Two weeks ago, I released my updated 2021 SP+ rankings, but coming up with those rankings is only half of the battle. In order to maximize your view of the upcoming season, you also want to see the projections involved.
Below, you will find a data dump of win projections for each FBS conference including each team’s average overall and conference win totals, their odds of finishing with no more than one regular-season loss (for potential use in gauging national title hopes), and each club’s odds of reaching six-plus wins — a.k.a. bowl eligibility. I’m also including each team’s projected odds of covering/pushing on the current William Hill win futures.
Jump to a conference: SEC | Big Ten | Big 12 | Pac-12 | ACC | Independents | AAC | Sun Belt | MWC | MAC | C-USA
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses (only teams with odds at 0.5% or higher are listed): Alabama 48%, Georgia 32%, Texas A&M 18%, Florida 13%, Ole Miss 2%, Auburn 0.9%, LSU 0.8%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Alabama 100%, Georgia 99.9%, Texas A&M 99.7%, Florida 99.5%, Ole Miss 91, Auburn 89%, LSU 87%, Tennessee 86%, Kentucky 80%, Missouri 67%, Mississippi State 66%, Arkansas 48%, South Carolina 14%, Vanderbilt 9%
Most interesting teams (from a projections standpoint): Tennessee and LSU. Beyond the typical “bet the under on the top teams and the over on the bottom teams” odds that SP+ (and plenty of other metrics) tend to provide, the strongest odds that SP+ has to offer are picking Tennessee Over 6 and LSU Under 8.5.
Both projections strongly buck conventional wisdom. Tennessee had a chaotic coaching search (in light of a potential NCAA investigation) and throttled the transfer portal with guys coming in and out. Meanwhile, the general narrative assumption is that LSU will rebound quite a bit from last year’s miserable title defense.
To be honest, it gives me “the willies” even thinking of putting money on either of those picks. But at the very least, let this serve as a reminder of two things: (1) Josh Heupel’s first Tennessee team has a pretty sturdy foundation of talent, despite all the turnover (especially if he actually hones in on a starting quarterback at some point), and (2) LSU still has a lot of questions to answer before a rebound can occur.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Ohio State 29%, Wisconsin 18%, Penn State 7%, Iowa 4%, Michigan 3%, Minnesota 3%, Indiana 0.5%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Ohio State 99.9%, Wisconsin 99.5%, Penn State 98%, Iowa 96%, Minnesota 94%, Michigan 94%, Indiana 80%, Nebraska 74%, Maryland 66%, Michigan State 47%, Purdue 38%, Northwestern 36%, Illinois 18%, Rutgers 18%
Most interesting team: Northwestern. Pat Fitzgerald’s Wildcats don’t always get along all that well with SP+. Their ability to win one-score games with more frequency than most teams always seems to give them an extra win or two above what SP+ envisions. I mean, they ranked 75th while going 10-3 in 2015. That said, here’s a reminder that they don’t always overachieve.
Northwestern has suffered four losing seasons over the last 10 years and went 3-9 just one full season ago in 2019. Plus, with what the Wildcats have to replace in 2021 — a particularly solid QB in Peyton Ramsey, 78% of last year’s receiving yards, three-quarters of a good secondary and retired defensive coordinator Mike Hankwitz — it might take one of Fitzgerald’s better coaching jobs to lug them to 7-5 or better, even with the customary dose of close-game magic.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Oklahoma 51%, Iowa State 16%, Texas 3%, Oklahoma State 2%, TCU 0.6%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Oklahoma 100%, Iowa State 99.7%, Texas 95%, Oklahoma State 92%, TCU 84%, Baylor 66%, WVU 61%, Kansas State 45%, Texas Tech 41%, Kansas 0.3%
Most interesting team: TCU. Gary Patterson’s Horned Frogs were a pretty popular pick in last week’s Big 12 Best Bets, and it’s not hard to see why. With two star freshmen seemingly clicking late last season, and a defense that is just about as good as ever, it’s clear that TCU has at least a chance of jumping back near the top of the conference. With +2000 conference title odds, laying down some “just in case money” makes sense.
The Frogs have still averaged just a 75.0 offensive SP+ ranking over the last three seasons, though, and with a top-30 strength of schedule there’s also a chance that they will remain stuck in .500-ville. I’m not sure I’d be surprised by anything between 5-7 and 11-1 in 2021.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Washington 19%, USC 13%, Oregon 8%, Utah 6%, Arizona State 6%, UCLA 1%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Washington 99.5%, USC 99%, Oregon 99%, Arizona State 98%, Utah 96%, UCLA 85%, Washington State 68%, California 59%, Oregon State 20%, Stanford 18%, Colorado 18%, Arizona 2%
Most interesting team: Stanford. Now, I’m not declaring Stanford interesting because SP+ and the line disagree. No, I’m declaring it because Vegas and SP+ are very much in agreement that the Cardinal are going to struggle. It’s a strange phenomenon for a team that has suffered just one losing season in the last 12 years and went 4-2 against an all-Pac-12 schedule just last year.
So what’s the story? After going 4-8 in 2019, the Cardinal indeed won four games in six 2020 tries, but only by a combined 10 points — and they lost to Oregon by 21 as well. They jumped from 88th to 60th in SP+, but now they rank 123rd in returning production. They will now face a top-15 schedule that features seven projected top-30 teams. Even a team that overachieves projections (currently sitting at No. 64) might struggle to be better than around 6-6.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Clemson 67%, North Carolina 22%, Miami 15%, Virginia Tech 2%, Louisville 0.8%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Clemson 100%, North Carolina 99.7%, Miami 99.6%, Virginia Tech 93%, Pitt 84%, Louisville 83%, Boston College 80%, NC State 78%, Wake Forest 62%, Virginia 58%, Florida State 56%, Georgia Tech 34%, Duke 9%, Syracuse 9%
Most interesting team: Virginia Tech. This is another “narratives vs. numbers” team. Justin Fuente appears to be on a bit of a hot seat after going just 19-18 over the last three years, but SP+ saw last year’s team as a particularly unlucky one.
Using my postgame win expectancy number — which tosses all the key, predictive stats from a game into the air and declares, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time” — SP+ saw the Hokies as more of a 7-4 team than 5-6 and jumped them to 27th overall. They lose star running back Khalil Herbert, but still return enough for a No. 33 projection. They’re projected to be underdogs in only three games and, with better bounces, have excellent odds of hitting seven-plus wins.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Liberty 6%, BYU 5%, Notre Dame 4%, Army 0.6%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Liberty 99%, BYU 96%, Notre Dame 95%, Army 88%, UConn 0.9%, UMass 0.6%, NMSU 0.1%
Most interesting team: Notre Dame. Heading into last year’s ACC Championship game, Brian Kelly’s Fighting Irish ranked No. 4 in SP+. Unfortunately, dismal performances against Clemson, and then Alabama in the CFP, dropped them to 16th. They lost those games by a combined 41 points, but SP+ saw that as a best-case scenario, with the expected outcome being something closer to a combined 74-point deficit, on average. That, combined with a No. 125 ranking in returning production and a midseason run of games against opponents ranked sixth, 19th, 33rd, 14th and 11th, respectively, suggests this could be a bit of a down year in South Bend.
But what does “down” really mean for the Irish? Is an 8-4 record (or worse) really on the table for a team that has won double-digit games in five of the last six years? Is SP+ underestimating the Irish, just like Notre Dame fans always claim on Twitter? We shall certainly see.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Cincinnati 22%, UCF 10%, Memphis 5%, Houston 4%, SMU 1%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Cincinnati 99.7%, UCF 99%, Memphis 95%, Houston 95%, SMU 86%, Tulane 66%, Tulsa 60%, ECU 39%, Temple 27%, USF 10%, Navy 4%
Most interesting team: Temple. As I mentioned in the Group of 5 Best Bets, Temple collapsed under the weight of testing-and-tracing issues last year and bombed out to 1-6 and 105th in SP+. Because SP+ isn’t programmed to account for the amount of COVID-19 issues a team had, it projects the Owls to rank 105th again in 2021 — but still gives them excellent odds of winning more than three games against a pretty weak schedule. If last year’s performance was artificially poor, this feels like one of the safest bets on the board.
If you actually watched Temple last year, however, betting on the Owls to win ANY games feels like a dicey proposition. It was dire.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Coastal Carolina 32%, Louisiana 18%, Appalachian State 6%, Troy 1%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Coastal Carolina 99.9%, Louisiana 99.5%, Appalachian State 98%, Troy 87%, Georgia State 57%, Georgia Southern 43%, Arkansas State 28%, South Alabama 15%, Texas State 9%, ULM 1%
Most interesting team: Troy. The Trojans were picked last in the Sun Belt East by local media this year, and I have to say I’m confused. They lost four one-score games in 2020, including a wild 42-38 slugfest against suddenly-mighty Coastal Carolina. They finished a healthy 72nd in SP+ and now return about 19-20 starters. They should obviously still be behind Coastal and App State in the East’s pecking order, but SP+ sees them as a clear No. 3 in the division.
That said, they had better win their winnable early games. They’re projected as favorites in six of their first seven games — including their October 2 trip to South Carolina, if you’re wondering what SP+ thinks of the Gamecocks — but only in one of their last four contests.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Boise State 4%, Wyoming 4%, San Diego State 2%, Nevada 2%, San Jose State 0.6%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Boise State 96%, Wyoming 94%, SDSU 92%, Nevada 91%, Hawaii 82%, SJSU 82%, Fresno State 75%, Air Force 75%, Colorado State 52%, New Mexico 26%, Utah State 25%, UNLV 3%
Most interesting team: Utah State. Re-hiring Gary Andersen was a bad idea from the start. Within two years, the Aggies had fallen from 11-2 and 21st in SP+ to 1-5 and 118th. In that sense, starting them at 3.5 wins in replacement Blake Anderson’s first season makes sense. Then again, the schedule is weak and Anderson loaded up on enough transfers — including a few from his previous job at Arkansas State — to give them a decent shot at a rebound.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Toledo 5%, Buffalo 1%, Ohio 1%, Western Michigan 0.8%
Odds of at least 6 wins: Toledo 98%, Buffalo 90%, WMU 87%, Ohio 86%, Ball State 77%, EMU 72%, CMU 71%, Miami (Ohio) 52%, Kent State 38%, NIU 14%, Akron 3%, BGSU 3%
Most interesting team: Western Michigan. Like Troy, WMU is in the “what am I missing here?” camp. The Broncos haven’t finished with a losing record since 2013, jumped from 90th to 62nd in SP+ last year, and return most of what could easily be a top-50 offense this fall. They’re projected as favorites in nine games, and SP+ gives them better odds of going 9-3 or better than finishing below a 6-win over/under line that should be at least one win higher.
Odds of finishing with 0-1 losses: Marshall 3%, FAU 3%, UTSA 2%, UAB 1%
Odds of at least 6 wins: FAU 96%, Marshall 94%, UTSA 91%, UAB 88%, Southern Miss 67%, FIU 64%, WKU 47%, MTSU 43%, North Texas 40%, Charlotte 39%, Rice 37%, Louisiana Tech 36%, UTEP 17%, ODU 2%
Most interesting team: Old Dominion. ODU is projected 128th overall, and I understand why. The Monarchs fell to No. 125 in SP+ while going 1-11 in 2019, changed coaches, and then didn’t play any games last fall. They return a respectable amount of 2019’s production, all things considered, but they’re still seemingly starting from scratch this fall. However, I like the job new coach Ricky Rahne has done in upgrading the talent level — both in decent recruiting and with use of the transfer portal — so I can’t necessarily co-sign on betting the Under here. We’ll see.