We’ve spent most of the season talking about the gap between Gonzaga, Baylor and the rest of the country. Now there’s a second tier starting to develop behind the two favorites, a group that includes a trio of Big Ten teams: Michigan, Ohio State and Illinois.
Sunday’s game did nothing to change that thinking, despite the Wolverines beating the Buckeyes. Those three teams are 3-4-5 in the Power Rankings for the third straight week; they’re the top five teams in Joe Lunardi’s Bracketology and ESPN’s strength of record metric; and they all rank inside the top six in adjusted efficiency margin at KenPom.
Can anyone else crack the top-five party?
Alabama has been inconsistent offensively over the past month; Houston just lost to Wichita State and isn’t in first in the AAC; Villanova is only nine days removed from losing by 16 at Creighton; Virginia has lost two straight; and while I love Oklahoma‘s résumé, the efficiency metrics raise some questions. Maybe Florida State or Creighton or West Virginia can rise that high given the way they’re playing, but they haven’t been consistent.
For now, the best bet might be Iowa. The Hawkeyes are No. 3 in the BPI and No. 4 at KenPom, and they have the best offense in college basketball. Their defense leaves much to be desired, but it’s looked a bit stingier of late. Road trips at Michigan and Ohio State this week will be the determining factor.
Team of the Week: Michigan Wolverines
I was leaning toward giving this award to whichever team won Sunday’s game of the year, and Michigan’s performance in Columbus made it the obvious decision. The Wolverines were sensational against Ohio State, shooting better than 53% from the field and nearly 48% from 3-point range, and dominating the paint in the second half. Hunter Dickinson had his second consecutive dominant second-half performance, going for 16 points and five boards in the final 20 minutes one week after putting up six points and 11 rebounds after halftime against Wisconsin. Ohio State just didn’t have anyone to deal with Dickinson inside, and he simply wore the Buckeyes down.
It was a stark contrast to the first half, when Michigan shot the lights out from the perimeter, making 10 of 13 attempts from behind the arc. While Sunday’s win was worth this award on its own, Michigan also beat Rutgers earlier in the week, opening up a 17-point second-half lead before winning by seven.
This was the definition of a statement win for Michigan, a victory that keeps the Wolverines in their own category just behind Gonzaga and Baylor at the top of the rankings. It gives them a strong hold on the Big Ten regular-season title and a 1-seed come Selection Sunday. I also think it makes Juwan Howard the clear front-runner for National Coach of the Year.
Player of the Week: Noah Williams, Washington State Cougars
Williams made it easy this week after setting career highs in back-to-back wins over California and Stanford. He was terrific against the Golden Bears on Thursday, finishing with 32 points, 9 rebounds and 7 assists, shooting 12-for-20 from the field and 4-for-6 from 3-point range. He wasn’t as efficient on Saturday, but he led Washington State to a triple-overtime win over Stanford. Williams went for 40 points against the Cardinal, burying eight 3-pointers and grabbing five rebounds. He also picked up three steals in each of the two games.
Williams has been one of the breakout sophomores out west this season, doubling his scoring output from 6.2 points to 13.3 points and improving his 3-point shooting from 14.8% to 41.1%. Washington State is still probably a year or two away — Kyle Smith didn’t use a single senior in Saturday’s win — but Williams is a budding star in Pullman.
Win of the Week: Florida State Seminoles 81, Virginia Cavaliers 60
When Florida State hits on all cylinders, there aren’t many teams nationally that can hang with it. Last Monday was one of those games for the Seminoles. They blitzed Virginia from the opening tip, jumping out to a 30-11 lead in the first 13 minutes of the game and leading by as many as 23 points in the first half. Virginia cut it all the way down to seven in the first few minutes of the second half, but a 17-0 run midway through the period ended all hopes for the Cavaliers.
Florida State was terrific in all facets of the game, shooting 50% from the field and 54.2% from 3-point range — making 13 3-pointers in the process — and turning the ball over just five times. The Seminoles aren’t as elite defensively as they’ve been the past couple of seasons, but they have a ton of long, interchangeable pieces who can really cause issues when they start swarming to the ball and contesting everything inside the arc. Virginia turned it over on 21% of its possessions on Monday and had one of its least efficient performances of the season. The ACC title race is on.
Coach of the Week: Isaac Brown, Wichita State Shockers
It’s time to remove the interim tag. Wichita State was picked seventh in the American Athletic Conference back in the preseason, and at the time, Gregg Marshall was still the head coach. Marshall resigned shortly before the season following an internal investigation into allegations of physical and verbal abuse, and Brown was tabbed as the team’s interim head coach. Expectations weren’t overly high, and the prevailing thought in the industry was Wichita State would conduct a search to bring in a permanent head coach after the season.
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Wichita State guard Dexter Dennis pulls up from the logo and drains the 3-pointer.
That search can probably end now. Wichita State beat Houston 68-63 on Thursday to move into first place in the AAC standings, a win that also gave the Shockers some at-large hopes if they don’t win the conference tournament. They’ve won five in a row and 12 of their past 14 games, but knocking off the Cougars gives them a marquee win at the top of their résumé.
Three teams with questions
Tennessee Volunteers: The Volunteers are just 5-5 since opening the season with 10 wins in their first 11 games. Three days after scoring 93 points in a win over South Carolina, they put up 55 in a home loss to Kentucky on Saturday. What was once one of the nation’s most vaunted defenses has now allowed at least one point per possession in three of its past four games.
Minnesota Golden Gophers: Despite wins over Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan, the Gophers’ NCAA tournament hopes are in serious danger. They’ve now lost three in a row and are just 4-9 since beating Michigan State on Dec. 28 to improve to 9-1. And The Barn, where Minnesota looked unbeatable, has lost its mystique; Illinois beat the Gophers there on Saturday by 31.
St. John’s Red Storm: Mike Anderson was getting Coach of the Year buzz and St. John’s was in the mix for the NCAA tournament after beating Villanova and then winning at Providence earlier this month. However, the Red Storm lost at home to DePaul a week and a half after losing at Butler. That’s two bad losses on a résumé without a lot of heft at the top to make up for it.
Power Rankings
1. Gonzaga Bulldogs (22-0)
Previous ranking: 1
This week: vs. Santa Clara (Thursday), vs. Loyola Marymount (Saturday)
There’s not much left to write about Gonzaga, but one thing that jumped out this past week was the Bulldogs’ lack of reliance on the 3-point shot. They scored 106 points against San Diego State on Saturday but made only five 3-pointers. Earlier this season, the Zags scored 116 points against Portland with only four 3-pointers. It was the same drill against Northwestern State: 95 points, four 3s. Gonzaga ranks No. 328 nationally in percentage of points that come from 3-pointers. But it doesn’t matter, because Mark Few’s team is so dominant around the rim. According to ESPN Stats & Information research, Gonzaga scored 70 points in the paint against San Diego — the fourth time this season it has had 70 or more points in the paint. Every other Division I team in the country has combined to reach that threshold once.
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Corey Kispert leads all scorers with 20 points as No. 1 Gonzaga defeats Saint Mary’s 87-65.
2. Baylor Bears (17-0)
Previous ranking: 2
This week: vs. Iowa State (Tuesday), vs. West Virginia (Thursday), at Kansas (Saturday)
Baylor will finally return to action on Tuesday against Iowa State in what will be the Bears’ first game in three weeks because of COVID-19 issues. They were forced to postpone six straight games, including two games against West Virginia and battles against Oklahoma, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State and TCU. There’s no telling how the break might have affected Scott Drew’s team, and a recent study by college basketball analytics expert Evan Miyakawa showed that teams paused for 21 days are at a 2.6-point disadvantage on average. Fortunately for Baylor, its return comes against the worst team in the Big 12, the winless Cyclones.
3. Michigan Wolverines (16-1)
Previous ranking: 3
This week: vs. Iowa (Thursday), at Indiana (Saturday)
Recruiting is an inexact science in general, and recruiting transfers isn’t any easier because of how difficult it is to project how a player’s numbers might translate from one level to the next. That’s what makes Juwan Howard’s transfer duo of Mike Smith and Chaundee Brown so impressive. Smith was a ball-dominant scoring guard at Columbia, one of the highest-usage players in the country. He has transformed his game in Ann Arbor, going from averaging 22.8 points on 19.3 shots to averaging 8.4 points and 5.3 assists while taking 6.3 shots. Brown started 74 games in three seasons at Wake Forest; he has started just one at Michigan this season. But both players have bought into their new roles and are key reasons the Wolverines are a Final Four favorite. On Sunday against Ohio State, Smith had 11 points and seven assists, while Brown had 15 points and three 3-pointers off the bench.
4. Ohio State Buckeyes (18-5)
Previous ranking: 4
This week: at Michigan State (Thursday), vs. Iowa (Sunday)
Ohio State’s seven-game winning streak came to an end on Sunday thanks to an eye-popping offensive performance from Michigan — and a couple of late errors from the Buckeyes that allowed the Wolverines to close out the win. As usual, Chris Holtmann’s offense showed up, but the defense had trouble closing out on the perimeter in the first half and couldn’t handle Hunter Dickinson inside in the final 20 minutes. On a points-per-possession basis, it was Ohio State’s worst defensive effort of the season (although Michigan also had its worst defensive performance of the campaign). Is the interior defense something to watch moving forward? Looking at previous games, Luka Garza had 16 points on 13 shots; Kofi Cockburn had 15 points on 7-of-7 shooting and had 11 boards; Trayce Jackson-Davis had 23 points on 14 shots; and Trevion Williams went for 16 points. Second battles against Garza and Cockburn are still to come, too.
5. Illinois Fighting Illini (16-5)
Previous ranking: 5
This week: at Michigan State (Tuesday), vs. Nebraska (Thursday), at Wisconsin (Saturday)
Illinois put on a show offensively on Saturday in its 31-point road win at Minnesota, the Fighting Illini’s best offensive performance since a road win at Penn State back in December. They scored 1.27 points per possession, shot 57.7% from 2, shot 50% from 3 — and perhaps most impressively, had 27 assists on 37 made field goals. Their offense is rolling right now. Ayo Dosunmu continued his chase for the Wooden Award, finishing with 19 points, 10 rebounds and 10 assists for his second triple-double in Illinois’ past four games. Dosunmu wasn’t great against Northwestern on Tuesday, but he was exceptional when it mattered. He had five points in the first 35-plus minutes but scored eight points in the next three minutes — including a deep 3 from distance that helped the Fighting Illini escape with their seventh straight win.
6. Alabama Crimson Tide (18-5)
Previous ranking: 6
This week: at Arkansas (Wednesday), at Mississippi State (Saturday)
Alabama’s two biggest strengths for much of the season, 3-point shooting and defense, have been a bit inconsistent over the past few weeks, likely the reason the Crimson Tide suffered a pair of losses to Oklahoma and Missouri and struggled to put away two of the worst teams in the SEC in South Carolina and Vanderbilt. They’ve shot 36% or below from 3-point range in six of their past seven games after shooting 40% or better in six of seven previous games, while also allowing one point per possession or better in their past two games after going nine straight games without allowing anyone to hit that mark. On a positive note, Jordan Bruner returned for Alabama on Saturday after missing the previous nine games thanks to a knee injury; he scored only one point but grabbed six boards and immediately slotted back into the starting lineup.
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Alabama runs the inbounds play to perfection as big man Alex Reese rolls to the rim and crushes home the dunk.
7. Iowa Hawkeyes (17-6)
Previous ranking: 11
This week: at Michigan (Thursday), at Ohio State (Sunday)
Iowa has righted the ship since losing four of five in late January and early February, winning four games in a row with Sunday’s victory over Penn State. We mentioned it earlier, but the Hawkeyes’ defense has looked significantly better over the past few games. They haven’t allowed an opponent to hit 70 points since a loss to Ohio State on Feb. 4, and they’ve held four of their past five opponents to fewer than one point per possession. Sure, the level of competition matters, but Iowa has now played Indiana, Rutgers and Michigan State twice — and the Hawkeyes improved defensively in all three games. That defense will be put to the test this week, with road games at Michigan and Ohio State, two of the best offenses in college basketball. My money is on those two games being shootouts.
8. Villanova Wildcats (14-3)
Previous ranking: 10
This week: vs. St. John’s (Tuesday), at Butler (Sunday)
Villanova’s defense hasn’t been a strength for most of Big East play. Entering this past weekend, the Wildcats had allowed at least one point per possession in four of their past five games and six of their past eight — ranking near the bottom of the league in defensive efficiency. They were getting beaten off the dribble and lacked rim protectors. But on Saturday against UConn, Villanova locked in defensively, especially after halftime. The Huskies shot just 29.6% from the field and 25% from 3 in the second half, and the Wildcats held star guard James Bouknight to just 1-for-8 from the field in the final 20 minutes. Brandon Slater‘s length caused issues for Bouknight, and Villanova’s help defense and rotations were more cohesive. It was the Wildcats’ best defensive effort of the season by field goal percentage, and they allowed just 0.94 points per possession.
9. Oklahoma Sooners (14-5)
Previous ranking: 13
This week: at Kansas State (Tuesday), vs. Oklahoma State (Saturday)
The Sooners aren’t exactly blowing teams out, but they continue to move up the Big 12 standings, providing some separation between themselves and the rest of the non-Baylor pack in the league. They’ve won eight of their past nine games and face Kansas State this week followed by two games against Oklahoma State. Senior guard Austin Reaves has quickly rounded back into form since missing two games because of COVID-19 protocol. He missed games against Alabama and Texas Tech, but in his three games since returning, Reaves is averaging 21.3 points, 7.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists. His outside shooting isn’t what it was when he was at Wichita State to start his college career, but he has become a significantly better all-around player and one of the Big 12’s best playmakers.
10. West Virginia Mountaineers (15-6)
Previous ranking: 12
This week: at TCU (Tuesday), at Baylor (Thursday), vs. Kansas State (Saturday)
The Mountaineers have gone from a team looking to grind out wins with tough defense and elite offensive rebounding to one that can put up points with anybody in the country. They’re No. 9 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency and second in the Big 12 in points per possession and 3-point shooting, all while maintaining a high rate of offensive rebounds and free throw attempts. Deuce McBride is the offensive star, but junior guard Sean McNeil has been otherworldly from behind the arc lately. Over the past three games, McNeil is 13-for-20 from 3-point range and is now up to 44.3% in Big 12 play. He scored 16 second-half points as West Virginia came back from 19 points down to beat Texas in Austin.
11. Florida State Seminoles
Previous ranking: In the waiting room
This week: at Miami (Wednesday), at North Carolina (Saturday)
RaiQuan Gray‘s emergence as a versatile player — and the constant comparisons to Draymond Green — has been the biggest storyline of Florida State’s season thus far. Gray has come out of nowhere to become a consistent offensive weapon for the Seminoles. He averaged 3.9 points as a freshman and 6.0 as a sophomore, and was averaging 7.9 points through the first eight games this season. Since then, Gray has been awesome. Over the past eight games, he is putting up 16.4 points, 7.5 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.5 steals, shooting 58.8% from the field and 83.3% from the free throw line. Gray had his best game of the season last weekend against Wake Forest, then backed it up with 15 points and five boards in a blowout win against Virginia and 16 points and eight rebounds against Pittsburgh on Saturday.
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Pitt tries to capitalize off of a steal, but Florida State’s Scottie Barnes denies the Panthers a chance to score at the rim.
12. Houston Cougars (18-3)
Previous ranking: 7
This week: vs. Western Kentucky (Thursday), vs. South Florida (Sunday)
Houston, annually one of the stingiest defensive teams in the country, has had huge lapses at that end of the floor twice in a four-game stretch — not coincidentally resulting in two surprising losses to East Carolina and Wichita State. The Pirates and Shockers scored at least 1.15 points per possession, made double-digit 3-pointers and crashed the offensive glass for second-chance opportunities. Houston bounced back with a 38-point win over Cincinnati on Sunday, and getting Fabian White Jr. more minutes under his belt can only benefit the Cougars come March. White, who started 52 straight games entering this season, suffered a torn ACL last May and was expected to miss the entire season. But he returned for a few minutes against Wichita State and then had 10 points and nine boards against Cincinnati on Sunday. He can be a difference-maker for the Cougars.
13. Kansas Jayhawks (17-7)
Previous ranking: Unranked
This week: at Texas (Tuesday), vs. Baylor (Saturday)
Well, look who’s back. Bill Self’s Jayhawks have won five in a row since losing five out of seven and tumbling out of the rankings. Their latest victory was the most impressive, hanging on to beat Texas Tech in Lawrence on Saturday. The Jayhawks’ offense is still going through some ups and downs, but the defense is beginning to lock in. The usual caveats apply, since three of the five games came against Iowa State and Kansas State, but they held their past five opponents to fewer than one point per possession, with all five opponents shooting under 47% from 2 and 37% from 3. It’s quite a week to put their new defensive improvement to the test: The Jayhawks go to Austin on Tuesday and then host Baylor on Saturday.
14. Virginia Cavaliers (15-5)
Previous ranking: 8
This week: vs. NC State (Wednesday)
Virginia lost its grip on the ACC title race this past week, getting pummeled by Florida State on Monday and then falling in the final minute at Duke on Saturday. Late in the game against the Blue Devils, the Cavaliers’ lack of a legitimate go-to guy who could create his own shot in end-clock or end-game situations was evident. Kihei Clark is a crafty two-way guard, but consistently taking defenders off the bounce isn’t his game. There’s no Ty Jerome or Kyle Guy or De’Andre Hunter or, going back a few years, Malcolm Brogdon. Virginia’s defense also struggled this past week, allowing 147 points on 123 possessions over the two games. Florida State shot 54.2% from 3; Duke 60.7% from 2. There are some things for Tony Bennett to work out.
15. Creighton Bluejays (16-5)
Previous ranking: 15
This week: vs. DePaul (Wednesday), at Xavier (Saturday)
Creighton hasn’t played since beating Villanova by 16 two weekends ago — not COVID-related, just a quirk in the Bluejays’ schedule. Let’s take a look at Creighton’s defense while we have a break, though. This is the Bluejays’ best defensive team since Greg McDermott took over in Omaha in 2010. They’re ranked inside the top 45 in adjusted defensive efficiency at KenPom for the first time under McDermott, and they’re allowing fewer than one point per possession in Big East play — their lowest number under McDermott. Much of it comes down to their improved ability to contest inside the arc. Creighton ranks in the top 25 nationally in 2-point percentage defense and is blocking more than one shot more per game than last season. Much of that can be credited to 7-foot freshman Ryan Kalkbrenner, but Christian Bishop has also contributed at that end of the floor.
16. Texas Longhorns (13-6)
Previous ranking: 14
This week: at Oklahoma (Tuesday), at Iowa State (Thursday), vs. West Virginia (Saturday)
It can be argued whether Jericho Sims was fouled on the final shot attempt against West Virginia — and whether the shot could have occurred in 0.3 seconds — but the fact is the Longhorns let that game slip away. They scored 53 points and shot 70% from the field in the first half and led by 19 with 18 minutes left. Then the wheels came off. West Virginia got hot from 3 while Texas cooled off, and Courtney Ramey and Andrew Jones had to be separated in a team huddle. The Longhorns have now lost five of their past eight games, with the three wins coming over Kansas State (twice) and TCU. Shaka Smart needs to right the ship quickly with games against Kansas and Texas Tech coming up this week. The Big 12 isn’t forgiving for slumping teams.
Dropped out: Texas Tech (No. 13), USC (No. 16)
In the waiting room
Texas Tech Red Raiders: Chris Beard has to find a way to get Mac McClung and Terrence Shannon Jr. going again. McClung is shooting 35.8% from the field and 27.3% from 3 in his past four games. Shannon was bothered by an ankle injury a couple of games ago, but then was 3-for-14 from the field against West Virginia and had five points in 15 minutes in Saturday’s loss to Kansas.
USC Trojans: The Trojans’ seven-game winning streak ended Saturday night, falling at home to Arizona. It was only their second loss in 2021. They still have the inside track to a Pac-12 title with the head-to-head win over UCLA, but games this week against Oregon and Colorado require an immediate bounce-back.
Arkansas Razorbacks: Eric Musselman’s team has rattled off seven wins in a row in the SEC, and the Razorbacks have statement opportunities ahead of them this week: against Alabama on Wednesday and against LSU on Saturday. One thing to keep in mind about the Razorbacks’ record: They went 1-3 when Justin Smith was out injured. With a healthy Smith, they’re 16-2.