Bill Connelly’s mega offseason previews: Can anyone stop Alabama in SEC West?

National titles since 2009: SEC West 8, everyone else in FBS 4.

It’s pretty jarring when you think about it. Dabo Swinney’s Clemson is as close to Bobby Bowden’s record of consecutive top-five finishes as anyone has been. Ohio State is dominating the Big Ten and recruiting at a near Alabama level. Georgia has the recruiting part down and nearly won the title in 2017. There are a lot of potential Death Stars hovering at the moment, but more often than not, college football’s biggest prize goes through one division.

Alabama obviously leads the way with six titles in that span, but this hasn’t been just a one-horse town. When the Tide have slipped, others have picked up the slack. Their two worst seasons in this span came in 2010 and 2019, when Cam Newton‘s Auburn and Joe Burrow‘s LSU, respectively, took the crown.

The West is at its best, however, when Bama has competition. That was not the case in 2020, when the division’s only other ranked team, Texas A&M, fell by 28 points in Tuscaloosa. LSU fell deeply into a hangover, Ole Miss played well on only one side of the ball, Mississippi State stuttered under Mike Leach and Auburn suffered its worst season under Gus Malzahn (and promptly fired him).

How much will this change this fall? Bama could take at least a slight step backward following the loss of a particularly otherworldly set of talent to the NFL, but is Texas A&M ready to make a more serious challenge? How much will LSU bounce back after the worst title defense in 70 years? Can Ole Miss actually defend? The West is all but guaranteed to be the best division in college football on average, if only because Bama’s numbers count in said average. But how close will it get to the best version of itself?

Let’s preview the SEC West!

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 130 FBS teams. The previews will include 2020 breakdowns, 2021 previews and a brief history of each team in one handy chart. The series has thus far covered the Conference USA East and West, the MAC East and West, the MWC Mountain and West, the Sun Belt West and East, the top and bottom half of the AAC, the seven Independents, the ACC Atlantic and Coastal, the Pac-12 North and South, the top and bottom half of the Big 12, the Big Ten West and East and the SEC East.

Jump to a team: Mississippi State | Arkansas | Auburn | LSU | Ole Miss | Texas A&M | Alabama

MSU averaged 37 points per game in four wins and 13 in seven losses in Mike Leach’s first season. Stability and predictability are overrated.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 44th

Average projected wins: 6.3 (3.3 in the SEC)

• Likely wins*: Tennessee State (99%), Louisiana Tech (93%), at Vanderbilt (86%)

• Relative toss-ups: Kentucky (63%), NC State (56%), at Memphis (51%), at Arkansas (43%), LSU (41%), Ole Miss (40%)

• Likely losses: at Auburn (31%), at Texas A&M (19%), Alabama (12%)

* Likely wins are games in which SP+ projects the scoring margin to be greater than seven points, or above about 65% win probability. Likely losses are the opposite, and relative toss-ups are all the games in between.

Every conference has a couple of “six relative toss-up” teams. The Bulldogs are one of two in the West — both 3-9 and 9-3 are on the table in Starkville.

What we learned about Mississippi State in 2020

The Air Raid isn’t plug-and-play. In his first year at Washington State, Leach oversaw regression — from four wins to three and from 51st to 88th in offensive SP+. The next season, the Cougars jumped to 41st in offensive SP+ and scored 10.6 additional points per game.

Even a well-defined system like Leach’s Air Raid requires a breaking-in period. We forgot that when MSU was torching LSU for 632 yards and 44 points in the 2020 opener, but then the Bulldogs scored a combined 30 points over the next four games. Freshmen led the way at quarterback (Will Rogers), RB (Jo’quavious Marks and Dillon Johnson) and wide receiver (Jaden Walley), and four freshman or sophomore offensive linemen saw 200-plus snaps — of course the offense was going to stutter.

Rogers was excellent against Ole Miss and Missouri late in 2020, and Walley had four consecutive 100-yard games. Was that a sign of things to come? Will Rogers fend off Southern Miss transfer Jack Abraham for the starting job? Will the addition of transfer WRs Jamire Calvin (Wazzu) and Makai Polk (Cal) provide a boost?

What we didn’t learn about Mississippi State in 2020

Was the defensive improvement a sign of things to come? Leach made a creative and exciting coordinator hire when he brought in SDSU’s Zach Arnett to run a version of the Rocky Long 3-3-5, and after tumbling from first to 70th in defensive SP+ in 2019, the Bulldogs rebounded to 49th. They defended the run well and dominated in the red zone, which offset the fact that they blitzed a lot but only sometimes got to the QB (62nd in sack rate).

Linebacker Aaron Brule is a keeper, and corners Martin Emerson and Emmanuel Forbes win plenty of battles, but further improvement will require more pass pressure, especially if the run defense slips with the loss of two of last year’s top three linemen.

Mississippi State’s history in one chart

1. After a strong run in the war years, MSU’s only ranked finish between 1942 and 1974 came when future No. 3 pick Billy Stacy led a 6-2-1 campaign in 1957.

2. Billy Jackson: one of the SEC’s greatest pass-rushers. He recorded 17 sacks during MSU’s nine-win 1980 campaign and finished his career with 49.

3. The Jackie Sherrill era crashed under an NCAA cloud, but the peak — 26 wins from 1998 to 2000, a top-15 finish and the school’s lone West title — was solid.

4. Sylvester Croom became the first Black SEC head coach, succeeding Sherrill in 2004. He slogged through NCAA sanctions but set the table for excellent successor Dan Mullen.

5. Mullen’s peak came in 2014, when Dak Prescott threw for 3,449 yards and the Bulldogs ranked No. 1 in the inaugural CFP rankings. (They finished 10-3.)

In Sam Pittman’s first season at Arkansas, the Hogs ended a 20-game SEC losing streak, won three games and nearly won three more. Not bad after the hopelessness of 2019.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 41st

Average projected wins: 5.8 (2.8 in the SEC)

• Likely wins: UAPB (99%), Rice (88%), Georgia Southern (82%)

• Relative toss-ups: Missouri (65%), Mississippi State (57%), Auburn (44%), Texas (36%)

• Likely losses: at LSU (32%), at Ole Miss (31%), vs. Texas A&M (24%), at Georgia (15%), at Alabama (8%)

The Hogs could hit the SP+ top 50 for the first time since 2016, but a ridiculous road slate — of their six highest-projected opponents, only one comes to Fayetteville — will tamp down the win total.

What we learned about Arkansas in 2020

There’s fight again in Fayetteville. After the Hogs went winless in SEC play in 2018-19 (with blowout losses to North Texas and Western Kentucky, to boot), Pittman’s first step was to simply make Arkansas fiery again. Mission: accomplished. The Hogs couldn’t keep up with the best opponents — they lost to Georgia, Florida and Alabama by an average of 35 points — but they jumped from 108th to 57th in SP+. Kendal Briles’ offense improved from 105th to 54th, Barry Odom’s defense from 88th to 62nd.

Odom needs playmakers. Take minimal risks, prevent big plays, pounce on mistakes. It’s the Odom way, and it worked at times. Arkansas ranked 93rd in success rate allowed but 18th in explosive play rate and held half of its opponents to 30 or fewer points. But with no disruption potential up front, the Razorbacks got torched quite a bit. Arkansas is loaded with versatile linebackers like Grant Morgan and sturdy safeties like Jalen Catalon. But the ceiling will remain low until the line starts making plays. Adding Mizzou transfer Tre Williams helps, but only so much.

What we didn’t learn about Arkansas in 2020

Did we see enough of KJ Jefferson? Arkansas jumped to 30th in passing success rate thanks primarily to Feleipe Franks, who took too many sacks but completed 69% of his passes. Jefferson, a burly freshman, filled in against Missouri and landed some haymakers — 18 completions, 274 yards — but he completed only 49% of his passes for the season with a similarly high sack rate.

Slot man Treylon Burks is great, and while big-play receiver Mike Woods transferred to Oklahoma, senior De’Vion Warren was his statistical clone. RB Trelon Smith is efficient if not particularly explosive. But Arkansas’ bowl hopes hinge significantly on the potential that Jefferson showed in a single game.

Arkansas’ history in one chart

1. Frank Broyles arrived in 1958 and began a run of dominance in 1959: eight AP top-10 finishes, plus a claim of the 1964 national title, in 11 seasons.

2. Broyles retired in 1976, and his handpicked successor, Lou Holtz, immediately reestablished the Hogs’ bona fides with a 30-5-1 run from 1977 to 1979.

3. Arkansas left for the SEC in 1992 but didn’t become SEC until Houston Nutt’s memorable tenure: 10 years, three ranked finishes and 100% drama.

4. Bobby Petrino succeeded Nutt and ramped the drama up even further with a 21-5 run in 2010-11 and one of the most memorable firings ever.

5. Pittman took over when Arkansas was coming off of its worst performance since 1943. He has begun to restore order, but further improvement is obviously needed.

Only six teams have finished in the SP+ top 30 for each of the past eight years: Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Oklahoma, Wisconsin … and Auburn. Gus Malzahn couldn’t win enough to satisfy folks on the Plains, but he left a sneaky-high bar for successor Bryan Harsin.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 28th

Average projected wins: 7.0 (3.9 in the SEC)

• Likely wins: Alabama State (99.7%), Akron (98%), Georgia State (86%), at South Carolina (84%), Mississippi State (69%)

• Relative toss-ups: at Arkansas (57%), Ole Miss (54%), at LSU (43%)

• Likely losses: Georgia (33%), at Penn State (31%), at Texas A&M (30%), Alabama (21%)

Auburn routinely faces the toughest schedules in the SEC and adds a trip to Penn State into the mix as well. Quite the crash course for the 44-year-old Harsin.

What we learned about Auburn in 2020

Kevin Steele didn’t have all the answers. With Steele as coordinator, AU ranked sixth or better in defensive SP+ from 2017 to 2019. But with the offense flagging, defense couldn’t save the day in 2020. Auburn prevented big plays but couldn’t force opponents off-schedule and couldn’t rush the passer, which led to dreadful third-down numbers.

Harsin, Boise State’s longtime head coach, tried to make up for his lack of SEC experience by bringing in former SEC head coaches Mike Bobo (Georgia) as OC and Derek Mason (Vanderbilt) as DC. He also brought in transfers galore. Among them, Northwestern’s Eku Leota becomes AU’s most proven edge rusher, and West Virginia’s Dreshun Miller joins Roger McCreary and Nehemiah Pritchett to create an excellent cornerback trio. With known quantities like linebacker Owen Pappoe and safety Smoke Monday, there’s a lot to like here. But there are also a lot of sudden issues to fix.

What we didn’t learn about Auburn in 2020

Is Bo Nix really the guy? After a very freshman-like freshman performance in 2019, Nix was unable to generate a ton of improvement last fall. The schedule obviously did him no favors — AU played four of the 13 best defenses in the country and averaged 14.5 points per game against them (and 31.1 vs. everyone else) — but the Tigers ranked just 74th in passing success rate and 61st on passing downs. Nix scrambled pretty well but did it too often.

Bobo, who struggled to generate improvement at South Carolina last season, is tasked with either coaxing more consistency out of Nix or replacing him, perhaps with LSU transfer TJ Finley. Whoever’s behind center will be dealing with a brand-new receiving corps — last year’s top three WRs are all gone, and no returning wideout had double-digit catches.

The run game could be excellent: RB Tank Bigsby is one of the best in the conference, and a line led by center Nick Brahms is loaded with experience. But teams have to pass, too, and it’s not certain that Auburn will do well at that.

Auburn’s history in one chart

1. Auburn had won just five games in four years when Shug Jordan took over in 1951, but he engineered seven ranked finishes from 1953 to 1963 and won the 1957 national title.

2. Late in Jordan’s career, AU surged again with four seasons of nine or more wins, three top-10 finishes and a Heisman winner (Pat Sullivan) between 1970 and 1974.

3. Pat Dye’s Tigers nearly won the 1983 national title behind Bo Jackson, then dominated the SEC from 1986 to 1989, winning 39 games with four top-10 finishes.

4. Unbeaten seasons in 1993 and 2004 didn’t produce titles, but Cam Newton’s run in 2010 did. Newton won the Heisman, and 14-0 Auburn finally had its second ring.

5. Malzahn’s first year as head coach produced the Prayer at Jordan-Hare and the Kick Six. Auburn came within seconds of another national title. One of the most memorable seasons ever.

Injuries at quarterback and cornerback … awkwardly timed opt-outs … a new defensive coordinator hire that just didn’t click … did we actually learn anything about LSU last year? Ed Orgeron hopes not.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 26th

Average projected wins: 7.2 (3.9 in the SEC)

• Likely wins: ULM (99%), McNeese State (99%), Central Michigan (87%), Arkansas (68%), at Kentucky (67%)

• Relative toss-ups: at Mississippi State (59%), Auburn (57%), at Ole Miss (44%), at UCLA (42%), Texas A&M (41%), Florida (41%)

• Likely losses: at Alabama (14%)

The Tigers charged to the national title in 2019, then bombed to 45th in SP+ last fall. Splitting the difference and sticking them in the mid-20s makes sense, then, and makes LSU the West’s second “six relative toss-ups” team. Nothing the Tigers do, good or bad, will be particularly surprising.

What we learned about LSU in 2020

Poor hires will set you back. After losing two young, innovative assistants — passing game coordinator Joe Brady and defensive coordinator Dave Aranda — to bigger jobs, Orgeron replaced them not with a new set of innovators but with old hands Scott Linehan and Bo Pelini. Linehan was dealt a tough hand by QB shuffling, but Pelini’s defense was a disaster out of the gates. All-world cornerback Derek Stingley Jr. was rarely healthy, but communication errors and scheme issues beset the Tigers all season.

Combined with offensive coordinator Steve Ensminger’s retirement, Orgeron got a do-over, naming two recent NFL assistants — Jake Peetz on offense, Daronte Jones on defense — as his new coordinators. Maybe fresh, new ideas and better injury luck* will fix a lot of what ailed last year’s team.

*Admittedly, quarterback Myles Brennan suffering his second serious injury in 12 months isn’t a great start to the “better injury luck” thing.

What we didn’t learn about LSU in 2020

What ceilings is LSU working with here? Ten LSU products have been top-70 picks in one of the past two NFL drafts, including 2019 Heisman winner Joe Burrow, 2019 Biletnikoff winner Ja’Marr Chase and NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year Justin Jefferson. The amount of talent that Orgeron compiled for that title run was massive, and there’s nothing saying he can’t do it again.

We know he has a keeper in Kayshon Boutte. The freshman receiver became freshman quarterback Max Johnson‘s go-to and caught 27 balls for 527 yards in LSU’s last three games. Freshman corner Eli Ricks also held his own, and if Stingley is 100 percent in 2021, and some other high-upside pieces — former Clemson nickel linebacker Mike Jones Jr., defensive tackle Jaquelin Roy, RB Tyrion Davis-Price — shift up a gear, it’s not hard to see LSU having top-10 potential again.

The Tigers need a top-10 quarterback, too, though. Brennan’s injury means the job almost certainly goes to Johnson, who mostly struggled in 2020 but torched Ole Miss in the final game. Is he ready to lead the Tigers through a big load of tight games?

LSU’s history in one chart

1. After thriving with Y.A. Tittle at quarterback, LSU had fallen into a bit of a rut in the early 1950s. That changed when Paul Dietzel came aboard in 1955.

2. Dietzel engineered three top-four finishes from 1958 to 1961. The Tigers won the national title in 1958, and Billy Cannon rode the greatest punt return ever to the 1959 Heisman.

3. Oct. 8, 1988: LSU beat Auburn at the last second, and the Death Valley crowd erupted with such vigor that it registered on a local seismograph.

4. LSU had one top-five finish in nearly 40 years when it hired Michigan State’s Nick Saban in 2000. The Tigers won the BCS championship three years later.

5. Les Miles sustained Saban’s gains for a while and snared the 2007 title, then Orgeron took over in 2016. His past two seasons: both outliers in different ways.

No one had more fun going .500 last year than Lane Kiffin’s Rebels. If they want to have even more fun, the defense will have to improve.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 24th

Average projected wins: 7.6 (4.5 in the SEC)

• Likely wins: Austin Peay (98%), Vanderbilt (96%), Tulane (82%), Liberty (70%), Arkansas (69%), vs. Louisville (67%)

• Relative toss-ups: at Tennessee (64%), at Mississippi State (60%), LSU (56%), at Auburn (46%), Texas A&M (42%)

• Likely losses: at Alabama (15%)

The Rebels are projected as at least slight favorites in nine games and are heavy underdogs in only one. They aren’t that much defensive improvement away from a huge year.

What we learned about Ole Miss in 2020

A Kiffin offense is going to score. It says a lot that, upon deciding that the Alabama offense needed modernization in the mid-2010s, Nick Saban turned to Kiffin. He set Bama on a course toward offensive perfection, then took the FAU head-coaching job and immediately fielded the Owls’ three best offenses ever. In his first season at Ole Miss, he inherited some elite pieces and did elite things with them. Matt Corral threw for 3,337 yards and ranked third in FBS in Total QBR, Elijah Moore gained 1,193 receiving yards and went 34th in the NFL draft, a trio of RBs led by Jerrion Ealy rushed for 1,429 yards, and after stumbling to 68th in offensive SP+, the Rebs charged back to 14th.

Nine starters return, and while Moore’s gone, that loss could be alleviated somewhat by the addition of transfers Jalen Knox (Missouri), Jahcour Pearson (WKU) and Qua Davis (Itawamba CC). Corral is the perfect Kiffin QB: confident, accurate (71% completion rate) and always ready to hit a home run ball. The Rebels’ offense is projected to jump into the top 10, and it’s easy to understand why.

What we didn’t learn about Ole Miss in 2020

Did Kiffin make the right defensive hires? In their first year as co-coordinators, D.J. Durkin and Chris Partridge failed to generate traction. Ole Miss slipped from 42nd to 80th in defensive SP+, failing equally from an efficiency (122nd in success rate) and explosiveness (117th in explosive play rate) standpoint. The Rebels couldn’t slow down opposing run games, and while they wanted to play a lot of man coverage, they couldn’t do it very well. Safety AJ Finley and rush end Sam Williams were excellent, but they needed a lot more help.

Nine starters return, but new blood could be vital. Kiffin signed eight DBs in his 2021 recruiting class, plus Maryland linebacker Chance Campbell, two juco linemen and blue-chip tackle Tywone Malone. The talent obviously didn’t match the scheme last year, but we’ll see if the newbies help with that.

Ole Miss’ history in one chart

1. John Vaught’s tenure in Oxford — 13 seasons with eight or more wins, 13 top-15 finishes and a 39-3-1 run from 1959 to 1962 — transformed the program and put his name on the stadium.

2. Vaught’s Rebels surged one last time with Archie Manning behind center. He threw for 4,753 yards, rushed for 823 and finished in the Heisman top five in both 1969 and 1970.

3. Ole Miss labored in Vaught’s absence but showed promise under Tommy Tuberville … who left for Auburn two days after saying he’d never leave.

4. Tuberville’s replacement, David Cutcliffe, landed Eli Manning, who led the Rebels to within three points of the 2003 SEC West title and went No. 1 in the 2004 draft.

5. He flew too close to the sun for the NCAA’s liking, but Hugh Freeze engineered a ferocious peak: 10 wins, a No. 3 SP+ ranking and another West near-title in 2015.

It took a couple of years, but Jimbo Fisher has officially built expectations to match his massive salary. Can his Aggies live up to the increasing hype?

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: 13th

Average projected wins: 9.3 (5.5 in the SEC)

• Likely wins: Prairie View A&M (99.9% win probability), New Mexico (99%), Kent State (98%), South Carolina (95%), Mississippi State (81%), at Missouri (79%), at Colorado (76%), vs. Arkansas (76%), Auburn (70%)

• Relative toss-ups: at LSU (59%), at Ole Miss (58%)

• Likely losses: Alabama (34%)

With only one projected top-20 opponent on the schedule, it’s going to be a good year in College Station. A great one will require a new offensive line and quarterback to click quickly.

What we learned about Texas A&M in 2020

The RB room is elite. Isaiah Spiller rushed for 1,036 yards and averaged 3.5 yards after contact. The versatile Ainias Smith was the No. 2 RB and No. 2 receiver. Devon Achane showed his track-star speed against UNC in the Orange Bowl. They were running behind a star-studded line, which now has to replace four studs. If the line holds up, this is a top-10 run game.

The defense is about to be. Mike Elko immediately generated defensive improvement as coordinator in 2018, but his 2020 defense was his best yet. The Aggies had occasional big-play issues and struggled in the red zone, but they were excellent in the main tenets of defense: force long third downs, tee off on the QB, get off the field. They ranked 13th in defensive SP+, and with 14 of 16 players with 200-plus snaps returning, including potential all-SEC linemen DeMarvin Leal and Jayden Peevy, further improvement is conceivable.

What we didn’t learn about Texas A&M in 2020

Is one of two young QBs ready? Most teams looking to jump into the top five this year return their QB, but A&M doesn’t. Kellen Mond left a bar that is high but not necessarily impossible to clear, but the Aggies need someone to clear it. Haynes King fit a touchdown pass, interception and 22-yard run into his 16 snaps last season; his upside appears immense, but he’s young. So is big-armed Zach Calzada. If either plays at a high level, A&M will too.

Can Jimbo modernize a little? I expressed this concern in June’s Ifs List piece: “The Aggies were a patented ‘run on run downs, pass on pass downs’ offense last season, and they didn’t use many of the bells and whistles that have become staples for top offenses — motion, play-action, RPO action, etc.” It’s really hard to leap to the elite level without keeping up with the times.

Texas A&M’s history in one chart

1. One surefire way to energize a program: Hire Bear Bryant. His Ags went 9-0-1 in 1956, and climbed to No. 1 in 1957 before “Bryant to Bama?” rumors prompted a fizzled ending.

2. Before Fisher, A&M lured another coach to town with the sport’s biggest contract: Jackie Sherrill, who generated two top-10 finishes before NCAA sanctions took hold.

3. One of the era’s best defensive coaches, RC Slocum deftly guided A&M through sanctions: ​​From 1991 to 1994, A&M won 42 games with three top-10s and three SWC titles.

4. New coach Kevin Sumlin and new QB Johnny Manziel led A&M to a top-five finish, a classic win over Bama and a Manziel Heisman in the school’s first SEC season. Not bad.

5. After setting a high bar, Sumlin averaged only eight wins for his last five years in town. Enter Fisher, who has now won 14 of his past 17 games.

The scariest sentence in the English language: It appears Nick Saban’s Alabama program is still improving.

2021 Projections

Projected SP+ rank: First

Average projected wins: 10.2 (6.6 in the SEC)

• Likely wins: Charleston NMSU (99.9% win probability), Mercer (99.9%), Southern Miss (99.3%), Tennessee (94%), Arkansas (92%), at Mississippi State (88%), LSU (86%), Ole Miss (85%), at Auburn (79%), vs. Miami (68%), at Texas A&M (66%), at Florida (66%)

• Relative toss-ups: None

• Likely losses: None

A young Crimson Tide squad faces all three projected top-20 opponents away from Tuscaloosa, two in September. An early upset is conceivable … but this is still an elite team on paper.

What we learned about Alabama in 2020

No one turns more five-star recruits into five-star performers. Per SP+, the Tide fielded the best team of the Saban era (and maybe the best of all time), then saw eight players get selected in the first 40 picks of the NFL draft. That’s a lot of talent out the door, and we saw what could happen when LSU lost a similar amount of talent after 2019, but it’s hard to worry. The Tide have ranked in the SP+ top three for 12 straight years and have been No. 1 for four of the past five. They’re the surest thing in football.

The defense is still elite. The Tide’s defensive level has slipped slightly since they ranked first in defensive SP+ for four straight years (2014-17), but they return eight starters from a defense that ranked sixth in 2020. Christian Harris and Will Anderson Jr. are elite blitzers (Tennessee linebacker transfer Henry To’o To’o is pretty good at it, too), corner Josh Jobe allowed just a 16.3 QBR in coverage, the line is as experienced as it has been in a while, and, of course, a new batch of blue-chippers is on the way.

What we didn’t learn about Alabama in 2020

What will Bill O’Brien change? Saban has worked through plenty of offensive coordinators in recent years, but new Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian might have fielded the best offense ever last fall. With former Penn State and Houston Texans coach O’Brien taking the playcalling reins, what might he attempt in the name of further evolution?

Just how high is Bryce Young‘s ceiling? Young was the No. 1 QB in the 2020 recruiting class and brings both accuracy and a dose of running to the table. He’s going to be good at worst this fall, as will a supporting cast that includes receivers John Metchie III and Jameson Williams (an Ohio State transfer), RBs Brian Robinson Jr. and Jase McClellan, and the requisite blue-chippers. There’s almost nowhere to go but down after last year’s nearly perfect offense. Is Young’s upside enough to keep the Tide near the top of offensive SP+?

Alabama’s history in one chart

1. After Jennings “Ears” Whitworth went an unfathomable 4-24-2 in three seasons, Bama righted the ship by stealing Texas A&M’s coach, a former Bama end named Bear.

2. Bryant’s first peak came from 1961 to 1966. The Tide lost five games in six years, won the AP national title three times and nearly won a fourth in 1966.

3. After a late-1960s slide, Alabama’s integrated roster and Wishbone offense produced Bryant’s second peak: Bama averaged 10.8 wins per year with seven top-five finishes (and two more titles) from 1971 to 1979.

4. From Bryant’s retirement in 1982 through 2007, Bama enjoyed just three top-five finishes and one national title. The Tide turned, so to speak, when Saban finally said yes to Mal Moore.

5. Bama since 2008: six national titles and 12 consecutive 10-win seasons, top-10 finishes and SP+ top-three finishes. Most dominant run in CFB history? Quite possibly.