Why last year’s Final Four teams could reach New Orleans … and why all four might fall short

Ace researcher Jared Berson of ESPN’s Stats and Information group dropped a stat on Twitter last week that caught the eye of many around college basketball: it’s the first time ever that each of the previous season’s Final Four teams won at least 15 of their first 17 games the following season.

Defending national champion Baylor won its first 15 games of the season and now sits at 19-3 after coming back to beat West Virginia on Monday. National runner-up Gonzaga lost two of three games in late November and early December but has since won 10 in a row to improve to 17-2.

The two teams that lost in the national semifinals have been equally impressive. Houston has dealt with injuries and a couple of early nonconference losses, but the Cougars were 18-2 entering Wednesday night and riding a 10-game winning streak. UCLA is 16-2 and has rebounded nicely from a COVID-19 pause that lasted nearly a month.

Last year’s Final Four teams are:

18-2 (Baylor)
17-2 (Houston)
16-2 (Gonzaga)
15-2 (UCLA)

It’s the first time EVER that each Final Four team won at least 15 of their first 17 games the next season.

— Jared Berson (@JaredBerson) January 28, 2022

The biggest surprise of the group is Houston, which opened the season ranked No. 15 in the country and has now positioned itself for a potential top-two seed in March. The other three teams started the season in the top 10, with Gonzaga (No. 1) and UCLA (No. 2) atop the rankings and Baylor slotting in at No. 8.

While the quartet makes up exactly half of the top eight in this week’s AP poll, which teams have the best chance of making a repeat Final Four run? We asked opposing coaches.

What’s the same?

While the personnel in the starting lineup is dramatically different from last season — and we’ll get to that in a minute — the system is similar to the past couple of seasons. The Bears still excel on the offensive glass, ranking inside the top 10 in offensive rebounding percentage for the ninth straight season, and they’re once again efficient inside and outside the arc. Defensively, they’re still aggressive on the ball in the half court, forcing turnovers and contesting on the perimeter.

“They run the same stuff, just with different players,” one Big 12 coach said. “[James] Akinjo, in particular. The ball is going to be in his hands in a late-clock situation. He’s able to make plays off the dribble. Last year, [Jared] Butler could take you off the dribble. [MaCio] Teague had a little bit of wiggle. Davion Mitchell, we all know what he was. At any one time, you had multiple guys who could take guys off the dribble. It’s not quite like that this year.”

Two key holdovers from last season, Adam Flagler and Matthew Mayer, are adjusting to new roles. Flagler and Mayer came off the bench last season, with one coach last season telling ESPN they were the ultimate separators: if they played well, especially Mayer, Baylor was impossible to beat. Now, Scott Drew needs them to produce.

“There’s a greater significance on being a mainstay, not just being an extra guy,” one coach in the league said. “It’s just getting comfortable in that role. It’s like when you have a cohesive unit and someone gets hurt. The balance of responsibility has to shift.”

One newcomer who could help replicate last season’s success defensively is freshman Jeremy Sochan, who returned three games ago after missing four games due to injury.

“Everyone’s telling me at the NBA level, Sochan might be draftable this year — and might be the most versatile guy in the draft if he goes out,” a Big 12 coach said. “He’s the one guy — he can handle the ball, he can shoot it a little bit. He understands how to make plays, he understands the positioning of the defense. The tough things, like boxing out, diving on the ball for loose balls, being able to talk on switches. You add him, along with Kendall Brown and [Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua], now you’ve got something. Build an impenetrable wall around that paint. Last year, you couldn’t get into the paint. This year could get into the paint. That’s what Sochan brings. The defense becomes elite.”

What’s different?

The most obvious difference from last season is the personnel and experience. Butler and Mitchell were juniors, Teague and Mark Vital were seniors. They had been in the system for a few years and knew exactly what Drew demanded defensively — and how to operate as a unit at that end of the floor.

“They had a tremendous amount of trust together defensively,” a Big 12 coach said. “When you get beyond the Sweet 16, you have to have a tremendous amount of trust. Everyone has good offensive players. Midyear, as we look at how things are evolving with Baylor, they’re not quite as cohesive. They’re not very far from what they were, but they’re not there yet. Kendall Brown is a freshman, Sochan was hurt. Akinjo, I’m not sure that was part of his makeup at Georgetown and Arizona. LJ Cryer didn’t play a lot last season. Flagler has a much more significant role. It’s a transition.”

Given the talent level and versatility of the perimeter group, the potential to become the switchable, half-court machine Baylor was last season is there — it just hasn’t emerged yet.

“Look at our league, look at the 3s and 4s. They’re all pretty athletic and pretty experienced,” a coach said. “Vital seemed like he was there for five or six years. He understood that. On a switch, you’ve got Mark Vital there. When you know he’s there, you feel a little bit better, you play a little bit quicker, you operate with a little more trust. I think that’s the key.”

“They’re just young,” one coach added. “It’s not a lack of talent. Kendall is taller, more athletic and longer than Vital. Vital was more mature, he was physically stronger, he understood the system better. That’s all it is.”

Can they get back to the Final Four?

The biggest key is going to be health. Baylor missed Sochan for four games last month, while Akinjo hasn’t quite been the same player since injuring his tailbone against Texas Tech in the team’s first loss of the season. Cryer has missed two games in a row and Flagler was out for Monday’s game against West Virginia.

For a team trying to build cohesiveness, that’s hurt its development.

“Any time you get hurt, there’s going to be a drop-off. And now you get into the bulk of the season — there’s no bye weeks in the Big 12 — every week you’re playing two or three games,” an opposing coach said. “There’s not enough time to prepare. That’s creating a little bit of an issue. The scoring from certain positions is not as evenly distributed. All of that comes into play. You would hope that if the scoring isn’t what it once was, the defense is still there. But there’s injuries and guys in new roles.”

A fully healthy Baylor after six more weeks of locking in defensively and getting back to playing efficient basketball on the offensive end, though? Absolutely a team with Final Four potential.

“I still think they’re really good,” a coach said. “The Big 12 is better this year than it was last year. So the gap has closed. For them, it’s just getting fully healthy, which they can. Defensively, how they can get better. Rebounding, guarding the ball. More of a commitment to that. Which they can do, and they’ll be able to do. They’ll be fine.”

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What’s the same?

Another team with drastically different personnel from last season, Gonzaga and the Mark Few machine has continued to steamroll the competition in Spokane. The Bulldogs rank No. 2 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency after ranking No. 1 the past three seasons, they’re elite in the paint and have improved from the perimeter. And after ranking No. 7 nationally last season in tempo, they’re No. 3 this season despite playing slightly slower overall.

“They still play incredibly fast, that’s been a staple for the entire Few era or at least the last 12-15 years,” one WCC coach said. “They fly the ball up the court. That hasn’t changed whether it’s [Jalen] Suggs, [Joel] Ayayi, [Andrew] Nembhard, Rasir Bolton. Doesn’t matter who is bringing the ball up. You can’t throw any bulls— at the rim, that jump-starts their run.”

Drew Timme‘s numbers have dipped the slightest bit since last season, but the preseason Wooden Award favorite is still outrageously productive and efficient. He’s averaging 18.1 points and 5.9 rebounds, while making 62.1% of his field goal attempts. There was a stretch early in WCC play where he made 20 consecutive 2-pointers and averaged 31.0 points over two games while missing five shots total.

“He’s awesome,” a coach said. “He’s expanded his game. He’s way more comfortable on the perimeter, he’s bringing it up a lot more than in the past. He’s got a Eurostep. He’s gotten significantly better.”

The team’s offense still operates at an incredibly high level, mostly because of Timme on the interior and Nembhard at the point guard spot. Nembhard has taken on a bigger role after being the team’s fourth or fifth option last season, and there have been games where he’s looked like the best point guard in the country. He’s also playing his best basketball right now, averaging 15.8 points and 6.6 assists while shooting 46.2% from 3 over his past five games.

With Nembhard running the show and shooters like Bolton, Julian Strawther and Chet Holmgren surrounding him — and five-star recruits Nolan Hickman and Hunter Sallis coming off the bench — the offense might have more balance than last season. Even if it’s not quite as efficient.

“Strawther is solid, Bolton is solid. Nembhard’s terrific. Maybe Strawther and Bolton don’t pop like Ayayi and Suggs,” one coach said. “But it’s all relative. They’re still a top-two offense in the country, they’re just maybe not historically great.”

What’s different?

Put simply, Chet Holmgren is different.

Going into the season, it was expected that Holmgren — the No. 1 recruit in the country and the projected No. 1 pick in the NBA draft entering the campaign — would be a unique prospect. But he’s completely changed how Gonzaga defends opponents and how opponents defend Gonzaga. Holmgren is one of the elite shot-blockers in college basketball at 3.3 per game, but the 7-foot-1 freshman is also shooting 45.6% from 3 and grabbing 8.7 rebounds.

“You used to be able to dare Gonzaga to make 3s. Play slow, make them shoot 3s. And whichever big was not by the rim, you didn’t have to guard him. That’s tougher this year because Chet can shoot,” one coach said. “They’re just a different team because they have an elite rim-protecting 5. Chet and Timme are interchangeable [offensively]. In years past, that wasn’t the case. It was Timme and [Filip] Petrusev or Petrusev and [Killian] Tillie.”

While Gonzaga scored more points in the paint last season, this year’s version of the Zags is simply more reliant on their bigs than in the past. The offense operates far more efficiently when Timme has space to make plays inside and Holmgren is stretching the defense from the perimeter.

“They’re more Chet-reliant, they’re more reliant on their bigs,” an opposing coach said. “More is asked of Nembhard. If it’s not in the frontcourt’s hands, it’s in Nembhard’s hands. If he goes 3-for-9 in a certain game, a close game, I’m not sure they have the Suggs and Ayayi and [Corey] Kispert firepower, the [Zach] Norvell and [Josh] Perkins firepower, to overcome that. Chet is the best prospect they’ve ever had. Is he better at winning college games than Corey Kispert? We won’t know until March.”

“I say they’re not quite as good, but they’re just different,” a WCC coach added. “Up until Kispert got cold last season, he was a 55-45-95 [field goal/3-point/free throw percentage] guy. He didn’t miss a shot all season until mid-February. That’s the biggest difference. It’s Ayayi-Suggs-Kispert vs. Chet-Bolton-Strawther. It’s different but I take Ayayi-Suggs-Kispert.”

Can they get back to the Final Four?

Given Gonzaga’s comprehensive wins over Texas, UCLA and Texas Tech earlier this season, the Zags have shown they have the ability to make their third Final Four in the past six years. And they also look poised to receive a 1-seed in the NCAA tournament for the third straight Selection Sunday.

Whether the Zags can win four games in two weeks and go to New Orleans depends on how Holmgren performs in big games. He’s been productive against UCLA and Duke, but also struggled to make a consistent offensive impact in games against Texas, Alabama and Texas Tech.

“The difference is going to be how elite Chet is against those guys,” one coach said. “Can he protect the rim against those guys? Can he switch ball screens against those guys? Is he consistently game-changing elite? They don’t guard differently, they’re just now playing Timme and Chet. They can get dragged away from the rim. So when you’re playing athletes like Davion Mitchell and Baylor [last season], I don’t know.”

Gonzaga started off the season looking just as dominant as last season, peaking with a 20-point demolition of UCLA in Las Vegas in late November. The Zags came back down to Earth three days later in a loss to Duke and then gave up 91 points in a loss to Alabama a week later. That’s given opposing coaches some pause in considering whether they can get back to a Final Four.

“They’ve been a clear top-two team the last few years,” one coach said, “but this year you can make a case for other teams.”

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What’s the same?

UCLA is the most similar team in this piece from a personnel perspective. The Bruins returned every key piece from last season’s Final Four run, and for the most part, they’re playing similar roles.

Johnny Juzang sparked last season’s run by averaging 22.8 points in six NCAA tournament games and he had started returning to that form before missing a pair of games due to COVID-19 protocols. Juzang averaged 22.6 points and shot 50.0% from 3-point range in his past five games.

“He’s a great player,” one Pac-12 coach said. “At times last year, like against Stanford, he scored 26 of 33 points. He had stretches last year where he was the offense. And he’s the same this year, when he’s flowing and hitting shots. And he can take some tough ones — but he’s really, really good at making them. He makes them harder to guard.”

Juzang’s sidekick in the tournament last season, Jaime Jaquez Jr., put up 15.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 3.0 assists in six tourney games. When Juzang needed a break, Jaquez stepped up and found ways to produce and provide balance in the half court. He’s been hampered by an ankle injury this season, but is still an impactful two-way player.

“Jaquez is the type of guy that comes up in big moments, plays big in big games,” an opposing coach said. “The best thing he does is his defense, his toughness. He fits Mick Cronin. He’s the perfect Mick Cronin guy on the West Coast. He can play multiple positions, he can guard multiple positions. He hasn’t shot it as well from 3 this year, but he’s still a dangerous guy.”

With everyone coming back and a couple of key additions, though, Cronin hasn’t had to change much to achieve success this season.

“They’re not reinventing the wheel. They’re doing what they do and they do it really well,” a Pac-12 coach said. “When you have experienced guys that are good one-on-one players, good isolation players, playing with confidence, you’re going to get good results. And that’s what UCLA is doing.”

What’s different?

Defensively, UCLA has really bought into what Cronin has preached since his days at Murray State: tough, physical half-court defense. After ranking No. 112 in adjusted defensive efficiency in Cronin’s first season and No. 46 last season, the Bruins are up to No. 9 in the country this season.

“I think they’re more comfortable in the system,” a coach said. “[Tyger] Campbell has improved his on-ball pressure, they’ve become better individual defenders. The backline understands where they’re supposed to be. They don’t give up much. Only two teams have scored 80 points on them, and those were the two losses. In order to beat them, you have to score. And they’re really hard to score on.”

One noticeable difference is UCLA’s pace. Cronin’s teams have ranked in the bottom 30 nationally in tempo for nearly a decade, but the Bruins are solidly middle of the pack nationally in pace this season. Most of that comes from their offense, where they’re pushing the pace.

“They’re playing a little faster offensively. A little faster tempo, they have more faith and trust in their guys. It’s their third year in their system,” a coach said. “Tyger Campbell understands everything that Cronin wants to do. So they’re playing a bit faster. But personnel-wise and style, in terms of running stuff and the players they want to get shots and where, it’s the same.”

UCLA’s depth has also improved. The Bruins played just six guys for more than eight minutes in the Final Four loss to Gonzaga last season and only six guys for more than five minutes in the Elite Eight win over Michigan.

“Myles Johnson and Peyton Watson give them depth and size,” one coach said. “David Singleton and Jake Kyman, they still have those guys on the bench, two experienced and good players. Kyman had a good game the other night against Stanford. He would be playing for the other 11 teams in the conference — a large role — and he barely gets off the bench at UCLA. They have really, really good depth.”

Can they get back to the Final Four?

UCLA hit some bumps in the road following its return from a COVID pause that lasted 27 days, losing to Oregon at home in its third game back and then struggling in road games at Utah and Colorado. But the Bruins have righted the ship, dominating Arizona like no team has so far this season and holding California and Stanford to a combined 100 points in two games.

“They’ve won six straight league games where their average margin of victory is 15,” a coach said. “Those close games on the road at Utah and Colorado, those are tough road games. They’re playing as well as any team in the country. They just need to stay healthy and do what they’ve been doing. They’re a really, really good ball club. UCLA can beat anyone in the country on any night.”

Given the way the Bruins are playing, what’s the biggest key moving forward in order to get to New Orleans in two months?

“Interior depth,” one coach mentioned. “Cody Riley was out early on in the year and that’s part of the reason they lost to Gonzaga. Just keeping him healthy and continuing to build up Myles Johnson. They don’t have many weaknesses, you have to catch them on an off-shooting night.”

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What’s the same?

Kelvin Sampson is a proven winner, regardless of personnel. The names change, the culture doesn’t. And that’s the case this season — Houston is winning the same way it has since Sampson took over in 2014.

The Cougars are dominant on the offensive glass, ranking in the top three nationally in offensive rebounding percentage for the third straight season, and it is difficult to score on at the other end. Houston is in the top 25 in adjusted defensive efficiency for the fifth straight season and in the top six in effective field goal percentage defense for the fifth consecutive season.

“They run the same stuff. The culture, the system, whatever you want to call it, is the same. Every year it’s the same,” one AAC coach said. “I’ve had that [scouting report] for years and he just plugs different guys into those roles, but they rebound so hard. They’re top 2-3 in the country in rebounding offensively. They’re so disciplined. They don’t make mistakes. You have to beat them, they never beat themselves. No silly lane violations. They just don’t make errors. They know what they’re going to do. It’s a simple formula but they do it and they do it really, really well.”

Houston prides itself on physicality and defense, and if teams aren’t accustomed to it, it’s difficult to win. In the Cougars’ only two losses, Wisconsin and Alabama were both highly efficient inside the arc. The Crimson Tide and Badgers were two of three teams to shoot better than 50% on 2-pointers this season; the third was Hofstra, which took Houston to overtime in the season opener.

“They’re really physical, they play really, really hard and he always has four or five bigs that he can rotate through and be really physical. If they get into foul trouble, he’s got two or three more behind them,” a coach said. “It’s their depth and how hard they play. Refs can’t call every foul if every play is that physical. The game ends up being extremely physical, whether you want it to be or not. They’re not fouling or being cheap or anything, they’re just really physical. Guys that weren’t tough, nasty guys — they become that when Kelvin has had them for a year or two. Credit to them, they’re doing a hell of a job.”

While the names are different than last season — for a variety of reasons, which we’ll explain in the next section — the roles are similar. A few years ago it was Rob Gray, then it was Corey Davis and Armoni Brooks, then it was Quentin Grimes and Marcus Sasser. Now it’s Kyler Edwards.

“You’re like, they lose Armoni Brooks and Rob Gray, thank God they’re gone. But then it’s Davis and Sasser,” an opposing coach said. “Their roles are very, very specific. If you’re one of the guys that gets to be Quentin Grimes or Marcus Sasser or Rob Gray, they’ve got two guys on that team that have a neon green light. The 4s and 5s know their roles so well. They’re already in position and boxing out. The point guard gets the scorers the ball and the bigs are already ready to rebound.”

What’s different?

Sasser seemed like the guy to replace Grimes as the team’s go-to scorer — and he embraced that role for the first month and a half of the season. He scored at least 25 points on four occasions — but then was lost for the season with a toe injury. Sasser followed guard Tramon Mark, who was lost for the season after seven games with a shoulder injury.

In stepped Kyler Edwards, the Texas Tech transfer who is on a tear over the past couple weeks. Entering Wednesday night, Edwards was averaging 23.5 points, 6.0 rebounds and 4.5 assists over his past four games, while shooting 47.9% from 3 on 12 attempts per game.

“Kyler Edwards stepped into that role of, I get to shoot 15 3s. Jamal Shead has gotten a lot more aggressive. He’s capable, man. He’s a heck of a player,” one coach said. “When Mark and Sasser went down, it was like all right, who are the two guys we’re going to ask to score the ball? Kyler is very capable of that, and Shead is hot and cold, but if he clicks, he’s capable of scoring.”

One noticeable difference on the offensive end this season is Houston’s improved balance. The Cougars rarely played through their big men last season, but UConn transfer Josh Carlton has allowed them to throw the ball into the post more often this season. Carlton has scored in double figures in 11 of the past 15 games, including a 30-point, 11-rebound effort at South Florida in early January. He’s averaging 14.3 points and 7.5 rebounds over that span.

“They didn’t have post guys like that in the past,” an opposing coach said. “They’ve always played through their guards and those other guys are just rebounders. But Josh has taken on a different role since the other guys went down. So they’re changing it up, playing through him a little bit more.”

Can they get back to the Final Four?

The biggest question for opposing coaches regarding Houston’s ceiling this season has to do with the Cougars’ depth — both in terms of personnel on the bench and from a scoring options perspective. Do they have enough horses to compete with the elite teams nationally late in the NCAA tournament?

“Until the last couple weeks, Kyler could get streaky too. He was 1-for-14 against Wichita State. Sasser didn’t have those nights,” one coach said. “Kyler is a really good player, but Sasser was the best player in our league. If Kyler is having a bad night and Jamal is having a bad night, where do you go?

“One of their strengths was having four bigs and six guards. But if they get into foul trouble, the depth at the guard spot is thin [because of injuries]. If a couple guys get in foul trouble, I don’t know where they go if they get in foul trouble or face a high-tempo team. Do they have enough to play a game like that? I haven’t seen it happen to them yet.”

A year ago, Houston was dominant for most of AAC play — but also took advantage of a friendly road to the Final Four. The Cougars beat a 15-seed, a 10-seed, an 11-seed and a 12-seed on the way to the national semifinals.

“It’s so hard to get to a Final Four, but especially with their lack of depth and key players missing,” an opposing coach said. “They’re a really good team. Last year, teams hoped they played well enough to keep it close and then maybe steal it. Now, teams think they can beat them a little bit. When you get to Sweet 16-caliber teams, I don’t know if they can get past those games again. To lose two of your best players and get back? They’re very, very, very good because of their system and culture, but that would be [impressive].”