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John GasawayESPN Insider
The last time an NCAA tournament was held without Tom Izzo, the Michigan State head coach was 42 years old and had just wrapped up his second season in East Lansing. In other words, it’s been a while.
Can the now 66-year-old coach continue his remarkable streak of 22 consecutive NCAA appearances? That answer looked like it was going to be a definite “no” for the balance of this season. Now the correct response is: “possibly.”
With wins over Indiana, Illinois and now Ohio State, the Spartans have resurrected their season and ignited hope that this team might indeed earn an at-large bid. Needless to say, it won’t be easy.
This is a team with a 13-9 record and a 7-9 mark in conference play. Moreover, even after this impressive trio of wins, MSU’s NET ranking is still on the low side for an at-large aspirant.
Nevertheless, Izzo’s group has clearly reached the “in the conversation” phase of these ascents. And, if nothing else, Michigan State’s December victory at Duke is looking far more impressive than it did just two weeks ago.
Izzo has searched high and low for productivity on offense this season, and in their past few games the Spartans have finally come to life on that side of the ball. The team put up 52 points in the second half of its road win against the Hoosiers, and it sustained that kind of effort for the full 40 minutes against the Fighting Illini. Aaron Henry scored 47 points in the two wins while committing just three turnovers in 79 minutes of playing time.
The scoring was less plentiful against the Buckeyes, as both teams clocked in near one point per possession. Still, Michigan State forced enough misses and made enough baskets in transition to topple OSU.
Add it all up and you have the best 120 minutes of basketball we’ve seen from the Spartans this season. Think of that three-game stretch as the resurgence that has landed MSU on the bubble and given Izzo a shot at still another tournament appearance.
Here’s our current projection of the bubble:
Bids from traditional one-bid leagues (minus the Ivy): 20 teams
Locks: 21 teams
The bubble: 37 teams for 27 available spots
Should be in: 14 teams
Work to do: 23 teams
ACC | Big 12 | Big East | Big Ten | Pac-12 | SEC | American | Others
ACC
Locks: Virginia, Florida State
Should be in
After a 17-day pause due to COVID-19 issues and then a 16-point loss at home to Georgia Tech, the Hokies are something of an unknown quantity. Mike Young’s team entered its game against the Yellow Jackets with a No. 6 seed in the mock brackets, a relatively lofty position attained through wins over Villanova, Virginia, Clemson and Duke. Keve Aluma followed his coach from Wofford to Blacksburg and has emerged as one of the best players in the ACC. The profile and the talent are no mystery, but how Virginia Tech responds will determine where the Hokies land in the bracket next month.
A Clemson team that seemed highly erratic in January has rather quietly spent February shutting down opposing offenses and winning games. The Tigers are still being shown as a No. 7 seed in mock brackets, but their record is up to 8-5 in ACC play. Indeed, there’s a fair chance Brad Brownell’s men will win out, with games still to be played at home against Miami and Pitt and on the road against Syracuse. The Tigers’ defense has held opponents under a point per possession in three of its past four outings.
Work to do
For a team coming off a 99-54 loss at North Carolina, nothing could have been timelier than a 12-point win at home over Notre Dame. Louisville had been looking like the shakiest member of “Should be in” that Bubble Watch has beheld in many a moon, but perhaps the victory over the Fighting Irish (one recorded without David Johnson) will steady Chris Mack’s men. The Cards have been seen as a likely No. 8 or No. 9 seed for the past two weeks, and it was vital the team find its footing at home before the schedule takes a more challenging turn. Louisville will close the season at Duke, at Virginia Tech and at home against Virginia.
This season has thrown many challenges at teams and their evaluators, but North Carolina has come up with a wrinkle that’s new even for a wild 2021. What do you do with a projected No. 9 seed from the ACC that loses emphatically on its home floor to a 10-12 Big East team … during the last week of February? Marquette came to North Carolina at this unusual time of year and came away with an 82-70 victory. For the record, that’s a Quad 3 defeat, UNC’s first of the season. That likely will knock the Tar Heels off the No. 9 line in mock brackets, and now Roy Williams’ team will face Florida State in Chapel Hill.
How many more wins do the Blue Devils need in order to earn an at-large bid? While the victory over Syracuse was compelling due to the “play-out game” nature of the contest, it is still, in profile terms, a Quad 2 win over an opponent unlikely to reach the NCAA tournament. That means there’s still work to be done in Durham, starting with a victory in the upcoming home game against Louisville. Coach K’s team has games remaining not only against the Cardinals but also at Georgia Tech and at North Carolina. Both road dates will present Quad 1 opportunities, and a tournament hopeful with a NET ranking in the 50s, even one named Duke, could really use both of those wins on its profile. Alternately, the Blue Devils could pick up a Quad 1 victory or two in the ACC tournament, but two more of them would be advisable.
Beating Virginia Tech in Blacksburg is a really nice win, but make no mistake, the Yellow Jackets are no one-game wonder. (Ask Florida State, Clemson and North Carolina.) Georgia Tech has been creeping into bubble position for a while now, and even before the tipoff against the Hokies this is a team that was “next four out” material in Joe Lunardi’s eyes. Josh Pastner’s men have played excellent defense against the ACC while building a NET ranking that blends in comfortably with those carried by Louisville and Duke. The Yellow Jackets are now clearly in the conversation, and their upcoming home games against Syracuse and the Blue Devils loom as true bubble showdowns.
While Syracuse could theoretically earn an at-large bid, Boeheim’s men are closing in on the last desperate scenario embraced by die-hard fans. (We are all die-hard fans at Bubble Watch HQ. Salute.) These are the true believers who respond to every dire bubble situation with, “Yes, but what if my team wins out and loses in the tournament title game?” If Syracuse wins out, posts a 9-6 record in conference play and loses in the ACC title game, you’ll be looking at a profile that added its first Quad 1 win of the season at Georgia Tech and then, most likely, recorded one or two more at the ACC tournament. Possibly that would be enough. Barely. Win out, Orange.
Big 12
Locks: Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Kansas
Should be in
The Red Raiders’ three consecutive losses — at home against West Virginia and on the road versus Kansas and Oklahoma State — are being viewed by mock brackets and laptops alike with a notable lack of concern. Texas Tech’s projected seed has stayed on the Nos. 4 and 5 lines, and the team’s NET ranking was still in the top 15 nationally at tipoff of the contest against the Cowboys. The prevailing view is that the Big 12 is just this strong; and indeed, this challenge will continue for the Red Raiders with a home game against Texas coming next.
Throughout the month of February, the Cowboys have been a model of stability in projected brackets — a No. 8 or No. 7 seed. If Mike Boynton’s team delivers on that promise, it will represent the best seed the program has earned since a No. 5 seed in 2013. Cade Cunningham is at the point of attack for the Big 12’s fastest-paced team in league play. At the other end of the floor, OSU ranks alongside Kansas and Oklahoma as having one of the best interior defenses in the conference.
Big East
Work to do
The Musketeers are at risk of dropping out of the projected field after losing three of their past four games. The latest defeat occurred at Providence, a game that Xavier began with a No. 12 seed next to its name in mock brackets. Travis Steele’s men will now host Creighton before closing out the season on the road against Georgetown and Marquette. Zach Freemantle is a combination featured scorer and rebound workhorse at 6-foot-9, and as a team the Musketeers are excellent at limiting Big East opponents to one shot. The problem for the Musketeers has been that those single shots by opposing offenses quite often are makes.
The No. 10 seed that Seton Hall carried in bracket projections just two games ago is long gone. The Pirates have dropped road games at Georgetown and Butler, and, at a minimum, Seton Hall is headed for an introduction to the No. 12 line. (Make that a reintroduction. It’s where this team was at the beginning of February.) If up-and-coming teams elsewhere on the bubble keep winning, Seton Hall could be bumped out of the projected field entirely. Kevin Willard’s group has two more regular-season chances to impress the committee. Games remain against UConn in Newark and St. John’s in Queens.
Purveyors of mock brackets are showing Dan Hurley’s group as either one of the very last teams in the field or as one of the first ones out. The danger for the Huskies now is simply that the schedule isn’t necessarily brimming with chances for a team in this position to play its way comfortably into the field. UConn closes its season with home games against Georgetown and Marquette and also visits Seton Hall. Obviously, a win on the road against the Pirates would be the most valuable prize, but will it be sufficient?
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin
Should be in
In a season in which headlines in the Big Ten have been dominated by the likes of Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois and Iowa, the Boilermakers have quietly put themselves in position to earn a very good spot in the bracket in their own right. Matt Painter’s men have games remaining at Penn State and at home against Wisconsin and Indiana. If, for the sake of discussion, Purdue won out, you would be looking at a team that is 18-8 and 13-6 in the historically strong Big Ten. While the Boilermakers are currently seen as a likely No. 6 seed, a few more wins could change that number.
Steve Pikiell’s team will finish Big Ten play no worse than 9-11, and, with games remaining at Nebraska and Minnesota, it’s possible the Scarlet Knights will better that mark. The team’s No. 8 seed in mock brackets and wins over Illinois, Purdue, Maryland and a season sweep of Indiana all say that Rutgers is going to the tournament. Yes, anything can happen, and, no, Bubble Watch doesn’t recommend that the Scarlet Knights go 0-2 to end the regular season and then 0-1 in the Big Ten tournament. Nevertheless, this is a stronger position than anyone thought possible after Rutgers lost five straight.
Work to do
While losing a game at Rutgers need not be detrimental to a team’s tournament chances, the defeat suffered by Indiana in Piscataway, New Jersey, does indeed have that effect. The Hoosiers entered the contest projected as a No. 12 seed. Now, at 12-11 and 7-9 in the Big Ten, Archie Miller’s team has no room to fall. Michigan is coming to IU this weekend, and a win over the Wolverines would certainly turn this profile around (a profile that, after all, still contains a season sweep over Iowa). After that, Indiana plays road games at Michigan State and Purdue. How many wins do the Hoosiers get from that three-game stretch? Two would be heroic, one might not be enough, and zero will mean IU needs a near-legendary run in the Big Ten tournament.
When the Terrapins were 10-10 and 4-9 in the Big Ten, we here at Bubble Watch HQ had to preface any remarks about the team with an explanation for why Mark Turgeon’s group was still here in the first place. No need for disclaimers anymore. Maryland has won four straight, including wins over Minnesota and on the road at Rutgers. Now you’re looking at a 14-10 and 8-9 team with a top-35 NET ranking and an embarrassment of riches in the “good win” column (at Illinois, at Wisconsin, at Rutgers, at home against Purdue and the season sweep of the Golden Gophers). Purveyors of mock brackets have taken note, and the Terps are commonly shown as one of the last teams in the field.
Our ESPN colleague Robbie Hummel put it best: “Michigan State may not have an NCAA tournament resume, but this is an NCAA tournament team.” To be sure, the resume has improved markedly with wins over Indiana, Illinois and Ohio State. That three-game run should be sufficient to put a 7-9 Big Ten team with a low NET ranking in “next four out” territory. To actually play their way into the field of 68 (and to do so on the strength of the regular season primarily), the Spartans will in all probability need at least three wins in their final four games. MSU has a road date at Maryland, hosts Indiana and finishes with a two-game, home-and-home series against Michigan. Perhaps more likely than this 3-1 finish, however, is a scenario where Michigan State arrives at the Big Ten tournament with work still to be done.
When you lose at home to Northwestern and you were projected as a No. 12 seed before tipoff, there’s a decent chance you’ll simply disappear from the Watch entirely before the next sunrise. So let’s come to a proper understanding. The only — and Bubble Watch means only — thing keeping Minnesota here as a team potentially in line for an at-large bid is the fact that Richard Pitino’s men have a favorable schedule the rest of the way. In fact, by Big Ten 2021 standards, you could call it extremely favorable. The Golden Gophers will play road games at Nebraska and Penn State before finishing up at home against Rutgers. Win out and you’re 16-11 and 9-11 in the Big Ten. Lose one of those three, on the other hand, and, well, let’s just say it would be better to win those games.
Pac-12
Locks: USC
Should be in
The Buffaloes posted their most impressive NET win of the season by far in thrashing USC 80-62 in Boulder. UCLA will be the next visitor to the CU Events Center, and a two-game sweep of the SoCal teams would almost certainly lift Colorado higher in the projected bracket. If the Buffaloes do climb a seed line or two, it will mark a return to familiar territory. Tad Boyle’s team was shown as a No. 6 seed in mid-February until losses to Cal and Oregon sent CU down to the No. 8 line. With the victory over the Trojans, however, Tad Boyle’s men appear capable of playing their way into a higher seed. Jeriah Horne came off the bench for Colorado and tormented USC with 24 points in 28 minutes.
Since losing back-to-back road games at USC and Washington State, the Bruins have reeled off four straight victories. Mick Cronin’s team now sits alone atop the Pac-12 standings and has an excellent opportunity to capture the program’s first conference title since 2013. Yet UCLA has held steady as a projected No. 9 seed throughout the current winning streak. Purveyors of mock brackets look at this profile and class the victory over Colorado at Pauley Pavilion as a relatively unimpressive “best” win. The Bruins fare better, however, with metrics such as strength of record (which would rate them as a No. 6 seed). This disparity between wins and bracket position will surely grow less pronounced if the Bruins continue their victorious ways in their upcoming game at Colorado.
In the midst of a demanding portion of the schedule, Oregon recorded a three-point win at Stanford thanks in large part to 24 points from Chris Duarte. The Ducks have been maintaining their position as a potential No. 9 seed in mock brackets, and holding on to that spot will require endurance. After finishing the visit to the Bay Area with a game against Cal, Dana Altman’s men will turn right around in a little more than 50 hours and play a home game against Arizona. UCLA comes to Eugene two nights later, and Oregon will finish at Oregon State. In other words, the Ducks are about to play four games in eight days.
Work to do
Oscar da Silva missed the game against Oregon (due to “a lower-extremity injury” suffered in practice), and the Cardinal lost 71-68. In the days leading up to the meeting with the Ducks, Stanford’s position in the projected bracket had shifted slightly but no less ominously. A team that was consistently shown as one of the last one or two names in the field began to inhabit the “first four out” lists instead. Of course, that still leaves the Cardinal within striking distance. If da Silva can return healthy, Stanford faces a two-game season. With wins at home against Oregon State and on the road at USC, Jerod Haase’s team could find itself back on the right side of the cut line.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee
Should be in
Bubble Watch is serious this time. This absolutely, positively will be the last time Missouri appears down here in “Should be in.” We’ve been trying for weeks to name some SEC team besides Alabama a lock. But every time the Tigers or Tennessee get close to that hallowed status, they take a step back. Now Cuonzo Martin’s men are holding on to a projected No. 6 seed as the end of the regular season rapidly approaches. A home game against Texas A&M is up next for Mizzou. Prepare to be locked!
It would appear the Gators are pretty well locked in to a No. 8 seed or something close to that in the field of 68. Wins in remaining games at Kentucky and at home against Missouri most likely would not elevate that seed dramatically, and two losses in all probability wouldn’t drop Florida more than a seed line or so. If it does indeed play out that way, Mike White and his players will deserve a great deal of credit. This is a team that lost its preseason SEC player of the year, Keyontae Johnson, in December, yet appears to have played its way solidly into the NCAA tournament field.
Chances are Will Wade won’t be happy with his team losing by 13 at Georgia. Nevertheless, it has been a very good month, all in all, for the Tigers. In early February, LSU was precariously situated on the No. 11 line in most mock brackets. Now this team is seen as a potential No. 7 or No. 8 seed. Even after the loss to the Bulldogs, the Tigers are still keeping pace with Alabama as the best per-possession offense in SEC play. LSU is suspect on defense and downright worrisome on the defensive glass, but this offense can and definitely should worry a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the round of 32.
Work to do
Things looked bleak there after losing at home to Mississippi State, but Ole Miss is still in the mix. Or at least adjacent to it. The Rebels posted a seven-point win at Missouri, thus recording the season sweep over the Tigers. That’s a good building block on the profile, as is the win over Tennessee. There’s no way Ole Miss can play its way into the tournament with its remaining regular-season games (at Vanderbilt and at home against Kentucky), but that’s where the SEC tournament comes in. A bracket conveniently structured to give the Rebels a chance to upset both the Volunteers and Alabama — plus history’s greatest concentration of bid thieves — could at least make this a photo finish, right?
American
Locks: Houston
Work to do
With 40 minutes of basketball, the Shockers launched themselves from perhaps the third or fourth team under “Next four out” to quite possibly the middle of the action in “First four out.” A five-point win at home over a projected No. 2 seed like Houston will have that kind of impact. To be sure, Wichita State will have to work to keep its spot on the bubble. Two games remain to be played against SMU, and Isaac Brown’s team will finish the season with road games at Tulane and Temple. But, at 13-4 and with a win over the Cougars to their credit, the Shockers are now close enough to a bid to taste it. Well done, Coach Brown.
Maybe someday in the far off future the committee will be replaced entirely by a metric that measures how difficult it would be to duplicate any team’s wins and losses given the opponents and venues where that record was compiled. When that happens and “strength of record” (SOR), “wins above bubble” (WAB) or something similar is in the driver’s seat, it will be good news for SMU. In a SOR world, the 11-4 Mustangs would be a No. 10 seed. In the real world, however, Tim Jankovich’s men rank in the high 50s on the NET and inhabit the far outer fringes of the bubble. Keep winning, SMU.
Others
Should be in
Congratulations to the Ramblers, winners of a close game for the first time all season. Prior a victory at home over Valparaiso by the score of 54-52, Loyola Chicago was 0-3 in games decided by five points or less. Porter Moser’s team still has two more home games to play, both against Southern Illinois. With their top-10 NET ranking and 19-4 record, the Ramblers are well on their way to the No. 9 seed they’re currently earning in mock brackets.
With their overtime win at home over Boise State, the Aztecs are clearly inching closer to “lock” territory. Brian Dutcher’s team was already being seen as a likely No. 9 seed, and this group hasn’t lost a game now in over five weeks. SDSU is 17-4 with UCLA, Colorado State and now the Broncos. A second win in the two-game series against BSU will earn San Diego State a categorical upgrade.
Work to do
Playing without leading scorer Bones Hyland, VCU eked out a much-needed 67-65 win at home against Saint Louis. Keep in mind the Rams had seen their projected seed drop down to the No. 11 line in the wake of this team’s surprising overtime loss at home to George Mason. A second consecutive defeat on its home floor could have exposed VCU to some serious peril in the bracket. Instead, Mike Rhoades’ group is 17-5 with wins over all three of its fellow A-10 bubble hopefuls: St. Bonaventure, Richmond and now the Billikens. Hyland missed the SLU game with a sprained ankle but is expected to return soon.
Is Boise State playing for a seed or for a bid in its two-game series at San Diego State? Right now, after the Broncos dropped the first game 78-66 in overtime, that answer would be a seed. Boise State entered the series against the Aztecs projected as a No. 10 seed, and certainly there’s no shame in losing in OT on the road against what will likely be the league’s highest-seeded entrant in the NCAA tournament. The only asterisk here is that a win in Game 2 would go a long way toward preserving that cushion of two seed lines beneath BSU. A second loss, on the other hand, would at least have the potential to make things a bit more tense in Boise on Selection Sunday.
By completing a two-game sweep of Evansville in Des Moines, Iowa, the Bulldogs are now 23-2. This week, however, the team announced that starting point guard Roman Penn would miss the rest of the season due to a foot injury suffered in the first game against the Purple Aces. Drake has already played its past five games without leading scorer ShanQuan Hemphill, who was sidelined by a foot injury of his own. Darian DeVries’ team will wrap up the season with a two-game set at Bradley, and fans in Des Moines are holding out hope that Hemphill might return in time for the NCAA tournament if the team can get there. Drake is currently projected as a No. 11 seed, and sophomore Joseph Yesufu erupted for 68 points in the two games against Evansville.
With a hard-fought 56-53 win on the road against Davidson in their pocket, the Bonnies can envision finishing their abbreviated regular season at 14-3. Mark Schmidt’s team will wrap up the season at home against George Washington and Dayton. Wins in both games would give St. Bonaventure a shot at the top seed in the Atlantic 10 tournament and, more importantly, a NET ranking likely in the 30s. The Bonnies’ losses thus far have all come in true road games (at Rhode Island, Saint Louis and VCU), while the team has recorded victories over Richmond and VCU.
At 13-5 and 6-3 in the Atlantic 10, Richmond is confronting the possibility that its shortened and interrupted regular season might not give the team enough runway to punch a ticket for an at-large bid. Among the Spiders’ remaining scheduled opportunities, only the road game at Saint Louis holds the promise of significantly improving the team’s profile. Improvement is indeed required, for Richmond is landing on a good many “next four out” lists in various bracket projections. The Spiders might still have work to do when they enter the revamped A-10 tournament.
In the crowded bubble confines of the Mountain West, Colorado State has gone 1-1 against all three of the league’s other at-large hopefuls: Boise State, San Diego State and Utah State. So far, that track record and a NET ranking in the 40s has been sufficient for the Rams to be rewarded with either a projected spot among the last teams in the field or one amid the first teams outside it. If nothing else, this is one of the most accurate shooting offenses in the country, and CSU’s making all those shots without a single senior in the rotation. But can Niko Medved’s men hold that position when their remaining MWC schedule includes no further Quad 1 opportunities? We’re about to find out.
Even at this late date, the Billikens have played just eight conference games. Add in the fact that Saint Louis is 4-4 in A-10 play, and the challenge to this team’s postseason hopes becomes clear. Victories over LSU and St. Bonaventure are positives, certainly, but the limited number of games played by SLU also magnifies being swept by Dayton. To have any shot at all, Travis Ford’s team likely needs to win out (at home against Richmond and UMass) and hope to get another shot at highly ranked NET opponents like VCU or the Bonnies at the A-10 tournament.