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Andre SnellingsESPN
LeBron James just passed Kareem Abdul-Jabbar for the most regular season points in NBA history.
In the words of one of his first advertising campaigns, we are all witnesses to NBA history.
So how does LeBron’s record-setting career compare with the other GOATs on a more comprehensive level? There are many ways to compare the best, but do you remember when LeBron wore a t-shirt that said “check my stats”?
Let’s do that and compare the regular season stats for the top 50 players in NBA history according to NBA.com, using our ESPN fantasy points scoring system.
This is a lot of fun. Let’s get to some of the outcomes, featuring the all-time NBA Dream Team.
Look at the names on this list. I went down to No. 11 so we could include Kobe Bryant, and if I’d have kept going the next names were Shaquille O’Neal and Oscar Robertson. But at the top of the list, we see that even though LeBron may have passed Kareem in points scored, he’s still got a ways to go to try to catch him in fantasy points.
Kareem is on an absolute island here, with his high-efficiency scoring, rebounding and all-around game mixed with outstanding longevity setting the standard even though steals and blocks weren’t even tracked as stats until his fifth season (and turnovers not until his ninth).
LeBron is on a similar island, just under 8,000 fantasy points behind Kareem but more than 8,500 ahead of the group led by the Karl Malone. Using that 8,500 fantasy points number as a separator, the Mailman group includes Hakeem Olajuwon, Wilt Chamberlain, Kevin Garnett, Tim Duncan and Michael Jordan.
Wilt is another that has to be highlighted, because he’s No. 5 on this list despite playing his entire career without steals or blocks being tracked. This is hugely important, because every bit of evidence we have suggests that Wilt would’ve amassed an absurd number of blocks and steals in his career.
One study, scored from 112 Chamberlain games, shows that he averaged a whopping 8.8 blocks per game in those contests. There’s a very good chance that if the stats were complete across all eras, Wilt would be right up there with Kareem and LeBron at the top.
In fact, if we step away from longevity and focus on per game stats, we find…
Wilt and Jordan turn in the all-time highest fantasy scoring averages in NBA history, with Kareem and LeBron right behind them. How about that foursome for a Mount Rushmore of NBA history?
The top of these two lists also really hammer home just how long Kareem and LeBron performed at the top level of the NBA. Wilt played 14 seasons in the NBA, debuting at age 23 and retiring at age 36. Thus, he didn’t have very many seasons outside of his athletic prime, which helped keep his fantasy scoring average near a peak (and again, this is without any blocks, steals or turnovers!) but pushed him further down the totals lists.
What if he’d played in the NBA from age 20 through age 38? He likely is the runaway totals leader, even without the missing stat categories.
Jordan played 15 total seasons, 13 with the Bulls and another two with the Wizards, with almost five full seasons missed in two retirements between his NBA debut at age 21 and his final retirement at age 40. He’s another what-if. Could he have maintained Jordan-status year-in and year-out for 20 seasons, or would he have burned out sooner? But, conversely, another five full seasons of prime Jordan would certainly have vaulted him well up the totals lists.
Kareem played 20 full seasons, despite not debuting until he was 22 years old, and only missed more than eight games in a season two times in those 20 seasons. Not only did he play forever, but he played major minutes and almost never sat out. And to put things in perspective, Kareem entered the NBA the season that Bill Russell retired and faced prime Wilt, The Big O and Jerry West… and by the time he retired, he was playing against prime Jordan, and only missed Shaq by a few years.
And then, there’s LeBron.
LeBron is in the midst of his 20th season, but because he debuted at age 18 he’s still “only” 38 years old. And while each of Wilt, Jordan and even Kareem had much-attenuated numbers by their late seasons, LeBron’s current averages this season of 30.0 PPG, 8.5 RPG and 7.1 APG would fit right in with his peak seasons.
LeBron has also missed 95 games due to injury in the last four seasons after being an iron man for his first 16 seasons, which has allowed Kareem to maintain an 150-game lead on LeBron. Assuming LeBron keeps playing for at least long enough for his son Bronny to make the NBA, which is at least two more seasons after this one, his per game averages could slide further behind Wilt, MJ and Kareem’s… but if he stays healthy, LeBron is almost guaranteed to surpass Kareem on that total fantasy points list as well.
This is one last way to place LeBron in history, accounting for the way the game has evolved over time. Players today play in fewer games (load management), and also play fewer minutes per game. But, when they’re in the game, today’s superstars operate a high usages that only a few of their historical peers achieved.
Jordan is at the top of this list, as likely the highest-usage, highest-efficiency offensive player in NBA history. Wilt played one-fewer season than Jordan, but he played a lot more minutes because he almost never went to the bench. In the 1961-62 season, Wilt literally averaged 48.5 minutes per game! There are only 48.0 minutes per game outside of overtime! Thus, Jordan is on top here, while Wilt slides to No. 17.
I find it fascinating that George “Ice Man” Gervin and Kevin Durant are second and third on this list. Again, the ESPN fantasy scoring system rewards efficient scoring, and these are two of the most efficient volume scorers in NBA history. Plus, they are stylistic descendants of one another.
For those of you not old enough to remember the Ice Man… just picture Durant, and you’ll be in the ballpark. Kenny Smith has long referred to Durant as “Baby Ice”, in reference to how similar Durant’s game is to Gervin’s.
It’s also fascinating that LeBron, at No. 4 on this list, is slotted right in the midst of a pack of current players in Durant, James Harden and Stephen Curry. On the one hand, this could argue that these three current players might be able to eventually catch LeBron on the total fantasy points list if they play long enough… at least until you take a closer look.
At 38 years old, LeBron has played almost 18,000 more minutes than 34-year old Durant, almost 20,000 more than 33-year old Harden, and more than 24,000 more than almost 35-year old Curry. So, in reality, they are much less likely to catch LeBron in total points than he is to ultimately surpass them/extend his lead in fantasy points per 48 minutes. In fact, LeBron entered his record-breaking game behind Harden by a fraction of a point, but finished the night ahead 34.289 to 34.283.
All told, we are witnessing history with LeBron. His accomplishments stand up to the best of all time, and he’s still not done. For a player that was arguably the most hyped high school prospect ever to come into the league and actually exceed expectations? Re-writing all of the unbreakable NBA records? We’re looking at one of one here, folks.
LeBron James.