Raise your hand if, like me, you uttered something unprintable when you heard the reported terms of Marcus Semien‘s new contract and the team that had offered them. That’s what we call a knee-jerk reaction, which isn’t always rational or correct. Your real response is what you come up with after thinking through the factors involved. Often, then, you see a reason and a rhyme, even with surprising news.
For me, after thinking this deal through, I still think something mildly unprintable, but it’s a word that’s less severe than my knee-jerk phrase — and it comes with a slightly more positive connotation.
According to ESPN’s Jeff Passan, Semien and his representatives agreed to a seven-year, $175 million deal with the Texas Rangers. It’s the richest deal by far of this year’s free-agent season, matching the average annual value of Justin Verlander‘s deal with the Astros ($25 million) but for a half-decade longer.
In finding a new team, Semien becomes the second member of the long-anticipated shortstop free-agent class of 2021-22 to find a long-term home (the first being Francisco Lindor, who agreed to an extension with the Mets last season). Let’s consider that class with a few numbers from baseball-reference.com:
Here, it’s worth noting that Passan is also reporting that Semien is far from likely to be the last of the Rangers’ high-level free-agent targets, even among that shortstop class. Still, for now, we’ll look at how he fits as if he were the jewel of the Rangers’ winter push, and not just a jewel.
Semien is a great player coming off his second MVP-level season in three years, both sandwiched around a lackluster pandemic season of 2020. He has arguably been the most productive of the star-level shortstops, with much of his edge due as much to his durability as his fine production. Inarguably, he is the oldest of the group.
That last factor matters, because as the Rangers’ brain trust (Jon Daniels and Chris Young) obviously know, the worst mistake you can make in free agency is to pay someone for what they’ve already done rather than what they’re going to do. The success of this contract for Semien and the Rangers depends entirely on how the names on the above table stack up for 2022 and beyond, not the last three years, as is represented here.
For a reality check, here’s the deal that various prognosticators predicted Semien would get:
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Kiley McDaniel, ESPN: five years, $110 million
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Jim Bowden, The Athletic: five years, $148 million
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MLB Trade Rumors: six years, $138 million
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Ben Clemens, FanGraphs: four years, $120 million
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FanGraphs’ average from crowdsourcing: 4.55 years, $113.5 million
Clearly, any reaction of surprise was justified. The deal is longer than anyone predicted, though the $25 million average annual value is in line with expectation. Still, the length of the contract means that the total contract value blows away what was expected, a factor that should certainly catch the attention of suitors for the remaining star-level free agents.
On the other hand, one might make the observation that this is simply what things look like when you target the top of the free-agent market, especially if you’re a noncontender looking to create some legitimacy in your rebuilding effort. Happy Rangers fans might point out that just last winter, the Blue Jays gave George Springer, who was roughly the same age as Semien is now, a six-year, $150 million contract, and Springer doesn’t have Semien’s track record for durability.
For me, the concern is opportunity cost. That is: If you’re willing to give Semien this much money for this long, could you have gone to 10, 11 or 12 years and an even higher annual value for Carlos Correa or Seager? You’re still probably getting an upside-down back end of a contract, but at least you’d get more in-their-prime seasons, some of which would hopefully overlap with your team’s actual return to contention.
Last week, when I was suggesting bold moves for every team, my not-too-original recommendation for the Rangers was to sign one of the top free-agent shortstops. I didn’t get specific on whom they should target, but when I reeled off the possibilities, I left Semien off the list.
There are two reasons for that: Semien’s age, and the Rangers’ status as a noncontender, something that isn’t likely to change in 2022. It makes sense that Texas would want to make a splash, coming off a 102-loss season in its first full campaign at a new ballpark. But was this the right splash to make?
Maybe the conversations the Rangers had with elite shortstops indicated to them that this was the only splash they could make. If the question was, Semien or nothing? Semien becomes a no-brainer. And if they land another of the elite shortstops (see below), this concern becomes moot.
Beyond Semien’s age, everything else I wrote last week in support of splurging for a star shortstop stands. Semien, as an elite shortstop with the skill set to hit in a power slot of the batting order if you need him to, brings the Rangers’ building roster into focus. Isiah Kiner-Falefa can slide over to third base until prospect Josh Jung is ready (which might be in 2022), after which Kiner-Falefa can become a super utility player. Semien can slot into the middle of the infield next to the underrated Nick Solak.
And let’s not forget that Semien just won a Gold Glove playing second base in Toronto. The Rangers might want to keep him there, which they could do because of the versatility that both Kiner-Falefa and Solak offer to the mix. Obviously, Semien would become a keystone fixture if the Rangers really do land another of the free-agent shortstops. Texas has plenty of options because of Semien’s now-proven ability to play another position at a high level.
So really it all comes down to how much value, in production, Semien can be expected to retain now that he’s into his 30s. It’s a fair question — as good as he was in 2019 and 2021, he’s been below league average at the plate in every other season.
This concern is mild for the near term, as Semien simply looks like a hardworking player who has pushed his game to a higher, sustainable level. There’s nothing under the hood to suggest that his numbers are a product of excessive luck or his home ballparks. He’s just gotten better.
But Semien is 31 years old and a middle infielder, and the possibility that he ebbs into mediocrity sooner than later is more acute than it would have been with any of the other top free-agent shortstops.
There are two ways for the Rangers to come out golden on this signing. The first is for Semien to remain at this level for at least the next four or five years. The other is for Texas to jump back into contention sooner than expected, making the most of Semien in the early years of his contract — and the Rangers seem intent on spending the dough to make that happen.
However it comes out, we know this: The Rangers are a better team today with Semien than the one that ended the 2021 season. And if they overpaid a little to jump forward in their rebuild, who’s to say (with or without foul language) they were wrong in doing it? Especially if this proves to be just the first step down a very bold — and expensive — path.