The trade: The Mariners acquire LF Jesse Winker and 3B Eugenio Suarez from the Reds for LHP Brandon Williamson, RHP Justin Dunn and OF Jake Fraley
Mariners fans have been sweating it out the past few days, imploring Jerry Dipoto to do something as free agents sign and other teams wheel and deal. You know Trader Jerry had something up his sleeve, however, and he didn’t disappoint with this five-player swap. The Mariners needed offense in a big way after hitting .226/.303/.385 a year ago and finishing 11th in the American League in runs — and even that total was boosted by an unrepeatable performance with runners in scoring position. (The Mariners scored 697 runs but created an estimated 655.)
Winker, who has two years of team control remaining, should definitely help here as a high-OBP hitter coming off his best season (.305/.394/.556). But it’s not clear if Suarez brings much value despite his power (31 home runs in 2021 and 49 in 2019 but a .199/.293/.440 line over the past two seasons). Indeed, it appears the price for obtaining Winker included taking on the remaining years of Suarez’s contract — three years and $35 million. Not too egregious, but that’s a sunk cost if Suarez repeats his 2020 value (minus-0.7 WAR).
Winker has always been a patient hitter, with a .385 career OBP, but he added power the past two seasons in part by becoming more aggressive early in the count. Prior to 2020, he swung at the first pitch about 23% of the time, but that jumped to 30% in 2020 and then to 34% in 2021. How desperate are the Mariners for somebody who can get on base like Winker does? Since 2010, they’ve had just one player bat 400 times with a .380 OBP (Robinson Cano in 2014). He doesn’t run well, so he might not be an ideal leadoff hitter, but he could fit nicely in the No. 2 hole.
Winker comes with a few flaws:
1. He doesn’t hit lefties (.600 career OPS).
2. He is a lousy left fielder, so his best fit is DH. (An outfield with Winker in left and Jarred Kelenic in center is a scary idea.)
3. He has been injury-prone, sitting out the final month and a half last season with an intercostal strain and missing time in 2018 and 2019 with a shoulder injury and then a neck strain. His career high in games is 113.
Suarez ranked second to Mike Trout with 83 home runs over the 2018 and 2019 seasons while batting .277, but he has struggled to do much the past two seasons except pop an occasional home run. He is a classic example of the modern player who has taken the Three True Outcomes approach to a negative extreme with an all-or-nothing, pull-heavy approach that yields too many strikeouts and harmless fly balls. He is only 30 yeas old, so there’s a chance to get him back to an All-Star level, but he also could end up being nothing more than a platoon player at third base with Abraham Toro. Suarez also is a below-average third baseman. If he is the player who averaged 3.9 WAR from 2017 to 2019, it’s a nice addition; but the 2021 version of Suarez is of little help.
The Mariners had to make a trade like this — especially since Dipoto told reporters after the trade that the Mariners were heavy in the free-agent market but hitting some dead ends. At some point, you have to make a move. Unfortunately, Dipoto also said, “The likelihood is, that’s our offensive team. You’re looking at it.” It’s still not a playoff-caliber offense — unless Suarez hits and Julio Rodriguez comes up and rakes. They have money in the budget, but that will go to adding another starting pitcher.
Mariners grade: B-
As for the Reds, call it what you will: A rebuild, a tank job. The previous rebuild is over after lasting just two seasons as a fringe playoff contender. With Winker, Suarez and Sonny Gray gone, don’t be surprised if Luis Castillo and Tyler Mahle are next — and they’ll pray some team takes on at least part of Mike Moustakas‘ contract.
Williamson didn’t crack Kiley McDaniel’s top 100 prospects, but did make some other top-100 lists. A second-round pick out of TCU in 2019, Williamson reached Double-A in his first full professional season, posting a 3.39 ERA while striking out 153 batters in 98.1 innings. He’s a 6-foot-6 lefty who seems to be on the rise from his college days, sitting 90 to 94, but reaching up for 97. His curveball is his best secondary pitch and his control is already a grade higher from his draft season. He has a starter’s build and will need to show he can handle that workload, but he projects as a potential mid-rotation starter. With Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo, Williamson and Chase Petty (the Twins’ first-round pick in 2021 acquired in the Gray deal), the Reds have one of the deepest groups of high-end minor league starters of any team — with Castillo and Mahle, for now, still around.
Fraley is a fourth outfielder type who will probably get a lot of time in left field in 2022. Dunn has good stuff but lacks the control to start (6.0 walks per nine in 102 career major league innings). The Reds should give him another opportunity to start, but the odds are he eventually ends up as a reliever. There is also a player to be named in the deal.
Williamson is one of my favorite starting pitching prospects in the minors and I think it’s a pretty solid return for two years of a DH who has topped out at 2.7 WAR in his best season. Obviously, lots of luck with pitching prospects, and going through another rebuild so soon for the Reds is embarrassing and certainly frustrating for Reds fans. The good news is Greene, Lodolo and Williamson are all close to the majors, so hopefully this rebuild will be a lot more rapid than the last one.