Bill Connelly’s mega offseason previews: ACC Coastal

It was perfect symmetry. After each of the ACC Coastal’s seven teams won a division title over the course of seven years, Notre Dame joined a divisionless ACC for the 2020 season and made the conference championship in its only try. In a way, that’s like eight champions in eight years for a seven-team division. (The Fighting Irish even followed Coastal customs by getting stomped by Clemson in the title game.)

Barring sudden and unexpected expansion, or the ditching of divisions altogether, we will actually see a repeat champion in the Coastal this year. And based on last year’s levels and this year’s returning production, Miami and North Carolina have the best odds of getting it done. In this bastion of extreme parity, can either of these programs play at the top-10 levels projected of them and maybe actually challenge Clemson in the conference title game for once? Can Virginia Tech reverse last year’s bad luck and make a run? Can Pitt or Virginia wreck everyone else’s plans?

There’s more upside in this division than we’ve seen in a while, but questions linger. Let’s preview each team in the ACC Coastal.

Every week through the summer, Bill Connelly will preview another division from the Group of 5 and Power 5 exclusively for ESPN+, ultimately including all 130 FBS teams. The previews will include 2020 breakdowns, 2021 previews and a brief history of each team in one handy chart. The series has thus far covered the Conference USA East and West, the MAC East and West, the MWC Mountain and West, the Sun Belt West and East, the top and bottom half of the AAC, the seven Independents and the ACC Atlantic.

Jump to a team: Duke | Georgia Tech | Virginia | Pitt | Virginia Tech | UNC | Miami

The Duke offense fell apart in 2019, and the defense followed suit in 2020. David Cutcliffe’s Blue Devils have rebounded before, but it’s difficult to predict that it’ll happen again.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 102nd

Projected win total: 3.5 (1.2 in the ACC)

• Likely wins*: NC A&T (69% win probability), Kansas (66%)

• Relative toss-ups: at Charlotte (58%), Northwestern (37%)

• Likely losses: Georgia Tech (22%), at Wake Forest (20%), Louisville (20%), Pitt (19%), at Virginia (17%), at Virginia Tech (9%), Miami (4%), at North Carolina (3%)

* Likely wins are games in which SP+ projects the scoring margin to be greater than seven points, or above about 65% win probability. Likely losses are the opposite, and relative toss-ups are all the games in between.

It’s a good time for a soft nonconference slate. Duke plays three teams projected 113th or worse in September but no one worse than 64th after that. Stock up on wins early.

What we learned about Duke in 2020

Success comes in cycles. That’s what Cutcliffe has to hope, anyway. Duke went 5-7 in 2009 but fell to 5-18 in the next two years. The Blue Devils jumped to 19-8 in 2013-14 before stumbling to 4-8 in 2016. They were to 15-11 in 2017-18 but went 2-9 in 2020. His success has been driven by cycles of talented upperclassmen thriving, then leaving.

Does such a talented group exist at the moment? The Blue Devils boast explosive running backs Mataeo Durant and Jordan Waters, an experienced offensive line, an exciting linebacker Shaka Heyward and a solid corner in Jeremiah Lewis. That doesn’t feel like quite enough, though. The passing game has no proven pieces, and a decent defensive line got destroyed by attrition.

Turnovers’ luck is a jerk. Based on national averages for fumble recoveries and the ratio of interceptions to pass breakups, Duke’s turnover margin should have been around minus-7.8. It was minus-19 instead. This didn’t hurt the Blue Devils in close games because they barely played in any, but it made bad losses worse.

What we didn’t learn about Duke in 2020

Does the passing game have any hope? Clemson transfer Chase Brice had a miserable 2020, completing 55% of his passes with 15 interceptions and 34 sacks. In a handful of dropbacks, backup Gunnar Holmberg fared even worse.

Brice is gone and Holmberg’s the presumptive starter this fall. Six of last year’s top eight targets return, but he needs playmakers. Leading receiver Jalon Calhoun had an 80-yard score in Duke’s spring showcase but averaged just 8.9 yards per catch last season. Can an explosive reserve like Jarett Garner become a go-to guy?

Duke’s history in one chart

1. Wallace Wade turned Alabama into ALABAMA in the 1920s, then made Duke a steady power in the 1930s and 1940s. Duke fell into decline within a few years of his retirement.

2. Before Sonny Jurgensen became a five-time NFL passing yardage leader in the 1960s, he was leading Duke to an Orange Bowl as starting quarterback/safety/punter.

3. Between 1963 and 2013, Duke won more than six games just three times. Two of those instances came in 1988-89 with a head coach named Steve Spurrier.

4. The Blue Devils had won 22 games in 13 years, with an average SP+ ranking of 101.3, when they hired Cutcliffe in 2008.

5. Beginning in Cutcliffe’s fifth season, Duke enjoyed its most sustained run of success in a half-century: six bowls in seven years with an ACC Coastal title.

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After youth movements in consecutive seasons, it’s time for Geoff Collins to begin providing proof of a concept in Atlanta. He might have the pieces to do just that.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 48th

Projected win total: 5.6 (3.3 in the ACC)

• Likely wins*: Kennesaw State (92%), Northern Illinois (90%), at Duke (78%)

• Relative toss-ups: Boston College (63%), Pitt (51%), at Virginia (47%), Virginia Tech (45%)

• Likely losses: at Notre Dame (26%), North Carolina (23%), Georgia (19%), at Miami (14%), at Clemson (8%)

SP+ sees improvement in Tech’s future, in part because of massive returning production totals. A schedule with four projected top-10 opponents, however, will keep optimism in check.

What we learned about Georgia Tech in 2020

The Yellow Jackets can run. A freshman backfield of quarterback Jeff Sims and running back Jahmyr Gibbs provided excitement in 2020; not including sacks, they rushed for 1,087 yards (5.8 per carry) and 10 touchdowns, and Gibbs provided occasional pop in the passing game, too. Granted, this edge only lasted if Tech was on schedule — the Jackets ranked 53rd in standard downs success rate but 86th on passing downs. But there’s upside here, and junior wide receivers Malachi Carter and Adonicas Sanders can provide a bit more.

Tech is two years removed from option-loving head coach Paul Johnson’s retirement. The line is in flux, replacing two starters and bringing in three transfers, but the Jackets rebounded from 117th to 81st in offensive SP+ last fall and further improvement is likely.

What we didn’t learn about Georgia Tech in 2020

Can an aggressive defense allow fewer chunk plays? Collins and coordinator Andrew Thacker’s defense has shown progress, jumping from 100th in defensive SP+ in Johnson’s last year to 58th last fall. Collins is forever aggressive, and players like sophomore end Jordan Domineck, junior linebacker Charlie Thomas and sophomore corner Zamari Walton are useful pieces in that regard. Plus, transfer Keion White had 19 tackles for loss and 23 run stuffs for Old Dominion in 2019. Collins also added young blue-chip transfers like end Kevin Harris II (Alabama) and defensive back Kenyatta Watson II (Texas).

As with the offense, though, passing downs were a problem. Blitzing resulted in big plays more than sacks, and Tech ranked 85th in explosive play rate allowed. With 10 starters back and extra talent arriving, the breakdowns should theoretically subside, but by how much?

Georgia Tech’s history in one chart

1. From 1951-56, the Ramblin’ Wreck went 59-6-3 with six bowl wins, five top-10 finishes and a share of the 1952 national title. It was the heyday of the Bobby Dodd era.

2. Dodd retired in 1966 after seven top-10 finishes, 165 career wins and a 1963 departure from the SEC that was driven in part by Dodd’s ongoing feud with Paul “Bear” Bryant.

3. The Jackets enjoyed just one top-10 finish in the 32 years following Dodd’s retirement, but they made it count, going 11-0-1 in 1990 and winning a share of the national title.

4. All hail Megatron: Despite playing on mostly sketchy offenses, Calvin Johnson caught 178 passes for 2,927 yards in three years before moving on to dominate the NFL.

5. Tech took the option plunge in 2008. The hire of Johnson brought two 11-win seasons, nine bowls, one ACC title and, when he retired, a massive offensive rebuild.

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Bronco Mendenhall’s fifth UVA team was two in one: an offensively-challenged team that began the year 1-4 and a prolific, devil-may-care squad that finished 4-1.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 56th

Projected win total: 5.8 (3.4 in the ACC)

• Likely wins*: William & Mary (95%), Duke (83%), Illinois (72%)

• Relative toss-ups: Wake Forest (61%), Georgia Tech (53%), at BYU (43%), Virginia Tech (42%), at Louisville (38%), at Pitt (37%)

• Likely losses: Notre Dame (34%), at North Carolina (13%), at Miami (12%)

Most of the reasons for the offensive surge return, and if the defense regains its footing, good things are ahead. If not, it’s a slog toward .500.

What we learned about UVA in 2020

Mendenhall isn’t afraid to get weird. After losing star quarterback Bryce Perkins and his top two receivers, Mendenhall and offensive coordinator Robert Anae had to reinvent their attack and did so around multiple QBs. Brennan Armstrong was the starter, but Mississippi State transfer Keytaon Thompson and Iraken Armstead were used as both Wildcat QBs and occasional wideouts. The run game was exciting, and when Lavel Davis Jr. and Ra’Shaun Henry emerged as big-play threats late in the year, UVA went from averaging 23.8 points in its first five games to 43.3 during a four-game winning streak.

Armstrong, leading receiver Billy Kemp IV, the Wildcats, the big-play guys and veteran RB Wayne Taulapapa are all back, as are all five starting linemen. UVA is projected 47th in offensive SP+, and a jump into the top 40 wouldn’t be surprising.

What we didn’t learn about UVA in 2020

What’s wrong with the defense? Going back to his days as Rocky Long’s defensive coordinator, Mendenhall has long been involved with awesome defenses. His UVA defense rose to 31st in defensive SP+ in 2018, but it slipped to 52nd in 2019 and 57th last year. The Cavaliers were as efficient as ever against the run, but the secondary couldn’t make enough plays, and aggression backfired massively to the tune of 3.7 gains per game of 30+ yards allowed (125th in FBS).

Some of their worst performances came when safety Joey Blount was out with injury, and he and up to 5-6 other seniors could lead the way in the starting lineup, along with playmaking end Aaron Faumui, a 2020 opt-out. It seems the stage is set for a defensive rebound, but after last year, it’s relevant to question the overall upside on the two-deep.

UVA’s history in one chart

1. Under Art Guepe, Virginia went 24-5 with a top-15 finish from 1950-52. He left for Vandy in 1953, and the Hoos won just 12 games in their next eight seasons.

2. After a mostly miserable couple of decades, UVA hired master builder George Welsh in 1982. In his third year, they were bowling for the first time ever.

3. In Welsh’s ninth season, the Cavaliers made a miracle run to No. 1 in the country, but a gut-wrenching loss to Georgia Tech triggered a 1-4 finish.

4. Not a bad package deal: Twins Tiki and Ronde Barber combined for 3,948 rushing and receiving yards from RB Tiki … and 15 career INTs from CB Ronde.

5. Mendenhall righted a slow slide upon his 2016 hire. His tenure thus far peaked with 17 wins and a Coastal title in 2018-19.

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It took Pat Narduzzi a while to build the defense he wanted at Pitt. He has it now, but he also needs another offensive surge.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 43rd

Projected win total: 7.0 (3.7 in the ACC)

• Likely wins*: UMass (98%), New Hampshire (95%), at Duke (81%), WMU (79%), at Syracuse (77%)

• Relative toss-ups: Virginia (63%), at Tennessee (49%), at Georgia Tech (49%), at Virginia Tech (38%)

• Likely losses: North Carolina (26%), Miami (24%), Clemson (15%)

With three easy games and toss-ups vs. Tennessee and Georgia Tech over their first five games, the Panthers have a shot at a fast start. Then three potential top-10 foes show up in a four-game span.

What we learned about Pitt in 2020

We’re still waiting on a Kenny Pickett breakthrough. The first time most of us saw Pickett, the freshman QB was piloting an upset of No. 2 Miami in 2017. Big things were expected, but in three seasons as a starter, his Total QBR ratings have been 53.7, 55.3 and 60.9. Mediocre.

In his third year with veteran coordinator Mark Whipple, Pickett will have a veteran line, an explosive back in Vincent Davis and high-upside (but inconsistent) receivers like Jordan Addison and Taysir Mack. All these pieces added up to only a No. 86 offensive SP+ ranking last year.

Narduzzi and Randy Bates are a good team. Narduzzi enjoyed otherworldly success as Michigan State‘s defensive coordinator, but he didn’t make defensive headway at Pitt until he brought in Randy Bates as coordinator. They have averaged a defensive SP+ ranking of 19.5 the last two seasons. They were as aggressive and efficient as ever last season, complete with the occasional big-play breakdowns that style is susceptible to. They should have a strong spine in 2021 with every defensive tackle and a dynamite linebacking corps returning.

What we didn’t learn about Pitt in 2020

How important were Ford and Hamlin? The Panthers defense has two big questions to answer. First, they have to replace ends Patrick Jones II and Rashad Weaver up front. Last year’s backups, Deslin Alexandre and John Morgan, were just about as good on a per-snap basis, but they still have a high bar to clear. Second, and perhaps more important, safeties Paris Ford and Damar Hamlin are gone. Erick Hallett and Brandon Hill each saw 250+ snaps, and the D got used to life without Ford when he missed the last four games. But Ford and Hamlin were tremendous.

Pitt’s history in one chart

1. After dominant play in the 1930s, Pitt was pretty mediocre after the war. But they still produced star talent like Hall of Fame WR/DE/punter Mike Ditka.

2. Pitt hired Johnny Majors following a 1-10 season in 1972. The rise was instantaneous. (It helped that he had Tony Dorsett at his disposal.)

3. From 1976-82, Pitt enjoyed six top-10 finishes and a national title (1976) behind some of the greatest star power — Dorsett, Dan Marino, Hugh Green, Mark May — the sport has seen.

4. Majors had Curtis Martin at his disposal for his second go-round at Pitt, but four years produced only 12 wins.

5. Does Narduzzi have a breakthrough in him? His offense and defense haven’t been good at the same time yet, and each of six years have produced between 5-7 losses.

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Depth issues and poor fortune turned a 4-2 start into a 1-4 finish for Justin Fuente’s Hokies. Fuente enters year six in Blacksburg on a bit of a hot seat.

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 36th

Projected win total: 7.5 (4.7 in the ACC)

• Likely wins*: Richmond (98%), Middle Tennessee (94%), Duke (91%), Syracuse (88%)

• Relative toss-ups: at Boston College (63%), Pitt (62%), at Virginia (58%), at Georgia Tech (55%), Notre Dame (47%), at WVU (42%)

• Likely losses: North Carolina (32%), at Miami (21%)

A hot-seat season in which half the games are projected within a touchdown? That sounds … anxious.

What we learned about Virginia Tech in 2020

The results disagree with the stats sometimes. Tech finished 2020 a respectable 27th in SP+ despite a 5-6 record. Why? Because SP+ saw about a 7-4 team.

Tech’s postgame win expectancy — which takes the key predictive stats from a given game, tosses them into the air and says, “With these stats, you could have expected to win this game X% of the time” — was 77% against Wake Forest, 67% against Liberty and 54% against Miami. There was a 3% chance of them going 0-3 in those games … but they lost each. They beat three decent teams by 18+ points, too. The upside was there, and if close-game fortune reverses, Tech could surprise.

What we didn’t learn about Virginia Tech in 2020

What can we learn from two games? With both Hendon Hooker and Quincy Patterson transferring, it’s safe to say that the QB job will go to Braxton Burmeister. The Oregon transfer is an aggressive passer and solid runner, but there were two very different Burmeisters last year. In the first three games of 2020, he completed a dreadful 46% of his passes with a 107.1 passer rating; in the last two, after missing time with broken toes, he completed 74% with a 167.0. He was horrid against Duke early but torched Virginia late.

Tech will need more from the passing game after losing 1,100-yard rusher Khalil Herbert and a dynamite rushing QB in Hooker. Receivers Tayvion Robinson and Tre Turner could be ready for big things if Burmeister is.

Can the Hokies stop the run? In Justin Hamilton’s first season replacing legendary defensive coordinator Bud Foster, Tech was decent against the pass and limited big plays but got carved up by decent ground games. End Amare Barno is excellent, and star corner Jermaine Waller is healthy after an injury-plagued 2020; the pass D should be just fine. But can tackle and Clemson transfer Jordan Williams provide an upgrade against the run?

Virginia Tech’s history in one chart

1. Before he embarked on his 200-sack, Hall of Fame NFL career, Bruce Smith was recorded 38 sacks in his last two seasons at Virginia Tech.

2. Frank Beamer took over as head coach in 1987 and went just 24-40-2 in his first six seasons. Patience would eventually pay off, however.

3. In the middle of Tech’s greatest stretch ever — seven top-10 finishes in 15 years — came Michael Vick’s brilliance and a run to the 1999 BCS Championship game.

4. All hail the Sandman experience. It began in 2000 (see below).

5. Beamer retired in 2015, and Fuente has struggled to achieve consistency in the years since. Do the Hokies have the pieces to arrest a slow-motion slide?

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In 2020, UNC looked good enough in its good moments to see major top-10 potential and bad enough in its bad moments to see a flash in the pan. SP+ sees the former. What do you see?

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: 10th

Projected win total: 9.6 (6.2 in the ACC)

• Likely wins*: Wofford (99%), Duke (97%), Georgia State (93%), Wake Forest (89%), Virginia (87%), Florida State (87%), at Georgia Tech (77%), at Pitt (74%), at NC State (74%), at Virginia Tech (68%)

• Relative toss-ups: at Notre Dame (60%), Miami (53%)

• Likely loss: none

UNC avoids Clemson and gets Miami at home. That’s a pretty good starting point for a Coastal title run, even if there are still tricky road trips on the schedule.

What we learned about UNC in 2020

The QB position is … kind of important. Mack Brown did a great job of hiring young, energetic assistants like Phil Longo (OC) and Jay Bateman (DC) when he was re-hired as UNC’s head coach at age 66 in late 2018, and combining that with the players he inherited from Larry Fedora — WRs Dyami Brown and Dazz Newsome, RBs Michael Carter and Javonte Williams, LBs Chazz Surratt and Tomon Fox, etc. — was guaranteed to result in improvement for the Tar Heels in 2019-20.

Brown also pulled a Mack Brown — stealing blue-chip quarterback Sam Howell from FSU late in the recruiting cycle — and it turbo-charged the rebound. Howell has thrown for 7,227 yards in two seasons, and UNC has jumped from 58th to sixth in offensive SP+. Having Howell in town for another year to break in a renovated skill corps will help immensely.

It’s time to set the bar higher for the defense. Bateman has found success in individual games at UNC, but the Heels ranked just 53rd in defensive SP+ last fall. Surratt and corner Patrice Rene are gone, but virtually everyone else returns, including corners Storm Duck, who missed most of 2020 with injury, and blue-chipper Tony Grimes, who reclassified last summer and allowed just a 9.1 QBR in coverage as an 18-year-old. The defense has no excuse but to improve.

What we didn’t learn about UNC in 2020

Young receivers Khafre Brown and Josh Downs were dynamite as understudies (22 catches, 456 yards, five TDs), but unless Tennessee transfer Ty Chandler is ready to shine immediately, I’m not sure what the RB corps has to offer. You don’t necessarily want Howell carrying too much of an extra load in the run game even if he’s willing.

UNC’s history in one chart

1. After dominating the Southern Conference in the late 1940s, UNC helped start the ACC in 1953 but fell into a rut: no ranked finishes from 1949 to 1972.

2. Dick Crum’s Tar Heels surged to a combined 21-3 with two top-10 finishes in 1980-81, thanks in part to some dude named Lawrence Taylor.

3. Brown went 2-20 in his first two seasons at UNC (1988-89) but slowly built a war machine. In his last two seasons (1996-97), the Heels were 21-3.

4. Under Fedora in 2015, UNC went 11-3 and won its first division title. The underrated Marquise Williams: 6,140 passing yards and 1,736 rushing yards in 2014-15.

5. Fedora’s peak didn’t last long, but he left a talented supporting cast for Brown’s return, and Brown has only added to it since.

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SP+ had high hopes for Manny Diaz’s Hurricanes in 2020, and they lived up to all of it and more … until the last two games, anyway. Losses to UNC and Oklahoma State turned “8-1 and in the top 10” into “8-3 and 22nd.”

2021 Projections
Projected SP+ rank: eighth

Projected win total: 9.4 (6.4 in the ACC)

• Likely wins*: Central Connecticut (99%), at Duke (96%), Michigan State (88%), Virginia (88%), Georgia Tech (86%), NC State (84%), at Florida State (82%), Appalachian State (79%), Virginia Tech (79%), at Pitt (76%)

• Relative toss-ups: at North Carolina (47%)

• Likely losses: vs. Alabama (32%)

Almost everyone, including quarterback D’Eriq King, returns from last year’s improved squad. If the Hurricanes can rebound quickly from a likely first-week loss to Bama, a huge season is conceivable.

What we learned about Miami in 2020

Once again, QBs are important. Miami’s recent history has been defined by quarterbacks who flashed moments of potential but couldn’t come close to maintaining it. That changed when King arrived from Houston last fall. The perfect QB for aggressive new coordinator Rhett Lashlee, King completed 64% of his passes, led Miami with 698 non-sack rushing yards and ranked 19th in Total QBR.

King tore his ACL in the bowl loss but should be 100% when the season begins. His second season with an explosive skill corps — RBs Cam’Ron Harris and Donald Chaney Jr., receivers Mike Harley, Mark Pope, Dee Wiggins and now Oklahoma transfer Charleston Rambo — could produce even more big plays. That becomes even more true if a recent blue-chipper like Jeremiah Payton, Jaylan Knighton or Romello Brinson catches fire.

The pass rush factory continues to produce. In 2018, the Canes had Joe Jackson. In 2019, Gregory Rousseau and Jonathan Garvin. In 2020, Jaelan Phillips and Quincy Roche. It’s an assumption that a Diaz defense is going to rack up the TFLs; it’s just a question of who will be doing it. With Phillips and Roche gone, the responsibility falls to some combination of senior Zach McCloud (outstanding as a backup), Tennessee transfer Deandre Johnson and youngsters like Jahfari Harvey, Chantz Williams and incoming top-10 recruit Leonard Taylor.

What we didn’t learn about Miami in 2020

Can the run defense rebound? Despite the pass rush, Miami tumbled from ninth to 31st in defensive SP+ last fall. COVID-19 issues massively challenged depth and shuffled lineups, and it showed, especially in giving up 99 points to UNC and OSU at the end of 2020. Sixteen of 18 players with 200+ snaps return, plus Johnson and Georgia CB transfer Tyrique Stevenson. Depth should absolutely not be an issue this time around. Does that fix some of the issues?

Miami’s history in one chart

1. Seemingly every school found a run of postwar success, and Miami was no exception: The Canes earned consecutive top-15 finishes from 1954-56, peaking at sixth in 1956.

2. After considering dropping football, Miami hired Howard Schnellenberger in 1979. Good move. He had them in the top 10 by his third year and national champs in his fifth.

3. Schnellenberger left, but under Jimmy Johnson and Dennis Erickson, The U finished in the AP top 3 every year from 1986-92, winning three more national titles.

4. After NCAA sanctions, Miami surged again under Butch Davis and Larry Coker, going 46-4 from 2000-03, with four top-five finishes and one more title.

5. Miami has won 6+ games in 16 of the last 17 years, but the bar is set at “ELITE TEAMS ONLY” in South Florida. Is Diaz building a program that can eventually clear that bar?