The World Baseball Classic is back after a six-year absence — it was originally scheduled for 2021 but postponed due to COVID-19 — and the 2023 version will be bigger and better than ever, featuring more teams and star-studded rosters.
The field expands from 16 to 20 teams, including first-time participants Great Britain, Nicaragua and the Czech Republic. While the British roster is mostly American-born and Bahamian natives, the Czech team is almost entirely Czech natives who have jobs outside of baseball — like the high school geography teacher who moonlights as the team’s center fielder.
Teams are split up into four pools of five teams, with round-robin games in Taichung, Taiwan; Tokyo; Phoenix; and Miami. The top two teams in each pool advance to a single-elimination bracket of eight. The Dominican Republic and United States are the two favorites, and while social media has marveled at the potential Dominican lineup, the U.S. lineup looks just as powerful. The U.S. is the defending champ, although Marcus Stroman, the 2017 WBC MVP, will be pitching for Puerto Rico this time around.
Let’s rank the top 50 players participating in this year’s WBC. Instead of an arbitrary ranking, I’ve created a WAR score — an average of each player’s 2022 WAR total from Baseball-Reference and FanGraphs, plus his projected WAR from the ZiPS and Steamer projection systems. For the top international players, we’ll make a subjective assessment. The No. 1 player? That was an easy call.
WAR score: 8.6
This will be Ohtani’s first appearance in the WBC after he missed the 2017 tournament with an ankle injury. It remains to be seen how Japan will deploy him, but Los Angeles Angels general manager Perry Minasian confirmed the team has placed no restrictions on Ohtani’s usage. Ohtani had said in October that maybe he could “pitch as a middle reliever or closer” and the Japanese team is certainly deep in starting pitching. Ohtani made one spring training start for the Angels before pool play action.
WAR score: 6.65
Arenado is coming off perhaps his best major league season in which he posted career highs in OPS+ and bWAR, hit .293/.358/.533, won his 10th consecutive Gold Glove Award and finished third in National League MVP voting. At this point, the question isn’t whether he’s on a Hall of Fame path, but how high he’ll eventually rank among the best third basemen ever. Arenado struggled in the 2017 WBC, hitting .161 in eight games.
3. Mike Trout, CF, United States
WAR score: 6.35
Trout is finally playing in his first WBC. Maybe he wants to know what it’s like playing for a winning team. The injuries have been the only thing to slow him down in recent seasons — a torn thumb ligament in 2017, wrist inflammation in 2018, foot surgery in 2019, the calf injury that cost him all but 36 games in 2021 and the back condition that limited him to 119 games in 2022. He still managed to hit 40 home runs, however, finished eighth in the MVP voting and his WAR projections remain high for 2023.
WAR score: 6.2
Another first-time participant, Betts is coming off a season in which he hit 35 home runs and led the NL in runs scored (the third time he’s led his league). I’ll be curious to see what kind of adjustments Betts makes in 2023. He’s coming off the worst strikeout-to-walk ratio of his career, with his lowest walk rate since 2016 and his highest strikeout rate (which was still well below league average). It’s clear Betts had a more aggressive approach in 2022, swinging at the first pitch 30.4% of the time compared to his career norm of 17.5%. That approach didn’t really affect his overall results and, indeed, his power numbers were up from 2021, so maybe he sticks with it.
5. Manny Machado, 3B, Dominican Republic
WAR score: 6.025
Jose Ramirez isn’t playing, so that least saves Dominican manager Rodney Linares from the headache of choosing between Machado, Ramirez or Rafael Devers as his third baseman. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is now out with knee inflammation, but even without Ramirez and Guerrero, the Dominican lineup is imposing. Check out this potential starting nine with each player’s 2022 wRC+ (weighted runs created):
CF Julio Rodriguez: 146
LF Juan Soto: 145
3B Manny Machado: 152
1B Rafael Devers: 140
RF Teoscar Hernandez: 129
2B Wander Franco: 116
DH Eloy Jimenez: 144
SS Willy Adames: 109
C Gary Sanchez: 89
That’s an average wRC+ of 130. The bench still includes Ketel Marte, Jean Segura, Jeremy Pena and Nelson Cruz.
WAR score: 6.025
For all the talk about the Dominican Republic lineup, the U.S. squad might be even better, with 2022 NL MVP Goldschmidt leading the way. Here is the potential Team USA lineup with each player’s 2022 wRC+:
SS Trea Turner: 128
RF Mookie Betts: 144
CF Mike Trout: 176
1B Paul Goldschmidt: 177
DH Pete Alonso: 143
3B Nolan Arenado: 151
LF Kyle Tucker: 129
C J.T. Realmuto: 128
2B Jeff McNeil: 143
Their average wRC+ is 147. Based on 2022 numbers, it’s not even close: The U.S. lineup is better. If you want another lefty hitter in there, find a spot for Kyle Schwarber and his 46 home runs.
7. Julio Rodriguez, CF, Dominican Republic
WAR score: 5.775
I’ll go out on a very short limb and predict Rodriguez will exceed that WAR score. Remember, he started off slow, hitting .206 with no home runs in April, and he also missed 30 games with injuries. He still became just the third rookie to post a 25-home run, 25-stolen base season and he hit .303/.361/.576 in the second half, which establishes a reasonable bar for what he might do in 2023. You might want to grab some of those Topps baseball cards.
8. Juan Soto, OF, Dominican Republic
WAR score: 5.75
Soto’s score is dragged down by a low 3.8 WAR from FanGraphs for his 2022 season — a full two wins below the 5.8 Baseball-Reference valued him and certainly one of the bigger spreads you’ll find among position players. Soto’s power disappeared after his trade to the San Diego Padres and his batting average fell from .313 in 2021 to .242. Still, he posted a .401 OBP. The rankings make for an interesting debate: Would you take Rodriguez’s power/speed/defense skill set over Soto’s supreme ability to get on base?
WAR score: 5.7
After a difficult first season with the New York Mets in 2021, Lindor re-discovered his mojo and hit .270/.339/.449 with 26 home runs in 2022. His WAR was helped by his durability as he missed just one game. Puerto Rico was the surprise runner-up in both 2013 and 2017, although it will be without Carlos Correa (he and his wife are awaiting the birth of their child in early March). The Puerto Rico game plan: Scratch out a lead and then hand the ball in the late innings to the Diaz brothers, Alexis and Edwin.
10. Trea Turner, SS, United States
WAR score: 5.675
If you just signed a $300 million contract, you better rank high on a list like this one. Turner has hit .311 over the past four seasons, is second in the majors in hits since 2018 behind only the next player on this list and remains one of the most efficient base stealers in the majors, going 27-for-30 last season. He has enough pop to hit anywhere in the lineup, but I suspect he’ll be in the leadoff spot for the U.S.
WAR score: 5.65
As he did in 2017, Freeman will suit up for Canada, in honor of his late mother. Freeman was born in California, but both his parents are Canadian and Freeman holds dual citizenship (in general, the WBC rules are much more lenient than the World Cup or the Olympics). Freeman leads the majors in hits since 2018 and has led the NL in runs scored the past three seasons (tied with Betts in 2022). After finishing seventh in NL MVP voting, he now has seven top-10 finishes and has 2.90 MVP award shares — more than Roberto Clemente, Johnny Bench or Derek Jeter. As for Canada’s chances in this tournament … well, they went 0-3 and were outscored 21-3 in 2017. Freeman and Tyler O’Neill will have to carry the offense.
WAR score: 5.55
Maybe our first surprise on the list, but Gimenez had an outstanding, underrated 2022, doing a lot of little things that add up: He hit for average (.297), hit for some power (17 home runs, 46 extra-base hits), got hit by a league-leading 25 pitches to boost his OBP (.371) and played outstanding defense at second base (won a Gold Glove). Or maybe it wasn’t underrated: He finished sixth in the MVP voting, which I did feel was a little high since he didn’t score (66) or drive in a ton of runs (69) — though, that was in part because he hit lower in the lineup for the Cleveland Guardians. With both Jose Altuve and Gleyber Torres on the roster, Gimenez may slide over to shortstop for the tournament.
13. J.T. Realmuto, C, United States
WAR score: 5.525
Somehow, Realmuto wasn’t even an NL All-Star last year — he had a so-so first half and then exploded in the second half when he hit .307 and slugged .583. He is entering his age-32 season and with catchers, this is around when you start worrying about their workloads, especially one who plays as much as Realmuto (he started 130 games last season, plus 17 postseason games). He’s such a good athlete it could be less of a concern, especially since his secondary skills remain strong — going 21-for-22 stealing bases and throwing out a league-leading 44% of base stealers last season. He’ll split catching duties for the U.S. with another player ranked a few spots lower on this list.
WAR score: 5.35
Subjectively, I would move him up a few slots based on what he did in his impressive Cy Young-winning season. But his ZiPS and Steamer projections are, umm, a little conservative at just 3.8 and 3.9 WAR. That’s in part because Alcantara averaged a somewhat pedestrian 8.1 strikeout per nine innings while other elite starters average more than one K per inning. It doesn’t matter in his case though, because his high 90s sinker induces so much weak contact on the ground. The Dominican team will roll out Alcantara, Cristian Javier, Johnny Cueto and Roansy Contreras along with a deep, hard-throwing bullpen that includes the Houston Astros trio of Rafael Montero, Bryan Abreu and Hector Neris. There’s a reason this team is No. 1 in our WBC Power Rankings.
15. Jose Altuve, 2B, Venezuela
Venezuela has had some disappointing tournaments, going 0-3 in the second round in 2017, failing to make it out of the first round in 2013 and never having reached the semifinals. This looks like the country’s best team, however, especially on the pitching side. We’ll get to that later, but with Altuve leading the way, here’s a possible lineup with 2022 wRC+:
CF Ronald Acuna Jr.: 114
1B Luis Arraez: 131
DH Jose Altuve: 164
3B Eugenio Suarez: 131
RF Anthony Santander: 120
SS Andres Gimenez: 140
C Salvador Perez: 108
2B Gleyber Torres: 115
LF David Peralta: 104
That’s an average wRC+ of 125 … not too far behind the Dominican Republic. This is going to be fun.
WAR score: 5.25
Bogaerts’ projections of 4.6 and 4.5 WAR are well below his 2022 totals of 5.8 and 6.1. One thing to watch as he moves to the Padres: He hit .312 with an .872 OPS at Fenway and .271 with a .758 OPS on the road. On paper, the Netherlands doesn’t appear to have the firepower or depth of the favorites, but it reached the semifinals in both 2013 and 2017 and its pool group — with Chinese Taipei, Cuba, Italy and Panama — is the weakest of the four.
17. Kyle Tucker, OF, United States
WAR score: 5.0
Tucker’s batting average fell from .294 to .257 last season, but he still hit 30 home runs, drove in 107 runs, stole 25 bases, struck out fewer than 100 times and won a Gold Glove. He is a really underrated player and I think he’s primed for a top-10 American League MVP kind of season. In the WBC, Tucker will share outfield duties with Trout, Betts, Cedric Mullins and Kyle Schwarber.
WAR score: 5.0
Born in Michigan and raised in San Diego, Edman is of Korean descent on his mother’s side so he’ll suit up for Korea. This team includes Padres infielder Ha-Seong Kim, so Korea has a terrific up-the-middle pair. Subjectively, I wouldn’t rate Edman this high, because his WAR in 2022 was boosted by excellent defensive metrics and he tailed off at the plate after a hot start.
19. Rafael Devers, 3B, Dominican Republic
WAR score: 4.725
Case in point: I’m pretty sure Edman is never going to receive a $313.5 million contract extension like Devers just received.
19. (tie) Jeff McNeil, 2B, United States
WAR score: 4.725
Speaking of contract extensions, McNeil’s five-year deal with the Mets (including a 2027 team option) will pay him $63.75 million. You may be wondering how, if WAR values Devers and McNeil similarly, the contracts can be so different. The answer: McNeil is five years older, so he’s already entering his age-31 season. Still, he’s coming off a batting title and has hit .300 in four of his five major league seasons.
21. Willy Adames, SS, Dominican Republic
WAR score: 4.4
Adames is one of those players who would be a top-10 MVP candidate if he could consolidate all of the good things he does into a single season. He hit 31 home runs in 2022 and had his best defensive season, but his batting average and OBP dropped from 2021. There will probably always be volatility in his offensive game due to the strikeouts, but his power/defense combo is valuable and he’s in the middle of his prime years.
22. Will Smith, C, United States
WAR score: 4.325
The Los Angeles Dodgers have a history of good catchers: Campanella in the 1950s, Johnny Roseboro in the 1960s, Steve Yeager and Joe Ferguson in the 1970s, Mike Scioscia in the 1980s, Mike Piazza in the 1990s, Paul Lo Duca and Russell Martin in the 2000s, Yasmani Grandal in the late 2010s and now Smith. That’s quite a run (and Diego Cartaya is one of the top prospects in the minors).
23. Pete Alonso, 1B, United States
WAR score: 4.2
Alonso is about as safe a projection as you will find. He posted 4.4 and 4.0 WAR in 2022, 4.2 and 3.3 (FanGraphs) in 2021 and has projections of 4.4 and 4.0 for 2023. He’s durable, he’s going to hit home runs, he’s not going to see wide swings in his defensive value and he’s right in his prime at age 28.
24. Ronald Acuna Jr., OF, Venezuela
WAR score: 4.025
I’ll take the over, thank you very much. Acuna’s WAR score is held down by time missed after 2021’s knee surgery combined with a lack of power compared to his career norms. Based only on the two 2023 projections, he would rank eighth — above Lindor, Machado and Freeman, among others — so the computers expect his power to return. If it does, he’ll return to being one of the best all-around players in the game.
25. Munetaka Murakami, 3B, Japan
WAR score: N/A
In his age-22 season, Murakami had one of the greatest offensive seasons in NPB history, hitting .318/.458/.711 and setting a record for a Japanese-born player with 56 home runs. Did we mention he was 22? And that he signed a three-year extension with Yakult and will then be posted to the majors after the 2025 season? I ranked the slugging prodigy behind Alonso since he compares to him (other than that he hits left-handed).
By all accounts he’s not a third baseman, so when he comes to the U.S., he likely moves to first base or the outfield. There are also reports that the advanced metrics out of Japan point to a high swing-and-miss rate at pitches in the strike zone, which could be exploited against the deeper pitching staff in MLB (he fanned 128 times while drawing 93 unintentional walks). For now, he looks like one of the best hitters in the world and is certainly one of the more interesting players to watch in the tournament.
26. Wander Franco, SS, Dominican Republic
WAR score: 3.85
Don’t sell those rookie cards just yet. Yes, his sophomore season was mildly disappointing as he hit .277 and played in just 83 games, but he still looks like a future batting champ due to his elite contact skills — oh, and he’s just entering his age-22 season. He’s hit 13 home runs in 153 career games, so we’re still waiting for the power to develop but I could see him churning out a decade’s worth of .320 average, 20-home run seasons.
WAR score: 3.725
Urias is 37-10 with a 2.57 ERA over the past two seasons, but the projection systems don’t forecast the same kind of success, with ZiPS projecting a 3.19 ERA and Steamer a 4.04 ERA. Urias’ strikeout rates aren’t super elite, so that’s one reason the systems don’t see him as an ace, but like Alcantara, he gets a lot of soft contact. Mexico’s roster certainly isn’t as star-studded as some of the big boys, but a sneaky good pitching staff with Urias, Patrick Sandoval, Taijuan Walker, Jose Urquidy and Giovanny Gallegos could set Mexico up as the tournament’s sleeper team.
28. Yoshinobu Yamamoto, P, Japan
WAR score: N/A
Winner of the Sawamura Award the past two seasons — the Japanese version of the Cy Young Award — Yamamoto should line up as the ace of the Japanese staff, even ahead of Ohtani and Yu Darvish. He went 15-5 with a 1.68 ERA, 205 strikeouts in 193 innings and just six home runs allowed. Oh, and in case you’re interested: He’s just 24, will reportedly be posted to MLB by the Orix Buffaloes after the season and sits in the mid-90s with a plus-plus splitter and curveball. Scouts regard him as better than Kodai Senga, who signed a five-year, $75 million deal with the Mets (he’s not playing in the WBC) and this ranking may definitely be too low.
29. Luis Arraez, IF, Venezuela
WAR score: 3.7
Now with the Miami Marlins, he’s coming off a batting title with the Minnesota Twins — however, his .316 mark was the lowest average for a champ since Tony Gwynn’s .313 in 1988.
WAR score: 2.475
OK, I’m breaking the rules here and moving Diaz up into the top 50. If we stuck to raw WAR, Diaz would have just missed, which doesn’t feel right for a player who re-signed with the Mets on a five-year, $102 million contract following one of the most dominant relief seasons in history.
31. Ha-Seong Kim, IF, Korea
WAR score: 3.675
Kim’s score received a boost from a 5.1 WAR via Baseball-Reference, which liked his defense at shortstop for the Padres. The projection systems see him more as a 3-win player, which feels a little more accurate given his .251/.325/.383 batting line.
WAR score: 3.6
That WAR score is based only on his two projections. The second-best hitter in Japan in 2022, Yoshida hit .336/.449/.559 and the Boston Red Sox are buying big time into his on-base skills after giving him a five-year, $90 million contract. The deal was met with some surprise across the sport for a player limited to left field and whose power (21 home runs in Japan) may not translate to MLB, but the Red Sox see a leadoff hitter who will score 100 runs.
33. Cedric Mullins, CF, United States
WAR score: 3.575
He didn’t match his 30-30 season from 2021 as his home runs fell from 30 to 16 — probably more a result of the ball than anything, as he did hit a lot of fence-scrapers in 2021. He’ll be second string to Trout in center field.
34. Yu Darvish, P, Japan
WAR score: 3.55
Japan won the first World Baseball Classics in 2006 and 2009 and it’s a huge, huge deal over there. Japan is the only team to reach all four semifinals, but the third-place finishes in the last two tournaments won’t fly. Darvish is appearing in his second WBC, but his first since 2009, when he was the winning pitcher in the championship game against Korea.
35. Jeremy Pena, SS, Dominican Republic
WAR score: 3.475
Coming off his outstanding rookie season with the Astros, when he won MVP honors in the ALCS and World Series, Pena will battle Adames, Franco, Marte and Segura for playing time at shortstop and second base.
36. Roki Sasaki, P, Japan
WAR score: N/A
Sasaki made headlines last season for the Chiba Lotte Marines when he nearly threw back-to-back perfect games at age 20; he threw one and then was pulled after eight perfect innings and 102 pitches in his next start (former major leaguer Tadahito Iguchi was the manager who had to make the painful decision). In the perfect game, he fanned an NPB record 19 batters and set another mark with 13 consecutive K’s (the MLB record is 10 in a row). The 6-2 right-hander touches 100 mph, owns a whiff-inducing splitter and finished the season with a 2.02 ERA and 173 strikeouts and 23 walks in 129⅓ innings. He still needs to fine-tune his slider and scouts worry about his violent delivery and heavy workload as an amateur, but he’s already one of the best pitchers in Japan.
37. Gleyber Torres, 2B, Venezuela
WAR score: 3.35
Torres’ 2019 season was so impressive — 38 home runs at age 22 — and his 2020 and 2021 seasons so disappointing that it’s easy to gloss over that he had a solid 2022. He’s not the star New York Yankees fans once envisioned and he frustrates at times, but I think the Yankees were smart not to trade him until they’re sure they have somebody better.
WAR score: 3.25
I guess this arguably makes Singer the ace of the U.S. staff, although let’s see who Mark DeRosa and pitching coach Andy Pettitte rely on for the big games with veterans like Adam Wainwright, Miles Mikolas, Merrill Kelly and Lance Lynn around — plus a bullpen that includes Devin Williams, Ryan Pressly, Daniel Bard, David Bednar, Jason Adam, Brooks Raley and Adam Ottavino.
38. (tie) Eugenio Suarez, 3B, Venezuela
WAR score: 3.25
After struggling to hit for average with the Cincinnati Reds in 2020 and 2021, Suarez was essentially a salary dump throw-in to the Seattle Mariners in the Jesse Winker trade. Instead, Winker struggled and Suarez had a very good season with 31 home runs and a 129 OPS+. The projections forecast regression, but Suarez is second in the majors in home runs since 2018, just four behind Aaron Judge.
WAR score: 3.15
For the first time, Cuba, the runner-up in the first WBC, is allowing major and minor leaguers who defected to play for the team — although most of the best major leaguers, including Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu, Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Yandy Diaz, will not be playing. Robert, Chicago White Sox teammate Yoan Moncada and Mets’ Yoenis Cespedes headline the roster. Robert has shown flashes of brilliant all-around play, especially in 2021, but he’s played just 166 games the past two seasons.
40. (tie) Patrick Sandoval, P, Mexico
WAR score: 3.15
The lefty starter had an under-the-radar season for the Angels, posting a 2.91 ERA/3.09 FIP over 27 starts. He has a full five-pitch repertoire including a worm-inducing sinker, outstanding changeup and a wipeout slider that allowed him to dominate lefties.
WAR score: 3.125
The long-time major leaguer had a career season with the Texas Rangers in 2022, going 12-8 with a 2.89 ERA and making his first All-Star Game. He averaged just 7.7 K’s per nine and his previous track record — his only other season with an ERA under 4.00 came back in 2013 — suggests some regression is likely.
WAR score: 2.975
We know Arozarena loves the big moments: Think back to the 2020 postseason when he crushed 10 home runs in 20 games for the Tampa Bay Rays. Arozarena is a Cuba native but lived in Mexico after defecting and became a Mexican citizen last year.
WAR score: 2.875
While the Mexico lineup lacks the firepower of the U.S. or Dominican squads, it is certainly good enough to pull off some upsets and make a run if the pitching comes through. Besides Arozarena and Urias, the roster features major leaguers Isaac Paredes, Rowdy Tellez, Alex Verdugo, Alek Thomas, Austin Barnes, Joey Meneses, Jonathan Aranda and Jarren Duran.
44. (tie) Cristian Javier, P, Dominican Republic
WAR score: 2.875
The projections are giving Javier just 2.1 and 2.3 WAR … which feels way, way, way too low for a pitcher who last season had a 2.54 ERA, held batters to a .170/.252/.305 batting line and then dominated in his two postseason starts, allowing one hit and no runs over 11⅓ innings against the Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies. The Astros should ramp up his workload from last year’s 148 innings and that could make him a sleeper Cy Young contender. In other words, I would rank him much higher.
46. Kyle Schwarber, LF, United States
WAR score: 2.725
Coming off his NL-leading 46 home runs, Schwarber could see some action at DH and left field, especially since the U.S. lineup leans right-handed otherwise.
47. Jung-hoo Lee, CF, Korea
WAR score: N/A
The reigning KBO MVP, Lee hit .349/.421/.575 with 23 home runs and just 32 strikeouts in 627 plate appearances. His .342 career average is the highest in KBO history for players with at least 3,000 plate appearances. He’s also just 24 and his team, the Kiwoom Heroes, has said that he will be posted to MLB after the 2023 season, making him an intriguing international free agent next offseason. As a comparison, his KBO numbers surpass those of Ha-Seong Kim, although scouts wonder how he’ll hit against the better velocity he’ll see in MLB. He has also one of the best nicknames of all time: Grandson of the Wind, a play off his father, KBO legend Jong-beom Lee, who was nicknamed Son of the Wind.
WAR score: 2.65
In 2022, his first full season with the Rays, Paredes hit just .205 — but with 20 home runs in 331 at-bats and a good walk rate, he ended up with a 114 OPS+ while starting games at third, second and first. I wouldn’t take him over some of the “just missed” guys below, but he’s still just 24. If he can improve his BABIP, you might see a higher average to go with the power.
WAR score: 2.575
After a down year at the plate with the Detroit Tigers in 2022, Baez cracks the top 50 on the strength of his defense and better projections for 2023.
49. (tie) Pablo Lopez, RHP, Venezuela
WAR score: 2.575
Now with the Twins, Lopez is coming off his first full healthy season in the majors, posting a 3.75 ERA over 32 starts and 180 innings for the Marlins — and he owns a 3.52 ERA over the past three seasons. At just 27, many believe the best is yet to come.
Just missed: Lars Nootbaar (Japan), Teoscar Hernandez (Dominican Republic), Tim Anderson (USA), Ranger Suarez (Venezuela), Ketel Marte (Dominican Republic), Anthony Santander (Venezuela), Marcus Stroman (Puerto Rico), Miles Mikolas (USA), Salvador Perez (Venezuela), Vinnie Pasquantino (Italy).
Alas, the Czech geography teacher/center fielder did not merit consideration.