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Jeff PassanESPN
IRVING, Texas — The free-agency frenzy of Sunday, which saw $407 million guaranteed to players, was the latest sign that a labor stoppage in Major League Baseball is upon us. At this point, with the collective bargaining agreement set to expire at 11:59 p.m. on Wednesday, the rush to lock in deals is the consequence of the likely lockout that would start at midnight.
Certainly the intersection of labor strife and free agency has made for the most compelling November in perhaps a decade. Marcus Semien grabbed his $175 million bag from the Texas Rangers. Kevin Gausman got $110 million to go to Toronto. Byron Buxton locked in $100 million to stay long-term with the Minnesota Twins and Sandy Alcantara $56 million with Miami. Jon Gray went to Texas and Avisail Garcia to Miami and Corey Kluber to Tampa Bay and Michael Lorenzen to the Los Angeles Angels and Kole Calhoun to Texas. More deals are coming. Soon.
But then, when it’s done — silence. The hot stove will be doused, for an indeterminate amount of time. On one hand, the fact that teams and players have acted as though the collective bargaining iceberg the industry is about to hit doesn’t really exist portends well for the possibility of a deal coming together before games are lost. On the other, that we’re here at the Four Seasons Dallas at Las Colinas, where the league and MLB Players Association will spend the next few days bargaining, and there is so little hope for a deal, speaks to the lack of progress up to this point.
There are a million questions coming off one of the wildest days of free agency in memory. Here are answers to 20 of them.
Where do things stand?
The same place they’ve stood for months: going nowhere fast. Both the union and the league believe in the strength of their positions. Neither side is willing to budge significantly. Thus, the only chance at a deal is an eleventh-hour Hail Mary.
Both parties understand the reality of the situation: While the basic agreement expires this week, a lockout at this time does no irreparable harm to the game. Yes, the optics are atrocious. Yes, it would ruin the quarter-century-plus-long labor peace that has existed since the last strike ended in 1995. But the real harm starts when games are missed, and they are in no great danger of that — yet.
Can a deal still come together?
Absolutely. Literally nobody in the industry believes it will, because it would mean all these months of gridlock vanish over about a 60-hour period and the sides bridge extraordinary economic and philosophical chasms, but weirder things have happened.
What’s on the table?
Not a whole lot yet, which is frustrating for all involved. The two sides have made their positions clear. The players want bigger paydays earlier in their careers, more competitive integrity, no service-time manipulation and fewer artificial restraints on players via the competitive-balance tax (CBT) and draft-pick compensation. Among the league’s objectives: a static amount of spending on players, expanded playoffs, an international draft and on-field changes.
MLB has offered to raise the CBT slightly after the union rejected a proposal of a $100 million salary floor — and lowering the CBT threshold from the current $210 million number to $180 million. With that raise, though, could come more onerous penalties for those that exceed it, which the union worries would negate any increase. The league also has shown a willingness to get rid of direct draft-pick compensation. Currently, teams can tender players a one-year qualifying offer — this year it was for $18.4 million — and if players reject it, the team that signs them is penalized via the loss of a draft pick. Ending that direct draft-pick compensation would, in theory, loosen the restraints.
Other concepts the league introduced in recent bargaining sessions included an NBA-style draft lottery, the implementation of a universal designated hitter and an increase in minimum salaries. The lottery could incentivize teams against tanking, addressing the competitive-integrity issue that players have said is vital. The proposed bump from the current minimum salary of $570,500 a year was minimal — though the real hope among a large number of players is less about addressing the minimum itself and more about opening up options for elite performance to be rewarded.
While MLB has talked about a bonus pool for players with less than three years of service time, marrying that to something like a reimagining of the arbitration system — in which there would be a pool of money for arbitration-eligible players divvied up based on a concept like Wins Above Replacement — went over poorly when the league introduced it.
There are wins to be had for players. And there are wins, such as expanding the playoffs, that owners believe are legitimate possibilities. A deal will come together when the sides narrow down what’s realistic amid all of the dreaming that slows down all bargaining sessions.
The hope is that this week more clearly defines those lines, so that even if there is a lockout, the path to a deal will come more easily into focus.
OK, so that sounds like there could be a little progress. What is the biggest impediment?
It’s not a lack of respect, even if there is anger all around. The talks aren’t pleasant, but they’re not supposed to be. The unspoken truth of all unions and employers is that it is an inherently adversarial relationship between two parties that also understand the greatest success comes from a partnership that makes both of them richer and grows the product.
In MLB and the MLBPA’s case, it’s more about where they started and how big a divide they must bridge. The players believe they’ve given up a spectacular amount of ground in recent years — just look at average salary, which stayed flat even as revenues climbed — and want to regain their footing with clear wins. The league is perfectly happy with the system as is — and it’s difficult to blame owners considering the strength they’ve slowly built over time.
Is there a lesson to be taken from that?
Absolutely. The players know they’re not going to hit a 500-foot home run with these negotiations. They can’t allow their anger — rightful in plenty of ways — to cloud the greater objectives.
And yet this is where the inherent advantage of the owners reveals itself. Player careers are finite. The vast majority will spend such little time in the major leagues that only one CBA will apply to them. Understandably, they want all of the advantages that will benefit them to happen now. Owning a team is an exercise in patience. The New York Yankees have been in the Steinbrenner family’s stewardship since 1973. Jerry Reinsdorf bought the Chicago White Sox in 1981. Owners typically hold onto teams for more than a decade. They can play the long game.
Can the players?
We’re about to find out. They certainly showed resolve last year, as they fought against MLB’s offers to cut their pay amid the pandemic. Commissioner Rob Manfred wound up imposing a 60-game schedule — and players were paid less than they’d have been at reduced salaries over, say, 80 games. But the principle of full pay won the day, and the hope is that experience steels them for the rigors of a work stoppage.
Unanimity — or as close as a group of 1,200 can come to it — is vital for emerging from any work stoppage with a victory. The players are tired of taking haircuts in some areas of free agency — middle-class veterans are shorn bald by now — and younger players see their jerseys among the league’s best-selling merchandise and wonder why they’re still subject to sub-$600,000 salaries for the first three years of their careers. It’s easy to see a world in which the union fractures, which makes the job of MLBPA executive director Tony Clark as much about keeping them together as anything.
Who are the power brokers?
There are Manfred and Clark. Deputy commissioner Dan Halem and Bruce Meyer, the union’s senior director of collective bargaining and legal, are the negotiators for each side. The eight-man executive subcommittee for the union consists of Zack Britton, Jason Castro, Gerrit Cole, Francisco Lindor, Andrew Miller, James Paxton, Marcus Semien and Max Scherzer — all veteran players. The seven-man labor-policy committee includes chair Dick Monfort (Colorado), Mark Attanasio (Milwaukee), Ray Davis (Texas), Ron Fowler (San Diego), John Henry (Boston), Jim Pohlad (Minnesota) and Hal Steinbrenner (Yankees).
What’s the plan here?
The first bargaining session begins at 2 p.m. Monday. The idea is for the sides to talk Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday. And if there’s not a deal, then vaya con dios.
That’s when we get a lockout?
When a CBA expires, there are actually a couple of options. The league could keep free agency open and continue to negotiate with the players — especially if it feels like there has been movement in negotiations this week. In that case, MLB could also set a specific lockout date — say, two weeks from now — to put pressure on the players in hopes they work toward an agreement.
Or they could lock out immediately, figuring there’s no sense in delaying the inevitable. That’s what leagues across all sports have done when collective bargaining agreements expire during an offseason. And because history has led to the feeling of inevitability, the union has prepared its players for an immediate lockout.
What would that look like?
Baseball, as we’ve come to know it in the winter, would shut down. No trades. No major league free agency. No communication at all between players and teams. If a player is getting married, the general manager can’t go to the wedding.
Yikes. Though … how big of a deal is that, really, if they’re just going to pick up all of those things when the lockout ends?
It’s a pretty big deal for the players. Those rehabbing from injuries can’t communicate with the team’s training staff. Players who rely on team-run wellness programs for therapy or mental health issues must cease engagement. There is fear among players from Latin America that their visa statuses could be problematic. A lockout preparation guide distributed by the union and obtained by ESPN said: “If a Player on a P-1 or O-1 visa has not entered the United States prior to the commencement of the lockout, the visa could be revoked. Players with petitions to extend or renew their visas will have their petitions suspended if they have not entered the United States prior to the commencement of the lockout. In addition, visa may not be renewed or extended during a lockout.”
How teams approach it should be interesting. Will any use the lockout as an excuse to trim staff? Could there be furloughs? How will teams sell advertising with the threat of games lost? Will season-ticket holders try to back out of agreements?
What would a lockout do to free agency?
Just look at what the threat of one has done already. Players are grabbing money where they can. If a lockout lasts for months and it’s the eve of spring training and players start hunting for jobs, there will be a frenzy of signings — potentially hundreds of players looking for jobs on the eve of the season.
Is anyone allowed to sign during a lockout?
Yes. All players who were not on a major league roster last season or are not currently among the 1,200 players in the union. Minor league deals can be struck and trades among minor leaguers made, but it’s not like teams can sign an elite free agent to a minor league deal with massive bonuses that in normal times would’ve been their salaries. Beyond the whole on-the-roster-last-year issues, there’s a cap on the ceiling of non-roster invitee: $4 million.
What’s the immediate consequence?
An influx of lower- and midlevel players will go to Japan because they don’t want to be at the mercy of the negotiations. Under typical circumstances, a player might hope to snag a non-roster invitation in late January or early February. That same player is far likelier to pursue options in Japan than he would be in a standard year.
What about for guys whose names I know?
Barring a drastic change, Carlos Correa, considered by many the top player in this free-agent class, will not sign before the CBA expires. Same goes for Robbie Ray, the reigning American League Cy Young winner. Freddie Freeman and Trevor Story may wait, too. Clayton Kershaw isn’t signing anywhere yet.
There will be a run on free agents over the next 24 hours or so. Scherzer is likely to move. Shortstop Corey Seager may go as well. Some relievers will sign. Other lower-level free agents want to lock in contracts.
And it’s the next 24 hours with reason. For a contract to be official, players will need to undergo physicals. While it’s possible a team could come to an agreement with a player Tuesday and fly him in Wednesday to beat the deadline, teams are leery of rushing medicals.
What does the market so far say about free agency?
For all of the consternation from players, so far it’s been pretty, pretty good. Teams have guaranteed more than $850 million to free agents — and that’s without Correa, Seager, Scherzer, Freeman, Ray, Story, Baez, Kershaw, Kris Bryant, Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, Raisel Iglesias, Kenley Jansen, Michael Conforto, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman, Chris Taylor, Seiya Suzuki and plenty more.
The free-agent class of 2021-22 will easily eclipse $2 billion guaranteed. It’s likely to exceed the $2.1 billion shelled out in the 2019-20 winter. In the next day alone, Scherzer should smash Cole’s record average annual value of $36 million and Seager could eclipse $300 million or set a position-player AAV record.
It’s tough to argue free agency has been irreparably harmed when it’s enriching so many players.
Then what’s the problem?
The union represents 1,200 players, and only a fraction of them will get the six years of service time necessary to cash in on free agency. Which makes it counterintuitive that the union places such an extreme priority on free agency.
The truth is far more complicated. Free agency has been the focal point of the union since its inception. Healthy free agency equals a healthy union. Even though most players don’t log enough service time to reach it, every player dreams on the idea that he’ll be one of the lucky few. That is enough to coalesce the players.
Free agency has been screwy in recent years on account of two factors: the snail’s pace at which it moves and the shrinking middle class for veterans, particularly those in their 30s. The latter may be a lost cause. The former, though, seems to have stumbled upon a potential solution.
MLB in 2019 proposed a deadline for players signing multiyear deals. The union rejected it out of fear that teams simply would wait out the deadline and force those on the cusp to accept one-year deals. While there isn’t an official deadline, players and teams are treating Dec. 2 as an artificial one. And it has spawned an active and interesting November, something that in recent years simply didn’t exist.
The problem, of course, is that players don’t know what the post-lockout period is going to look like. Perhaps there is a squeeze on the players looking for jobs that significantly changes the market. Accordingly, the union could side-eye any proposal that bifurcates free agency in any fashion. And yet nobody can argue with what free agency in November 2021 has been: Awesome, by all accounts.
Are you sure that awesomeness is going to last?
Well — no. Nov. 30 is the tender deadline — the day by which teams must decide whether to offer contracts to players with less than six years of service. It’s like spring cleaning in the winter. And every player not tendered a contract immediately becomes a free agent.
So a market that’s already crowded will become even more so. And when the end of the lockout rolls around and all those free agents are looking for gigs, the feeling may be a whole lot different than the positivity about free agency that’s radiating these days.
So how much urgency is there to get a labor deal done and prevent the mad rush?
Both sides believe the other is suffering from a lack of urgency. The union contends MLB’s proposals haven’t been worthy of consideration. The league thinks its proposals have intended to address the concerns of the union. The sky is blue, the grass is green, MLB and the MLBPA talk past one another. It’s the circle of life.
Brass tacks time, Passan. When should I start getting worried?
Not yet. When you read the story on ESPN.com at midnight Thursday that says MLB has locked out the players, the instinct might be to panic, to fear that this is going to be a repeat of so many awful labor stoppages of the past, to say that baseball is broken and beyond repair.
And, by all means, if you want to be basic and misinformed, go ahead and push that narrative. The truth is, right now a lockout doesn’t affect you, the fan. It is a business doing business things.
Remember, businesses hate nothing more than losing money. And because that is an undefeated truism, it’s best to ask: When would teams start losing money? The answer is spring training. No spring training games equals less revenue. Less revenue directly affects teams. Teams making less revenue want to distribute less revenue to players. And players are damn sure not interested in putting themselves in a position to make less money.
They wouldn’t technically lose any if spring training were delayed — players get paid only during the six months of the regular season — but if revenue streams decrease, the offers from the league are likely to reflect that. And nobody wants that, because it could become a cudgel that gets more dangerous with time.
So, if you want a date on which to get worried, here it is: Feb. 1. If there is no progress by that point, that’s a problem. And if there’s no deal by March 1, then it’s perfectly logical to start panicking.
Until then, relax. Understand that the sky is not falling. Be sad that free agency and trades aren’t happening, sure, but don’t be the guy who says he’s never going to watch baseball again because these billionaires and millionaires are too greedy, and don’t be the gal who says baseball is being ruined. The game is a long way from that.
It’s healthiest to look at this as the game’s moment to set itself up for the future. Get a basic agreement that positions the game well for the future and don’t get in the way of Shohei Ohtani and the three Juniors and Juan Soto and Mike Trout and Bryce Harper and everything else that’s good about the game.
Sometimes, a reckoning is necessary. Baseball is facing its greatest challenge in a quarter-century, and even though there’s little hope right now, it can — and should — emerge stronger for it.