Bubble Watch: How to watch the bubble like a pro

The 2022-23 men’s college basketball season has already been a wild ride.

North Carolina was everyone’s preseason No. 1. Now you’ll find the Tar Heels rubbing elbows with NC State, Clemson and Pitt in Bubble Watch 2023.

Marquette was picked to finish ninth in the Big East. As we launch Tuesday, the Watch debuts by already showing Shaka Smart’s group as a lock to make the NCAA tournament.

And did we mention that mock brackets are seeding Florida Atlantic higher than Kentucky?

At least UK is indeed showing up in mock brackets. That’s more than can be said for the preseason top-25 likes of Villanova, Oregon, Michigan or Texas Tech.

It’s all been a shock to the hoops senses; but if history’s any guide, the surprises are just getting started. Bubble Watch will analyze it all in real time and help you draw an informed line between “in” and “out” for the 2023 NCAA tournament field of 68. (Then the NCAA men’s basketball committee, naturally, will do just as it pleases. The suspense is a rite of March. Embrace it.)

Once again, the Watch will be updated continuously from now until Selection Sunday on March 12. Whether a team is in action or not, its entry will be updated if the team’s path to a bid has changed.

“Locks” could in theory lose every remaining game and still earn a bid. “Should be in” teams will hear their names called on Selection Sunday if they just keep taking care of business.

“Work to do” is where the drama really unfolds. Pull up a chair and binge on all the dizzying ascents to “should be in” and shocking falls out of the Watch entirely.

Then, come Selection Sunday, you’ll still find a dozen or so teams marooned in “work to do” with no work left to be done — except to hope. Like we said, drama!

To estimate the actual size of the 2023 bubble, we’re projecting that there will be 22 one-bid conferences. In effect, that number would be one single-bid league above the historical average. If the field shifts, we’ll adjust accordingly.

Here’s our initial projection of the bubble:

Teams from traditional one-bid conferences: 22
Locks: 16 teams
The bubble: 42 teams for 30 available spots
Should be in: 20 teams
Work to do: 22 teams

ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others

ACC

Locks

Virginia Cavaliers

Should be in

Miami Hurricanes
Miami’s 22-point win at home over Duke was a welcome change of pace after four true road games in 21 days against likely NCAA tournament teams. A four-point win at Clemson was preceded by losses at NC State, Duke and Pitt by a combined total of seven points. Road tests still remain in the form of upcoming visits to North Carolina and Virginia Tech. Truth be told, there also is a loss to Georgia Tech on this profile. Even so, Miami could plausibly finish at 23-7 while competing for an ACC title and securing a projected No. 6 seed. An offense powered by Isaiah Wong, Norchad Omier, Jordan Miller and Nijel Pack is ringing up 1.13 points per possession against the ACC.

Duke Blue Devils
All coaches want to cut down on turnovers, but few teams stand to benefit more from actually doing so than Duke. The Blue Devils have posted a higher turnover percentage in ACC play than every team except Louisville. While Jon Scheyer’s group is dominant on the offensive glass, Kyle Filipowski, Dereck Lively and Ryan Young aren’t getting enough chances to dominate. Plus, a good Duke defense would be better still if opponents didn’t run as many fast breaks off live ball turnovers. If the Blue Devils enter the tournament on the No. 6 line, as currently forecast, they could put a favored No. 3 seed in a world of hurt by taking care of the ball.

NC State Wolfpack
The Wolfpack have won eight of their past nine games, including victories at home over Duke and Miami. At 19-5, NC State is off to its best start after 24 games since 2006. A vastly improved defense is the largest difference between a 2023 team projected as a No. 8 seed and one that went 11-21 last season. This group limits 3-point attempts, forces turnovers and holds opponents to one shot. On offense, the Wolfpack take incredibly good care of the ball, a skill that is something of a staple for Kevin Keatts.

North Carolina Tar Heels
After close losses at home to Pitt and on the road to Duke, North Carolina finds itself with one surprisingly important visit to Wake Forest on its hands. The two defeats dropped the Tar Heels 10 to 12 spots in both the NET and in the strength of record rankings. The best win on the team sheet is shown as the neutral-floor victory in overtime against Ohio State. Even though UNC took Alabama to four overtimes before losing, it’s conceivable that NC State is the only opponent defeated by the Tar Heels thus far that will play as an at-large in the NCAA tournament. To be sure, North Carolina is outscoring the ACC by a healthy margin, and on paper, this group still fits the profile of a “should be in” team. But at 15-8, the margin for error is shrinking.

Pittsburgh Panthers
Over the past two seasons, North Carolina is 25-3 at home, and two of those losses have been against Pitt. This strange, hypnotic power that Jeff Capel’s team appears to hold over the Tar Heels has given a significant boost to the Panthers’ tournament hopes. Road wins over UNC, NC State and Northwestern enhance a 16-7 record that also includes home victories against Virginia, Miami and the aforementioned Heels. A bid would represent Pitt’s first appearance in the field of 68 since Jamel Artis and Michael Young were starring for Jamie Dixon in 2016.

Work to do

Clemson Tigers
Since a home win over Duke established Clemson as a clear at-large contender, the Tigers have dropped three of their past six. Five of those contests were played against opponents unlikely to make the NCAA tournament. The sixth was a tough 78-74 defeat at home to Miami. Victories over the Blue Devils and NC State will continue to do good work on this profile, but a relatively low NET ranking suggests Brad Brownell’s group will need more such wins to hold onto a projected double-digit seed. Opportunities to record those wins will be plentiful: Clemson still has road games to play against North Carolina, NC State and Virginia.

Virginia Tech Hokies
In the wake of a six-point win at home over Virginia, the Hokies have ever so gingerly edged onto the bubble. On the one hand, that evaluation might appear to be a stretch. Virginia Tech lost seven in a row not too long ago, and it is 4-8 in an ACC that no one’s comparing to this season’s mighty Big 12. On the other hand, Mike Young’s group also has wins over the Cavaliers, Duke, North Carolina, Oklahoma State and Penn State. Furthermore, the metrics look bubbly enough, up to and including the borderline top-50 NET ranking. Congratulations, Hokies. You’re here. Let’s see what you can do.

BIG 12

Locks

Kansas Jayhawks, Texas Longhorns, Iowa State Cyclones, Baylor Bears, Kansas State Wildcats

Should be in

TCU Horned Frogs
The Horned Frogs are marking time until they return to full health. Eddie Lampkin injured an ankle against Kansas last month, and he has played a total of eight minutes since that game. Then Mike Miles Jr. suffered a hyperextended right knee early at Mississippi State. Playing with a reduced rotation, Jamie Dixon’s team lost to the Bulldogs and at Oklahoma State. For the time being, the 17-6 Frogs are being shown in mock brackets in the neighborhood of the No. 5 line.

Work to do

West Virginia Mountaineers
You’ll do a good deal of bubble watching before seeing another 14-9 team (that is 3-7 in conference play) as well situated to earn a bid as West Virginia is at this moment. The Mountaineers illustrate why it can be helpful to consult win proxies such as strength of record or wins above bubble. Even with nine losses, West Virginia ranks in or (depending on the day) very near the top 40 nationally for strength of record. Not that a bid is a done deal, of course. While the Mountaineers are included in mock brackets, they’re also being shown as uncomfortably close to the cut line. To feel truly safe, Bob Huggins could use more performances like the 32-point win at home over Oklahoma.

Oklahoma State Cowboys
Depending on the day you check the figures, Oklahoma State has either the No. 9-ranked or even the No. 10-ranked offense in Big 12 play. Yet at 14-9 overall and 5-5 in the conference, the Cowboys own wins over Iowa State and TCU, not to mention a season sweep of archrival Oklahoma. Yes, Mike Boynton’s defense really is that good. The Big 12 is making just 44% of its 2s against a defensive front line that features Kalib Boone and, coming off the bench, Moussa Cisse. OSU has won five of its past six, a run that has lifted the team into projected brackets as one of the last teams in the field.

Oklahoma Sooners
In the wake of OU’s 93-61 defeat at West Virginia, Porter Moser’s group fell just five spots in the NET rankings. The Sooners, however, are acutely aware that five spots can make a large difference. Last March, Oklahoma missed out on an at-large bid by just two spots on the S-curve. Not to mention, the Sooners were already being projected as one of the last teams in the 2023 field prior to the loss to the Mountaineers. OU has now lost five straight, and over those last three defeats, opponents have rung up 1.15 points per possession against this defense.

BIG EAST

Locks

Marquette Golden Eagles, Xavier Musketeers

Should be in

UConn Huskies
The numbers never stopped believing in UConn, and in fact, laptops rate the Huskies as solid favorites in their upcoming home game against Marquette. Say this for Dan Hurley’s men: They have contributed one interesting profile to the annals. Is this the team that started 14-0 with 13 double-digit wins over the likes of Alabama and Iowa State? Or is this really the team that is 1-5 against Big East opponents found in Bubble Watch? Mock brackets are currently answering this evaluative riddle by showing the Huskies on the No. 5 line.

Providence Friars
At this time last year, Bryce Hopkins was averaging seven minutes a game for Kentucky, Devin Carter was coming off the bench for South Carolina and Noah Locke was starting for a Louisville squad that would finish 13-19. (Fans of the Cardinals say those were the days.) All three are now thriving in Providence alongside returning veterans Ed Croswell and Jared Bynum. The 6-foot-7 Hopkins, in particular, has made a name for himself as a foul-drawing dynamo on the defensive glass. In the preseason, the Friars were picked to finish fifth in the Big East, meaning Ed Cooley is outperforming expectations for a second consecutive season. Providence is 17-6 and projected as a No. 6 seed.

Creighton Bluejays
Greg McDermott’s team is shaping up as the opponent that no No. 2 seed wants to see in the round of 32. This particular potential No. 7 seed lost six in a row at one point, a stretch that combined worthy opponents (including Arizona, Texas and Marquette) with some bad timing (Ryan Kalkbrenner missed three of the losses due to illness). Then again, the Bluejays also lost on their home floor at full strength to Nebraska. It all seems like a long time ago: Creighton has now won six in a row and is pushing the Golden Eagles and Xavier at the top of the Big East standings.

Work to do

Seton Hall Pirates
In his first season at the helm, Shaheen Holloway has his 15-9 Pirates drawing ever closer to the projected field of 68. Seton Hall has won eight of its past 10 by taking care of business against the bottom half of the Big East (going 7-0 against St. John’s, DePaul, Butler and Georgetown) and by posting a crucial one-point win at home over UConn. Now, the schedule becomes more challenging, starting with a home game against Creighton. The Pirates can be turnover-prone, but Saint Peter’s transfer KC Ndefo is one of the Big East’s best rim protectors, and Clemson transfer Al-Amir Dawes is hitting 40% of his 3s.

BIG TEN

Locks

Purdue Boilermakers

Should be in

Rutgers Scarlet Knights
In 2012, when the Big Ten announced that Rutgers would join the league, there was a fair degree of snickering from fans of both basketball and geography. No one is snickering anymore. The Scarlet Knights filled Madison Square Garden with a raucous crowd last weekend and defeated Michigan State by six. The win leaves Steve Pikiell’s team 16-7 and 8-4 in the Big Ten. Rutgers is on its way to earning a once unthinkable third consecutive tournament bid, this time likely as a No. 5 seed.

Indiana Hoosiers
For Indiana fans, a single game doesn’t get much better than beating No. 1-ranked Purdue 79-74 in Bloomington. The Hoosiers blitzed the Boilermakers for 50 first-half points then held off the inevitable comeback bid headed up by Zach Edey (33 points, 18 rebounds and three blocks but also five turnovers). The highly effective combination of Trayce Jackson-Davis and IU’s accurate if rare 3-point shooting has been this rotation’s trademark in Big Ten play. Now Jackson-Davis, Jalen Hood-Schifino and Indiana are on a path to equal or possibly surpass the No. 5 seed this program earned seven years ago with Yogi Ferrell, Thomas Bryant and OG Anunoby.

Illinois Fighting Illini
While neutral-floor wins over UCLA and Texas have aged beautifully, Illinois still presents one curious profile. Of the seven losses suffered by Brad Underwood’s team, four have come by a margin of at least 13 points. When Illinois is on, it is defending the paint at one end and riding five starters who all convert at least 52% of their 2s at the other. When the Illini are off, they’re losing to Missouri by 22 in St. Louis or to Penn State by 15 in Champaign. Mock brackets expect this varied and never dull body of work will earn a No. 5 seed next month, but first Illinois must play a two-game homestand against Minnesota and Rutgers.

Iowa Hawkeyes
Tony Perkins put his team on his back to the tune of a career-high 32 points and carried Iowa to an 81-79 win over visiting Illinois. Saturday’s victory lifted the Hawkeyes to 15-8 and extended a quiet but no less remarkable turnaround for Fran McCaffery’s group. A little more than a month ago, Iowa was 0-3 in the Big Ten and 8-6 overall, with a defeat at home to Eastern Illinois on its résumé. The loss to the Panthers is still there, but so too is a season sweep of Rutgers to go along with wins over Iowa State, Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, Clemson (at the Emerald Coast Classic), Northwestern and Seton Hall (in Newark, New Jersey). Today, Iowa looks like a potential No. 6 seed.

Maryland Terrapins
When the season began, Maryland was picked to finish 10th in the Big Ten, and Jahmir Young was a newly arrived transfer from Charlotte. Three short months later, the Terrapins are 7-5 in league play and projected as a No. 8 seed in the field of 68. Young takes a higher percentage of the team’s shots during his minutes than any Big Ten player except Brice Sensabaugh and Zach Edey. Kevin Willard has the Terps ahead of schedule, and the last box to be ticked might be performance on the road. The only true road games Maryland has won all season are at Louisville and Minnesota. The Terps can rectify this state of affairs in their next contest, at Michigan State.

Michigan State Spartans
Is it time to worry about Michigan State? The Spartans have dropped five of their past seven, resulting in a 14-9 record in which the “good wins” are over Kentucky (in two overtimes in Indianapolis), Iowa and Rutgers (the latter two in East Lansing). Plus, the strength of MSU’s defense in Big Ten play — 29% 3-point shooting by opponents — has been partly outside the team’s control. All true, but Bubble Watch is keeping Tom Izzo’s team in “should be in” for the time being. The Spartans have already played many of the toughest games on the schedule (Alabama, Gonzaga and two each against Purdue and the Scarlet Knights), a fact reflected by a very good ranking in strength of record.

Northwestern Wildcats
If you predicted in the preseason that Northwestern would emerge as one of the Big Ten’s best road teams, take one proud step forward. The Wildcats have won on the home floors of Indiana, Michigan State and Wisconsin. The two-point victory over the Badgers, in particular, reconciled what was previously a small disagreement between mock brackets bullish on NU and team-sheet metrics that were more skeptical. Now, however, the numbers have hopped on the bandwagon, and Northwestern looks like a potential 9-seed. This defense forces what for the Big Ten is a high number of turnovers, and Chase Audige, particularly, is a disruption specialist.

Work to do

Penn State Nittany Lions
Jalen Pickett has been possibly the best player in the Big Ten this season not named Zach Edey or Trayce Jackson-Davis. The Nittany Lions have been far and away the Big Ten’s most accurate shooting team in conference play. But opponents don’t commit turnovers and make 52% of their 2s like Micah Shrewsberry’s team does; both defensive issues were on display as Nebraska won by nine at home in a game Penn State really could have benefited from by not losing. At 14-9, the Nittany Lions are hovering outside the projected field, with rankings for both the NET and strength of record in the high 50s.

Wisconsin Badgers
Keep the faith, Badgers. The numbers on your team sheet correspond quite well with what we saw on Selection Sunday 2022 from Rutgers, and look what happened there. Anything’s possible for a Big Ten bubble team, even one that has gone 2-7 after an 11-2 start. Tyler Wahl was out for three of those defeats. The true road wins against Iowa and especially Marquette still look great, and the neutral-floor victory over Southern California straddles the Quadrant 1 borderline in its own right. For the moment, Wisconsin is well outside the bracket looking in, but Bubble Watch is keeping its eye on Greg Gard’s team.

PAC-12

Locks

Arizona Wildcats, UCLA Bruins

Work to do

USC Trojans
On the cusp of road games versus Oregon and Oregon State, Andy Enfield’s team should be enjoying the relative peace of mind that comes with a 17-6 record and a projected No. 9 seed. The Trojans take care of the ball and play exemplary interior defense. The Pac-12 is making just 40% of its 2s against this D. It all looks good on paper, but USC’s most pressing concern is health. The Trojans played their most recent tilt (a win at home against Washington) without either Joshua Morgan or Reese Dixon-Waters in the rotation.

Oregon Ducks
Few teams epitomize the “work to do” label more so than the 14-10 Ducks. If the selection were held today, Oregon would be exceedingly unlikely to hear its name called. But the 19-point win at home over Arizona in January did bring Bill Walton out of his usual soft-spoken reticence and had him rightly singing this team’s praises. Then came last weekend’s 75-70 win at Arizona State, a crucial game for a UO team that had recently lost at Stanford and fallen by 15 in the rematch with the Wildcats in Tucson. Now, USC and UCLA are coming to Eugene. There is a path to a bid for Oregon. It’s not the shortest or easiest one found in Bubble Watch, but it’s there.

SEC

Locks

Alabama Crimson Tide, Tennessee Volunteers

Should be in

Auburn Tigers
The last time you saw the Tigers, they were coming up on the short end of a 46-43 score at Tennessee in one of the lowest-scoring Division I games of 2022-23. But rather incredibly, it wasn’t even the lowest-scoring contest Auburn has played this season. In November, the Tigers defeated Northwestern 43-42 in the title game of the Cancun Challenge. Those two tilts notwithstanding, this offense’s ability to score in the paint is one reason Auburn is seen as a likely No. 8 seed. Give part of the credit there to Johni Broome. The 6-foot-10 Morehead State transfer achieved a minor miracle by getting into double digits (11 points) against the Volunteers.

Missouri Tigers
Missouri appears to be heading toward a spot in the vicinity of the No. 9 line, a trajectory boosted by wins over Iowa State, Illinois and Kentucky by an average of nearly 18 points. Then again, the Tigers also have lost to Kansas, Alabama and Texas A&M by an average margin of 22 points. Dennis Gates and his 17-6 team have seen their share of lopsided results. One possible explanation for such extremes could be Missouri’s exceptional ability to stay away from turnovers on offense while forcing them on D. When this doesn’t happen, however, SEC opponents outscore the Tigers by a wide margin on each effective (turnover-less) possession.

Work to do

Arkansas Razorbacks
SEC games involving Arkansas emphasize action inside the arc. In conference play, the Razorbacks devote a smaller share of their attempts to 3s than any team in the league, and Eric Musselman’s group also ranks No. 1 at limiting those tries from opponents. After escaping with a two-point win at South Carolina, the Hogs will bring this paint-heavy brand of ball to Kentucky for a showdown with the Wildcats. Bear in mind, Arkansas is showing up in projected brackets as a double-digit seed, and the remaining schedule is robust. In addition to two games against Kentucky, the 16-7 Hogs still have road tests to navigate against Alabama, Tennessee and Texas A&M.

Kentucky Wildcats
From the opening tip of the Saint Peter’s game in last year’s round of 64, it has been a bumpy and unpredictable road for Kentucky. The low point came when a 26-point defeat at Alabama was followed by a far more shocking three-point loss at home to South Carolina (which still represents the Gamecocks’ only SEC win). In the next outing, UK reached its high point in the form of a seven-point victory at Tennessee. As we said, unpredictable. In mock brackets, the 16-7 Wildcats are a familiar presence in “last four in” territory. Two games remain to be played against Arkansas, as well as one each against the Volunteers, Auburn, Florida and Mississippi State. A bid appears likely but is by no means assured.

Florida Gators
Todd Golden’s team played its way into this discussion with a 13-point win at home over No. 2-ranked Tennessee. A five-point loss at Kentucky came next. Now, Florida faces a road game versus Alabama. To this point, the Gators have outscored the SEC by about the same per-possession margin as Auburn, but UF lost to the Tigers by three and was swept by Texas A&M by a two-game margin of five points. With the notable exception of the two-point win at Mississippi State, close games have tended to work against the 13-10 Gators. For now, that tendency has UF on a good many “first four out” lists.

Texas A&M Aggies
When it comes to the Aggies’ tournament chances, it all starts now. For the moment, you’ll find Texas A&M right where it was last year, in the 30s at KenPom and perched right outside the field of 68 in mock brackets. Buzz Williams and his men will close the season with a challenging slate that promises to be decisive. In addition to road games against LSU and Ole Miss, A&M will run the gauntlet of SEC at-large aspirants: Auburn, Arkansas, Missouri, Tennessee and Mississippi State, capped off with a home game against Alabama on Senior Night. Henry Coleman, Julius Marble and Andersson Garcia have the Aggies pulling down a higher share of their misses in SEC play than any team in the league.

Mississippi State Bulldogs
In a home game his team needed to stake a claim to bubble status, Tolu Smith made sure Mississippi State came away with the win. The 6-foot-11 senior put up a 25-12 double-double as the Bulldogs beat Missouri 63-52. Pair that game with MSU’s home win over TCU and one on a neutral floor over Marquette back in November and you have enough to get a bubble conversation started. For the moment and despite top-50-ish rankings for both the NET and strength of record, Mississippi State is 3-7 in the SEC. The Bulldogs can improve that mark starting with a home game against LSU.

AMERICAN

Locks

Houston Cougars

Work to do

Memphis Tigers
Prior to losing at home in overtime to Tulane on Saturday, the Tigers were clinging to bracket life as one of the final teams in the projected field. One Quadrant 2 loss won’t push a team out of the field for good, but this real-life script is starting to feel familiar. Once again, Memphis is a bubble team; and once again, its postseason fate will be decided in large part by two regular-season games against Houston. Last year, Penny Hardaway’s team swept the Cougars in the regular season and entered the tournament as a No. 9 seed. This season, the Tigers will need to take care of business against the rest of the American too, starting with an upcoming game at South Florida.

OTHERS

Gonzaga Bulldogs, Saint Mary’s Gaels

Should be in

San Diego State Aztecs
In recent years when Bubble Watch has had occasion to track San Diego State, the story has tended to center on defense. No longer. In 2023, Brian Dutcher’s men are getting the job done primarily on offense. Matt Bradley‘s season-long number for 3-point accuracy (33%) obscures the fact that his shooting has warmed up markedly since the calendar flipped to 2023. Additionally, the Aztecs are recording easily the highest shot volume of any team in Mountain West play, thanks in no small part to the offensive rebounding of Nathan Mensah, Keshad Johnson and Jaedon LeDee. Pencil in SDSU for a No. 7 seed.

Florida Atlantic Owls
True road losses against Ole Miss and UAB notwithstanding, Florida Atlantic has been perfect in 2022-23. The Owls are 22-2, and it’s been the kind of 22-2 that has rightly impressed pollsters and laptops alike. Eight of this roster’s top 10 players for minutes were in uniform at FAU last season for a 19-15 campaign that ended in the CBI. Now, Dusty May and his players are reaping the rewards of roster continuity. Leading scorer Johnell Davis comes off the bench, anchors the defensive glass at 6-foot-4, draws fouls and shoots 90% at the line. Mock brackets are seeing this group as a No. 9 seed.

Work to do

Boise State Broncos
The Broncos were trending in a more “should be in” direction until they lost by 20 at San Diego State. That single result dropped Leon Rice’s group eight spots in the NET rankings against the backdrop of an otherwise quiet Friday night in Division I. The good news for Boise State is a road game against the Aztecs represents the single toughest test the Mountain West offers this season. A 24-7 finish to the regular season appears feasible for the Broncos, in which case they could be looking at something in the vicinity of a No. 8 seed.

New Mexico Lobos
You know Richard Pitino’s group for having distinguished itself as the nation’s last undefeated team this season. The Lobos started 14-0 before falling by four points at Fresno State in early January. Now, New Mexico is 19-4 and trying to work its way up from “last four byes” status in mock brackets. Jaelen House is building a case for Mountain West player of the year, as he hits shots from both sides of the arc and wreaks havoc on opposing offenses. In a recent win over Air Force, the onetime Arizona State player tallied 19 points to go along with five rebounds, four assists and six steals.

Nevada Wolf Pack
Nevada’s robust top-35 metrics have yet to translate into anything much better than “last four in” status in mock brackets. It’s a noteworthy predicament for a group that matches Mountain West rival New Mexico stride for stride on paper in terms of both NET ranking and strength of record. Nevertheless, the consensus at present is that Steve Alford’s 18-6 squad has work to do. Fortunately for the Wolf Pack, an excellent résumé-enhancing opportunity now awaits in the form of a road game against the Lobos. A win there would bump Nevada up in the bracket projections.

Utah State Aggies
Despite posting the highest turnover percentage in Mountain West play, Utah State is pushing San Diego State for the title of most efficient offense in the league. The Aggies shoot 3s, and Ryan Odom’s team connected on 18 of them at Colorado State; Steven Ashworth alone made eight treys and tallied 26 points. Yet USU is well outside the field in most projected brackets. When this occurs with a team in the top 35 of the NET rankings that also shows top-50 numbers for strength of record, it suggests the profile doesn’t offer enough “good wins” to please purveyors of bracket projections. Then again, this season is a work in progress. Next up for the Aggies is a home game against San Diego State. A win there would help.

Oral Roberts Golden Eagles
With Max Abmas draining 3s and 7-foot-5 Arkansas transfer Connor Vanover patrolling the paint, Oral Roberts has rolled to a 12-0 start in Summit play. It’s likely the Golden Eagles will reach the field of 68 with an automatic bid, and mock brackets are seeding ORU on the No. 12 line. But what happens if this group is upset in the league tournament? Strictly speaking, no Summit team has ever earned an at-large bid. (Yes, Northern Illinois did just that 32 years ago, but that was back when the league was the Mid-Continent Conference.) The metrics already peg the Golden Eagles as a classic bubble team, and running the table in the regular season would only enhance those numbers. We here at Bubble Watch will keep you posted.

Charleston Cougars
Can Charleston earn an at-large bid, if necessary? At 22-3, the Cougars are eminently worthy of consideration, and the team has its top-50 ranking in strength of record to prove it. The challenge for Pat Kelsey’s team is that in the past, the committee often has looked past the patient accumulation of a great many wins over teams that aren’t at-large caliber. The strongest team Charleston has defeated is Virginia Tech, which, to Mike Young’s credit, played a true road game at TD Arena. Note additionally that the Cougars have a decent shot at running the table and finishing the regular season 28-3.