After one week of Michigan in the top two, the Power Rankings have returned to homeostasis. The Wolverines were blown out by Illinois at home and lost to Michigan State, while Baylor ripped off wins over West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech. So Baylor is back in its usual No. 2 position behind top-ranked Gonzaga.
The Zags remaining No. 1 is perhaps the only thing lacking drama during Champ Week. Here are the primary things that need figuring out over the next few days:
Big Ten pecking order: Wisconsin has faded, leaving five teams in the mix for a top-16 spot. Michigan and Illinois have likely secured a top-four ranking, but Ohio State is fading while Iowa is rising. Purdue is making a strong late push; how high can the Boilermakers rise?
Big 12 pecking order: Baylor is the best team in the league, Oklahoma is likely seventh, but the rest is up for grabs. Kansas, West Virginia, Texas, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech can all make a case to be ranked somewhere from Nos. 9 to 16 overall.
Does the ACC or Big East deserve a top-16 team? Right now, yes. I have Villanova and Virginia toward the tail end of the rankings this week, with Florida State just outside. But there’s no guarantee any of the three will be in the top 16 next week. Nova and the Noles are struggling, and Virginia just snapped out of a funk.
And just one more thing before we get to the awards and rankings. This is the final Power Rankings of the season — so thanks for reading for the past four months. We’ll be back on Championship Monday night with the Way-Too-Early Top 25 for (what we all hope will be a much more normal) 2021-22 season.
Team of the Week: Illinois Fighting Illini
Road wins at Michigan and Ohio State? Yeah, that’ll do. When Ayo Dosunmu was hurt late against Michigan State, it looked like the Fighting Illini’s hopes at a 1-seed were finished. Not only did they lose to the Spartans, but Dosunmu was going to miss time. Two weeks later, and Illinois looks like a legitimate national title contender. The week started with a trip to Ann Arbor to face a Michigan team that had vaulted to No. 2 in the rankings and had lost once all year. Without Dosunmu, Illinois dominated Michigan 76-53. Trent Frazier stepped up offensively, Andre Curbelo was terrific as the team’s primary playmaker, and Kofi Cockburn held his own down low against Hunter Dickinson. And Illinois was elite defensively.
Beating Michigan — on the road, by 23, without its best player — might have been enough for Illinois to win Team of the Week on its own. But then Saturday came. Brad Underwood got Dosunmu back for the trip to Ohio State, and the All-American guard picked up where he left off before the facial injury. Masked up, Dosunmu scored 19 points, with the best closer in college basketball scoring six of those 19 in the final 2:13. Curbelo was once again fantastic off the bench. In the four games since Dosunmu’s injury, including Saturday’s return, Curbelo is averaging 15.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists.
Player of the Week: Johni Broome, Morehead State Eagles
Johni Broome is going to be a name to watch over the next couple of weeks — and the next couple of years. The freshman big man led Morehead State to an Ohio Valley Conference tournament championship and an automatic bid to the NCAA tournament, while also establishing himself as one of the top young interior players in college basketball. Broome notched three double-doubles in three OVC tourney games.
He opened with 14 points and 11 rebounds against Southeast Missouri State, then followed it up with 17 points, 13 rebounds and two blocks in a semifinal win over Eastern Kentucky. But Broome had the best game of his young college career on Saturday night against 1-seed Belmont, finishing with 27 points, 12 rebounds — including seven on the offensive end — two assists and two blocks. It’s the second time in two weeks he dominated Belmont, as he finished the regular season with 20 points, 12 rebounds and three blocks in the finale.
The 6-foot-10 Florida native had 13 double-doubles this season and averaged 13.9 points and 9.0 rebounds. Broome will give Preston Spradlin and Morehead State a unique X-factor in their upset bid next week.
Win of the Week: Michigan State Spartans 70, Michigan Wolverines 64
I don’t know if Sunday’s game between Michigan State and Michigan was a must-win for the Spartans’ at-large hopes, but Tom Izzo’s team left things very late this season and didn’t have much time to improve the résumé. It didn’t help MSU was blown out by the Wolverines on Thursday. But Michigan State answered any remaining questions about its at-large candidacy on Sunday, leading the entire second half en route to a win over Michigan.
Rocket Watts was terrific, scoring 21 points and dishing out four assists, while Aaron Henry continued his stellar late-season play with 18 points. The game was back and forth for most of the first half, but Michigan State pulled away midway through the second half — until Michigan made a run to cut the lead to two with just over one minute remaining. The Spartans responded with a Joshua Langford 3-pointer to provide some breathing room and ultimately seal the victory. Michigan State still doesn’t have great metrics, but the Spartans have wins over Michigan, Illinois and Ohio State — a group of elite wins unparalleled among bubble teams. They’re dancing.
Coach of the Week: Pat Kelsey, Winthrop Eagles
We’ve shown love to a number of mid-major coaches in this category over the course of the season, but Kelsey hasn’t made an appearance yet — and he has done one of the best jobs in the country. Well, what better time than the week after Winthrop clinches an NCAA tournament appearance with a Big South Conference tournament title?
The Eagles ran roughshod through the conference tournament, winning their three games by an average of 25.7 points — including the 27-point title game victory. Kelsey has now won four regular-season championships in the past six seasons and three conference tournament titles in the past five seasons. (Winthrop won the conference tournament last season, but then the NCAA tournament was canceled.)
Much of the mid-major attention this season has been focused on Drake’s unbeaten start, Loyola Chicago’s consistency and Belmont’s winning streak — but Winthrop has lost just one game all season, a two-point home loss to UNC Asheville in a game the Eagles led by eight in the final five minutes. The Eagles play fast, they have a nightly triple-double threat in Chandler Vaudrin and big man D.J. Burns Jr. is a former ESPN 100 recruit. Keep an eye on them in your bracket.
Three teams with questions
UCLA Bruins: If Tahj Eaddy‘s corner 3 in the final seconds doesn’t go in on Saturday to give USC a win over UCLA, the Bruins aren’t in this category. But it did, so they are. That’s three losses in a row to end the regular season, and while they’re still fine for an NCAA tournament bid, their seed is plummeting. They’ve beaten one NCAA tournament team: Colorado, back on Jan. 2.
Oklahoma Sooners: The Sooners have lost four in a row to end the season, and their solid spot along the 2-line in projected brackets feels like it happened a long time ago. All four losses were by five points or fewer, but they’re just 14-9 overall and 9-8 entering the Big 12 tournament. They need to shore things up on the defensive end; OU has allowed at least 1.08 points per possession to three straight opponents.
Xavier Musketeers: Things have gone horribly awry for the Musketeers since returning from their third COVID-19 pause in February. They’ve lost five of their past seven games to finish below .500 in the Big East. It means they’re going to have to beat Butler and Creighton to have a real shot at the NCAA tournament. Xavier has been held to 0.98 points per possession or fewer in three of its past four games.
Power Rankings
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (24-0)
Previous ranking: 1
This week: WCC tournament
Gonzaga was off this past week, but the Bulldogs return to action on Monday in the WCC semifinals. Two more wins, and the Zags will enter the NCAA tournament with an unblemished record.
There was some Gonzaga news despite the lack of games, though. Mark Few’s team dominated the WCC awards, unsurprisingly. Corey Kispert won Player of the Year, Mark Few won Coach of the Year, Jalen Suggs won Newcomer of the Year and Andrew Nembhard won Sixth Man of the Year. They had four players named first-team All-WCC, one player on the second team and two on the All-Freshman team. The most eye-opening choice? Oumar Ballo on the freshman team. The redshirt freshman has four points and four DNPs in his past nine games, playing 14 minutes total over that stretch. If you’re looking for your next Gonzaga breakout big, though, Ballo might be the guy. He has put in a lot of extra work over the past couple of seasons in the program. The league’s head coaches might be a step ahead on this one.
2. Baylor Bears (21-1)
Previous ranking: 3
This week: Big 12 tournament
They’re baaack. Baylor bounced back from its first loss of the season with a trio of wins over West Virginia, Oklahoma State and Texas Tech in a six-day span. The Bears are back at No. 2 and back in the elite tier behind Gonzaga. This week was all about Baylor’s perimeter players. Against West Virginia, Jared Butler went for 25 points and six assists, while Davion Mitchell had 20 points and five dimes. In the win over Oklahoma State, Butler once again led the way with 22 points and five assists, but MaCio Teague had 19 points and five assists. And then against Texas Tech, Teague was the man, going for 35 points and 10 3-pointers. When the chips are down, Scott Drew is putting the ball in the hands of his three guards and telling them to go make a play. And more often than not, it works.
3. Illinois Fighting Illini (20-6)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: Big Ten tournament
Illinois’ win on Saturday night likely wrapped up a 1-seed for the Fighting Illini — meaning the four teams (Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan, Illinois) on the top line are fairly locked in. Had Ohio State won, the fourth spot would have been up for debate, as the Buckeyes would then have a sweep of Illinois — a pretty convincing trump card if it was that close on Selection Sunday. But even an Illinois quarterfinal loss to Rutgers or Maryland or Indiana or whoever combined with tournament titles from Iowa or Alabama might not be enough to knock the Illini off the top line. They have the most Quadrant 1 wins of anyone in college basketball, rank No. 4 in the NET and No. 4 in Strength of Record, and are in the top six of most relevant metrics. They’ve won 11 of their past 12 and finished with the most wins in the best conference in the country.
4. Michigan Wolverines (19-3)
Previous ranking: 2
This week: Big Ten tournament
It was only a few days ago when Michigan looked like the biggest threat to Gonzaga for a national championship. But the Wolverines lost twice last week, first getting blown out at home by an Ayo Dosunmu-less Illinois team and then losing the season finale to a desperate Michigan State team in East Lansing. So what happened? Against Illinois, they just laid a complete egg. The Fighting Illini were terrific defensively, and Michigan only made two 3-pointers. When Juwan Howard’s group needed a bucket to slow down Illinois’ runs, they couldn’t find one. On Sunday, the Wolverines again struggled shooting the ball from the perimeter. In the two losses this past week, Michigan shot a combined 9-for-29 from behind the arc. It also lost starting guard Eli Brooks, an elite defender and capable offensive player, to an ankle injury against Michigan State. Can Howard and the Wolverines regain their magic during the Big Ten tournament?
5. Alabama Crimson Tide (21-6)
Previous ranking: 6
This week: SEC tournament
I was all set to write about Alabama’s offensive issues — and I’ll still hit on those in a second — but then the Crimson Tide went out and dropped an outrageously impressive second half against Georgia on Saturday. They scored 59 points, shot 63% from the field, 80% from 3 and also made 13 free throws. What’s remarkable is that Alabama still got to only 1.04 points per possession and 48.5% shooting for the game.
And that gets us back to the Crimson Tide’s struggles on the offensive end. They’ve scored more than one point per possession in just four of their past 11 games, making more than 36% of their 3-point attempts in just two of those 11 games. They also had 22 turnovers against Georgia. Perhaps the second half against the Bulldogs snapped them out of their funk; John Petty Jr. had one of his best games in a while, struggling Joshua Primo scored in double-figures and Herbert Jones made some plays on the offensive end as well.
6. Iowa Hawkeyes (20-7)
Previous ranking: 7
This week: Big Ten tournament
Iowa might have the best chance at developing a case for a 1-seed during Champ Week, given that the Hawkeyes will likely have to beat two or three top-10 teams to win the tournament title. Even that might not get them to the top line, though. The bigger story for the Hawkeyes will be the status of Joe Wieskamp. The junior forward played just 12 minutes against Wisconsin before leaving with a lower right leg injury. Wieskamp wouldn’t return. Fran McCaffery said after the game he’s day-to-day with a sprain. Wieskamp missing any of the postseason would be a huge blow to Iowa’s ceiling. He’s the Hawkeyes’ second-most consistent scorer and had 12 points in those opening 12 minutes Sunday. With him out of the game, freshman forward Keegan Murray saw an increased role, and he responded well, finishing with 13 points, six rebounds and three blocks.
7. Ohio State Buckeyes (18-8)
Previous ranking: 5
This week: Big Ten tournament
Ohio State is not entering the postseason in a good place. After seven straight wins put the Buckeyes squarely in position for a 1-seed, they lost their last four games to end the regular season — finishing fifth in the Big Ten, a position in the standings that would have seemed unfathomably low a couple of weeks ago.
So what’s going on? It starts on the defensive end. Ohio State allowed 1.02 points per possession last season, 10th in the Big Ten in that category. This season, the Buckeyes are 10th again but are now allowing 1.05 points per possession. For most of the season, their elite offense was enough to overshadow their issues at the other end of the floor. But they’ve allowed 1.37, 1.04, 1.11 and 1.14 points per possession in the past four games, with all four opponents shooting 50% or better from inside the arc. Combine that with offensive struggles from the perimeter, and Ohio State needs to figure things out moving forward.
8. Houston Cougars (21-3)
Previous ranking: 10
This week: AAC tournament
Tramon Mark! One of the best shots of the season happened in the Cougars’ season finale, with Mark catching a 50-foot bounce pass at midcourt, taking one dribble and banking in a 3-pointer at the buzzer to give Houston a win over Memphis. It was more impactful for Memphis, as it likely ended the Tigers’ at-large hopes. But it gives Houston some momentum entering the postseason. Sunday’s game was also another stellar effort from DeJon Jarreau, who is playing his best offensive basketball of the season down the stretch. Over his past seven games (he sat out the win over Our Lady of the Lake), Jarreau is averaging 16.1 points, 5.1 rebounds and 4.3 assists — while shooting 54.2% from the field and 48.3% from 3-point range. He’s providing Kelvin Sampson with a consistent complementary option to Quentin Grimes, with Marcus Sasser cooling off after a huge middle third of the season.
0:40
Houston’s Tramon Mark nails the off-balanced, buzzer-beating 3-pointer to lift the Cougars over the Tigers.
9. Kansas Jayhawks (19-8)
Previous ranking: 9
This week: Big 12 tournament
Kansas trying to get an extra game in during its break between the end of the regular season and the Big 12 tournament almost backfired, as the Jayhawks needed to come back from a double-digit deficit to beat UTEP at home on Thursday. One thing I’ve noticed about Kansas in recent weeks — and I talked about this in relation to Gonzaga a couple weeks ago — is its lack of reliance on the perimeter shot. During the Jayhawks’ recent stretch of seven wins in eight games, they’ve shot above 33.3% from 3 just once. They rank No. 8 in the Big 12 in 3-point percentage. They have only three players who have made more than 15 3s, and only one of them shoots above 35% from behind the arc. Some of this coincides with David McCormack‘s emergence on the interior, but it’s an interesting trend nonetheless.
10. Arkansas Razorbacks (21-5)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: SEC tournament
There have been plenty of freshmen getting publicity on a national scale this season, from Cade Cunningham and Evan Mobley to Jalen Suggs and Hunter Dickinson. But Moses Moody‘s numbers are as good as anyone in that elite tier, and he’s finishing the regular season on a tear. Moody scored 28 points in wins over South Carolina and Texas A&M this past week, shooting 10-for-13 on 2-pointers and 9-for-17 on 3-pointers and missing just one free throw. He also grabbed a combined 12 rebounds and picked up four steals. I think he can make a really strong case for SEC Player of the Year given his recent performances (although LSU’s Cameron Thomas, another freshman, has an argument too). Moody is a superb athlete shooting nearly 39% from 3-point range, and he has made strides in other facets of his game. He has played himself into lottery consideration.
11. West Virginia Mountaineers (18-8)
Previous ranking: 8
This week: Big 12 tournament
If it feels like West Virginia is in a close game late in the second half every time you watch the Mountaineers, you’re probably right. Twelve of their 26 games were decided by five points or fewer, and 17 of their 26 games were decided by single-digits. Of their eight losses, seven were decided by five points or fewer. That trend continued this past week, with all three games decided by single digits and both losses decided by five points. While there’s certainly some variance involved, West Virginia’s defense down the stretch of some games has left a lot to be desired. Oklahoma State shot 64.3% in the second half on Saturday, and Baylor shot 57.9% in the second half and overtime. That’s not going to cut it in the NCAA tournament, regardless of how improved the Mountaineers are offensively.
12. Texas Longhorns (17-7)
Previous ranking: 14
This week: Big 12 tournament
The narrative surrounding Texas is that the Longhorns aren’t playing as well as they were earlier in the season, and while that might be true, they’ve still won six of eight to end the season and were the only team to beat Kansas in the last month. So don’t write off Shaka Smart’s team in March. What could take Texas to the next level in the next few weeks is forwards Greg Brown and Kai Jones producing at the same time. Both players have shown flashes of their ability this season — but the future first-rounders have rarely done it during the same game. Against Iowa State last week, they combined for 29 points and 12 rebounds, and Texas rolled over the Cyclones. In the win over Kansas, it was 23 points and 12 boards. They’re both versatile, athletic matchup nightmares for opponents and can really cause issues in the dance.
13. Oklahoma State Cowboys (18-7)
Previous ranking: 15
This week: Big 12 tournament
It’s way too early to look at next season, especially because every player in the country can return to college next season if they so choose, but Saturday’s game against West Virginia gave us a glimpse at what Oklahoma State could look like in the post-Cade Cunningham era. And it’s promising. Sophomore big man Kalib Boone is impressive nearly every time I watch him play; he has scored in double-figures in five of his past six games, and is also one of the best shot blockers in the Big 12. Sophomore guard Avery Anderson III seems ready to emerge after scoring 31 points against the Mountaineers. Matthew-Alexander Moncrieffe is a supremely talented player who is scratching the surface this season as a freshman. Obviously the loss of Cunningham will set them back, but Mike Boynton has a team in Stillwater built to last over the next couple seasons.
14. Villanova Wildcats (16-5)
Previous ranking: 11
This week: Big East tournament
On paper, Villanova’s performances without Collin Gillespie — and then Justin Moore — aren’t all that bad. The Wildcats still beat Creighton by 12 on Wednesday, and then lost by two at Providence, which wouldn’t have been hard to imagine even with a healthy Gillespie in the fold. But if Moore joins Gillespie on the sideline for an extended period of time, Jay Wright will be without his two best ball handlers and two of his better 3-point shooters. It’s going to be hard to run the Wildcats’ preferred offense without guards who can create shots for themselves and others. Only one player had more than one assist against Providence, and that was Chris Arcidiacono, who played 16 minutes total this season before Saturday. Jeremiah Robinson-Earl took on more of a playmaking role in the second half against Creighton, but then you’re taking him away from where he’s at his best — around the basket. Seeing how Wright tweaks his offense in the Big East tournament will be worth watching.
15. Virginia Cavaliers (17-6)
Previous ranking: In the waiting room
This week: ACC tournament
Three ACC regular-season titles in the past four seasons for Tony Bennett — and the one year during that stretch when the Cavaliers didn’t finish in first, they won 11 of their final 12 games and ended up just one game back of Florida State in the final standings. It still doesn’t feel like Virginia is clicking on all cylinders despite winning two in a row to end the regular season, but the defense looked a bit better this past week as opposed to how it looked during the three-game losing streak. Bennett has to hope Kihei Clark breaks out of his slump in the postseason; the junior point guard had just four points on 2-for-11 shooting last week. On the plus side, Sam Hauser continues to play well and Trey Murphy III averaged 14.5 points this past week after totaling just 19 points in the three losses.
16. Purdue Boilermakers (18-8)
Previous ranking: Unranked
This week: Big Ten tournament
Purdue makes its Power Rankings debut in the final week of the regular season. Matt Painter did one of the more underrated coaching jobs this season, as his team pushed itself into top-four consideration by winning its last five games and 11 of its last 14. The Boilermakers have been outstanding on the defensive end of the floor most of the season, allowing just four opponents to score more than a point per possession since the calendar flipped to 2021. Offensively, they’re heavily reliant on their ability to score inside the arc. They’re 12th in the Big Ten in 3-point percentage and 11th in percentage of points from 3-pointers. But Purdue overcomes that with dominant interior play led by Trevion Williams, one of the most efficient offensive players in the country, and 7-foot-4 freshman center Zach Edey, who has scored in double-figures in five of past seven games and totaled 41 points in wins over Wisconsin and Indiana this past week.
Dropped out: Florida State (No. 13), Texas Tech (No. 16)
In the waiting room
Florida State Seminoles: Two losses in the Seminoles’ final three games to end the regular season gave the title to Virginia, but it also raised some questions about them moving forward. In each of its four losses, Florida State shot below 30% from 3-point range and turned it over on at least 18% of its possessions. Combine that with a defense that’s not as imposing as it has been in recent years, and there are some weaknesses to exploit.
USC Trojans: The Trojans bounced back with two straight wins this past week, including arguably their best performance of the conference season against Stanford and then a buzzer-beating win to complete the sweep of crosstown rival UCLA. They don’t have a ton of great wins at the top of their résumé (their best win is BYU), but NET and other metrics are in their favor.
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Chris Beard’s team looks like it figured out its offensive issues; the Red Raiders scored at least 1.14 points per possession in each of their three games this past week. But their defensive performance against Baylor — 1.38 points per possession — was their worst statistically since Chris Beard took over in Lubbock. Their defense hasn’t been as imposing this season as in the past, and Sunday’s effort won’t make Beard happy.