“Everyone has a plan until they get punched in the mouf.” – Mike Tyson (quote reproduced here in the original Tysonian)
In the age of intense scheduling pressure from franchise tournaments, and bilateral white-ball fixtures, this was as clear an approach to a Test series as Sri Lanka has had in years.
Essentially, it comes down to whether Sri Lanka’s batters can compete in the first innings. If they are blown away, as they had been on the two previous occasions, New Zealand will likely control the game. Even if they don’t, New Zealand might back themselves to make huge ground in the back end of the game, having just beaten England after being asked to follow on.
New Zealand WLDDL (last five Tests, most recent first)
Sri Lanka WLWLW
The surface is likely to start off green, as they often do at this venue. Towards the end of the match, however, it is likely to flatten out. There is some rain forecast for the first two days.
New Zealand are likely to have a four-man seam attack, consisting of captain Tim Southee, Neil Wagner, and probably Matt Henry and Blair Tickner.
New Zealand (probable): 1 Tom Latham, 2 Devon Conway, 3 Kane Williamson, 4 Henry Nicholls, 5 Daryl Mitchell, 6 Tom Blundell (wk), 7 Michael Bracewell, 8 Tim Southee (capt), 9 Matt Henry, 10 Neil Wagner, 11 Blair Tickner
Sri Lanka may consider fielding Lahiru Kumara for his pace, but his tendency to break down in Test matches may sway them towards the more reliable options of Vishwa and Asitha.
Sri Lanka (probable): 1 Oshada Fernando, 2 Dimuth Karunaratne (capt), 3 Kusal Mendis, 4 Angelo Mathew, 5 Dinesh Chandimal, 6 Dhananjaya de Silva, 7 Niroshan Dickwella, 8 Vishwa Fernando, 9 Kasun Rajitha, 10 Prabath Jayasuriya, 11 Asitha Fernando