Two offseasons ago, the coronavirus pandemic created one of the quietest coaching carousels we’ve seen in a long time. Only one power conference program (Wake Forest) changed coaches. At the outset of last season, some in the industry wondered whether we might see a continuation of that trend, with few changes and teams hesitant to pay big money for buyouts and hires in a college sports environment were resources had become strained.
That certainly wasn’t the case.
Fourteen jobs in the top seven leagues changed hands, and while not all 14 openings came as a result of the school firing its head coach, there were nonetheless more vacancies than expected.
What does that mean for the 2022 coaching carousel? It could be a bit slower than last spring. For one, we’re not walking into a season with two jobs already open like we did last season with Penn State and Wichita State. Two, some of the jobs that opened last spring came perhaps a year earlier than expected.
There will undoubtedly be some surprises along the way, though, so this list will look awfully different in five months.
ACC
The hottest seat in the ACC is unlikely to result in an actual firing, as Miami‘s Jim Larranaga is 72 years old and would likely step down if it came down to such a decision. But the Hurricanes have missed the NCAA tournament in three straight seasons, going a combined 16-41 in the ACC over that stretch. They were crushed by injuries last season, but they have to avoid a repeat of 2020-21 regardless of the circumstances. There’s enough talent in Coral Gables to make a push toward the top half of the league. Larranaga has two years left on his deal after this season.
Notre Dame‘s Mike Brey had to answer questions multiple times down the stretch of last season on whether he would be back in South Bend. The Fighting Irish should be better this season (I have them going to the NCAA tournament), but they have also gone four years without an NCAA tournament appearance. Like Larranaga, this would be a retirement more than a firing. Last month at ACC media day, I asked Brey about last spring’s retirement rumors. “I’m nowhere near that,” he told me. “I’m 62, got good juice. This contract goes until 2025 … We gotta keep swinging.”
Three other jobs with perceived pressure — Clemson, Louisville and Pittsburgh — don’t reach hot-seat status for me. Brad Brownell made the NCAA tournament last season and signed a contract extension in early October through 2026. While Chris Mack had a tumultuous offseason, Louisville has an NCAA tournament-caliber team and he has an eight-figure buyout. Meanwhile, it’s only year four for Jeff Capel and he’s signed through 2027 at Pittsburgh.
American
Despite a 24-win campaign in 2018-19, Brian Gregory has struggled during most of his time at South Florida. The Bulls went just 4-10 in conference play last season and then saw their top four scorers leave via the transfer portal. Gregory’s buyout is reportedly very low, too.
East Carolina is a job that has popped up in conversations with industry sources. It’s only Joe Dooley’s fourth season at the helm, but the Pirates have really struggled, going 10-38 in league play over the past three seasons. They’re projected to finish near the bottom of the league again this season. He’ll have one more year left on his contract after this season.
SMU‘s Tim Jankovich was on the hot seat entering last season, but the Mustangs were heavily impacted by COVID-19 issues late in the campaign, ending their hopes at an at-large bid. There’s enough talent on the roster to hear their name on Selection Sunday this season. If they live up to expectations, Jankovich should be fine — although his contract expires at the end of the campaign and this will be a highly sought-after job whenever it opens.
Despite appearing annually on hot-seat lists, Frank Haith’s recent performance doesn’t seem enough to warrant his inclusion. Tulsa won a share of the AAC regular-season title in 2020, and despite inconsistency in 2020-21, it swept Memphis and beat Houston last season.
Big East
Nothing much to see here. Georgetown made the NCAA tournament last season, relieving any sort of perceived pressure on Patrick Ewing, and Travis Steele looks like he has the type of team to get to his first NCAA tournament as the head coach at Xavier .
Big Ten
Northwestern looked like it was ready to take the next step last season, beating Michigan State, Indiana and Ohio State in a one-week span toward the end of December. The Wildcats then lost their next 13 games, and the seat under Chris Collins started heating up. Collins has been in Evanston since 2013, going to the NCAA tournament in 2017 — the first and only appearance in program history — but going a combined 19-58 in Big Ten play over the past four seasons. He’s signed through 2025. For what it’s worth, coaches around the league think Northwestern could be a team to make a push toward the top half of the standings this season.
And no, don’t ask about Maryland. Mark Turgeon has been to the NCAA tournament in six of the past seven seasons, won a share of the Big Ten title in 2020 and signed a contract extension in April that keeps him in College Park through 2026.
Big 12
Last December, it looked for all intents and purposes like Bruce Weber’s time at Kansas State was coming to a close. The Wildcats had just lost to Division II Fort Hays State, and the questions about Weber’s future were buzzing. And while they did lose 13 in a row at one point, they won four of six to end the season — and there’s some optimism in Manhattan for this season. Kansas State is a combined 20-41 over the past two seasons, after a three-year stretch that saw the Wildcats win a share of the Big 12 title, go to an Elite Eight and make three straight NCAA tournament appearances. Weber is under contract through 2023, but his buyout drops to $1 million in 2022 and then $500,000 the following season.
Jamie Dixon has had a couple of down seasons at TCU, but it’s too early to consider him on the hot seat. There has been an influx of talent to the Horned Frogs’ program via the transfer portal, he’s under contract until 2024, and he has also been pursued by other schools in the past few years, with UCLA the heavy hitter among the group.
Pac-12
After a promising first two seasons at Washington, it has gone south quickly for Mike Hopkins in the Pacific Northwest. The Huskies won 48 games in his first two years, including an NCAA tournament victory over North Carolina in 2019, but they’re just 9-29 in Pac-12 play over the past two seasons. They finished 5-21 overall in 2020-21. That has to improve if Hopkins is to get a sixth season in Seattle. Hopkins has a fully guaranteed contract through 2025, meaning the school would owe him more than $9 million if it were to let him go after this season.
Stanford is barely on the hot-seat radar, but it’s worth noting. The Cardinal have yet to go to the NCAA tournament in Jerod Haase’s five seasons at the helm, although last season had some of the toughest circumstances of any team in the country: The team was displaced for three-quarters of the season because of the pandemic. The school also hasn’t shown a quick trigger in the past and has a talented young core on the roster this season.
SEC
South Carolina looked like it could part ways with Frank Martin at the end of last season, but the Gamecocks would have owed him around $6 million and after paying football coach Will Muschamp nearly $13 million to leave three months earlier, the school decided against it. In fact, they ended up giving Martin an extension through 2025. Granted, the extension does bring Martin’s buyout down to the point where it can’t exceed $3 million. Martin took South Carolina to the Final Four in 2017 and has been consistently successful in SEC play, but he has been to only one NCAA tournament in nine seasons in Columbia. The Gamecocks finished 6-15 overall last season.
Georgia lost most of its key pieces from last season, and with P.J. Horne’s season-ending knee injury last month, the Bulldogs’ top returning scorer is Jaxon Etter, who averaged 2.4 points per game. That doesn’t bode well for Tom Crean, who enters year four without an NCAA tournament appearance in Athens. The Bulldogs are just 14-40 in SEC play under Crean, including a 5-13 showing with No. 1 overall draft pick Anthony Edwards two seasons ago. Crean’s buyout falls from $7.2 million to $3.2 million after the upcoming season.
Jerry Stackhouse made some waves at Vanderbilt last February, telling The Athletic: “They could fire me. But I ain’t giving money back.” But it’s only year three of his six-year contract and he has upgraded the talent level considerably entering this season. It’s too soon to talk hot seat.
Who’s up next?
There are four names expected to be near the top of most replacement lists come March and April: BYU’s Mark Pope, Colorado State’s Niko Medved, Cleveland State’s Dennis Gates and St. Bonaventure’s Mark Schmidt.
Pope is likely leaving only for premium jobs, but he has the name recognition, the recruiting track record and the résumé — at least 20 wins in each of the past four seasons and a 23-6 WCC record since joining BYU. Medved hasn’t been to the NCAA tournament yet, but that should change this season as the Rams are the Mountain West favorites after winning 20 games for the second straight season. Gates was linked to several jobs last spring, but stayed at Cleveland State. He led the Vikings to the NCAA tournament last season and has the high-major pedigree (he has been an assistant at Florida State and Cal) to get a better job quickly. Schmidt was mentioned in connection to a couple of openings last carousel, after leading the Bonnies to the NCAA tournament last season and a preseason top 25 spot this season.
Many of the East Coast names are veterans in coaching. Vermont’s John Becker was linked to Boston College and Penn State last spring; he has won five straight America East regular-season titles and been to three NCAA tournaments. VCU’s Mike Rhoades led the Rams to the NCAA tournament last season after winning 25 games and going to the dance in 2019 — but VCU is considered the best job of the league, so it might take a lot for Rhoades to leave. A couple of coaches at higher-academic schools, Yale’s James Jones and Colgate’s Matt Langel, are worth mentioning. Jones won at least a share of four of the past six regular-season titles, while Langel has been to two NCAA tournaments in the last three years with a Patriot League record of 38-10 during that stretch. A few other names to consider: Norfolk State’s Robert Jones, Siena’s Carm Maciariello and St. Peter’s Shaheen Holloway.
With the SEC and AAC having a few potential openings, there are several intriguing names in the South or Southeast. One coach who received significant offseason buzz from industry sources is Chattanooga’s Lamont Paris. The former Wisconsin assistant has won 38 games the past two seasons with the Mocs, and has the league favorite entering the season. Furman’s Bob Richey won 73 games his first three seasons with the Paladins, then finished near the top of the SoCon again last season. If he can get over the hump and into the NCAA tournament, he’ll receive attention. Casey Alexander has been highly successful at both Lipscomb and Belmont, including three straight regular-season titles and an NCAA tournament appearance in 2018. Ritchie McKay has led Liberty to three straight regular-season titles and three straight NCAA tournament appearances; he was connected to jobs last spring and should be again. One interesting name is Morehead State’s Preston Spradlin, one of the youngest coaches in the country at age 34. Spradlin, who got his coaching start under John Calipari at Kentucky, led the Eagles to the NCAA tournament last season. There’s also LeVelle Moton, who has had consistent success for years at North Carolina Central. A few other names in this region: South Alabama’s Richie Riley, Nicholls’ Austin Claunch, Eastern Kentucky’s A.W. Hamilton and Appalachian State’s Dustin Kerns.
Outside of Medved and Gates, there are several names that will be mentioned heavily for any jobs in the Midwest. Darian DeVries boosted his stock last season, as Drake won its first 18 games of the season and then beat Wichita State in the First Four of the NCAA tournament. The Bulldogs should be the favorites in the Missouri Valley this season. Wright State’s Scott Nagy has won at least a share of the Horizon League title in three straight seasons and won at least 19 games in 11 straight seasons. Three key names from the Missouri Valley are Northern Iowa’s Ben Jacobson, Bradley’s Brian Wardle and Missouri State’s Dana Ford.
Expect to see North Texas boss Grant McCasland near the top of some lists come the spring. He spent several years under Scott Drew at Baylor, then led Arkansas State to 20 wins in 2016-17 before joining North Texas — where he ripped off three straight 20-win seasons and then beat Purdue in the first round of last season’s NCAA tournament. It’s not hard to imagine Bryce Drew getting looks in March, after going to the NCAA tournament in his first season at Grand Canyon. He’s been to four NCAA tournaments in his nine seasons as head coach. Southern Utah’s Todd Simon, Stephen F. Austin’s Kyle Keller and South Dakota State’s Eric Henderson could also hear their names mentioned.
Out West, there are a few names worth keeping an eye on. Joe Pasternack has won at least 20 games in each of his four seasons at UC Santa Barbara, including an NCAA tournament appearance last season, and has high-major experience as an Arizona assistant. Travis DeCuire has been to two NCAA tournaments and won at least a share of three regular-season titles during his seven years at Montana. San Francisco’s Todd Golden and Loyola Marymount’s Stan Johnson are a pair of young coaches generating some buzz in the WCC. San Francisco struggled last season, but Golden won 22 games in his first season with the Dons and has developed a solid reputation. Meanwhile, Johnson had a terrific offseason on the recruiting trail, has high-major experience at Utah, Arizona State and Marquette, and has the Lions as a potential factor in the WCC.
After Indiana State went to the Division II ranks to hire Josh Schertz last spring, two guys to potentially make that jump could be Northwest Missouri State’s Ben McCollum and Point Loma’s Matt Logie. McCollum has been widely considered one of the best coaches in college basketball for several years, while Logie has been a consistent winner at multiple schools and was involved for at least one D-I job last spring. It doesn’t hurt that Point Loma just beat Pepperdine by 27 in an exhibition game last weekend.
And lastly, don’t forget about the former college coaches looking to get back in. John Beilein has been mentioned with several jobs over the past couple of years, including Indiana, but nothing has advanced to a serious stage. Thad Matta is also in that category. Then there’s a trio of coaches who were let go last season but could look to come back for a quick return: Archie Miller, Steve Wojciechowski and Steve Prohm. Another name would be Danny Manning, who was fired by Wake Forest two seasons ago but has returned to college basketball as an assistant coach at Maryland.