacks in the class for Los Angeles over the next 12 months, too. Matthew Stafford has a big contract, but he’s 35 years old and only played nine games last season. What about his protection, though? Only two teams allowed more sacks than the Rams’ 59 last season, and while Steve Avila (a 2022 second-round guard/center) will help, bringing in someone like Alt to team up with Joe Noteboom and Rob Havenstein would be smart. Alt is massive at 6-foot-7 and 317 pounds, and he “blew” just six total blocks (pass protecting and run blocking combined) across 866 snaps last season.

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Jer’Zhan Newton, DT, Illinois*

Newton has great tape. He’s a very powerful and active 3-technique with upper-body snap, and he would immediately plug into the middle of the Packers’ defense. Green Bay lost Jarran Reed and Dean Lowry off the defensive line, but I could see Newton working well alongside Kenny Clark to fill against the run and penetrate the backfield. He had 18 run stops last season while adding 13.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks.

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Leonard Taylor, DT, Miami-FL*

A former five-star recruit, Taylor flashed during the 2022 season at Miami. Go watch his tape against Virginia to see what he can do — Taylor had 1.5 sacks and 2.5 tackles for loss in that one. Seattle brought in Derick Hall on Day 2 this year, but it didn’t fix the interior, and GM John Schneider will likely keep building up that defensive line. At 6-foot-3 and 305 pounds, Taylor can help. He has 10 or more tackles for loss in each of his two seasons with the Hurricanes.

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Jack Sawyer, OLB, Ohio State*

Sawyer joins Tuimoloau to form arguably the top edge rush tandem in the nation entering the 2023 season, and he’s a bit of a hybrid, showing the ability to rush off the edge standing up or with his hand in the dirt. He only started three games over the past two years, and the production is still coming (7.5 total sacks), but Sawyer has a lot of upside. The Broncos could use an influx of edge rush help; Baron Browning and Zach Allen are the top pass-rushers on this team right now by sack count, and both had fewer than six in 2022.

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Kalen King, CB, Penn State*

One Penn State cornerback was just drafted early (No. 32) last week, and the other could be a top pick in 2023. But whereas Joey Porter Jr. is long and physical, King is more fluid and an easy mover. His movements appear effortless. And King is a pure cover man, breaking up 15 passes (tied for fifth in the FBS) and picking off three more last season. At 5-foot-11 and 188 pounds, he isn’t the biggest corner in the class, but he has the quickness, instincts and smoothness to make plays. I could see him bumping inside, too, if needed. I was surprised Las Vegas didn’t draft a cornerback early this year, so I’d expect it to look closely at the position next time around.

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Maason Smith, DT, LSU*

The Texans traded their own first-rounder, but they still have the Browns’ pick. Receiver could be in play, but I like the fit for Smith here. He looked great as a freshman in 2021 but tore his left ACL in the 2022 opener. If he returns to form next season, he could be a Day 1 pick. At 6-foot-5 and 300 pounds, he has good size and quickness, and he managed four sacks from the interior during that ’21 season. Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins could both be headed to free agency, which would open up a spot inside. Few teams were worse against the run last season than Houston, which gave up 5.1 yards per carry.

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Ja’Tavion Sanders, TE, Texas*

Sanders is a rising star. Miami moved on from Mike Gesicki and could use a difference-maker at tight end — someone who could provide Tua Tagovailoa with a security blanket in the middle of the field and give the Dolphins some size in the red zone. A reliable pass-catcher, Sanders is 6-foot-4 and hauled in 54 passes for 613 yards last season.

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Michael Hall Jr., DT, Ohio State*

The Giants will have some decisions to make along the defensive line, with Dexter Williams, Leonard Williams, Jihad Ward and A’Shawn Robinson all set to play on expiring deals this season. Hall is explosive on the interior, picking up 4.5 sacks last season. I could see him fitting in with New York nicely.

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J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan*

I thought about Washington’s Michael Penix Jr. here, too, but I ultimately went with McCarthy, who threw for 22 TDs and five interceptions last season in Michigan. There are a handful of passers who could rise into Round 1 — Penix, Oregon’s Bo Nix and Texas’ Quinn Ewers, to name a few — but McCarthy is intriguing because of his 6-foot-3 frame, running ability, accuracy and arm talent. In Minnesota, Kirk Cousins is entering the final year of his deal, and the team could move on. Despite winning 13 games last season, the Vikings were outside the top 20 in Total QBR (49.9). McCarthy could be the future for a team like Minnesota if he takes the next step in 2023.

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Emeka Egbuka, WR, Ohio State*

If Harrison and Egbuka both go in Round 1 next year, that makes five Ohio State receivers on Day 1 over the course of three years. That’s wild. I’m curious to see what Egbuka does this season without C.J. Stroud under center. He plays with speed and burst, and he averaged 15.6 yards per catch last season en route to 1,151 yards and 10 TD catches. In New Orleans, he could team up with Chris Olave — one of those aforementioned other Buckeye first-rounders — and Michael Thomas to give Derek Carr a solid pass-catching trio.

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Xavier Worthy, WR, Texas*

Worthy has some wheels, but his lean frame might concern some scouts. At 6-foot-1 and 163 pounds, he’s the receiver version of cornerback Emmanuel Forbes, who was just drafted at No. 16 last Thursday night. Even so, Worthy went for 760 yards and nine TDs last season, and he could fit nicely alongside Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams to give Jared Goff and/or Hendon Hooker a solid trio of wideouts. With Jahmyr Gibbs also there, that offense has a chance to be a lot of fun. Alternatively, Detroit could go defense and continue adding to the defensive line.

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Cooper DeJean, CB, Iowa*

Jacksonville has Tyson Campbell and Darious Williams on the outside, but both are free agents after the 2024 season. And it could use someone in the slot, too. DeJean has the versatility to play there before moving outside. He’s an instinctive playmaker with speed, and he’s built like a safety at 6-foot-1, 209 pounds. DeJean had five interceptions last season, and three were TD returns. And after the Jags struggled on punt returns (7.9 yards per run back) last year, he could bring a boost there. He averaged 16.5 yards per return in 2022.

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Chop Robinson, DE, Penn State*

A transfer from Maryland, Robinson had a good 2022 season despite no sack production. He didn’t start a game for the Nittany Lions but still accumulated 13.5 tackles for loss and 26 pressures. Baltimore needs more playmaking pass-rushers, and Robinson could be a good fit. But I also think the Ravens could consider cornerbacks or defensive tackles if those holes go unfixed by next April.

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Denzel Burke, CB, Ohio State*

Six Ohio State players make the list here, though Burke needs to take the next step and play his way into Round 1. He has the talent to do it. Burke only has one interception through two years, but it was a pick-six. Michael Davis is a free agent after this season, and J.C. Jackson is returning off a right knee injury, so the cornerback room is an area that needs a boost. But the Chargers could also get a defensive tackle to shore up the run defense if there’s one on the board.

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JC Latham, OT, Alabama*

Tyron Smith and Terence Steele are both set to be free agents after the upcoming season, and Dallas was 27th in pass block win rate last year (52.9%). Latham has a 6-foot-6, 326-pound frame, plays with power and has versatility. He allowed just one sack over 13 starts last season. Latham is also a real asset in the run game at right tackle, where he could help spring Tony Pollard.

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Calen Bullock, S, USC*

No, this pick isn’t quite under the Packers control just yet. But if the Jets are picking at No. 27 and making the playoffs, I think it’s a safe bet that Aaron Rodgers played 65% of the snaps in the 2023 season, the qualifier for the second-round conditional pick to become a Day 1 selection. So we’re giving this one to Green Bay, who lands a 6-foot-3 playmaker in the secondary here. Bullock has seven interceptions over two years, including five in 2022. Darnell Savage, Tarvarius Moore and Rudy Ford are all playing out the final years of their current deals, so there’s a hole at safety.

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Kingsley Suamataia, OT, BYU*

Suamataia is a huge 6-foot-6, 325-pound transfer from Oregon who started 12 games at right tackle last year and allowed just five pressures. Cincinnati cut down on sacks allowed last season (44 against, tied for 20th), but it was 30th in pass block win rate at 50.1%. Signing Orlando Brown Jr. is a big move in the right direction, but will Jonah Williams stick with the team after requesting a trade? Suamataia could slide right in and give the Bengals massive bookends to keep their franchise QB upright.

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Javon Bullard, CB, Georgia*

Bullard reminds me of Dax Hill, the Michigan defensive back who landed with Cincinnati at the end of Round 1 in 2022. He’s undersized at 5-foot-11 and 180 pounds, but he is super quick and versatile. Bullard — who had two interceptions and 50 tackles for the national champs last season — has experience at both corner and safety, though I could see him settling into a nickel role in the pros. If the Bills instead want a true safety, considering Micah Hyde is off the books after the 2023 season, I think they could consider Miami’s Kamren Kinchens or Clemson’s Andrew Mukuba here.

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Jeremiah Trotter Jr., ILB, Clemson*

Porter went to the team that drafted his dad back in 1999 (Pittsburgh) this year, so why not project Trotter to go to the team that selected his dad in 1998 next year? The younger Trotter is coming off a great season and could join Nakobe Dean to fill the hole left up the middle after the departures of T.J. Edwards and Kyzir White. He has great instincts and 6-foot, 230-pound size. Trotter had 91 tackles, 6.5 sacks, 8.5 tackles for loss, seven pass breakups, two interceptions and a forced fumble last year. He does it all.

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Cooper Beebe, G, Kansas State

The Niners don’t have many holes but could probably use a refresh on the interior offensive line. And I think Beebe is clearly the best interior lineman in the country, though Ohio State’s Donovan Jackson might also end up in the first-round mix. Beebe is a grinder with good mobility and a big 6-foot-4, 322-pound frame. He has only allowed two sacks over 35 career starts, none of which have come in the past two seasons. In fact, he only allowed one pressure across 418 pass-block snaps last year.

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Graham Barton, OT, Duke

I don’t know who will end up winning the Super Bowl and picking at the end of the first round, but since we went off championship odds for this exercise, Kansas City has the honor here … again. The Chiefs signed Jawaan Taylor, but Lucas Niang has only started nine games in his career and missed nearly all of the 2022 season with a torn patellar tendon, and Donovan Smith is turning 30. Barton is 6-foot-5 and 311 pounds, and he has 30 starts under his belt. If the Chiefs are happy with their offensive line or opt to reload that group in free agency, maybe they bring in a receiver for Patrick Mahomes like LSU’s Malik Nabers or boost the run game with a running back like Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson.