2022 NBA draft top 100 and stock watch: Who’s on the move after Feast Week?

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7:30 AM ET

Friday night’s epic battle between the expected top two picks in the 2022 NBA draft — Chet Holmgren of Gonzaga and Paolo Banchero of Duke — lived up to its billing not only for college basketball fans but for the dozens of NBA evaluators on hand for the matchup in Las Vegas. Holmgren and Banchero both issued strong performances in Duke’s thrilling 84-81 win, with Banchero coming strong out of the gate with a 20-point first-half performance, and Holmgren doing most of his damage in the second half and finishing with 16 points.

Who will go No. 1 in the 2022 draft? It’s a question ESPN’s draft evaluators Jonathan Givony and Mike Schmitz will continue to consider until next summer’s big night, but this week’s revision of ESPN’s top 100 shows how our experts are stacking them … for now. In addition to Holmgren and Banchero, ESPN has been all over the country evaluating NBA prospects over the first three weeks of the college basketball season, including a generous selection of important and telling Feast Week games on Thanksgiving week.

2022 NBA draft stock watch

Chet Holmgren | 7-0 | PF | Age: 19.5 | Gonzaga | No. 1

While Banchero stole the show in Vegas, looking like a franchise player, longtime All-Star and future Rookie of the Year during the first half of Duke’s win over Gonzaga, Holmgren holds the very slight edge atop our prospect rankings.

Between his block-and-push dunk against UCLA and the second-half resolve he showed against Duke, Holmgren gave the scouts and executives who were already bullish about his potential little reason to be discouraged about his long-term outlook. During three games in Vegas, Holmgren averaged 16.7 points, 6 rebounds and 3.3 blocks in 25.6 minutes while shooting 17-of-19 from 2 and 4-of-11 from 3, bringing his true shooting percentage to 75.5%, second on our top-100 behind only Baylor’s Kendall Brown.

There’s no hiding that Holmgren struggled with the physicality of Duke. Theo John boxed him out of shot-blocking opportunities. Banchero went right through his chest for an and-one finish. Wendell Moore Jr., finished through him twice. Mark Williams beat him up on the glass some. But despite early foul trouble that limited his first-half impact, Holmgren kept coming, blocking a Banchero-driving layup to start the second half, meeting A.J. Griffin at the summit with perfect verticality technique, tossing in a one-legged Dirk Nowitzki-type fallaway over the 7-foot-7 wingspan of Williams, and beating a hobbled Banchero to offensive rebounds.

Sitting courtside close to Gonzaga’s bench, I observed that Holmgren’s expression never changed and he was eager and determined to throw his 195-pound frame around as often as he could, which is what makes him different to other skinny, multi-talented bigs we’ve seen. While Holmgren will never be a bruiser, it’s worth going back and looking at what 19-year-old Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, Anthony Davis, and Rudy Gobert looked like, as that should instill optimism that Holmgren will ultimately fill out.

He’ll never be as dynamic a scorer or shot creator as Banchero, who looked like a 6-10, 250-pound Carmelo Anthony from my vantage point in T-Mobile Arena. But Holmgren is the type of prospect who can take five shots and completely dominate a game, which is a big reason why Evan Mobley — with whom he shares some similarities — has been the NBA’s Rookie of the Year so far. As evidence of that all-around impact, Holmgren is the only player in NCAA history to average at least 20 points, 10 rebounds, 5 blocks and 4 assists per 40 minutes, and he’s doing so shooting 85% from 2 and 31% from 3.

Given his role alongside All-American and aggressive scorer Drew Timme on what is the No. 1 offense in the country according to KenPom, scouts may never see the full arsenal Holmgren showcased at the high school level outside of spot 3s, lobs at the rim, post turnarounds and transition pushes. Bigs in general are tough to evaluate at the college level because of the difference in spacing, and Holmgren is no different.

Having already faced three of the best teams in the country in Duke, Texas and UCLA, the Gonzaga freshman will be challenged again this Saturday in Seattle against JD Davison and Alabama, which play with the 11th-fastest pace in the country. With Banchero right on his heels for the top spot, Holmgren now has an opportunity to prove he can keep up against the type of small-ball lineup he’s expected to face plenty of at the next level.

— Mike Schmitz

Paolo Banchero | 6-10 | PF | Age: 19.0 | Duke | No. 2

Banchero’s 20-point first half against Gonzaga was one of the most impressive displays of skill, power and aggressiveness we’ve seen from a freshman in some time. Armed with the freedom to bust out off the defensive glass, initiate and reject pick-and-rolls with 7-1 teammate Williams setting ball-screens and pull up off the dribble from beyond the arc in transition, the fireworks Banchero unleashed give him an easy case to be considered the No. 1 pick in the draft.

Banchero seemingly heard the questions scouts posed regarding his shooting range and his willingness to pass. He responded by making 7-of-16 3-pointers and dishing out 11 assists in the past three games. Banchero further helped himself by making hustle plays in transition and showing his awareness and smarts with some solid closeouts, another area that NBA executives have nitpicked at times. He does have some moments where he looks somewhat lethargic off the ball, or a split-second late reacting on the glass or rotating to challenge shots at the rim, so continuing to defend with energy will be important for his No. 1 pick candidacy.

With an NBA-ready frame, the type of skill set that should translate seamlessly and likely the highest floor of any player in this draft, Banchero could slide into an NBA game tomorrow and post similar numbers to what he’s producing at Duke with the benefit of added spacing and tempo. To cement himself as the No. 1 pick, Banchero will need to show that he can continue to grow on the defensive end and do enough little things to help an NBA team win games, something he’s in an ideal situation to do. Ultimately, it would be foolish to overthink Banchero’s scoring instincts, productivity and versatility, as he’s clearly a special talent that virtually any NBA team would be thrilled to build around.

— Jonathan Givony

Jabari Smith | 6-10 | PF | Age: 18.5 | Auburn | No. 3

After watching Smith against UConn and Loyola Chicago in the Bahamas, and interviewing him, I was blown away by his agility, skill level, competitiveness and approach to the game. I consider him a true dark horse No. 1 candidate if he continues on this trajectory.

Known to float a little bit at the high school level, Smith showed real character in a double overtime loss to UConn, finishing with 22 points on 13 shots, 6 rebounds and 3 assists in 39 minutes. Never mind his sweet shooting stroke, elite perimeter defense and automatic mid-post turnaround, it was how vocal and energetic Smith was that most grabbed my attention. He was often the loudest guy on the floor, barking out pick-and-roll coverages, communicating switches with great activity and pumping up the crowd after big plays. He’s in incredible shape, showing little signs of fatigue whether beating everyone down the floor or hitting the deck from hard fouls. He wanted the ball in big moments, rebounded with energy and effort and proved calm, cool and collected at the free throw line, sinking all 12 of his attempts with perfect mechanics.

Smith is not the shot-creator Banchero is yet. He’s certainly not the rim protector Holmgren is. But Smith has two really strong pillars to build around: His jump shot and his perimeter defense. Smith is the best shooter of the three players, connecting on 43% of his 3s (30 attempts) and 84% of his free throws so far. Given his footwork and balance, he holds potential as an on-the-move shooter as well, showcasing the ability to rise up off the dribble for pull-up 3s. That jumper is a weapon to build around, and creative NBA coaches could opt to either use him as a pick-and-pop four, or even a jumbo wing like the Nuggets use Michael Porter Jr., activating his jump shot by bringing him off handoffs, pindowns and staggers. Put a big on him, and Smith is capable of attacking the rim off the bounce, even if he can stand to tighten his handle, make better reads and settle for pull-ups less often. Put a small on him, and he’s almost automatic out of the mid-post, with turnarounds over either shoulder.

It’s Smith’s defensive footwork that could allow him to play as a jumbo wing at times, as he’s maybe the best perimeter defender in the draft, with elite footwork and balance he credits to 6 a.m. jump roping sessions with his dad (former NBA player Jabari Smith Sr.) at age 12. He’s a special mover with rare fluidity and coordination for 6-foot-10, which shows up defensively. Ask Smith how many positions he can guard and he’s quick to answer.

“Five,” he told me. “Easy. No hesitation.”

Even Joel Embiid or Nikola Jokic?

“Oh, I don’t know about [defending] 300 pounds but close to it,” he told me with a smile.

Smith can still improve as a passer, sharpen his handle and be more focused as an off-ball defender despite his clear playmaking ability (2.0 steals and 1.4 blocks per 40 minutes). He’s also still filling out physically at 220 pounds, which when combined with his average 7-1 wingspan and wing-like frame limits his ability to play a heavy dose of 5, at least early in his career. But he checks just about every other box, is considerably younger than both Holmgren and Banchero, and more than proved he belonged last time all three squared off as high schoolers at Pangos All-American camp, with Smith winning MVP.

“I feel like I stack up neck and neck really,” Smith said. “I looked them in the eye and gave them everything I got, they gave me everything they had. I feel like everybody knows that I’m up there with them.”

— Mike Schmitz

Jaden Ivey | 6-4 | PG/SG | Age: 19.7 | Purdue | No. 5

Ivey has picked up right where he left off in the NCAA tournament last March (https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/31121397/how-top-nba-draft-prospects-fared-ncaa-men-basketball-tournament) and the FIBA U19 World Cup in July (https://www.espn.com/nba/insider/story/_/id/31811534/chet-holmgren-caleb-houstan-other-college-stars-talking-next-year-nba-draft), helping Purdue knock off North Carolina and Villanova with two excellent showings at the Hall of Fame Tip-Off Tournament in Connecticut.

Standing over 6-4 with a near 6-10 wingspan, Ivey has a combination of speed, power and explosiveness that is rarely seen at the college level, making him one of the most physically gifted prospects in the draft. While he’s still figuring out how to harness that on a consistent basis, he did some breathtaking things in the open court. Ivey dished out 13 assists compared with only 2 turnovers against the Tar Heels and Wildcats, found a way to knock down 4-of-10 3-pointers and played with non-stop energy defensively and on the glass.

Ivey has been a bit inconsistent otherwise, as he struggles when pushed to his weaker left hand in the half-court, and isn’t a good enough off-the-dribble shooter or decision-maker to be trusted to run a team full time. NBA scouts have noted that he almost never brings the ball up or initiates the offense as a traditional point guard, the position he projects as in the NBA. The Purdue coaching staff prefers to have the ball in the hands of their more steady and reliable upperclassmen to run the team’s highly disciplined and brutally effective offense.

Some of those same scouts also note the incredible trajectory Ivey is on, as he entered college as the No. 81 high school prospect in his recruiting class but has developed at a remarkable clip. Ivey is the same age as or younger than several highly touted freshmen, giving him plenty of upside to grow into as his skill set evolves and he matures in terms of body language and unselfishness — areas where he’s been criticized in the past. Purdue is the No. 2 team in the country, and a run to the Final Four could certainly cement Ivey’s status as a potential top-5 pick.

— Jonathan Givony

Kendall Brown | 6-8 | SF | Age: 18.5 | Baylor | No. 19

No player in our top-100 has been more efficient than Brown so far this season. The freshman ranks 1st in that group in true shooting percentage while possessing the physical profile, quickness, speed and leaping ability NBA teams look for in a wing, emerging as a first-round-caliber prospect in the process.

Having now seen Brown both in a practice setting and in the Battle 4 Atlantis, his elasticity as an athlete really pops, especially off of two feet. With measurables similar to a young Andrew Wiggins at 6-8, 205 with a 6-11 wingspan, Brown is incredibly quick off the floor, can stop and start instantaneously and is a nightmare for opposing defenses in transition when he opts to get out and run with his blazing open-court speed. Brown has done a nice job of keeping it simple offensively through seven games, moving the ball and staying active as a cutter, while showcasing more passing feel (3.7 assists per 40 minutes) than scouts anticipated.

Brown’s clear swing skill is his shooting. He doesn’t have the most fluid stroke — with mechanics similar to Matisse Thybulle — and has a tendency to shy away from open looks or not stay spaced to the corner. He’s attempted just 6 triples in 171 minutes so far, but Brown has connected on 4 of the 6, is making 71% of his free throws and has soft touch on his floater. With over 43% of his offense coming in transition and possessing a low usage rate, scouts will have a close eye on how Brown’s shooting, ball handling and passing look against set defenses throughout the season, as that will go a long way in determining his NBA upside. But in the interim, the fact that he’s been able to score the ball efficiently without much volume and make heady reads in space bodes well for his draft stock.

Defensively, Brown has the quickness and length to be a highly impactful on- and off-ball defender. He’s rangy with solid all-around instincts, which have allowed him to collect 2.6 steals and 0.7 blocks per 40 minutes thus far. Very quiet on the floor, Brown isn’t the type of demonstrative personality we see from a lot of elite wing defenders, and he’s likely better defending 1 through 3 than true combo forward types given his frame. But Brown has all the ingredients to be a high-level NBA defender for years to come.

With the NBA starved for rangy wings who can guard and potentially make a shot, the 18-year-old Brown will have plenty of interest league-wide, especially because he’s likely to grade out well analytically thanks to his combination of youth, efficiency and production.

— Mike Schmitz

Wendell Moore Jr. | 6-6 | SF | Age: 20.1 | Duke | No. 27

Moore entered Duke in 2019 projected as a one-and-done first-rounder, but saw his draft buzz extinguished after two underachieving seasons that featured too many moments of poor production and decision-making, especially in key moments of big games. Seven games into his junior year, Moore looks like a completely different player, operating with a level of aggressiveness and physicality we haven’t seen since high school.

Moore was the best player on the floor at times against Gonzaga, posting a stellar 20 points, 6 rebounds, 6 assists and 4 steals. He’s been knocking down 3-pointers much more consistently, has been tasked with defending guards, wings and forwards thanks to his 7-foot wingspan and chiseled 220-pound frame and has been passing the ball exceptionally well all season, becoming a key cog in Duke’s well-oiled offensive attack.

Having just turned 20 in September, Moore is the same age or younger than most sophomores in college, making it easy for NBA teams to brush off his struggles as an underclassman if he continues to produce as the season moves on. He’s in an ideal situation on the No. 1 team in the country to show off his chops as a tailor-made NBA role-player, especially if he can continue to shoot the ball effectively from the perimeter and play with the type of toughness and decisiveness that was sorely lacking in his game earlier in his career.

— Jonathan Givony

Christian Koloko | 6-10 | C | Age: 21.4 | Arizona | No. 32

A bit player in his first two seasons at Arizona, Koloko is developing into a star as a junior, helping Tommy Lloyd start his first season 6-0 and climbing from unranked to the No. 11 team in the country thanks to wins over Michigan and Wichita State. Koloko’s numbers — 25.3 points, 11.7 rebounds, 5.5 blocks, 2.6 assists and 1.6 steals per-40 minutes, shooting 71% from the field and 78% from the free throw line — are some of the best in the country.

With his 7-4 wingspan, much improved 230-pound frame and outstanding mobility, Koloko is the anchor of Arizona’s staunch defense and is demonstrating impressive versatility covering ground on the perimeter as well as rotating to contest and block shots around the rim.

Offensively, Koloko has taken a major step forward with his skill level and awareness as well, showing a knack for operating out of ball-screens and hand-offs while providing a steady presence as a lob-catcher thanks to his huge standing reach and improved hands and touch.

NBA scouts have seen parts of this movie before, with Koloko showing signs of taking the next step with his productivity and approach, only to be disappointed as he crashed to earth. This time feels a lot more sustainable, especially seeing the way he thoroughly dominated All-American Hunter Dickinson on both ends of the floor in the shellacking of Michigan, but only time will tell if Koloko has indeed taken the next step and is ready to be considered a legitimate first round pick.

— Jonathan Givony

Justin Lewis | 6-7 | SF/PF | Age: 19.7 | Marquette | No. 35

The 19-year-old sophomore Lewis has taken a huge step so far this season, emerging as Marquette’s leading scorer (17.3 points) and evolving into a legitimate floor spacer after shooting just 22% from 3 a season ago. Despite being the same age as some freshmen, Lewis has been incredibly consistent so far this season under Shaka Smart, scoring at least 15 points in every game thanks to his ability to knock down open shots and score out of the mid-post.

Physically, Lewis is hard to miss at 6-7, 245 pounds with a 7-2 wingspan, comparing favorably to names like Draymond Green, Paul Millsap, and Eric Paschall from a physical perspective. In part because of his impressive profile, Lewis was identified early by USA Basketball, joining the program for camps as a 14-year-old.

Despite his strength, length and offensive improvement, Lewis’ decision-making and overall feel for the game is a work in progress (6 assists to 12 turnovers in 222 minutes). He’s still learning how to read closeouts, when to shoot versus when to drive and how to effectively see the floor on the fly. On top of that, Lewis is more strong and powerful than he is quick or explosive, and scouts will want to see whether he can step out and check true combo forward types or guards on switches while knowing where to be off the ball.

But because of his NFL body and huge wingspan, Lewis has been able to play some 5 for Smart, something that could certainly continue in the NBA, as has occurred for similarly profiled players Green, Paschall and Millsap at times. Every coach wants a body they can throw at James or Antetokounmpo while adding some value offensively. While still at an early stage of development skill-wise, Lewis fits that mold, and could garner first-round interest if Marquette keeps winning and he proves his shooting is for real while showing enough glimpses as a passer and defender.

— Mike Schmitz

Johnny Davis | 6-5 | SG | Age: 19.7 | Wisconsin | No. 38

Davis helped himself as much as any other prospect during Feast Week, leading Wisconsin to a Maui Invitational title while averaging 23.6 points, 6.6 rebounds and 2.3 steals per game on 48% shooting from 2 and 46% from 3. It was his 30-point game in a win over then-No. 12 Houston that carried the most weight for Davis, whose father, Mark, played 13 years professionally including short stints with the Bucks and Suns.

Not only did the younger Davis score efficiently at all three levels in the Maui event, he was the best defender on the floor, pressuring the ball, fighting over screens, battling on switches, making plays in the passing lanes and flying around for key rebounds. With a similar physical profile to Jalen Suggs, Davis — who like Suggs was also a standout high school quarterback — is able to use his strong base, quick feet and competitiveness to contain dribble-penetration against either guard spot. His defensive toughness has played a big role in Wisconsin ranking 7th in the nation in adjusted defensive efficiency according to KenPom.

Although shooting just 27% from 3 so far, Davis is more than capable with his feet set from beyond the arc, and made a host of big shots off the dribble in “Maui,” (a tournament held in Las Vegas this season), including a late-game pull-up 3 against Saint Mary’s to help put the title bout on ice. His 88% free throw clip and the 36% he shot from the FIBA line with the USA U19 team over the summer is more indicative of his shooting stroke than his current percentage.

On the flip side, Davis has plenty of room to improve as a ball-handler and passer, as he’s more of a score-first off guard than a true combo at this stage, even if he’s capable of making basic drop-off and kick-out reads. Davis’ finishing can improve also. While equipped with big hands and impressive two-foot bounce, Davis would benefit from adding more nuance and deception around the rim while picking his spots a little better. The fact that he’s shooting 43% from 2 and 27% from 3 is far from ideal, but Davis isn’t likely to be the No. 1 option at the NBA level like he is at Wisconsin, which should lead to an uptick in efficiency so long as he can stabilize as a perimeter shooter.

Given his defensive toughness, shooting potential and winning style of play, it’s easy to envision Davis eventually carving out a Josh Hart-type of role in the NBA, potentially becoming even more than that if his offensive game continues to evolves. After introducing himself to the mob of scouts that parked in Vegas all week, Davis will be watched closely between now and the end of the season, with Wisconsin’s January 3rd game against Jaden Ivey and Purdue an excellent litmus test for the 19-year-old. Should Davis carry this momentum into conference play, he could surely emerge as a 2022 draft target, potentially as high as the late first round.

— Mike Schmitz

Jonathan Givony is an NBA draft expert and the founder and co-owner of DraftExpress.com, a private scouting and analytics service utilized by NBA, NCAA and international teams.

This article was originally published by Espn.com. Read the original article here.
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