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Doug KezirianESPN
The very name of the Most Valuable Player award allows for the sports betting market to offer numerical context. Both oddsmakers and pro bettors constantly update their own set of power ratings and adjust for each player’s availability. This type of exercise is never as simple as we want, given the betting market is extremely nuanced. Key numbers carry more weight, and the NBA season always involves injuries and load management. However, I asked an oddsmaker and avid bettor to assume each player’s supporting cast at full strength and to operate in a vacuum as much as possible.
Nikola Jokic, Denver Nuggets (7 points)
Caesars MVP odds: +260
That means if the Denver Nuggets hosted the Houston Rockets with Jokic, they would be favored by 8.5 points. If he sat out and everyone else remained in the lineup, Denver would be favored by 1.5 points.
“When he is on the floor, per 100 possessions, Denver is outscoring opponents by 10.5 points. It’s an elite net rating. When he’s not on the floor, they get outscored by 14.6 points,” VSiN Senior NBA Analyst Jonathan Von Tobel told ESPN. “He is the difference between the Nuggets being the Suns or the Pistons. Among the MVP candidates, he leads the pack by far.”
The reigning MVP has comparable numbers to last season, albeit with a weaker supporting cast, given Michael Porter Jr.’s injury. Jokic leads the NBA in player efficiency rating (PER) and is the only player currently leading his team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks.
“It’s just incredible what this guy does and what he means to the team,” Las Vegas SuperBook head NBA oddsmaker Jeff Sherman told ESPN.
Joel Embiid, Philadelphia 76ers (6.5 points*)
*Prior to Philly’s trade for James Harden and about 4 points after the trade. Supporting cast is a big part of point spread value.
Caesars MVP odds: +140
“The hard part is factoring what Harden is. He had a hamstring injury. He has not looked like the same guy as last season, but he’s still Harden,” Von Tobel said. In January, Embiid was a 50-1 long shot to win the MVP but is now the betting favorite, leading the NBA in scoring and ranking second in PER. However, the addition of Harden could inhibit Embiid’s numbers down the stretch.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors (4.5 points)
Caesars MVP odds: 14-1
“If you looked at earlier in the season, I would have had Curry about seven to eight points. He was carrying a subpar team to a real high power rating. It was crazy. Now he’s getting some help back and you see some of his production come down,” Sherman said. “At one point, he was even money to win the MVP.”
The two-time MVP ranks 20th in PER but leads the league in made 3-pointers, and the mere threat of his outside shooting puts extreme pressure on opposing defenses and indirectly creates opportunities for teammates in the form of “hockey assists.”
“[Curry’s] impact is offensively. When he leaves the floor, the offensive rating tanks — 114.8 to 105.8,” Von Tobel said. “They’re still a really good defensive team without him.”
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks (4 points)
Caesars MVP odds: 4-1
“It feels like he’s just less than I’ve seen in previous years,” Sherman said of the former two-time MVP’s value to the point spread. What “hurts” him is that he plays alongside two All-Stars and a capable supporting cast, which is why the point spread adjusts only four points in his absence. Antetokounmpo still ranks second in points per game, second in PER and seventh in rebounds per game.
Ja Morant, Memphis Grizzlies (3 points)
Caesars MVP odds: 18-1
“I love this guy and it feels like he should be worth more, but his absence doesn’t have the same impact on his team that those others players do. And it’s not like he has a supporting cast of two or three superstars,” Sherman said of the All-Star starter.
The Grizzlies are 12-2 without Morant in the lineup and 29-18 when he plays. He currently sits ninth in PER.
DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls (2.5 points)
Caesars MVP odds: 14-1
His candidacy has become a major discussion topic in NBA circles. Often dismissed as a replaceable player, DeRozan is thriving in his first season in Chicago, averaging a career-high 28.3 points and ranking seventh in PER.
“From an advanced analytics standpoint, you can make the case that he’s not that valuable if you heavily weigh VORP and win shares,” Von Tobel said. “But if you look at on-court numbers, he improves them a lot. Among the MVP candidates, outside of the injured Chris Paul, he is the best clutch performer.”
Strengthening DeRozan’s résumé is that the Bulls currently have the No. 1 seed in the East. Since the playoff expansion in 1984, 29 of the 38 MVPs have been awarded to a player from the 1-seed. Eight of the other nine award winners have played on a 2- or 3-seed. So if the Sixers and Nuggets don’t climb the standings, it might be hard to buck this trend.