It was an unusually quiet winter on the recruiting trail. Only three ESPN 100 seniors made commitments, although one of them, Mark Mitchell, gave Duke the No. 1 recruiting class in the country.
Part of the reason for the slow machinations in the 2022 class over the past couple months was the busy summer and fall, when more than 90 prospects in the top 100 made their college decisions. Coming out of the early signing period, not a single five-star prospect was still available.
With the Hoophall Classic taking place this past weekend, most of the big national events on the high school calendar are finished — and all eyes will now turn toward state playoffs, postseason all-star games and GEICO Nationals. It also means we’re inching toward the late signing period and decision-making time for the remaining prospects in 2022.
As we enter this stretch for the 2022 class, what are the biggest storylines? And who’s still available?
1. Is anyone still left in the ESPN 100?
Of course. There are nine uncommitted ESPN 100 prospects, following the recent pledges of Rowan Brumbaugh (Texas) and Kamari Lands (Louisville). And one prospect rose into five-star territory as the clear headliner moving forward:
Anthony Black (No. 20) was more focused on becoming eligible for the high school season than on his recruitment for most of November and December. But he is back playing, so he can begin to figure out his college decision. Gonzaga and Oklahoma State have long been thought of as the leaders for Black, although Arkansas, Georgia and TCU have remained in the mix.
Judah Mintz (No. 35) decommitted from Pittsburgh back in mid-November, and he immediately had a long list of schools reach out with interest. Tennessee, Florida and Xavier were among the first schools to call Mintz, and all three are still in the running, along with several others. He is expected to visit Xavier before the end of the month.
Yohan Traore (No. 36) took official visits to Kansas, Memphis, Michigan and Texas Tech in the fall but opted against making a decision during the early period. Instead of narrowing things down from there — he is unlikely to go the pro route at this point, though — Traore heard from other schools over the winter. Kentucky became involved in early December.
Eric Dailey (No. 37) has high-major schools in pursuit, but he appears perhaps the likeliest of this group to go to the pro route after high school.
AZ Compass with some beautiful dishes to get Adrame Diongue the slam💥@AZCompass_Prep @15Diongue @HoophallClassic @PaulBiancardi pic.twitter.com/4GCT1DysxA
— SportsCenter NEXT (@SCNext) January 16, 2022
Adrame Diongue (No. 50) has made a huge jump during his senior season, starting at the Hoophall West event last month. Maryland extended a scholarship offer to Diongue a few weeks ago, joining a list of schools that also includes Illinois, Oregon State, Texas, Texas Tech and Kansas.
Amarr Knox (No. 65) decommitted from Memphis in late October, and he has been patiently going through the process during his senior season. He told ESPN on Wednesday that Xavier, South Carolina State, Drake, Georgia Southern, Tennessee State and UT Martin are pursuing him the hardest.
Zion Cruz (No. 72) appeared close to committing several times during the fall, with Memphis looking like the clear leader. That has changed in the months since, with Georgia, DePaul, Xavier, Western Kentucky and potentially the pro route becoming options for Cruz.
Keba Keita (No. 84) is another fast riser during the winter, having impressed at the Hoophall Classic. Keita visited Dixie State, and he has an offer from Washington, but expect his recruitment to grow rapidly.
Sadraque Nganga (No. 86) dropped in the rankings after he missed his junior season due to injury, but several schools remain interested. Nganga has taken a visit to Saint Mary’s, and he recently told reporters that Memphis and Kansas also were showing interest.
2. Who’s No. 1?
With Shaedon Sharpe enrolling at Kentucky this semester, he is no longer in the rankings — despite still counting toward the Wildcats’ recruiting class. With him out of the picture, Duke signee Dereck Lively has moved to the No. 1 spot, with Amari Bailey (UCLA), Keyonte George (Baylor) and Dariq Whitehead (Duke) on his heels.
Can anyone make a legitimate push to knock Lively from the top? No. 5 Kyle Filipowski was impressive at the Hoophall Classic, and he gives Duke three of the top-five players in the 2022 class. Dillon Mitchell (No. 7, Texas), Gradey Dick (No. 8, Kansas) and Jarace Walker (No. 9, Houston) were three of the biggest five-star risers since the last update, but it remains to be seen if they can move even higher.
OH MY GOODNESS DILLON MITCHELL. pic.twitter.com/CofmihhBt8
— #23 Texas Men’s Basketball (@TexasMBB) January 17, 2022
Keep an eye on Kel’el Ware too. In all likelihood, the Oregon signee can’t get to No. 1, but he jumped from No. 39 to No. 16, and he has one of the highest ceilings in the class.
3. Does Duke have No. 1 locked up?
When Mark Mitchell picked Duke over UCLA in December, the Blue Devils overtook Kentucky to become the top class in the country. With the rise of Filipowski into the top five, it’s hard to imagine Jon Scheyer’s first-ever recruiting class not finishing atop the rankings.
Given the lack of available players in the ESPN 100, there simply isn’t enough talent on the board to close the gap on Duke. If Arkansas makes a surprising push and lands Anthony Black, perhaps it can get to No. 2. Kansas and Alabama don’t have top-tier targets remaining.
What about Kentucky? There’s always the chance that the Wildcats will get a 2023 prospect to reclassify or go all in on Yohan Traore or something like that, but John Calipari has a terrific recruiting class and will likely have to settle for No. 2.
4. Could anyone else become available in 2022?
While the focus on transfers has dramatically impacted recruiting in the spring — more on that in a minute — expect some surprises once the offseason hits. Remember, former top-five prospects Emoni Bates and Jalen Duren played on the Nike EYBL circuit all spring and summer before opting to reclassify in August and play college basketball this season. Justice Williams (LSU Tigers) and Corey Floyd Jr. (UConn) did the same.
Reclassifications have become increasingly common over the past decade, although it’s too early to speculate which 2023 prospects might make the jump.
Aside from juniors graduating high school early, there will undoubtedly be signed prospects reopening their recruitments following coaching changes. While we won’t see a carousel like last year, when North Carolina and Duke both had fluid head coaching situations, there will still likely be a handful of high-major openings — meaning ESPN 100 decommitments are bound to happen.
5. What impact will the transfer portal have on spring recruiting?
As referenced above, recruiting from the transfer portal has completely dominated the roster-building aspect of college basketball in the spring.
When a new coach takes over a job, the first place he looks for players is the transfer portal, because he wants guys who can help him win right away. Programs coming off a down year hit the portal to upgrade the proven talent already on their roster. Schools near the top of the pecking order look for their potential missing player in the portal.
That could mean one of two things for remaining seniors in the 2022 class:
They could decide before the end of the college season, when the portal really starts to populate. It ensures that a spot at their desired school is still there, before the head coach decides to stop waiting and explore the portal for a replacement. Or they could wait until the dust settles in late April or early May and see which schools still need a player at their position.
One benefit that late signees in the 2022 class have over their 2020 and 2021 counterparts is that they’re actually able to take visits this spring (due to COVID-19, visits to schools were put on hold for nearly 15 months, from March 2020 to June 2021). So this year’s prospects are not making commitments sight unseen. But the fact that last year’s seniors did could mean the portal sees even bigger numbers this spring.