Breaking down the early signing period: Who won, who missed out and what’s next?

College basketball’s busier-than-expected early signing period has come to an end, and with the dust finally settled, there’s very little left to play out in the 2023 recruiting class.

Each of the top 24 prospects in the class are already committed, with 23 going to college and one, No. 11 Matas Buzelis, going the G League Ignite route. Only four top-50 prospects are still on the board, and at least three of them are considering going one of the professional routes after high school.

First, let’s catch up on everything that happened over the past week or so on the recruiting trail — and then look forward to the rest of the 2023 cycle.

Jump to:
5 winners | 4 teams that missed out
3 things still to come this cycle

Who won the early signing period?

Kentucky Wildcats: The Wildcats landed No. 1 recruit D.J. Wagner, beating out in-state rival Louisville for his commitment, and in the process likely secured the No. 1 overall recruiting class for the seventh time since John Calipari took over in 2009. Wagner is the fourth No. 1 recruit to commit to Kentucky under Calipari, following Shaedon Sharpe, Nerlens Noel and Anthony Davis. Kentucky now has four of the top eight players in the 2023 class in the fold, with Wagner joining Justin Edwards, Aaron Bradshaw and Robert Dillingham, with top-30 guard Reed Sheppard rounding out the class.

USC Trojans: Andy Enfield and the Trojans landed their first five-star prospect since Evan Mobley back in 2020, when elite guard Isaiah Collier opted for USC. Collier is one of the best guards in the class, an elite passer and playmaker who can make shots from the perimeter and get to the rim off the bounce. He’s a game-changer for the Trojans and vaulted them into the top 25 of the recruiting class rankings. He joins ESPN 100 center Arrinten Page, his high school and AAU teammate, and four-star guard Silas Demary in USC’s 2023 class.

Arkansas Razorbacks: The Razorbacks lost out on Ron Holland to Texas right before the signing period but bounced back by landing five-star center Baye Fall. Eric Musselman now has two top-25 recruits in the fold, with Fall joining guard Layden Blocker. Fall won’t make a huge impact on the offensive end just yet, but he’ll provide an anchor defensively, protecting the rim and making plays with his lateral quickness and ability to switch.

Colorado Buffaloes: The Buffaloes were as big a winner as anyone over the past week, both on the recruiting trail and on the hardwood, beating then-No. 11 Tennessee in Nashville on Sunday afternoon. But they also landed their first five-star prospect since the ESPN recruiting database began in 2007, beating out LSU for Cody Williams. The younger brother of lottery pick Jalen Williams, Cody has incredible upside and could end up as one of the best players in the 2023 class. He has versatility, great positional size (6-foot-8, 175 pounds) and has made defense a priority. He was Tad Boyle’s first-ever five-star recruit. They then went out and added ESPN 100 prospect Assane Diop, a versatile frontcourt prospect who runs the floor and plays with a motor.

Memphis Tigers: Penny Hardaway had a busy couple of weeks on the recruiting trail, going from a two-man group nowhere near the class rankings to a six-man class ranked inside the top 10 nationally. Headlining the group is household name Mikey Williams, one of the most explosive players in the class. Memphis jumped into his recruitment late and closed the deal quickly, similar to what they did the same day with Williams’ new high school teammate, Javonte Taylor. Forward David Tubek committed a day later and ESPN 100 guard Ty-Laur Johnson solidified the class later in the signing period.

Four teams that missed out

Louisville Cardinals: It has been a difficult start for first-year Cardinals coach Kenny Payne. Not only have they lost to Bellarmine and Wright State (and an exhibition game to Lenoir-Rhyne) on the floor, but they’ve also consistently lost on the recruiting trail. Aaron Bradshaw and D.J. Wagner both picked Kentucky, and if top uncommitted prospect A.J. Johnson commits soon, they’re likely to miss on him, too. They do have a pair of ESPN 100 prospects in the fold, however, in Curtis Williams and Kaleb Glenn.

LSU Tigers: The Tigers landed Mike Williams just prior to the signing period, but they lost out on five-star Cody Williams to Colorado. They hosted him on a visit and seemed to have momentum at one point in the fall, but the Buffaloes closed strong and earned his commitment. Matt McMahon’s program is also in the mix for No. 25 A.J. Johnson, but Texas seems to have the inside track if Johnson opts to decide in the coming weeks.

Cincinnati Bearcats: For a stretch in the summer, it looked like Wes Miller’s Bearcats were going to be the landing spot for elite guard Isaiah Collier — as well as his high school and AAU teammate Arrinten Page, an ESPN 100 frontcourt prospect. But Page opted for USC earlier this fall and Collier also picked the Trojans to close out the signing period. It’s still not a bad group at all for Cincinnati, however, with ESPN 100 prospects Edgerrin James Jr. and Rayvon Griffith committed.

Seton Hall Pirates: The Pirates made the final lists for both five-star prospect Baye Fall and ESPN 100 forward Assane Diop but landed neither player when the teammates and cousins announced their commitments Tuesday. Landing one or the other — or both — would have been huge statement signings for new coach Shaheen Holloway. Seton Hall will exit the signing period without a 2023 commitment.

What’s still to come this recruiting cycle?

Any twists and turns for No. 1? As it stands, Kentucky has the No. 1 recruiting class in the country, and given the players still available in 2023, nobody can catch the Wildcats. Of course, with six months until the recruiting cycle ends, things can happen. Decommitments, reclassifications, coaching changes leading to an influx of available recruits — that can influence how the final class rankings ultimately look. But with four of the top eight players headed to Lexington as the early signing period ends, Calipari’s program feels like a safe bet to finish atop the rankings.

Bronny James‘ decision: What’s going on with Bronny James? It’s very difficult to get solid information out of James’ camp. He doesn’t do media interviews and hasn’t had the typical recruiting process of a top-50 prospect. James did visit Ohio State, but the Buckeyes have some perimeter prospects already committed for 2023. Oregon has long been linked to James, while Michigan is also thought to be involved. Two other schools that have been tied to James are USC and Memphis. At this point, it’s entirely unclear when James will announce his commitment — but whichever school lands him is getting an instant-impact two-way guard.

Focus turns to A.J. Johnson: It’s extremely uncommon to enter the winter with zero five-star prospects still available. But the top recruit still on the board is Johnson, ranked No. 25 in the ESPN 100. He recently left Donda Academy for SoCal Academy and has taken official visits to LSU and Texas. There have been rumors he could decide in the coming weeks, in which case the Longhorns and Tigers — and the professional route, specifically the G League — would be the options. Louisville has pursued Johnson, but he postponed his official visit there and hasn’t rescheduled yet. But if Johnson decides to take his time with a commitment, other schools could jump in the mix and try to get involved.