Star basketball prospect Emoni Bates announced Wednesday that he would reclassify from the 2022 class year to 2021, and he listed three college programs and the NBA G League’s pre-draft path as the finalists for his basketball services this season. Widely expected to join Bates in reclassifying is fellow 17-year-old Jalen Duren, the No. 2 prospect in the Class of 2022, who is scheduled to announce his reclassification plans and next basketball destination on Friday.
What would the additions of two five-star prospects mean for the programs Bates and Duren select? What could the introduction of the phenoms mean for the Final Four and national championship races in 2021-22?
We assessed those questions and more ahead of Duren’s planned announcement:
Which programs are in the running for Emoni Bates?
Bates cut his list of options to four on Wednesday: Oregon, Memphis, Michigan State and the G League. He had originally trimmed his list in late July, but Miami, Baylor, Overtime Elite and the NBL in Australia are no longer in the mix. Bates has no set decision date yet, although the thought over the past few weeks has been that he would take visits before choosing a school. Whether that timeline has sped up remains unclear.
Which programs are in the running for Jalen Duren?
Duren is set to announce his commitment on Friday night, and he could single-handedly change the 2021-22 fortunes for whichever school he picks. There are five options on the table for Duren: Memphis, Miami, Kentucky, the G League and the NBL. There is no clear favorite for Duren entering the final day of his recruitment, although most sources seem to think the college options are likelier than the professional route. I asked 10 industry sources on Wednesday where they think Duren is going, and there wasn’t anything close to a majority, let alone a consensus. Schools are legitimately in the dark heading down the stretch.
What is the likelihood that Bates and Duren will play together in 2021-22? Do they truly want to play together?
There has been some buzz over the past few weeks that the two have had conversations about playing together in college. Bates cutting Miami from his list leaves only two potential options for the two to play together at the next level: Memphis and the G League. With college looking to be the likely route for Duren, that would leave only Memphis. The Tigers are squarely in the mix for both players.
What would be the impact for Memphis if it gets one or both players? Do the Tigers then become a national title contender?
Landing both likely would vault Memphis into the top 10, while landing one would push the Tigers into the top 20. Bates will be in the mix for the No. 1 overall pick in whichever NBA draft he ultimately enters (as the rules stand, he’s too young to enter the 2022 NBA draft), while Duren is also going to be a projected top-10 pick in 2022. As it is, the Tigers are a borderline Top 25 team entering next season, returning three starters from a team that won the NIT championship. Coach Penny Hardaway also added former projected first-round pick Earl Timberlake from Miami, as well as two ESPN 100 prospects and two other Power 5 transfers. It’s a key season for Hardaway in Memphis, as he’s entering Year 4 and has yet to reach the NCAA tournament. Bates and/or Duren would help push the Tigers over the top and into the Big Dance.
What’s the impact for Michigan State or Oregon if it lands Bates?
Oregon is arguably the likelier of the two to land Bates, who decommitted from Michigan State in the spring. If the Spartans do land him again, they’ll be a clear-cut Top 25 team. They’ve been hovering in the 20-30 range all offseason, but they’ve lacked a go-to scorer on their roster. Bates could come in and immediately average 17-20 points per game and be the offensive focal point.
As usual, Oregon rebuilt its roster in the spring, with Dana Altman landing three impact transfers: Jacob Young (Rutgers), Quincy Guerrier (Syracuse) and De’Vion Harmon (Oklahoma), to go with top-10 recruit Nate Bittle and returning starters Will Richardson and Eric Williams Jr. Bates would give the Ducks a natural wing scorer and would add size on the perimeter in what might be a small lineup in Eugene this season. It’s worth noting that Oregon offered Bates right before his final game of the July live period, and Altman attended that final game in person.
What’s the impact for Kentucky or Miami if it lands Duren?
Despite bringing in four transfers and a five-star recruit since the end of the season, the Wildcats have not ended their quest for another frontcourt player. They were perceived as the favorites for Illinois transfer Kofi Cockburn before he returned to the Fighting Illini, and they have not given up on Duren, either. Duren would give John Calipari another physical interior rebounder and finisher to go alongside Oscar Tshiebwe and incoming recruit Daimion Collins. I have Kentucky just inside the preseason top 10, and Duren would push them further into national title contender territory.
I’m higher than most on Miami entering the season, as the Hurricanes have one of the deepest and most talented perimeter groups in the ACC. They also have a potential breakout player up front in Anthony Walker. But they’re missing a consistent centerpiece down low, and that’s where Duren would slot in and take Miami to the next level. I think he pushes the Hurricanes into the Top 25 and into contention for a top-four spot in what should be a wide-open ACC title race.
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Emoni Bates is the first sophomore to ever win the Gatorade National Boys Basketball Player of the Year award. See why with his electrifying mixtape.
Is it a coincidence that both players seem to be considering primarily Nike-sponsored college programs?
It could be. But both players played for Nike-sponsored grassroots teams on the Nike EYBL circuit and attended Nike-sponsored high schools last year. There’s one notable non-Nike school on Duren’s list, and that’s Adidas-sponsored Miami — although the Hurricanes did hire DJ Irving this offseason. Irving was one of Duren’s coaches with Team Final and also coached at Roman Catholic (Pennsylvania), where Duren attended before moving to Montverde Academy (Florida).
What would it say about college basketball if both Bates and Duren forgo college basketball and choose the G League path?
It would be a loss for college basketball, as both players — particularly Bates — would bring millions of eyeballs to the college game for as long as they play in college. If they team up together at Memphis, it would make the Tigers must-watch basketball next season. If they split up and go to different schools, it would make a couple more schools all the more intriguing for the season. I also think choosing the G League path would be a bit of a blow for the perception of name, imagine and likeness, which is expected to level the playing field when it comes to top prospects choosing between college and the professional route.