For his first 24 games of 2021, Byron Buxton was the best baseball player on the planet. He hit for average. He hit home runs. He hit doubles. He stole some bases. He played center field like Hermes, only in cleats instead of winged sandals. He hit .370/.408/.772 with nine home runs, 10 doubles and five stolen bases. He led all hitters in slugging percentage and trailed only Mike Trout in OPS.
This was the ceiling we had longed dreamed of for Buxton, who at his best is the most dynamic player in baseball this side of Shohei Ohtani: a combination of power, speed and defense that would make him a modern-day Willie Mays or Ken Griffey Jr.
Of course, it’s unfair to compare anybody to those two, and it was unfair to expect Buxton to keep hitting at that level. But sadly, we don’t even know how close he would have come, because once again the injury bug wrecked Buxton’s season. On May 7, he went on the injured list with a hip strain, suffered while running to first base on a groundout. He returned on June 19, and in his third game back, he suffered a fracture in his left hand when Reds pitcher Tyler Mahle hit him with a 94-mph fastball.
“This isn’t fair,” Twins manager Rocco Baldelli said after the game.
Buxton returned in late August, his hand still sore, and hit .258 over his final 34 games. He finished the season at .306/.358/.647 in 254 plate appearances. That, plus his spectacular defense, meant that, even in just 61 games, he was worth an astounding 4.5 WAR — tied for 32nd among major league position players, better than Jose Altuve or Mookie Betts or Nolan Arenada or Rafael Devers, who featured in many more games.
It’s because of those glimpses that the Twins continue to dream big on Buxton. With one season left until he was eligible for free agency, there had been trade rumors involving the 27-year-old center fielder, especially with the Twins coming off a disappointing 73-89 season. Instead the two sides have agreed to a seven-year, $100 million contract – with MVP bonuses and playing time escalators that could make the total value much higher:
Buxton’s deal, as @Ken_Rosenthal said, is for seven years and $100M and, as @feinsand reported, includes a full no-trade clause. The MVP bonuses for Buxton are significant: 1st gets him $8M, 2nd $7M, 3rd $6M, 4th $5M, 5th $4M, 6th-10th $3M. Up to $2.5M/year in PA bonuses, too.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) November 28, 2021
The simple analysis is this is a great deal for both Buxton and the Twins. Buxton, despite playing 100 games in a season just once in his career, gets a nine-figure guarantee. And if he remains healthy and plays at an MVP level — as he did for those 61 games in 2021 — the Twins get one of the best all-around players in the game at a discount.
But that, of course, is the $100 million dollar question. Can Buxton ever stay healthy? Here’s how his injury woes have played out since his debut in 2015:
2015: Debuted in June but missed two months with a sprained left thumb (118 games played between the majors and minors).
2016: Missed time with a knee contusion and back spasms (141 games between the majors and minors).
2017: Buxton missed a few games with migraines and a groin strain, but played 140 games for the Twins and won the Platinum Glove as MLB’s top defensive player.
2018: Between a fractured toe, strained wrist and more migraines, Buxton played only 64 games, just 28 in the majors.
2019: Early in the season, Buxton suffered a bruised wrist and concussion symptoms. His year ended in early September after he crashed into a wall, needing shoulder surgery. He played 87 games.
2020: Missed the beginning of the season with a foot sprain and the end after getting hit in the helmet and suffering more concussion-like symptoms. Played 39 of the Twins’ 60 games.
2021: Suffered hip and hamstring issues and then the broken hand. Played 61 games, plus seven rehab appearances in the minors.
That’s a long list, and it’s fair at this point to question whether Buxton’s body can withstand the rigors of playing baseball every day. To be fair, there’s also been some bad luck in there, with the hand fracture and getting hit in the head.
The good news is, despite the injuries, Buxton hasn’t lost any of this top-shelf athleticism. His sprint speed ranked in the 99th percentile of all players in 2021, his max exit velocity at the 96th percentile, and his range in center is still outstanding. If anything, he’s gotten stronger through the years, as evidenced by not just his improved exit velocity, but his rate of home runs: Once every 32.9 at-bats through 2019, but once every 11.4 at-bats the past two seasons (over the past two seasons, that’s the best rate among players with at least 300 at-bats). Eleven of his 19 home runs in 2021 went 420-plus feet, including three 450-foot blasts. It’s 40-homer potential if he can stay on the field. (He does have one major flaw: He rarely walks, so he’s never going to be a great on-base guy.)
So, yes, for $100 million, this is absolutely a worthy gamble for Twins. And, yes, a big risk. I’ve been trying to think of a similar position player with superstar potential who was injured often early in his career and then did a better job of staying on the field as he got older. Maybe there is one out there, but I can’t think of one. Even players you think of as injury-prone were healthier than you remember. Eric Davis, like Buxton a dynamic power-speed center fielder, averaged 131 games per season from 1986 to 1990 (his age-24 to age-28 seasons). His injury problems came later on. Larry Walker missed a lot of games, but still had five 100-game seasons (and four of 130-plus) through his age-27 season.
Let’s hope then that Buxton turns into a historically unique player — because we’d love to get to see him play about 1,000 games over the next seven years.