In a season where the AP poll seemingly goes through huge swings every week, Charleston and Florida Atlantic deserve to be discussed among the biggest surprises. The Cougars, long considered one of the most coveted mid-major jobs in the country, cracked the top 25 earlier this month for the first time in 20 years. And on Monday, FAU joined them, earning a ranking for the first time in program history.
Pat Kelsey and Dusty May have Charleston and FAU, respectively, positioned as two of the best mid-major teams in college basketball this season. They’re two of the four remaining one-loss teams overall, and it’s not out of the realm of possibility that at least one of them is wearing home jerseys for the first round of the NCAA tournament. That said, Charleston’s only win over a high-major team came against Virginia Tech, while FAU split its games against Ole Miss and Florida Gators, beating the latter.
So how good, really, are these two teams? Can they win a game or two in the NCAA tournament? Or are they more likely to struggle when matched up with power conference teams in March? We talked to opposing coaches to find out.
What they do well
Offensively, FAU is a balanced group. Nobody averages more than 13 points and five players average at least nine per game. The Owls rank in the top 20 nationally in 3-pointers per game, making nearly 10 every contest, and they have six different players who have made at least 15 shots from behind the arc.
“It’s not like it’s a lot of firepower, it’s togetherness and simplicity,” one Conference USA coach told ESPN. “Alijah Martin is physically gifted, Michael Forrest is a gifted shot-maker, [Johnell] Davis is a heck of a one-on-one player. It’s not like an overwhelming amount of talent, it’s just a constant and consistent level of play. They’re making 3s. Their spacing is terrific. They really share it, they spread you out.”
Another coach said, “Their offense is predicated on ball movement, first side, second side, spreading you out, then breaking you down from there. They’re really good at sharing the ball, spacing the floor, getting you in rotations. Dusty is brilliant at drawing up things for his players.”
While FAU ranks No. 23 nationally in 3-point percentage and 19th in the country in percentage of points from 3s, the Owls have some balance on the interior in Vladislav Goldin. The Texas Tech transfer gives May a legitimate option inside at both ends of the floor. He’s an elite rebounder — especially on the offensive end — blocks shots and gets to the free throw line.
FAU Men’s Basketball Defeats FIU 77-73 In Overtime.🦉
Check Out This Clutch 3 From Michael Forrest 🥶 @m_ke1135
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“Goldin is legit good,” an opposing coach said. “He moves well. When he was a freshman at Texas Tech, [Chris] Beard threw him out there a couple times. He can finish around the rim, he’s very agile, rebounds his tail off. Defensively, he can hold his own. He’s really good.”
One unique aspect of the Owls is May’s use of three of his four best players. Davis, Martin and Forrest each missed time with an injury this season, and instead of immediately slotting them back into the starting lineup, May chose to use them off the bench. While all three see plenty of minutes anyway, it can be demoralizing mentally for opponents.
“It’s a psychological thing,” a C-USA coach said. “If we’re losing, if we’re not doing as well as we want to, if we’re down at the first timeout — and then their reinforcements are better than your reinforcements.”
Where they struggle
They’re overly reliant on 3s. They get less than 50% of their offense from 2s, according to KenPom, and they rank in the bottom 100 nationally in free throw rate. If the Owls can’t make shots from the perimeter, they become much easier to defend.
“Davis is a catch-and-shoot guy, Martin is mostly a straight-line driver. They don’t have enough guys that have wiggle to get by you and get their own shot,” one coach said.
At the other end of the floor, FAU prefers to play drop coverage in their ball-screen defense and swarm the paint on penetration. The Owls can be susceptible to effective 3-point shooting teams — as evidenced by C-USA teams making nearly 40% of their 3s against them this season.
“Space them out. When you attack downhill, they’re really sinking into the paint and collapsing into the paint on drives,” an opposing coach said. “If you can make 3s and make reads with the spacing, you can be effective. They’re going to force you to take and make tough shots. They don’t have a lot of plus athletes, they’re not overwhelming. But they’re really solid. I don’t think they’re going to break down over 30 seconds.”
Will they be overmatched in the NCAA tournament?
FAU has only played two high-major teams so far this season, both in early November. They lost at Ole Miss by 13 but beat Florida in Gainesville by a basket. In league play, they swept North Texas and beat UAB and Western Kentucky — the latter two have high-major skills and talent at certain spots.
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“We watched them play Florida and Ole Miss. Their talent was not far off. Now Florida is a bubble team and Ole Miss is probably not going to the NCAA tournament,” one coach said. “Their solidness, their overall talent isn’t a deficiency. It’s fine, because they have shot-making and that makes them a threat. Shot-making covers that talent gap.”
“They would be perfectly fine,” another coach said. “They’ve got a high-major center. They have Martin, he’s a high-major wing, Davis is a high-major stretch-4. Their guards are really solid. Even [Jalen] Gaffney from UConn is a good player. I don’t think they’ll be lacking in terms of talent, especially in terms of their top five or six. After that, it’s a stretch.”
Biggest key to success in March
Because of how much their offense revolves around the 3-point shot, making shots is going to be imperative. FAU hasn’t done that well in this regard in league play, making just over one-third of its outside attempts. Still, the Owls have made double-digit 3s in nine of their past 12 games.
However, multiple coaches said the biggest factor for FAU will come at the other end of the floor.
“They have to keep making shots from 3, but the other thing is being able to defend without fouling,” one coach said. “In one-game tournament scenarios, the teams that are lower-seeded, if you’re dynamic and good from 3, you give yourself a chance. But the thing that’s hard is if they’re playing against a higher seed, a Power-5 team that is physically imposing, you’re not going to get as many calls.”
One coach pointed out how much FAU struggled against Florida once Goldin got into foul trouble. Colin Castleton went for 30 points and 12 rebounds.
“There’s not a lot of rim protection once Goldin goes off the floor. They’re just not a ton of resistance,” he said. “Get him in foul trouble. Drive the paint. Go off two feet and finish strong. Force them to guard you at the rim.”
What they do well
Charleston doesn’t attempt to hide what it wants to do: play fast, come at you in waves and shoot a ton of 3s. And it’s working so far.
The Cougars, who played at the fastest tempo in the country last season, still play more than 70 possessions per game. They rank in the top 10 nationally in 3-point attempt rate, and they play nine guys for at least 16 minutes per game — with another player seeing around eight minutes per contest.
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— Charleston Basketball (@CofCBasketball) January 12, 2023
“They want to outscore you, they play at such a fast pace,” one CAA coach said. “They come with waves of dudes that know their role and they’re in there for a certain amount of time so they’re very aggressive offensive players. They’re men. They’ve got old dudes. And it’s such a frenetic offensive pace. You can’t get them into a pickup game.”
“It’s overwhelming at times,” another CAA coach added. “You have to be well-conditioned, you have to have depth [because] they want to change ends quickly, make or miss. You try to grind them deep into a shot clock, but they bring in another wave, those guys pick up, those guys get their shots up. It’s definitely not the norm, you just don’t find teams comfortable playing that many guys. Pat’s done a great job with that. Getting guys to buy into their culture and doing what they need to win.”
Dalton Bolon leads the team in scoring at 13.6 PPG, but multiple coaches believe the Cougars’ two key players are Ryan Larson and Ante Brzovic. Larson runs the show at the point guard spot, while Brzovic is a 6-foot-10 inside-outside threat averaging 15.3 points and 6.9 rebounds over his past seven games.
0:18
Charleston’s Ryan Larson finds Babacar Faye for the pick and roll finish
Ryan Larson finds a rolling Babacar Faye and hits him in stride for an emphatic dunk.
“They’ve had different guys step up every night. They might not have anybody on first-team all-conference,” a league coach said. “It’s such good balance and versatility with their scoring. They have multiple guys who can get 10-12 points. But Larson has the keys to the car, he’s driving it. He’s a playmaker, he has great quickness. And [Brzovic] has really improved. He can step out and shoot. That’s now another dimension they have, a five-man who can step out.”
Another strength for Charleston on the offensive end comes on the glass. The Cougars grab 35% of their misses, which ranks in the top 25 nationally.
“They have so many threats from 3, but they’re a great offensive rebounding team. They have four or five guys going after it,” one coach said. “Sometimes it feels like it’s ‘how quickly can we get it up and go get it?'”
“They’re the first team since I’ve been in the league that was so relentless with physicality,” another coach added.
Where they struggle
It’s difficult to slow down Charleston, but if a team can get the Cougars into a half-court affair, they might be vulnerable. Similarly, teams might be able to run them off their 3-point line and force them to get points in other ways. Easier said than done. They shot just 5-for-24 from 3 against Delaware earlier this month and won, and beat UNCW on the road in one of their slowest-paced games of the season last week.
Despite their 3-point volume, though, they’re not a great 3-point shooting team, making less than 33% of their outside shots.
1:41
No. 1 North Carolina gets past Charleston
Armando Bacot scores 28 points as North Carolina defeats Charleston 102-86.
“You have to be really good in transition defense, get them into a half-court game, guard the line,” one coach said. “Some teams have switched a lot of stuff and kept them inside the arc.”
“They’re a little bit ‘live by the sword,’ but they’re good at it,” another coach added.
One coach pinpointed Reyne Smith as the X factor for the Cougars. He takes more than 7.5 3s per game. At 6-foot-2, he rarely ventures inside the arc. But, he’s inconsistent. He’s shooting just 31% from 3 in league play on more than eight attempts per game.
“Smith is the wild card. When he makes shots, they’re really tough,” one coach said. “But you can slow him down and he’s streaky as hell. So who else can get it going for them?”
It’s also worth noting the Cougars have been on the positive side of variance so far this season. They’ve been in five two-point games and won them all. KenPom has them at No. 20 nationally in their Luck rating.
Will they be overmatched in the NCAA tournament?
Charleston lost to North Carolina in its second game of the season, staying in the game but ultimately allowing 102 points in the 16-point loss. Its best win of the campaign came against Virginia Tech, and it also has solid victories over Colorado State, Richmond and Davidson — three teams not nearly as good as expected in the preseason.
“They look like a high-major team. They’re relentless, they’re physical, Kelsey has them connected,” one coach said. “They’re talented, they’re deep — but the one thing they’re lacking is pros. They don’t really have pros.”
“From a talent perspective, they can be overwhelmed, but it’s a different preparation and pace. They can almost shock you with how they play,” another coach said. “But they have four guys in the paint going to offensive rebound. Will they be able to do that effectively enough against high-major teams? They couldn’t do it to Carolina. You play against an SEC team, an ACC team that has some dudes, they can’t do that. Teams that can match their toughness and physicality.”
Biggest key to success in March
Unsurprisingly, most coaches think Charleston’s perimeter shooting is going to determine how deep it plays into March.
“They have to make long balls,” one said. “They take so many of them, but their shot selection is wild. They fire them up and then they chase them down.”
On the season, their defense hasn’t been overly impressive — but they have held 12 of their past 13 opponents to less than one point per possession. Teams have had success scoring inside the arc against them. If they run up against a team that can dictate tempo and slow things down, can they win in a lower-scoring affair?
“They got to be able to execute in the half court. If you get them in the half court, they become normal. You can neutralize them there,” a CAA coach said. “And can they guard at an elite level? Can they stop people? They’re not great defensively, they’re just good. They outscore you. They can give up 70-75 points and score 80-85. In the tournament, they’ll have to be able to guard and execute in the half court.”