Fantasy baseball managers sure do love their drafts, but perhaps they pay little attention to the annual MLB amateur draft — the one in which top, young talent from American colleges and high schools gets dispersed to big-league franchises. After all, unlike professional football and basketball, baseball players rarely impact fantasy leagues in their first few seasons and quite often it does not happen at all. Yes, things are very different in baseball.
In a related story, fantasy managers — and my hand is raised — have to love many of the players from the top of the 2019 amateur draft. In fact, when I looked at the fantasy teams I have already filled for this season, there was a common denominator when it came to younger players. Many came from that 2019 draft and it wasn’t just the top two selections, Baltimore Orioles C Adley Rutschman and Kansas City Royals SS/3B Bobby Witt Jr. What a stacked draft class for fantasy managers to enjoy this and future seasons!
Arizona Diamondbacks OF Corbin Carroll should be an immediate superstar, a legitimate five-category roto threat. Chicago White Sox 1B/OF Andrew Vaughn should emerge as a reliable slugger. Washington Nationals SS CJ Abrams should secure a top lineup spot and steal myriad bases. Detroit Tigers OF Riley Greene and Texas Rangers 3B Josh Jung should both hit. Yes, the word “should” is a popular one here, and perhaps it is greedy to expect all these players to perform to expectation, but they each have the ability.
On the mound, there are also several young pitchers from this draft already among the top 30 in our rankings, led by Toronto Blue Jays RHP Alek Manoah, Cincinnati Reds LHP Nick Lodolo and Seattle Mariners RHP George Kirby.
Call it coincidence if you prefer, but the 2019 draft class is teeming with emerging talent and it sure seems a wise plan to draft these fellows onto fantasy rosters. This is a rare occurrence, really. Take the top of the 2018 draft, where Tigers RHP Casey Mize and San Francisco Giants C Joey Bart are not exactly fantasy stars. Neither is Philadelphia Phillies 3B Alec Bohm, current Chicago Cubs 2B Nick Madrigal nor especially current Mariners OF Jarred Kelenic. That top 10 is a bit of a mess.
The top 10 from 2019 not only features proven, top-100 fantasy targets — several of them considered franchise building blocks such as Rutschman, who may already be the top catcher in the sport and 30-HR/30-SB threat Witt — but also other players who should at least pique our collective interest in deeper formats. The Oakland Athletics should give former Miami Marlins OF JJ Bleday and former Atlanta Braves farmhand C Shea Langeliers chances to play. The New York Mets should give 3B Brett Baty a chance for regular playing time. The New York Yankees should do the same with SS Anthony Volpe.
Fantasy managers should always strive for a reasonable balance on their teams, taking some risks in concert with upside and reward, and that means a mix of both younger and older players, durable and brittle options, taking into account positional needs as well. Of course, we should not target every one of these 2019 amateur draft options for one team. That is risky. Mix in safe, reliable veterans as well. But don’t be surprised if Vaughn finally clubs 30 home runs, or Abrams steals 30 bases and Lodolo strikes out 200 hitters. Perhaps Carroll and Volpe earn top rookie honors or Rutschman ends up in the Hall of Fame. Dare to dream!
Here are the other players on my annual “Do Draft” list, which takes into important account their potential for fantasy statistics and impact, in coordination with draft day investment. We would all love to get Phillies SS Trea Turner and Yankees OF Aaron Judge on every team, but they are among the earliest fantasy picks. For this exercise, we are using roto leagues as a baseline, rather than ESPN’s standard points format, unless noted.
RHPs Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer, New York Mets: Age is simply a number and the fact these future Hall of Fame right-handers combine for nearly 80 years of life on earth is not remotely a deterrent for me. Verlander was the best pitcher in baseball last season — the lone starting pitcher to finish among the top 10 on the overall Player Rater. Scherzer did not pitch as much, but he was fantastic as well. Do not expect either to make 30 starts, but when they do pitch, they will pitch well. I am surely not fading them.
1B Paul Goldschmidt and 3B Nolan Arenado, St. Louis Cardinals: The corner infielders for the defending NL Central champions seem like bargains to me in ESPN ADP, going late in Round 3 or early in Round 4. They combined for 65 home runs and 218 RBI last season, each hitting for average and providing a handful of stolen bases. We get durability and reliable run production here, with little risk. Not every fantasy pick needs to come gleaming with upside. The Cardinals, by the way, boast upside rookie Jordan Walker, too. He is not popular in ESPN drafts, but watch him make the team and hit 30 home runs this season.
OFs Kris Bryant, Colorado Rockies and Nick Castellanos, Philadelphia Phillies: These high-profile free agent outfielders from the 2021 offseason underachieved in their debut seasons for their new clubs. Bryant, 31, dealt with back and foot injuries early in the season and never recovered, hitting for average but little power in his 42 games and 181 PA. Fantasy managers coveted the proven Bryant due to the lure of him playing half his games at Denver’s Coors Field. Bryant never did homer there. Castellanos, meanwhile, played in 136 games, but hit only 13 home runs in his new home. He is a proven run producer and hitting in Philadelphia’s Citizens Bank Park is also fun. These veterans are going well outside the top 100 in ESPN ADP. That is entirely why they are on this list.
RHPs Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, Jhoan Duran, Minnesota Twins: Three very different pitchers from the same team are clear bargains in Round 17 and later. Ryan won 13 games as a rookie with a 3.55 ERA and a stronger-than-expected strikeout rate. Mahle struck out 210 hitters for the Reds in 2021, but he appears to be healthy after a challenging season due to shoulder woes. Duran is a dynamic, power reliever who just needs save chances to become a top-five fantasy relief pitcher. Bet on skills, and the roles will come.
J.D. Martinez, DH, Los Angeles Dodgers: Martinez, 35, hit only 16 home runs for the 2022 Boston Red Sox, but I refuse to believe it means he is not capable of doubling that total. After all, Martinez hit .286 with 28 home runs just one year prior. The Dodgers are one of baseball’s wisest teams and Martinez should bounce back. He will see plenty of run-producing opportunity hitting behind Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and others. I like several young Dodgers as well, starting with 1B Miguel Vargas (likely to play 2B) and OF James Outman, but for deeper formats.
Hunter Brown, SP, Houston Astros: The unsurprising injury to Lance McCullers Jr. opens up a rotation spot for Brown, a 2019 fifth-round pick who posted a 2.27 ERA between Triple-A and the major leagues last season. Again, as with the Dodgers, the Astros know what they are doing. I absolutely bet on the better franchises in fantasy drafts. Fellow Astros Framber Valdez and Cristian Javier are both top-100 overall picks and smart targets, but Brown is barely going in drafts at all.
Vaughn Grissom, 2B, Atlanta Braves: The team’s new shortstop with Dansby Swanson now gone to the Cubs, Grissom has the skills to best Swanson on the Player Rater. Grissom, who skipped Triple-A last season and helped the team after the Ozzie Albies injury, is a 20-HR/20-SB threat who should hit for a strong batting average as well. While fantasy managers cannot expect him to hit atop the Atlanta lineup, give it time. Look how great the team’s center fielder Michael Harris II turned out. Harris is going in Round 8 and, though he may deserve that, it’s Grissom who is the better value at least 10 rounds later.
SS Oswald Peraza and OF Oswaldo Cabrera, New York Yankees: Here are two young starters in a strong lineup being underestimated by fantasy managers. Peraza hit 19 home runs and stole 33 bases at Triple-A last season, and certainly was not overwhelmed in his month in the majors. Anthony Volpe is the better prospect, but the Yankees can be patient with him. Cabrera is less of a certainty at the plate and for playing time, but the Yankees cannot expect full seasons from Giancarlo Stanton, Aaron Hicks and Harrison Bader. Cabrera had a 24-HR 19-SB season in Double-A in 2021.