In a span of two seasons, Kevin Gausman has gone from the waiver wire to a nine-figure pitcher. The veteran right-hander, coming off a career season when he went 14-6 with a 2.81 ERA for the Giants and finished sixth in the National League Cy Young voting, is heading to the Toronto Blue Jays on a five-year, $110 million deal.
So the pitcher who used Pink Floyd’s “Money” as his warm-up song in 2021 — “I just think it’s such a cool intro, with the cash register. It just fires me up every time I hear it,” Gausman said during the season — did indeed get that register to ring. Gausman’s contract comes right in line with the forecasts, as Kiley McDaniel predicted a five-year, $105 million deal.
It’s the second-biggest free-agent contract in Blue Jays history, behind only the $125 million given to George Springer last offseason. The Blue Jays can breathe a big sigh of relief after losing Marcus Semien in free agency to the Rangers earlier on Sunday and with American League Cy Young winner Robbie Ray still out there in free agency.
We’ll get back to Ray in a moment, but bringing in Gausman in combination with the seven-year, $131 million extension given to Jose Berrios earlier this offseason, the Blue Jays have locked up what should be a stellar rotation for the foreseeable future:
1. Berrios: signed through 2028
2. Gausman: signed through 2026
3. Hyun-Jin Ryu: signed through 2023
4. Alek Manoah: under team control through 2027 (assuming service time rules don’t change in a new collective bargaining agreement)
That’s as good a top four as there is in baseball, even if Berrios and Gausman are more strong No. 2s rather than aces — although Gausman pitched at an ace level in 2021 and Manoah has No. 1 potential based on a strong rookie season. The Blue Jays are still hopeful that Nate Pearson will stay healthy and put it all together, creating a fearsome fivesome. Even if Ross Stripling or Trevor Richards end up taking most of the starts at the back of the rotation, it’s a great foundation alongside the powerful young offense for getting the Blue Jays back into the postseason for the first time in a full season since 2016.
There are two primary reasons to like this deal: First, Gausman went to the San Francisco pitching factory, which has done wonders the past two seasons with him and others, and put together two superb seasons. Among pitchers with at least 175 innings over the past two seasons, Gausman ranks ninth in strikeout rate, ninth in batting average allowed, ninth in OBP allowed, tied for third in FIP (fielding independent pitching) and tied for 21st in home run rate.
The numbers back up what the eyes suggest: This is an improved pitcher from his Orioles days, when he could never quite live up the hype of being the No. 4 overall pick (out of LSU) as he went 39-51 with a 4.22 ERA (and those weren’t all bad Orioles teams). There’s an obvious reason here for the uptick, aside from leaving Camden Yards: He’s throwing his splitter more. With the Orioles he was more of a four-seamer/slider/splitter guy — throwing both his four-seamer and his slider more than he did with the Giants. Compare his pitch usage for 2017, his final full season with the Orioles, to 2021:
2017: fastball 63.9%, splitter 20.6%, slider 13.9%, changeup 1.2%
2021: fastball 52.7%, splitter 35.3%, changeup 6.0%, slider 5.9%
Batters hit just .133 with a .224 slugging percentage off Gausman’s splitter in 2021. Given how much he threw it, it was one of the most valuable pitches in the sport. It’s difficult for a starter to rely primarily on two pitches, but Gausman’s splitter is so good he makes it work.
The other reason to like the signing is Gausman comes with a relatively clean bill of health. Since 2016, he has made 30, 34, 31, 17, 10 (COVID-19 season) and 33 starts, and the main reason he made only 17 starts in 2019 was he pitched out of the bullpen for the Reds after the Braves waived him. He did miss a couple of starts in September 2020 with elbow tightness, but didn’t miss a start in 2021.
Now, for the less optimistic side of things, Gausman was nowhere near as good in the second half of 2021, posting a 4.42 ERA over 15 starts. It’s worth noting that Logan Webb, not Gausman, started Game 1 of the playoffs for the Giants. Gausman also goes from a pitcher-friendly park to a hitters’ park in a better hitting division. He allowed 13 of his 20 home runs in 2021 on the road, so while he’s not especially gopher-ball-prone, let’s see how that plays out in Toronto.
Gausman replaces Ray in the Blue Jays’ rotation, which raises the question: Who would you rather have over the next five seasons? They’re pretty similar, other than Ray being left-handed. Both hit a career crisis in the not-so-recent past (Gausman in 2019, Ray in 2020). Both have been durable and free of any major arm injuries. They’re about the same age (Ray is nine months younger). My feeling is Ray has a little higher ceiling moving forward, but comes with a bigger risk if his control problems suddenly reoccur. Gausman is safer with a higher floor, but leaving San Francisco will be a big test. Ray should end up with a similar contract (McDaniel predicted four years, $76 million, but the early returns in free agency suggest Ray will get more), but I do believe 2021 was a true breakout for him, so he gets my slight edge.
As for the Giants, it’s obviously a big loss, even though they re-signed Anthony DeSclafani and are finalizing a two-year deal with Alex Wood to return as well. It will be interesting to see whether they turn their sights to Ray — especially if Max Scherzer ends up with the Mets, the hot rumor as of this writing. Marcus Stroman, Carlos Rodon and Clayton Kershaw (!) are next in line, but Rodon comes with injury concerns and could we really see Kershaw in a Giants uniform? Under Farhan Zaidi, pitching coach Andrew Bailey and pitching coordinator Brian Bannister, however, the Giants have shown they can get the best out of down-on-their-luck veterans or injury comebacks, so maybe they go that route and focus their big money on re-signing Kris Bryant.
The Blue Jays aren’t done, either. With Semien gone, they need a second baseman or third baseman and they’ll be looking to add bullpen help. Given the way the frenzied free-agent market is going leading up to the potential lockout on the eve of Dec. 1, they may need to act fast.