Baseball’s pitching landscape continues to evolve, and it now appears that the age of the massive-volume ace — think 215-plus innings — is firmly behind us.
What that means for fantasy baseball purposes is a rising need to mix-and-match your pitching staff, maximize each and every game your individual pitchers provide you, and seek value on that side of the ball, wherever you might find it. No longer can you take a “set it and forget it” approach to your pitching staff, not when we’re seeing workloads like these:
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In 2021, there were a record-low (in any full season) four pitchers to amass 200-plus innings: Sandy Alcantara, Walker Buehler, Adam Wainwright and Zack Wheeler. That was nine fewer than there were in the next-fewest season, 2018.
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A record-low 20 pitchers totaled 180 innings, 12 more than in 2018.
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A record-low 39 pitchers qualified for the ERA title, six fewer than in 1955.
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The 55 pitchers who pitched 150-plus innings tied the modern-era record, set in 1951 and matched in 1955.
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It’s only at the 140-inning threshold where records weren’t set in 2021, but even then, the 68 who did it were still the fewest to do so in 61 years.
The reason for all this is teams’ increasing desire to maximize the value of every inning they squeeze out of their pitchers — and, yes, being the first full season coming off the pandemic-shortened 2020 contributed to this. There might be some spring-back to innings totals in 2022, but “innings eaters” seem a thing of the past, as teams are increasingly yanking ineffective starting pitchers from games, especially after they’ve made two trips through the opponent’s lineup, replacing them with hard-throwing, elite-skills relievers that give them the best chance to overpower hitters. Make no mistake that this trend is as much about strategy as it is preserving arms.
We need to adapt in fantasy baseball in order to compensate, treating innings pitched as an increasingly strong measure of pitching success — they literally equal outs, after all, the most important duty of a pitcher — but more importantly, to value the contributions each of our pitchers provides us with the innings they deliver. As the game continues to evolve this way, fantasy teams are going to increasingly turn over staffs, stream starters, plug in helpful relievers and do lineup “homework,” and it’s critical you keep up with what is sure to be that trend in our own game.
So how does a fantasy manager do that? Simple: Lean on the aces, who provide you the greatest amount of punch for your dollar, but perhaps more importantly, surround said aces with a staff of strong-skilled, “big bang for the buck” pitchers on the back end. I’d argue that finding value on the pitching side is more important than ever.
Ah, that’s where this column, an annual staple of mine, comes in. One of the best ways to unearth draft-day value on the pitching side, not to mention formulate a list of helpful in-season additions, is to review the past season’s statistics for pitchers whose traditional rotisserie statistics were lackluster, falling out of line with their true ability. Wins, saves and ERA were once heavily relied-upon measures of success, but as we get deeper into the 21st century, we recognize that the true indicators are a pitcher’s ability to miss bats, throw strikes and command the strike zone. With those skills, a pitcher’s roto stats should fall in line over time, even if they didn’t in 2021 alone.
These are my annual “Kings of Command,” pitchers who met an exclusive set of minimum statistical baselines demonstrating excellence at these skills.
Kings of Command baseline numbers
Pitchers who qualify for inclusion exceeded the major-league averages in all of the following categories during the 2021 major league season, with said averages listed below. Starting pitchers must have faced at least 200 batters, and relief pitchers must have faced at least 100 batters, while serving in that specific role.
Starting pitchers
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.0% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 60.5% or more
Command rate (K’s per walk or K/BB): 2.77 or more
Relief pitchers
Swinging-strike rate (SwStrk%): 12.7% or more
First-pitch strike rate (1stPStrk%): 59.2% of more
Command rate (K’s per walk or K/BB): 2.35 or more
Put-away rate (Strikeouts per 2-strike count): 20.5% or more
Using these thresholds, only 96 pitchers (43 starters and 53 relievers) met all of these criteria in either role. Among them were the National League’s Cy Young Award winner, Corbin Burnes, seven of the top eight starting pitchers on our ESPN Player Rater (and 12 of the top 18 in terms of fantasy points scored), and each of the top three relievers using either scoring method.
The nine pitchers below, however, also qualified, despite none receiving anywhere near the same level of attention. In terms of raw skills, they all compared favorably to the headline-makers, which means that each might be one small tweak, an expanded role, or simply better luck away from a fantasy breakthrough in 2022.
My annual “Kings of Command” are listed in alphabetical order, along with their 2021 Player Rater finishes and fantasy point totals using ESPN’s standard scoring.
JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates
2021 Player Rater: SP134/511th overall
2021 fantasy point total: 153 (SP126)
Why he’s on here: Brubaker got off to a strong start last season, posting six quality starts, a 3.82 ERA and 4.41 K/BB ratio in 14 starts through the end of June before gopher-itis, followed by a series of injuries, got the best of him. Despite the rough second half, the right-hander managed well-above-average full season rates of 13.0% swinging strikes, 3.39 K/BB and 7.1% walks, and he brings a ferocious slider, as his 24.5% swinging-strike rate with that particular pitch was fourth-highest among pitchers who threw at least 500 of them. Brubaker’s pitching-friendly home, PNC Park, greatly enhances his matchups potential at the bare minimum.
How he could improve: Staying healthy, since in addition to the thumb and shoulder injuries that spoiled his 2021 second half, Brubaker missed most of 2019 with a forearm issue. The home runs are another area for improvement, as 4.6% of the hitters he has faced in his two big-league seasons have taken him deep, the fifth-highest rate among any pitcher with at least as many as his 171 2/3 innings.
Logan Gilbert, Seattle Mariners
2021 Player Rater: SP90/319th overall
2021 fantasy point total: 227 (SP82)
Why he’s on here: At a casual glance, Gilbert’s first taste of the big leagues was nothing special, evidenced by his above-listed fantasy finishes and his 4.68 ERA. Look beneath the hood, though, and all of the right-hander’s underlying skills indicators were right in line with his brilliant minor-league numbers, his 4.57 K/BB from his May 13 debut forward being the majors’ 15th-best among the 87 pitchers with at least 100 innings during that time period. Most notably, Gilbert’s four-seam fastball was excellent, Statcast grading it as being worth minus-19 runs above average, the fifth-best rate among four-seam fastballs in the league for the full season.
How he could improve: Polishing his secondary pitches, as his slider and changeup were responsible for 10-of-17 home runs he served up, though that’s something that should come with experience. It would also help if Gilbert could bring down either or both of his 32.8% fly-ball or 44.6% hard-contact rates, since those in combination could prove disastrous in said home run department.
Andrew Heaney, Los Angeles Dodgers
2021 Player Rater: SP129/479th overall
2021 fantasy point total: 195 (SP96)
Why he’s on here: In signing him to a one-year, $8.5 million deal in November (the first major move by any team of the offseason), the Dodgers saw in Heaney what sleeper-seeking fantasy managers have. He has borderline-elite swing and miss stuff, his 14.3% swinging-strike rate over the last three seasons combined ranking 12th-best among 79 pitchers who made at least 50 starts, getting there with a high-spin, 13.4% swinging-strike fastball and 15.7% swinging-strike curveball. There’s a reason people immediately threw out the “2022’s Robbie Ray” comps at the time of the signing, although I pointed out that there are critical differences that discourage the comparison.
How he could improve: Heaney needs to rein in the home runs, having served one up to 4.7% of the hitters he faced from 2019-21, fifth-most among pitchers with 50-plus starts — although that’s hardly an easy thing to do. Perhaps more likely, the Dodgers could work with him on pitching out of the stretch, as his .289/.336/.515 rates in those situations over the last three seasons are a huge part of the problem.
Aaron Nola, Philadelphia Phillies
2021 Player Rater: SP40/149th overall
2021 fantasy point total: 375 (SP29)
Why he’s on here: The “one of these names is not like the others” entry, Nola has a top-five fantasy starter (2018) and three top-20 fantasy starter seasons (2018-20) on his résumé, but 2021 was a rough one for him from a traditional rotisserie standpoint. He had the second-worst ERA (4.63) and innings-per-start average (5.7) and surrendered 1.30 HR/9, his worst career rate, yet set personal bests with his 5.2% walk and 5.72 K/BB rates. Nola’s inclusion on the list is a reminder that even some of the game’s most talented are subject to bad-fortune stat lines, and if he’s slipping even halfway to that SP40 positional finish in your draft, he’s a flat-out steal considering his still-excellent raw skills.
How he could improve: Can baseball decide to adopt the universal designated defensive replacement? The Phillies’ complete lack of regard for defense this offseason could prove somewhat problematic with correcting what ailed Nola’s numbers in 2021, but his 66.8% strand rate should improve and it’s highly unlikely he’ll post an ERA more than a run and a quarter higher than his xERA, FIP, xFIP and SIERA again. One thing he could work on, though, is lowering the career-high (by far) 27.0% fly-ball rate he allowed. Better location with his fastball would help with that, as Statcast had it with a .522 expected slugging percentage, his worst with any pitch since 2015.
Bailey Ober, Minnesota Twins
2021 Player Rater: SP112/414th overall
2021 fantasy point total: 176 (SP109)
Why he’s on here: Though never remotely considered a top prospect, Ober reached Minnesota for good last June on the strength of four strong Triple-A starts (2.81 ERA), a sneaky-elite changeup, and some of the best control in the Twins’ minor-league system. Though he posted a forgettable 4.19 ERA, completed six innings only twice and even reached the sixth just five times in 20 big-league starts, Ober maintained his pinpoint control and the excellence of said changeup, his walk rate 5.0% and his changeup generating a 30.8% called-strike rate, ninth-highest among pitchers who threw at least as many of them as he did. Though he’s far from a high-ceiling pitcher, his control and diverse array of pitches give him a legitimate chance at a 2022 breakthrough.
How he could improve: As with Nola, and many pitchers who make this list, Ober needs to cut down on the fly balls, as he served them up 34.2% of the time as a rookie. While generally a fly-baller, that’s still a good amount higher than he typically allowed in the minors. Ober also needs his changeup (generally his best pitch) to perform more like it did over his final 10 starts (a 14.4% swinging-strike rate, no walks and a .188 BAA) than in his first 10 outings (7.8% swinging strikes, 6.3% walks, .333 BAA).
Chris Paddack, San Diego Padres
2021 Player Rater: SP116/439th overall
2021 fantasy point total: 165 (SP118)
Why he’s on here: After a sensational first four months of his big-league career, during which he posted seven wins, seven quality starts and a 2.78 ERA in 18 starts to begin 2019, Paddack has seen his fantasy production slip, with only 13 wins, 15 quality starts and a 4.90 ERA in 42 starts and one relief appearance since. Nevertheless, his underlying metrics have not strayed all that far off his early success and his swinging-strike rate (12.7%, up from 12.2%) and average fastball velocity (94.4 mph, up from 93.9) actually improved during his period of struggle. If not for the UCL sprain that prematurely ended his 2021, Paddack might have attracted more attention in fantasy drafts, but at least recent indications are that he’s healthy now.
How he could improve: Other than remaining healthy, Paddack’s continued development of the curveball he threw a career-high 12.3% of the time and got a .163 BAA from (backed by a .205 Statcast expected batting average) and 19-of-99 K’s is key to his recapturing the future-ace potential many saw in him three years ago. He could also stand to improve his 63.6% first-pitch strike rate to closer to the 69.8% rate he had in 2019-20, not to mention pitch better with runners on base, his 60.7% strand rate of 2021 checking in at well beneath his 76.4% rate over 2019-20 combined.
Eduardo Rodriguez, Detroit Tigers
2021 Player Rater: SP73/264th overall
2021 fantasy point total: 298 (SP49)
Why he’s on here: Perhaps no pitcher did more to improve his skill set last season, with said improvements falling entirely beneath the radar, than Rodriguez. He has boosted his swinging-strike rate in each of his last five seasons (putting aside his 2020 lost to myocarditis and comparing his 2021 to 2019 in that pattern), posted the lowest walk rate of his career in 2021 (7.0%), and had the majors’ widest differential between his actual wOBA allowed (.330) and his Statcast expected wOBA allowed (.288). Rodriguez then signed a big free-agent contract with the Tigers, where he’ll face mostly AL Central competition, that division having averaged 4.48 runs per game (compared to the AL East’s 4.82) last year.
How he could improve: Better luck, as evidenced by the aforementioned wOBA numbers, as well as Rodriguez’s 1.27 ERA/xERA split (4.74 ERA, 3.47 Statcast xERA) that was also the second-widest in that direction among ERA qualifiers. Greater volume would also help, considering his injury history, though he’s now two years removed from the heart issue and did have a 203 1/3 inning season as recently as 2019.
Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers
2021 Player Rater: SP69/255th overall
2021 fantasy point total: 260 (SP68)
Why he’s on here: Though not considered quite the caliber prospect that Casey Mize or Matt Manning was at the time of his 2020 big-league debut, Skubal has now played three effective “half-seasons” at this level, and made tremendous strides in each of them. xFIP best encapsulates this, as Skubal’s was 4.81 in 2020, 4.37 during the first half and 3.61 the second half of 2021, much of that thanks to his dramatic improvements in terms of walk and ground-ball rates. He’s now a trendy sleeper, after posting a 3.89 ERA and 1.11 WHIP in 10 starts over the final two months of last season, but with the improving skill-related metrics to support his candidacy.
How he could improve: There are several paths, which is why he’s a trendy pick. He can maintain his control gains, as he had a 3.7% second-half walk rate. He can continue to improve against right-handed hitters, who batted .237 with a 28.3% strikeout rate against him in that 10-game, season-ending split, but still slugged .481 over that time. Perhaps most importantly, though, Skubal’s fastball needs to show the promise it did in the minors, as it has been consistently 94.3 mph in the majors, but surrendered a .291 batting average (and .306 xBA) and 22 home runs last season.
Tyler Wells, Baltimore Orioles
2021 Player Rater: RP81/336th overall
2021 fantasy point total: 147 (RP92)
Why he’s on here: I’d say he’s the lone “closer” on this year’s list, except that the Orioles have decided to experiment with stretching him out for a rotation audition this spring. Wells would have more immediate fantasy value as the team’s closer — the role he almost assuredly would be ticketed for with a strong preseason — but in his first season back from May 2019 Tommy John surgery, he showed sneaky-good command numbers that could play in any role. His 5.42 K/BB ratio was 17th-best among the 338 pitchers who amassed at least 50 innings for the season, and he walked only 4-of-133 batters total after Memorial Day.
How he could improve: Wells has long been an extreme fly baller, but his 39.7% rate, fourth-highest among pitchers who faced at least as many as the 224 hitters that he did, was ridiculously high even for him. Bringing that down even slightly would help, but he’d also benefit from improving with runners on base, à la Heaney, having surrendered .288/.322/.563 rates in those situations in 2021.
Kings of Command master list of qualifiers
Listed below, with starting pitchers on the left and relief pitchers on the right in ascending order of their 2021 Statcast expected ERA (xERA), are all 96 pitchers who met all of the Kings of Command criteria.