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John GasawayESPN Insider
If watching Champ Week has left you with the impression that bubble teams have been losing left and right, well, you might be on to something.
Xavier, Syracuse and Boise State have all wrapped up their conference tournament runs and left their fates in the hands of the committee. Not all losses are created equal, of course. Jim Boeheim’s team lost to the top seed in its conference bracket (Virginia) , the Broncos fell to a No. 5 seed (Nevada) and the Musketeers were defeated by a No. 10 (Butler).
Nevertheless, the common quandary shared by all three programs is that in theory they can do nothing but watch active bubble teams try to move up into the field. (In theory. Xavier, for one, has explored scheduling a profile-enhancing game during this lull.) Other teams in the same inactive boat, such as Drake and Saint Louis, know all too well how this feels.
Perhaps a quick review of the bubble teams that are still playing win-or-go-home basketball is in order:
Colorado State and Utah State. The Rams and Aggies have both reached the Mountain West semifinals where, coincidentally, they will now face each other. Our colleague Joe Lunardi shows both CSU and USU as “last four in.” High stakes in Vegas!
Ole Miss. While many competing bubble teams were losing, the Rebels won against South Carolina in the second round of the SEC tournament. Next up for Devontae Shuler and company is a date with LSU, as Ole Miss tries to play its way off the “first four out” list and into the field.
SMU. Tim Jankovich’s men will return to action for the first time since early February in an American quarterfinal against Cincinnati. The Mustangs have been shown in “next four out” territory more or less throughout their pause.
Memphis. Last seen suffering a heartbreaking loss at Houston on a Tramon Mark buzzer-beater, the Tigers are actually still in this discussion. A win in the quarterfinals over UCF could give Penny Hardaway’s guys another shot at the Cougars, this time on a neutral floor in Fort Worth.
Bids from traditional one-bid leagues (minus the Ivy): 20 teams
Locks: 36 teams
The bubble: 19 teams for 12 available spots
Should be in: 4 teams
Work to do: 15 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
ACC
Locks: Virginia, Florida State, Clemson, Virginia Tech, North Carolina
Should be in
The Yellow Jackets survived ACC Player of the Year Moses Wright fouling out with 2:30 remaining and prevailed against Miami to advance to the semifinals at Greensboro Coliseum. Being one of the last four teams standing in the ACC tournament and possessing a 16-8 record should be more than enough for Georgia Tech to play in its first NCAA tournament since 2010. Josh Pastner’s men have now won seven in a row, and in the process, they’ve played themselves from far off the bubble all the way to a potential No. 10 seed. A semifinal game awaits against Virginia, and perhaps the Yellow Jackets can climb still higher in the bracket.
Work to do
When Louisville took the floor against Duke in the ACC tournament, the Cardinals were projected as possibly the highest or second-highest No. 11 seed in the field. If that projection had value, Chris Mack’s men had a cushion of six or seven teams underneath them in the bracket. So, how far does a 14-point loss to the Blue Devils on a neutral floor drop the Cards? You would think the answer to that would be a number smaller than six or seven. The game goes in the books as a Quad 2 loss, not a point of pride, certainly, but not catastrophic, either. Yes, you would think the loss would drop Louisville fewer than six or seven lines. But if the initial projection was off or if a bid thief or two emerges, things could become tense for the Cards just the same.
Reece Beekman made just his ninth 3-pointer of the season in the final second to give Virginia a 72-69 win over Syracuse in the ACC quarterfinals. Beekman’s game winner was a true buzzer-beater (release, horn, swish), and the shot significantly increased the probability that Jim Boeheim’s men will watch the selection show not knowing whether they’re in. A win over the Cavaliers might have given the Orange a margin of comfort, but that’s pointless speculation in this post-Beekman world. What we do know is that Syracuse entered the game being shown as one of the last teams in the tournament field by Joe Lunardi. That means any bid thief arising from anywhere in the coming days is bad news for the Orange in particular. Will the committee give an at-large to a 16-9 team with a strong NET ranking (top-40 prior to the loss to UVA) but also with just one Quad 1 win? The safest prediction might be that Syracuse will either be a No. 12 seed or one of the first one or two teams out. No higher or lower.
Big 12
Locks: Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Kansas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State
Oklahoma State is shown here as a “lock” to make the tournament. OSU is appealing an NCAA ruling that would prohibit the men’s basketball team from postseason play. As long as that appeal is still under consideration by the NCAA, this season’s team would be allowed to participate in the tournament.
Big East
Locks: Villanova, Creighton, Connecticut
Work to do
The Musketeers were being shown as literally the last team in the field of 68 when they lost in overtime to Butler in the first round of the Big East tournament. As for the Bulldogs, they took the floor at Madison Square Garden at No. 117 in the NET rankings, making this a Quad 3 loss for Travis Steele’s team. In other words, barring only the most unexpected spasm of committee wackiness in recent memory, Xavier’s at-large hopes are dead. Steele has apparently come to the same conclusion and is reportedly seeking to schedule more basketball between now and Selection Sunday. That’s a tight time window to hit, but the Musketeers appear to have been preparing for just such an eventuality. In fact, school authorities have told the local media in Cincinnati that they’ve been considering this scenario for weeks. Stay tuned.
In what we think amounted to a true bubble elimination game, the Pirates defeated St. John’s in overtime and will advance to the Big East semifinals. Seton Hall survived, but the one wrinkle presented by the Big East bracket is that Georgetown upset Villanova in the other quarterfinal. Now Kevin Willard’s team will face the Hoyas, and a victory over Patrick Ewing’s men is, on paper, a Quad 2 result. In view of the fact that the Pirates are found under the “next four out” heading in mock brackets, a Quad 2 win alone is unlikely to put the Hall into the projected field. It could be the case that the Pirates’ most realistic path into the NCAA tournament at this point is to win the automatic bid.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue, Rutgers
Should be in
Good luck trying to figure out Maryland. The team that couldn’t win at Northwestern and that lost at home to Penn State then turned around and defeated Michigan State by 11 on a neutral floor at the Big Ten tournament. What are you going to do with a group like that in your bracket? Make no mistake, you’ll have the opportunity to weigh that very question. The Terrapins will be in the field of 68, possibly as a No. 11 or No. 10 seed. Give Mark Turgeon’s men credit. The Terps played themselves into jeopardy with the back to back losses to the Wildcats and the Nittany Lions. Eric Ayala and Aaron Wiggins then took the lead in steering Maryland back from the precipice with 40 combined points against the Spartans. This team is nothing if not continually surprising.
The Spartans should be fine despite ending their season with a 68-57 loss to Maryland in the second round of the Big Ten tournament. Tom Izzo’s team had already built its reputation as a late-season wonder with profile-defining wins in East Lansing over Ohio State, Illinois and Michigan. So, yes, the Spartans can feel secure as they take their seats for the selection show. The other side of that coin, however, is that this is a 15-12 team that will likely have the lowest NET ranking (in the high 60s or even low 70s) of any at-large selection. The Spartans are headed for a double-digit seed, and it’s conceivable the number next to their name in the bracket could be a 12.
Pac-12
Work to do
Few Bubble Watch teams have roamed the landscape of possibilities with the same vigor as the Bruins. For much of February, it appeared that Mick Cronin’s team was poised to become a lock. That didn’t happen, but UCLA was still in contention for the Pac-12 title until the later stages of the regular season. That didn’t happen either, and now, after losing to Oregon State in overtime in the Pac-12 quarterfinals, the Bruins find themselves bumped down to “Work to do.” To be clear, UCLA is a prohibitive favorite to hear its name called on Selection Sunday. Still, it now looks as though there might be a No. 11 appearing next to that name in the bracket.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, LSU
Work to do
One measurement of how strong the SEC has become is the caliber of teams competing in the conference tournament’s second round. Bubble Watch locks Tennessee and Florida had to win games on Thursday just to reach the quarterfinals. Also navigating the second round safely was Ole Miss, a 76-59 winner over South Carolina. The Rebels are perched just outside the projected field, and they now have the opportunity to earn one or more quality wins. Every potential opponent over the next two games on the Ole Miss side of the bracket would present a Quad 1 opportunity. The next such opponent will be LSU in the quarterfinals.
American
Locks: Houston
Work to do
With a win at home over Houston to its credit, Wichita State entered mock brackets in the last week of February as one of the last teams in the field. The Shockers have maintained that position ever since, and, barring a bad loss at the American tournament, Isaac Brown’s group might not get an opportunity to improve its projected seed to any significant extent. Any rematch with the Cougars, for example, could take place in the American title game, in which case another “big” victory over Kelvin Samson’s team would also hand WSU the automatic bid.
The wait is over. SMU will play a game for the first time since February 8th, as Tim Jankovich’s group faces Cincinnati in an American quarterfinal. When last we saw the Mustangs, Kendric Davis was making plays and SMU was forcing misses in the paint. Naturally, the month spent away from game action could pose a challenge, but perhaps Southern Methodist can draw confidence from the good showing Virginia Tech made, albeit after a shorter pause, in its ACC tournament loss to a strong North Carolina team. A win for the Mustangs could give them a semifinal pairing with Wichita State. The Shockers aren’t a particularly rewarding opportunity in NET terms, but Isaac Brown’s team is the top seed.
A spectacular finish at Houston may have finished off any at-large hopes for Memphis. The Tigers’ Boogie Ellis tied the game with a 3 with 1.5 seconds remaining. After a timeout, the Cougars then won on a buzzer-beating 3 off glass by Tramon Mark. When Mark’s game-winner cleared the net, mock brackets were showing Memphis as a member of the “next four out” list. That means Penny Hardaway’s team has work to do at the American tournament. This is the part where Bubble Watch usually says, “[Bubble Team X] can only face [Lock Y] in the title game, so anything short of an automatic bid won’t work.” Not true for Memphis! In what amounts to a really good break for the Tigers, the top seed in this bracket is Wichita State. That means No. 2 seed Houston, by far the strongest opponent in the field in NET terms, could be waiting for the No. 3 Tigers in the semifinals. Go strong in that quarterfinal, Memphis, and then let’s talk.
Others
Locks: Gonzaga, BYU, Loyola Chicago, San Diego State
Should be in
In the space of just 19 games played during a paused and shortened season, St. Bonaventure has made a commendably strong case for an at-large bid. Mark Schmidt’s team was already in the top 30 of the NET rankings before the Atlantic 10 tournament semifinal win over Saint Louis, and mock brackets were showing the Bonnies as a No. 10 seed. The decision over the Billikens goes into the books as a Quad 1 win, the team’s third this season against just two defeats. With each postseason victory, there will be more talk of Schmidt as a candidate for other positions (possibly Boston College). For now, St. Bonaventure will gladly take the “each postseason victory” half of that bargain.
Work to do
The Atlantic 10 title game is going to have a heavy major conference vibe, because it would appear that, win or lose, both VCU and St. Bonaventure will make the field of 68. The Rams are projected as a No. 11 seed, and the team has received a lift from the return of Bones Hyland, after he missed two games with an injured foot. The strong showing at the A-10 tournament has been a welcome turn of events for a program with unfinished postseason business. In 2019, VCU breezed through conference play at 16-2 only to lose to Rhode Island in the A-10 quarterfinals. The Rams were then given a No. 8 seed on Selection Sunday, and they lost by 15 in the round of 64 to UCF. Mike Rhoades’ current team has already outperformed that precedent in the conference tournament and will seek to do the same in the NCAA’s bracket.
The Bulldogs were being projected as one of the last three teams in the field at the final horn of their loss to Loyola Chicago in the Missouri Valley tournament title game. There is zero profile damage incurred in losing to a NET top-20 opponent such as the Ramblers on a neutral floor, so for the sake of discussion, say that Drake is still one of the last three teams in the theoretical field. There’s a good deal of basketball to be played between now and Selection Sunday, and Drake can earn an at-large bid if “first four out” teams fail to climb higher in the bracket. The Bulldogs do have one win over Loyola in three tries, a NET ranking in the top 50 and a 25-4 overall record. It’s going to be a close call for the committee, and the Bulldogs will quite rightly worry about each bid thief and every strong run by another bubble team.
What do we call it when two members of the “last four in” club meet head-to-head in their conference tournament semifinals? Is it a bubble showdown or an elimination game? We’ll have an answer after the selection show on Sunday evening. Here’s what we know now: Colorado State will play Utah State for a chance to advance to the MWC title game against either San Diego State or potential bid thief Nevada. Our colleague Joe Lunardi projects both the Rams and the Aggies as First Four teams. A CSU win could potentially seal this deal for Niko Medved’s group, which has been shown in the field of 68 by a clear majority of mock brackets now for over a month. A loss, on the other hand, would trigger suspense and anxiety for a Colorado State team that fell to a projected No. 12 seed in those same brackets after a three-point loss in the regular season finale at Nevada.
On a day when many rival bubble teams were losing, Utah State breezed to a 21-point win over UNLV in Las Vegas. In theory, defeating a team ranked No. 175 in the NET is simply a case of taking care of business and doesn’t earn you a boost in the bracket. What the victory clearly does, however, is give Craig Smith’s guys a shot at enhancing their profile still further. USU entered the Mountain West tournament as one of the first four teams out in Joe Lunardi’s estimation. The Aggies will now proceed to the semifinals with Smith carrying a perfect 7-0 career record in MWC tournament play.
Leon Rice’s group was projected as one of the last teams in the field when it lost to Nevada by seven in the Mountain West quarterfinals. It was a sudden exit for a team that not so long ago seemed to be charting a very different trajectory. With a win over BYU to its credit, Boise State was seen as a No. 9 seed in early February. After a 13-1 start, however, BSU went 5-7 the rest of the way, a closing stretch that included four straight losses to end the season. The defeat at home to Fresno State in the regular-season finale now looks particularly damaging. If there’s a sliver of hope for the Broncos it’s that their loss was part of a larger wave of defeats impacting the likes of Syracuse, Xavier, Drake and Saint Louis. The committee does have to get to 68 somehow.
After SLU’s loss to St. Bonaventure in the Atlantic 10 semifinals, coach Travis Ford said his team was looking to schedule a game in the coming week. The impulse to improve this profile is sound because, as it stands, there may not be enough here for a 14-6 team with a top-50 NET ranking to earn an at-large bid. The win over LSU is significant, of course, as is the regular-season win over the Bonnies in St. Louis. If the Billikens do come up short, however, one telling of the story could hold that even one win against VCU or one more against St. Bonaventure may have made a significant difference within the small number of games the Billikens played. So yes, schedule wisely, Coach Ford. In NET terms, the highest-ranked team that has already ended its season without realistic hope of a bid would appear to be Davidson. Just a suggestion.