USC coach Lincoln Riley is shouldering weighty expectations because of who he is and where he is, but there’s also a stark reality facing the coach taking over a once-storied program that won just four games last fall.
“We’re double digits below the NCAA scholarship limit,” Riley told ESPN last week.
A total of 37 scholarship players have left USC since Riley was hired, and the staff has replaced about two dozen of them. Some players transferred on their own, others left early for the NFL draft and the new staff chose not to bring some players back. Having roster openings isn’t entirely bad, but filling those gaps doesn’t happen overnight.
“We didn’t want to come rushing in and take a bunch of high school guys that we didn’t know, or have some kind of relationship with,” Riley said. “We were pretty picky on high school guys, we were pretty picky on transfers, as we were trying to be very selective about who comes in. It’s an advantage because we have so much flexibility right now, and I think it’s going to be pretty intriguing for a lot of guys out there.”
The first task in restoring USC to its championship tradition is restocking the roster with elite talent, and the transfer portal has helped the staff tremendously in that regard, but Riley said the second part of the equation is already in place — a staff that knows how to win on the national stage.
“We’re not a group that’s going to come in and settle for anything less than winning championships,” he said. “That’s what we’re all used to doing. That’s how we’re all wired. It fits in very well with this place and the history of this program, so regardless of the situation, [winning] championships is always the expectation, no matter if it’s Year 1 or Year 20.”
The combination of Riley and his former quarterback, Caleb Williams, has reignited a confidence in USC, but reaching the top four this fall is still a lofty goal. First, USC needs to win its own league (and Utah would like a word). Every Power 5 conference has at least one long shot playoff contender, but the Pac-12 could have two. There are also teams outside of those major conferences that could make a case this fall (sorry, Cincinnati).
Here’s a closer look at seven teams not named Alabama, Ohio State or Georgia that could make a surprise run at the College Football Playoff, grouped by conference:
Pac-12
Utah
Preseason FPI: No. 15
ESPN’s updated Way-Too-Early Top 25: No. 4
Statement game: Sept. 3 at Florida. This is a chance to impress the selection committee on the road against an SEC team — an accomplishment that could separate Utah from another Power 5 contender (or Notre Dame) if the Utes win the Pac-12 again. (That’s assuming, of course, that Florida has a respectable season under first-year coach Billy Napier). Yes, Utah can lose this game and still finish in the top four — a Pac-12 title can compensate for a tough road loss in the opener — but if it starts 0-1, the Utes will be under pressure to win out and repeat as Pac-12 champs. They’ll need the mulligan in league play, especially if Riley can raise USC quickly, and if they’re really a playoff contender, they should win this opener.
Why to take them seriously: The Utes are coming off their first Rose Bowl appearance in school history and have the pieces in place to build off of last year’s conference title. Starting quarterback Cameron Rising returns, along with running back Tavion Thomas. With USC and Oregon both under new head coaches, Utah’s Kyle Whittingham has the edge in experience, and his foundation is set, as 14 total starters from that Rose Bowl game return.
Biggest hurdle: Winning on the road. It starts in Gainesville, but Utah has six road games, including particularly difficult trips on Oct. 8 at UCLA, a Thursday night game on Oct. 27 at Washington State and Nov. 19 at Oregon. Utah’s inability to win road games last year at BYU, San Diego State and Oregon State cost the Utes a truly historic season.
USC
Preseason FPI: No. 37
ESPN’s updated Way-Too-Early Top 25: No. 12
Statement game: Oct. 15 at Utah. This game, for now, carries more weight than the regular-season finale against rival Notre Dame, because it is likely to determine the leader in the Pac-12 South race. It’s not unrealistic to think USC could be undefeated heading into that game, and it will be the most difficult opponent on the schedule until the end of November. USC ends the season at UCLA and at home against Notre Dame, two tough opponents that could mean the difference in a top-four finish — but only if the Trojans can first survive the trip to Utah.
Why to take them seriously: Riley has made excellent use of the transfer portal beyond the headline of Williams, adding 13 players so far. The offense has been upgraded with the addition of former Oregon running back Travis Dye, along with receivers Mario Williams, Brenden Rice and Terrell Bynum. Williams will have no shortage of options around him, and Riley has the experience of leading a program to the playoff before.
Biggest hurdle: Getting the full roster to where it needs to be. The transfer portal has accelerated everything, and the 2023 class “is off to a dream start,” Riley said, “but the flipside is that these things you don’t get it to where you want it maybe overnight. There is going to certainly be some process to that.” Even Riley isn’t sure how long it will take. “How fast can we turn all that over? I don’t know,” he said.
Also considered: Oregon
Big 12
Baylor
Preseason FPI: No. 19
ESPN’s updated Way-Too-Early Top 25: No. 18
Statement game: Oct. 1 vs. Oklahoma State. Baylor lost at Oklahoma State 24-14 during the regular season last year, then avenged the loss in the Big 12 championship game, beating the Cowboys 21-16. While Texas is receiving more credit in ESPN’s FPI, Oklahoma State and Baylor have positioned themselves as the teams to beat until proven otherwise. As consequential as this game is to the Big 12 race, the loser can still win the league (as evidenced by Baylor last year), but the winner is in a better position to both reach the Big 12 title game and the CFP, while the loser will be under pressure to win out.
Why to take them seriously: Coach Dave Aranda’s second season was proof the Bears are trending up: a school-record 12 wins, a Big 12 title, five wins against ranked opponents and a New Year’s Day bowl win for the first time since 1957. Baylor has four starting offensive linemen returning, a talented group of wide receivers and experience at quarterback in Gerry Bohanon and Blake Shapen.
Biggest hurdle: No time for a learning curve. There’s no guarantee Baylor will survive September, as two of the first three games are on the road (Sept. 10 at BYU and Sept. 24 at Iowa State). Baylor has to replace its top two rushers from 2021, and Taye McWilliams is next in line, but he only had 17 carries last year. Defensively, the Bears have to replace their leading tackler in Terrel Bernard and Jalen Pitre, the Big 12 Defensive Player of the Year.
Also considered: Oklahoma State
Big Ten
Michigan State
Preseason FPI: No. 16
ESPN’s updated Way-Too-Early Top 25: No. 8
Statement game: Oct. 8 vs. Ohio State. Michigan State’s 37-33 win against Michigan last fall didn’t even impress the selection committee enough to honor the head-to-head result in its weekly ranking. A win against the Buckeyes would. While coach Mel Tucker made the biggest turnaround in school history in just his second season, Michigan State won’t be taken seriously as a playoff contender — or even a threat in the Big Ten East — if it suffers another 56-7 drubbing to the Buckeyes.
Why to take them seriously: Tucker is building a culture of player accountability, and there’s still talent despite losing running back Kenneth Walker III. Wisconsin transfer Jalen Berger is one of several options who will help the Spartans fill that vacancy by committee. Redshirt senior receiver Jayden Reed is also poised for a breakout season and can help take some of the pressure off of the running backs.
Biggest hurdle: Surviving October. Michigan State has three straight games that will define its season before the selection committee even begins its weekly rankings: Oct. 8 vs. Ohio State, Oct. 15 vs. Wisconsin and Oct. 29 at Michigan. The Spartans will have a bye week to prepare for the rival Wolverines, and they’re going to need it.
Also considered: Wisconsin, Iowa
ACC
NC State
Preseason FPI: No. 26
ESPN’s updated Way-Too-Early Top 25: No. 7
Statement game: Oct. 1 at Clemson. With a nonconference lineup that includes East Carolina, Charleston Southern, Texas Tech and UConn, NC State will have to win the ACC to have a shot at the top four, and Clemson is still standing in the way. This game should reveal the leader in the Atlantic Division and how seriously to take the Wolfpack as a possible playoff contender. Even as a one-loss ACC champion, there’s no guarantee for NC State because of its strength of schedule (No. 46 per ESPN’s FPI). If the other Power 5 champions have a better résumé — and/or Notre Dame is in the mix — the ACC champion could be snubbed a second straight season.
Why to take them seriously: A total of 18 starters return (eight on offense, nine on defense and one on special teams). Quarterback Devin Leary threw for 35 touchdowns and only five interceptions last year while completing 65.7% of his passes. (He’d be getting Heisman Trophy love if he had a script “A” on his uni.) The Pack also returns 70% of its production from a defense that was one of the best in the ACC last fall. NC State held its opponents to a 29% conversion rate on third down, the best in the ACC and fifth-best in the FBS. Linebacker Drake Thomas, who led the Pack in tackles and was tied for the team lead with six sacks, also returns.
Biggest hurdle: Meeting expectations. On paper, coach Dave Doeren has everything he needs to win the ACC. He enters his 10th season as the second-winningest coach in school history and has had three nine-win seasons, more than any other coach in program history. There are doubts, though, about whether he can take the program to the top of the ACC and open the door to playoff consideration. NC State beat Clemson last year, but lost close road games to Miami and Wake Forest. If Doeren is going to push the program onto the national stage, this is the perfect season to do it.
Also considered: Pitt
SEC
Arkansas
Preseason FPI: No. 29
ESPN’s updated Way-Too-Early Top 25: No. 20
Statement game: Oct. 1 vs. Alabama. Since Arkansas has already proven it can beat Texas A&M, it’s onto the measuring stick in the SEC West, Alabama. Arkansas lost to the Tide last year 42-35, but the Razorbacks clearly played better than they did in the past five games in the series, which Alabama had won by an average of 34.4 points. Following the game, coach Sam Pittman said he told the players, “the days of getting our teeth kicked in are over.” While 2021 was somewhat of a moral victory, Arkansas will need a real W this fall to move from sleeper to contender.
Why to take them seriously: Quarterback KJ Jefferson is at his best against the best. Only two SEC quarterbacks had a higher Total QBR than Jefferson in conference play last fall, and they both played for the national title. Jefferson was responsible for 11 touchdowns against ranked SEC opponents, the second-most by any SEC player. Jefferson also led the Hogs with 664 rushing yards last year.
Biggest hurdle: The No. 13 schedule in the country. It’s not just Alabama and Texas A&M and surviving the SEC West. Arkansas opens against Cincinnati and also travels to BYU on Oct. 15 — a tough trip sandwiched between road games at Mississippi State and Auburn.
Also considered: Mississippi State
Non-Power 5 teams
BYU
Preseason FPI: No. 46
ESPN’s updated Way-Too-Early Top 25: No. 19
Statement game: Oct. 8 vs. Notre Dame in Las Vegas. This is really a coin toss, as BYU faces Baylor, travels to Oregon, hosts Arkansas and also travels to Boise State. Yikes. A win against the Irish, though, could do for BYU what it did for Cincinnati last year and impress the selection committee through November. It would also give them a head-to-head win against another potential contender, which is one of several tiebreakers used to help separate comparable teams.
Why to take them seriously: A bulk of the talent returns from last year’s 10-win season (88% of its production, according to ESPN’s Bill Connelly, second-most in the FBS). Quarterback Jaren Hall returns, and he threw for 2,583 yards and 20 touchdowns while completing 64% of his passes last year. Hall also ran for 307 yards and three scores on 62 carries, but they have to keep him healthy, as he was sidelined with an injury for three games.
Biggest hurdle: No conference championship game. As an independent, BYU will be evaluated the same way as Notre Dame and any other team that doesn’t play for its conference championship or win it. Without a conference title, the selection committee must deem the team “unequivocally” one of the four best in the country, meaning there is no doubt in the room they have earned a top-four spot over another team that did win its league. That means BYU likely has to finish the season undefeated, and if it does have a loss, it will have to be a close one and to a ranked opponent. Still, that would likely mean a New Year’s Six appearance is more realistic than a semifinal.
Also considered: Cincinnati, UCF, Houston