The trade: The Blue Jays acquire 3B Matt Chapman from the Athletics for SS Kevin Smith, RHP Gunnar Hoglund, LHP Zach Logue and LHP Kirby Snead
The last the time the Blue Jays acquired a third baseman from the A’s, it worked out pretty well: Josh Donaldson came over in 2015 and won the American League MVP Award as Toronto reached the ALCS.
With the offseason additions of Chapman, Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi, plus full seasons from Jose Berrios and Alek Manoah to offset the losses of Robbie Ray and Marcus Semien, the Blue Jays may now enter as the favorites in an absolutely loaded AL East.
Whether they win the division may rest on which version of Chapman they get at the plate:
2018 to July 22, 2019: .279/.359/.525, 21.8% SO rate
July 23, 2019, to 2021: .194/.306/.431, 27.0% SO rate
Chapman brings his Gold Glove defense regardless and is under team control for two seasons, but in 2018 and 2019 he finished in the top 10 of the MVP voting after earning 7.6 and 7.7 WAR. In 2021, after hitting .210/.314/.403 with 202 strikeouts, his WAR fell to 3.5, so there is a four-win swing in potential outcomes in Chapman’s value, which could be the difference between winning the AL East or not (hopefully not the difference between making the playoffs or not after the Jays fell one victory short in 2021).
My colleague Bradford Doolittle’s projection system does, indeed, forecast the Blue Jays as the best in the East with 98 wins — three more than the New York Yankees.
Chapman’s 2020 season ended early after hip surgery, so it’s certainly possible that still affected him at the plate in 2021. He has excellent plate discipline, so his biggest problem with his strikeout numbers was catching up to fastballs. His numbers against four-seam fastballs through the years:
2018: .255 AVG, .490 SLG, 28.1% swing-and-miss rate
2019: .229 AVG, .440 SLG, 26.7% swing-and-miss rate
2020: .292 AVG, .833 SLG, 37.6% swing-and-miss rate
2021: .208 AVG, .486 SLG, 36.7% swing-and-miss rate
He kept slugging fastballs but had obvious issues with contact — and if you’re not hitting the fastball, you’re more vulnerable to breaking balls, and Chapman hit .189 against sliders and .137 against curveballs in 2021. Still, with his power, walks and defense, he brings a high floor and stability to a position in which the Jays started six different players last season.
If you want to nitpick, it’s that Chapman is another right-handed batter in a lineup that is already almost entirely right-handed. The Blue Jays hit with the platoon advantage at the lowest rate in the majors in 2021, so you can see why the Jays were in on Freddie Freeman and Kyle Schwarber to bring in a lefty hitter. Maybe that’s overrated — their platoon splits were pretty even overall, with an .805 OPS versus lefties and .793 versus righties — but lineup balance always seems like an important thing in October.
Still, this appears to be as good a lineup as any in the AL after the Jays scored 846 runs, third most in the AL in 2021:
CF George Springer
SS Bo Bichette
1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
RF Teoscar Hernandez
LF Lourdes Gurriel Jr.
3B Matt Chapman
2B Cavan Biggio/Santiago Espinal
DH Randal Grichuk
C Danny Jansen
Of course, Freeman still remains unsigned as of this writing …
Blue Jays grade: A-
When the A’s traded Donaldson, they also went for quantity: Franklin Barreto, Kendall Graveman, Brett Lawrie and Sean Nolin. Barreto was the prize prospect, while the other three were already in the majors. Needless to say, that deal didn’t work out and probably goes down as one of the worst of Billy Beane’s career. This time he gets a recent first-round pick in Hoglund — and three players who are major league ready.
Hoglund was the 19th overall pick out of Mississippi State in 2021 after striking out 96 batters in 62.2 innings. He might have been a top-10 selection before Tommy John surgery ended his season in May. Before the injury, he was sitting in the low 90s and touching 96, with a plus slider and plus changeup along with good control (2.4 walks per nine). There was obvious frontline starter potential with his stuff and command, but we won’t see him make his first pro pitches until the summer.
Smith is the most intriguing of the other three after hitting .285/.370/.561 at Triple-A (although going 3-for-32 in a brief major league stint). Smith tinkered with his swing after hitting .209 in Double-A in 2019, and while he’s never going to be a high-average hitter, his improved approach and potential for 20 home runs should make him a viable regular. That could be at shortstop — please, let’s hope it’s not Elvis Andrus again — or maybe the A’s go with slick-fielding Nick Allen and play Smith at third. Either way, he’ll get a chance to start somewhere in 2022. He’ll be 25, so he’s too old to be considered a top prospect, but he’s the type of player the A’s have had success with in the past (think Mark Canha, who didn’t debut until his age-26 season).
Logue had a 3.67 ERA between Double-A and Triple-A with solid all-around numbers: 125 IP, 112 H, 27 BB, 144 SO. As with Joey Estes, acquired in the Matt Olson trade, Logue isn’t viewed as a top prospect, but the numbers suggest he has a chance to be a starter. The concern is that while he was very effective against lefties (.606 OPS), righties slugged .421 against him, with 14 of the 15 home runs he allowed. He could end up in the bullpen alongside Snead, who made seven major league appearances after limiting batters to a .151 average in Triple-A.
It’s hard not to go back to the Donaldson trade because the return is so similar. That time, Beane was counting on a shortstop who hadn’t played above short-season ball. This time, he’s counting on a pitcher coming off Tommy John surgery. Chapman’s rough season at the plate in 2021 certainly affected his value, but this feels a little light, especially when compared to what the A’s got back in the Olson deal.