Eleven of the MAC’s 12 current teams have reached the conference championship game at some point. Nine have won it. If you are a fan of raw and ridiculous parity, the Mid-American Conference is the league for you. While FBS non-independents played an average of 3.6 conference games that were decided by one score last season, MAC teams averaged 4.8. Those midweek MACtion games we all love in November? Eleven of 17 finished within a touchdown. This is a conference based on drama and evenness, and that might have never been more true than in 2022.
Mind you, the MAC could stand to be a little better. It has had the worst average SP+ rating for five straight years, and MAC teams went just 2-19 against power-conference opponents last season. (Their victims were Arizona State and Northwestern, which combined to go 4-20.) Smallish budgets and a packed-in recruiting area force teams to make great hires to stand out, but those great hires leave, and when their replacements are merely decent, the product suffers.
Mediocre or no, the product could be pretty even again in the East in 2023. But if there’s a standout, the best odds are on either Miami, Buffalo or defending champ Ohio. Let’s preview the MAC East!
Every week through the offseason, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 133 FBS teams. The previews will include 2022 breakdowns, 2023 previews and burning questions for each team.
Earlier previews: Conference USA, part 1, Conference USA, part 2
2022 recap
Last year’s standings:
Ohio 7-1 (10-4 overall)
Buffalo 5-3 (7-6)
Bowling Green 5-3 (6-7)
Miami (Ohio) 4-4 (6-7)
Kent State 4-4 (5-7)
Akron 1-7 (2-10)
Ohio picked up on what Tim Albin was laying down just in time. After Frank Solich’s summer 2021 retirement, Albin, his obvious successor after two decades as a Solich assistant, began his tenure by losing 12 of his first 17 games, including a 2-3 start to 2022. But beginning with a blowout of Akron, the Bobcats won seven games in a row and clinched the East title even while losing star quarterback Kurtis Rourke late in the season. They missed Rourke in a 17-7 title game loss to Toledo but rebounded to beat Wyoming in the Arizona Bowl.
Most of the rest of the division enjoyed a surge at some point as well. Bowling Green upset Marshall in September and won six of nine at one point to bowl for the first time in seven years; Buffalo won five in a row in the middle of Maurice Linguist’s second season; Miami won three of four late to assure bowl eligibility; Kent State rebounded after yet another brutal nonconference slate but suffered one too many close losses; even Akron showed signs of clear improvement late in Joe Moorhead’s first season. But Ohio’s surge was the longest, and the Bobcats won the division because of it.
2023 projections
In a division with similar talent levels and few instant-impact star recruits, experience tends to matter significantly. Miami was the only East team to rank higher than 70th in February’s returning production rankings (the Redhawks were 40th) and therefore moved to the top of the group. Ohio (114th) falls a bit, and while Buffalo has suffered plenty of its own turnover (110th), Linguist has done more successful work in the transfer portal than his East peers, so his Bulls get some benefit of the doubt.
With the top three teams projected within 0.4 average conference wins of each other, we should have a lovely race on our hands.
Burning questions
Is Miami going to waste another good defense? In this parity-friendly conference, it’s a sign of accomplishment that Chuck Martin has gone 33-18 in MAC play with a pair of division titles (and a conference title) over his last seven seasons in charge at Miami (Ohio). The Brian Kelly protege and two-time Division II national champion is clearly well organized and solid.
It’s difficult not to feel a little let down, though, as if Martin has left some wins on the table. Part of it is his extreme risk aversion and the fact that playing it safe has not worked out for him; his Redhawks have attempted only 124 fourth-down conversions during this seven-year run of success, 101st in FBS, and have gone just 15-20 in one-score finishes in that span. During December’s Bahamas Bowl broadcast, color commentator Joey Galloway quoted Martin as saying he “hates analytics.” His loss, I guess.
The other thing holding Martin back is a somewhat retrograde offense that has never come around. Miami has finished in the top 50 in defensive SP+ four times in the last seven seasons and has ranked 37th in each of the last two. But it has averaged a No. 104 offensive SP+ ranking in that span, only once topping 83rd.
The 2022 season was a nadir of sorts: Despite a physically impressive offensive line, the Redhawks ranked 117th in offensive success rate and 128th in offensive SP+. They threw more often than usual on standard downs, likely in an attempt to keep freshman quarterback Aveon Smith (who was in for injured incumbent Brett Gabbert) out of awkward downs and distances, but they were as bad on standard downs (116th in success rate) as passing downs (115th), and they were among the worst in the country in passing against defenses loading up the box to stop the run. They could neither avoid nor convert third downs, and whether with Gabbert or Smith, they averaged just 16 points per game in their seven losses.
The 2023 defense might be Martin’s best yet. Fourteen defenders saw at least 300 snaps last season, and 11 return, including do-everything linebacker Matthew Salopek and end Brian Ugwu, who plays bigger than his size (6-foot-3, 246 pounds, 12 run stops). They lost two of their top three cornerbacks, but veteran safeties Jacquez Warren and Ambe’ Caldwell should prevent too many disasters.
Miami might be the East favorite then, even if the offense doesn’t come around. And Martin certainly didn’t seem to think there was anything in need of a serious overhaul: When coordinator Eric Koehler left to become an analyst at Minnesota, Martin promoted tight ends coach Patrick Welsh. History suggests the ceiling won’t be high, but between Gabbert (2,648 passing yards in 2021), Smith and Colorado transfer Maddox Kopp, there should be solid competition for the starting quarterback job. Most of a mediocre skill corps returns, though three members of the solid line do not. Either way, it won’t take huge output for Miami to win some games, even if there are a couple more wins lying on the cutting room floor at the end.
Was October Buffalo or November Buffalo the real Buffalo? Buffalo left a lot of impressions in Linguist’s second season. The Bulls began 0-3, losing on the road to Maryland and Coastal Carolina (forgivable) and via Hail Mary to Holy Cross (less so, though Holy Cross attempting a Hail Mary seems unfair). But starting with their Week 4 trouncing of Eastern Michigan, they won five straight, beating Miami (Ohio) and Toledo in the process.
Just as they were emerging as a clear East favorite, however, they collapsed, losing three straight and barely beating Akron in their regular-season finale. After overachieving SP+ projections by 18.5 points per game during their winning streak, they underachieved by 18.6 per game during the skid. And then they overachieved in a 23-21 Camellia Bowl win over Georgia Southern.
For the season, Buffalo’s averages were decent: 34th in defensive success rate allowed, 57th in passing success rate on offense, good on third downs, good in the turnovers department. But full-season stats are only so helpful when your season takes as many swings as Buffalo.
An aggressive and disruptive defense must replace star linebacker James Patterson, but another linebacker, Shaun Dolac, topped Patterson’s production, and the return of safety Marcus Fuqua and tackles Daymond Williams and Jaylon Bass should assure a certain level of disruption. The offense could use some work, though. Quarterback Cole Snyder (3,030 yards, 18 touchdowns) returns, but his top three receivers do not. Linguist signed three transfers, plus four JUCO pass-catchers. The main components of the run game, including leading rusher Mike Washington, return, but the run game was only sporadically effective. Regression in the passing game could be costly.
The 38-year-old Linguist has seen his career move slowly, then quickly. After a decade as a defensive backs coach in various locations, he spent two years with Jimbo Fisher at Texas A&M (2018-19), then landed with the Dallas Cowboys in 2020 and spent basically a spring as Michigan’s defensive co-coordinator before landing the Buffalo job when Lance Leipold left for Kansas in May 2021. With the culture building that Leipold had done, it was a bit of a surprise that the school went outside the Leipold tree for the hire, especially considering the odd timing. Linguist predictably struggled in 2021 and struggled for some of 2022 as well. But the good notes were great last fall and might have been the start of something coming together. It will be up to Snyder, Dolac & Co. to prove that the late-season fade wasn’t the end of it.
Was November’s improvement sustainable for Ohio and/or Akron? While Buffalo was rising and falling, a couple of other East schools were doing the opposite. After a 2-3 start in Albin’s second season, Ohio took a step forward in October then surged in November, stomping Buffalo and Miami and rolling to the East title. After collapsing in the wake of Solich’s retirement, the Bobcats ended up winning 10 games for just the third time.
Akron’s surge was admittedly less spectacular. Moorhead took over a moribund program that had gone just 3-27 in three seasons under Tom Arth. The Zips narrowly beat FCS’ Saint Francis but settled primarily for moral victories from there — losing to Liberty by merely 9, to Kent State by 6, et cetera. But they took a definitive step forward in November, losing to Eastern Michigan and Buffalo, two of the MAC’s bowl teams, by a combined seven points and throttling Northern Illinois, 44-12, in between. They exceeded projections by 22.2 points per game in those last three contests and by 12.1 points per game over the final two months of the season. It was as encouraging an end to a 2-10 season as you’ll find, and it earned Moorhead a contract extension.
Expectations, of course, are rather different in Athens and Akron now. Ohio should be in the mix for a second straight division title (and sixth overall) assuming quarterback Kurtis Rourke is 100% following a November ACL injury. He’ll have almost all of last year’s skill corps — including 1,000-yard rusher Sieh Bangura and top receiver Sam Wiglusz — and four of last year’s line starters supporting him. An offense that leaped from 102nd to 61st in offensive SP+ could see more ascendance. CJ Harris was decent in filling in for Rourke, but Rourke was outstanding, throwing for 3,256 yards and a 25-to-4 TD-to-INT ratio and finishing 26th in Total QBR. Older brother Nathan was a great three-year starter for the Bobcats, peaking at 16th in Total QBR in 2018; Kurtis could top that if he’s fully recovered.
The Ohio defense improved late in the year at least, allowing 20.2 points per game and 5.0 yards per play over the final six games. It finished 101st in defensive SP+ but must replace six of the 14 players who saw at least 300 snaps, including three solid safeties and rush end Jack McCrory. The offense could be even better, but the defense has to avoid getting worse.
For Moorhead, 2023 will be a success if Akron is still entertaining bowl hopes in November. The Zips have five to seven winnable games on the schedule if they can maintain last year’s late improvement. It was comprehensive — the offense improved from 4.9 yards per play to 5.7, while the defense went from 6.6 to 4.3 — but it was only three games. Quarterbacks DJ Irons and Jeff Undercuffler Jr. both return, as do the two primary running backs and two of three wide receivers. Irons is the best runner on the team, but Undercuffler was at the helm for the blowout of Northern Illinois.
For the second straight year, Moorhead brought some intriguing pieces in via the portal. On offense, former Florida running back and top-60 recruit Lorenzo Lingard comes aboard, as does Division III star lineman Ben Frank. On defense, the additions are more numerous and necessary. Among others, small-school stars Terray Jones (Tennessee State) and Ahmad Rabah (American International) will need to immediately boost a front six replacing eight of the 16 guys with 100-plus snaps. The Zips were legitimately solid in stopping the run, but turnover could impact that. The secondary returns mostly intact, but it was the weakest unit.
Was 2022 the start or finish for Scot Loeffler? After most of a decade of taking on salvage jobs as offensive coordinator (Auburn in 2012, Virginia Tech in 2013, Boston College in 2016), Loeffler embarked upon the next logical step in his career, taking on a salvage job as head coach. When he landed at Bowling Green in 2019, the Falcons had won nine games in three seasons, the worst three-year run of their six decades in FBS.
After going 3-14 with SP+ rankings of 128th and 126th in his first two seasons, Loeffler began to engineer at least a bit of success. The Falcons upset Minnesota on the way to a 4-8 finish in 2021, then upset Marshall and Toledo on the way to their first bowl since 2015 last fall.
Going from three wins in two years to 10 in the next two is clear progress, but the statistical growth was minimal. The defense took a lovely step forward in 2021 but could not solve third downs (or scrambling QBs) last year and plummeted from 82nd to 125th in defensive SP+. The offense, still moribund in 2021, improved in 2022 as the defense was regressing. You never knew which team was going to show up from week to week. The Falcons lost to FCS’ Eastern Kentucky the week before upsetting Marshall, and in November they ripped off a baffling three-game stretch, losing to Kent State by 34, knocking off West champion Toledo, and losing to Ohio by 24.
That quarterback Matt McDonald and three of his top four receivers are gone certainly doesn’t say encouraging things about the offense, but Loeffler brought in Missouri/Indiana transfer Connor Bazelak and welcomed back two pieces from 2021: running back Terion Stewart and receiver Austin Osborne. Slot receiver Odieu Hilaire was the Falcons’ most reliable big-play threat last season, and he’s back as well. A heavily penalized line returns three starters but needs to improve.
On defense, 16 players recorded at least 300 snaps, and while nine return, all-MAC edge rusher Karl Brooks, disruptive tackle Walter Haire and Jordan Anderson, an excellent nickelback, do not. Co-coordinators Steve Morrison and Sammy Lawanson will need to find some new havoc creators, though they’ll have one of the East’s better cornerback duos in juniors Deshawn Jones Jr. and Jordan Oladokun, and 2022 backup Demetrius Hardamon matched Brooks in terms of sack and pressure rates. He’s a breakout candidate.
On paper, Bowling Green’s growth in 2021-22 wasn’t as impressive as its win total. That could mean a setback (and potentially a meek close to the Loeffler era) is a possibility, or it could mean that, as depth and culture set in, slow and steady growth continues. We’ll find out.
What can Kenni Burns build in Year Zero? For five years, Sean Lewis coached with one hand tied behind his back. Kent State’s money-over-wins approach to nonconference scheduling meant that Lewis’ Golden Flashes played three mostly high-level power-conference opponents per year. They would reliably go 0-3 in these games, even when they played well, and they were forced to rally for bowl eligibility each time. They made it in 2019 and charged to an East division title (and 7-7 record) in 2021, but they fell short at 5-7 last fall, and despite one of the more impressive 24-31 records you’ll see, Lewis agreed to become Deion Sanders’ offensive coordinator at Colorado.
Unfortunately for successor Kenni Burns, a lot of Lewis’ players decided to seek a fresh start as well. The Flashes have lost 18 players to the transfer portal, including quarterback Collin Schlee, 1,300-yard rusher Marquez Cooper and five other offensive starters. Ten of 16 regulars on defense are gone, too, and Kent State ranked dead last in February’s returning production rankings.
Burns certainly tried to bring in talent from the portal (13 players and counting, mostly on defense), but considering the amount of turnover, and considering how important the offense was to Lewis’ success — the Flashes averaged a 49.3 ranking in offensive SP+ and a 121.8 ranking on defense over the last four years — it’s hard to see this as anything other than a Year Zero, a total reset in which a first-year coach should not be judged for a poor record.
Burns seems to have a pedigree for patience, at least. He coached for Craig Bohl for five seasons at North Dakota State and Wyoming, and he spent the last seven seasons with another solid program builder, Minnesota’s PJ Fleck. Xavier Williams, injured in 2022, and former Minnesota and Kansas back Ky Thomas could make a solid running back duo if they get any semblance of blocking, and 315-pound defensive tackle CJ West is a disruptive road grader up front. The nonconference schedule features road trips to UCF, Arkansas and Fresno State, which is bad but not quite as bad as normal. But Burns is mostly starting from scratch. Let’s see how long it takes him to build traction.
My 10 favorite players
QB Kurtis Rourke, Ohio. Rourke was on pace for more than 4,000 passing yards and 30 touchdowns when he tore his ACL in mid-November. If healthy, he’ll lead one of the MAC’s deepest and most dangerous offenses.
RB Xavier Williams, Kent State. He missed 2022, but the senior from Forestville, Maryland, averaged 6.8 yards per carry in 2020 and ’21 and should get all the carries he could possibly want on a depleted Golden Flashes offense.
Slot Odieu Hiliare, Bowling Green. The Alabama A&M transfer thrived in his first MAC season, catching 58 balls for 747 yards and six scores. BGSU’s 42-35 upset of Toledo? Impossible without his eight catches, 246 yards and two touchdowns.
LG Max Banes, Akron. A 310-pound stalwart along the Akron line, Banes earned all-conference votes as far back as 2020 and produced a 1.1% blown block rate (with only one penalty and one sack allowed) in eight games last season.
C Parker Titsworth, Ohio. Easily the smallest of Ohio’s starting linemen last year at 6-foot-1, 284 pounds, Titsworth was also nearly the best. He produced a blown block rate of just 1.5%, and he’ll helm an extremely experienced line this fall.
DT Daymond Williams, Buffalo. The former JUCO All-American has recorded 21 TFLs, 11 sacks and 22 run stops over the last two years. He’s also missed just three run tackles — if he gets his hands on you, you’re down.
LB Shaun Dolac, Buffalo. A former walk-on from the Buffalo suburbs, Dolac emerged late in 2021 and became a star last fall, recording 4.5 sacks among 13 TFLs and thriving against both run (18 run stops) and pass (eight breakups).
LB Matthew Salopek, Miami. It is hell moving the ball on Miami, and Salopek is a major reason why. The 230-pounder recorded 129 tackles in 2022, one for every 6.6 snaps he was on the field. He was disruptive too, with 9.5 TFLs and 16 run stops.
LB Bubba Arslanian, Akron. A captain since 2020 and one of the best run defenders in the MAC. Arslanian isn’t huge (5-foot-10, 220 pounds) but produced 10 TFLs and 17 run stops in 2022.
NB Michael Dowell, Miami. A good nickel is both a linebacker and safety, and the former Michigan State signee checked both boxes, combining 4.5 TFLs and two sacks with seven pass breakups and a tackle every 9.7 snaps.
Anniversaries
In 1973, 50 years ago, Miami embarked on an incredible three-year run. It seemed like every MAC team had a run of great results in the 1960s and 1970s, but it’s hard to top Miami’s peak. After establishing long-term success with a number of coaching greats — Sid Gillman, Woody Hayes, Ara Parseghian, John Pont, Bo Schembechler … there’s a reason why it’s called the Cradle of Coaches — the Redhawks went unbeaten under Bill Mallory in 1973, then kept the party going under Dick Crum after Mallory left for Colorado.
Led by stars such as Bob Hitchens and future Miami and Northwestern coach Randy Walker, they ended up a combined 32-1-1 from 1973 to 1975, with three Tangerine Bowl wins (over Florida, Georgia and South Carolina, no less!) and three AP top-15 finishes. A 12-team CFP in the 1970s would have potentially featured Miami multiple times.
In 1993, 30 years ago, Jason Taylor began his football — and basketball — career at Akron. In 2003, Antonio Gates averaged 20.6 points per game. It’s funny to think about, but the East’s best product might be basketball players-turned-NFL stars. First, you had Taylor, who played 37 basketball games for Akron, starting for part of his sophomore year (in which he averaged 8.0 points per game) before deciding to focus entirely on football. That was probably a smart call: In 1996, he had 18 TFLs and 10 sacks on his way to becoming a third-round NFL draft pick. A cool 139.5 sacks (and nine touchdowns!) later, he finished his career in the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
A decade after Taylor, we had Gates leaning even more heavily into the basketball thing. After transferring from Eastern Michigan, he averaged 16 PPG as a junior and more than 20 as a senior in 2002-03, combining nearly eight rebounds per game with a sterling 35% 3-point percentage. At 6-foot-4, 250 pounds, he wasn’t much of an NBA prospect, however, so he tried out for the NFL — as one does — and landed with the San Diego Chargers as an undrafted free agent. By his second season, he was catching 80-plus balls, and he would finish his career with 955 catches, 11,841 yards and 116 scores, an NFL-record for tight ends. Gates is one of Kent State’s best football players ever, and he never played football for Kent State!
Also in 2003, Bowling Green finished ranked. BGSU boasts 17 conference titles and a Division II national title (in 1959); it is one of the MAC’s more storied programs. But the Falcons have managed just one ranked finish, and it came without its architect. After leading BGSU to 17 wins in two years (quite a rebound after winning just 15 in the four years prior), Urban Meyer left to win a Fiesta Bowl at Utah.
In his stead, former offensive coordinator Gregg Brandon took over and led the Falcons to wins over ranked Purdue and Northern Illinois teams and a near-upset of No. 5 Ohio State. They lost the MAC championship game to Ben Roethlisberger and Miami, but rebounded to beat Northwestern in the Motor City Bowl and finish the season at No. 23. They would spend part of 2004 ranked too, winning another nine games.
In 2008, 15 years ago, Buffalo won the MAC out of nowhere. For a long while, Buffalo’s move from Division III to FBS seemed more ambitious than smart. The Bulls first moved to FCS in 1993 and managed only one winning season in six years, then jumped to FBS in 1999 and went 12-79 in their first seven seasons. They jumped to 5-7, easily their best year to that point, in 2007 under former Nebraska quarterback Turner Gill, but after a 2-4 start in 2008, they rode 1,300-yard rusher James Starks, 1,400-yard receiver Naaman Roosevelt and a robust plus-19 turnover margin to a sudden five-game winning streak that clinched the East title. As a 15.5-point underdog against unbeaten Ball State in the MAC championship game, they recovered four Cardinal fumbles, turned them all into points and somehow cruised, 42-24, despite getting outgained by 202 yards (503-301).
Turnovers luck wasn’t something we talked about very much in 2008, but Buffalo had it. Regression struck during a 5-7 2009 season, but Kansas hired Gill away, and neither Gill (5-19 in 2010-11) nor Buffalo (9-27 from 2010-12) recovered for a while.
In 2018, five years ago, Ohio fielded its best team. Frank Solich somehow never won a MAC title in 16 years at Ohio, but he did just about everything else, winning four East titles and taking the Bobcats to 11 bowls. (Total bowl appearances pre-Solich: two.)
The peak came in 2018: Ohio won nine games and finished 40th in SP+ thanks to a dynamite offense led by Nathan Rourke and 1,300-yard rusher A.J. Ouellette. It was easily the team’s best ranking of the Solich era, though losses to NIU and Miami (Ohio) by a combined five points kept them out of the MAC championship game. The Bobcats had to settle for a 27-0 pounding of San Diego State in the Frisco Bowl.