Inside the battle for the No. 1 recruiting ranking, key risers (including Bronny) and more men’s basketball storylines

It has been nearly five months since the ESPN 100 — and ESPN 60 and ESPN 25, of course — was completely updated. In that time, we’ve seen new men’s basketball recruits establish themselves as five-star prospects, a handful of players make cases to be the No. 1-ranked player in the 2023 class, and plenty of commitments. Dozens and dozens of commitments.

In the past, a typical recruiting cycle would see a few players make their commitments early in the process, before the end of their junior year of high school. A couple dozen more would decide during the July live periods, or in the days and weeks immediately after the period ends. The fall would see the bulk of the commitments, with prospects taking their five official visits in September and October before a spree of decisions near the early signing period in November.

The 2023 class is moving much quicker, however. Of the top 24 prospects, only six remain uncommitted. Thirty-five of the top 55 players are already off the board.

Five-star prospects rarely rushed their decisions in the past, with plenty preferring to wait to see how the college season progressed before announcing a commitment. But with the transfer portal taking precedence in March and April, high school recruits are making sure they secure their preferred spot well in advance.

It means the top of the class rankings is already being formed — and there are fewer ways for programs to make up ground later in the cycle.

Here are the other storylines stemming from the complete refresh of the ESPN 100.

Jump to:
The battle for the No. 1 ranking
Duke vs. Kentucky | More hot streaks
Bronny cements status | Top risers

1. Race for No. 1 heats up, but D.J. Wagner holds on at the top

Entering the summer, Wagner was considered the No. 1 prospect in the class of 2023, with a gap between him and the players ranked closely behind him. When G.G. Jackson announced his intention to reclassify into 2022, that eliminated another potential candidate for the top spot. But after a July filled with multiple grassroots tournaments as well as the FIBA U17 world championships, the gap between Wagner and everyone else has shrunk considerably.

In fact, when I polled more than 20 college coaches and NBA scouts for their No. 1 player in the class, Wagner finished second — to AAU teammate Mackenzie Mgbako.

Mgbako is certainly in the discussion for No. 1, as is another NJ Scholars player, Aaron Bradshaw. Bradshaw jumped from No. 19 to No. 5 in our latest update. Another riser was Justin Edwards, who went from No. 13 to No. 2 after an impressive spring and summer that saw him average 16.6 points and 6.5 rebounds with Team Final on the Nike EYBL circuit.

There’s also Xavier Booker, whom we’ll address in more detail shortly. Perhaps the final candidate for No. 1 is Isaiah Collier, who can make a strong case as the best point guard in the class. Collier was sensational in the spring, ranking in the top five of the Nike EYBL in scoring and leading the circuit in assists, but he suffered a knee injury at USA Basketball trials and missed the rest of the summer periods.

Will Wagner remain atop the rankings throughout his senior season?

2. Surprise, surprise: Duke vs. Kentucky for No. 1

The two powers on the recruiting trail over the past 13 years — coinciding with John Calipari’s arrival in Lexington — have clearly been Duke and Kentucky. The Blue Devils and Wildcats finished No. 1 and No. 2, in either order, every year from 2014 to 2018 and again in 2020. Either Duke or Kentucky had the No. 1 class in all but one cycle between 2009 and 2018 — and again in 2020 and 2022.

And we’re headed toward that again in 2023.

After landing the No. 1 group in his first recruiting class at the helm, Duke coach Jon Scheyer is off to an incredible start in 2023. The Blue Devils have four five-star commitments, with all four players ranked inside the top 16: Mgbako, Sean Stewart, Caleb Foster and Jared McCain.

Calipari and Kentucky have two stars in the fold in Edwards and Robert Dillingham, and are also squarely in the mix for Wagner, Bradshaw, Ron Holland and more. This race isn’t close to finished.

3. Oregon reels in three top-50 recruits, pair of five-stars

Oregon was ahead of the curve when it came to winning on the transfer market, while also consistently landing impact players from Canada and getting reclassifiers late in the summer. In 2023, Dana Altman and the Ducks did their work early by landing top-15 prospects Kwame Evans and Mookie Cook. It’s the third year in a row Oregon has landed a five-star frontcourt prospect, following Nate Bittle and Kel’el Ware.

Evans dropped from No. 2 to No. 12, but he’s clearly a supremely talented prospect who just needs to put it together on a more consistent basis. Cook committed to Oregon in the spring, reopened his recruitment just before the July live periods and then recommitted to the Ducks after the period ended.

Don’t forget top-50 point guard Jackson Shelstad, an in-state product who earned Gatorade Player of the Year honors in the state and then averaged 14.5 points and 3.5 assists on the Nike circuit.

4. Iowa State takes a break from the portal for two high-level commits

Since arriving at Iowa State in 2021, T.J. Otzelberger has done most of his roster building via the transfer portal. The Cyclones landed six transfers in his first spring at the helm, convincing one freshman (Tyrese Hunter) to keep his commitment after Steve Prohm was fired, and then brought in another five transfers this past spring. Otzelberger did sign three freshmen, but none was ranked in the ESPN 100.

Iowa State has adjusted a bit with the 2023 class, though, already landing commitments from in-state prospect Omaha Biliew (No. 9) and skilled forward Milan Momcilovic (No. 31), who rose nearly 20 spots since April. Biliew, who is one of the best rebounders and defensive players in the class, should provide an anchor for the Cyclones’ intense defense. The 6-foot-8 Momcilovic averaged 17.7 points in 26 games in the spring and summer, shooting better than 36% from 3.

The Cyclones also already landed four-star wing Jelani Hamilton and forward Kayden Fish, giving Otzelberger a good core to work around when he begins searching in the portal next spring.

5. Ohio State continues recruiting hot streak

Chris Holtmann and the Buckeyes did their work early in the 2022 class, landing four ESPN 100 prospects before September ended. They finished with a top-10 class in the country.

It’s more of the same for Ohio State this cycle, with three top-55 prospects already committed — and a fourth, Austin Parks, just outside the ESPN 100. The headliner is Scotty Middleton, who became the first five-star recruit of the Holtmann era and the Buckeyes’ highest-ranked recruit in nine years when he picked Ohio State in early August. He joins ESPN 100 prospects George Washington III (No. 55), Devin Royal (No. 51) and Parks.

Ohio State now has seven ESPN 100 prospects — all ranked inside the top 60 nationally — over its two most recent classes.

6. Bronny James solidifies status as top-40 prospect

There’s a misconception that Bronny James is ranked in the top 50 of the 2023 class only because he’s the son of LeBron James. Some of the concerns emerged last summer, when the 6-foot-4 guard struggled to make shots in a small sample size of games at Peach Jam and then didn’t perform consistently in nationally televised games during the high school season.

But James has improved dramatically since then, continuing to play within himself and show off his advanced basketball feel while also getting bigger, stronger and improving as a shooter. He was excellent at last month’s Peach Jam, going for 28 points and six assists in one game; 25 points, 10 rebounds and 5 assists in another. James also shot around 38% from 3 in the six games in North Augusta, South Carolina.

This Bronny James block looks familiar 👀 @SCNext pic.twitter.com/q9L07V5jDM

— SportsCenter (@SportsCenter) August 18, 2022

“He really played well in the Peach Invitational; he took on a more aggressive scoring role in July. Granted, the competition wasn’t as strong, but he showed more assertiveness as a scorer,” one high-major college coach said. “Bronny actually plays with some similarities to his father — he plays high just like his dad does, he has a tremendous feel for throwing the ball ahead in transition. He keeps the ball hot, knows the right play to make and does so on time. He really moves his feet defensively and has the lateral quickness and strength to be a terrific on-ball, point-of-attack defender. The consistency of his jump shot still comes and goes, and he is not yet able to access his vertical athleticism in the half court. However, in transition or with a runway to the rim Bronny has some pop.

“Where I would like to see him grow is as a one-on-one creator of his own offense. You don’t often see him put together ballhandling sequences that lead to him getting all the way to the rim, or much shot-making off the dribble. I think Bronny has some NBA potential as a backup point guard. I would like to see him settle into college and continue to grow more comfortable finding his own offense, but he’s a good, smart player.”

James ended up moving up five spots, from No. 40 to No. 35.

Because the ESPN 100 had not been updated since before the April live periods, to see several players make huge jumps in the rankings is not a huge surprise. But unranked to No. 3 is a nearly unprecedented rise regardless of timing.

And that’s the case for Xavier Booker, the 6-foot-11 power forward from Cathedral High School (Indiana). He entered the spring AAU season as an unranked four-star prospect but then put together a stretch of elite performances with the independent George Hill All-Indy grassroots program. He backed that up with a dominant showing at the Pangos All-American Camp, earning MVP honors in the process.

“His focus started to kick in after he won the state tournament in Indy,” George Hill coach Mike Saunders said. “He blocked out recruiting, rankings and social media. … We’ve been hard on him, and he has embraced it.”

Booker has a long frame, advanced touch and truly asserted himself. He nearly made the roster for USA Basketball, and his upside is as high as anyone’s in the 2023 class.

Michigan State was on Booker well before the rise, offering him a scholarship last September and remaining consistent in its recruitment of him. It paid off for Tom Izzo and the Spartans, as he became their first top-10 commit since Jaren Jackson Jr. in the 2017 class.

8. More new faces into the ESPN 100

Beyond Booker, there are several new entries into the ESPN 100.

SF Andrej Stojakovic
ESPN 100 ranking: 25

Stojakovic brings a highly skilled game and family history, as his dad is former NBA star Peja Stojakovic. Andrej’s attention-grabbing jumper and fluid mechanics get results from both inside and outside the arc. His basketball acumen is strong, and he has shown he can be a playmaker and shot-maker. The 6-7, 185-pound Stojakovic is excellent against a zone defense on the wing or whether he flashes to the middle as a scorer. He can process the game with quick decisions and has strong anticipation skills on defense.

C J.P. Estrella
ESPN 100 ranking: 44

Estrella had a terrific summer as a consistent producer with the Middlesex Magic. At 6-10, he is a mobile big who runs with long strides, has a capable jumper and plays a team-first game. He is comfortable reversing the ball at the top of the key, then following his pass to execute a screen. He shows soft hands to catch and strong hands to slam it. His game has nuance, as he knows how to use the glass near the basket. Estrella has a nice knack of gathering offensive rebounds and keeping the ball high for smooth putbacks. Tennessee seems to be the favorite for his commitment.

G Solomon Ball
ESPN 100 ranking: 50

Ball, a UConn commit, has great length, speed and explosiveness. He was second on the circuit in transition points per game and was one of the most efficient volume scorers on the circuit, scoring 1.01 points per possession, according to Synergy Sports. “He has a lot of similarities to Donovan Mitchell,” said Brewster Academy coach Jason Smith, who coached Mitchell before he enrolled at Louisville and was drafted in 2017. Ball finds his way to the rim most times and is a determined finisher. Though he shoots just 28% from long distance, he has the work habits to change that entering his senior season. “He has a tremendous work ethic and desire to improve daily,” Smith said.

SF Paul Djobet
ESPN 100 ranking: 100

Djobet, from France, has impressive measurables (6-6 with a 7-foot wingspan) and a dependable 3-point shot with ideal size for a scoring guard. He demonstrates high-level speed and vertical bounce, as well as quickness to guard and cover ground. His shot-making abilities, both in transition and in the half court, impressed us enough to put him in the top 100. As of now, he has been receiving interest from Rutgers, Virginia Tech, Illinois, Miami, New Mexico State, Jacksonville, Samford, Iona, Troy and Manhattan.

9. More key risers in the top 100

SF Justin Edwards
Rose to No. 2 from No. 13

Edwards showed off how much more of a versatile scorer he has become, in terms of selection and location, during a strong summer. He is confident at driving a closeout to a dunk or a jump stop. At 6-7, he is a high-percentage scorer at the rim, was solid from 3-point range and even better from midrange. The Kentucky commit can also be ambitious on the offensive glass for extra points. “Justin plays the right way,” Rob Brown, director of Team Final, said. “He takes the right and open shot. He is efficient at scoring the ball.”

SF Cody Williams
Rose to No. 14 from No. 51

Williams is starting to realize his potential. The 6-8 wing is a smooth scorer with fluid movements and long steps when he puts the ball on deck. He plays with an even keel, is excellent in isolations at the top of the key and can run behind the arc or above the rim in transition. The younger brother of Oklahoma City Thunder lottery pick Jalen Williams, Cody is looking at Arizona, Colorado, Georgia Tech, LSU, UCLA, USC, Loyola Marymount and Santa Clara, where Jalen went.

SG Elmarko Jackson
Rose to No. 28 from No. 65

Jackson’s burst, focus, power and aggressive style of attacking the basket both in transition and against a set defense are evident. At 6-3, 185 pounds, he has a college-ready frame, takes contact well and finishes for the three-point play. He has great end-to-end speed to put pressure on opposing defenses, and in the half court, he forces the help defense by touching the paint on his penetration and either scoring himself or finding the open man. Jackson has excellent elevation and body balance on his jumper, and is more comfortable shooting from a rhythm dribble than a catch and shoot. He lists 11 schools in his recruitment: Kansas, Maryland, Louisville, Notre Dame, VCU, Texas, UCLA, Villanova, Virginia, Miami and Michigan.

SG Freddie Dilione
Rose to No. 27 from No. 97

The Tennessee commit has emerged as one of the top bucket-getters in the class. The 6-4, 185-pound guard has a natural feel for when to drive, pull up or take the open shot. Whether early in transition or late on the shot clock, and even when a set play breaks down, he will find a way to get his shot off without forcing the issue.

PF T.J. Power
Rose to No. 40 from No. 99

Power has a quick shooting trigger with NBA range. Not only is he an elite shooter, but he understands the importance to cut off screens to get his shot off and how to play lower with the ball in his hands for better leverage. The 6-8, 210-pound Power is a threat in the low and midpost, as he can turn and shoot or shot-fake and score. He possesses terrific shooting versatility and will be a big part of any offense as a stretch forward who needs to give the defensive end some attention. His recruitment will come down to Duke, North Carolina, Iowa, Virginia and Boston College.